Mt An 5-2 (7-07) Sheep and Goats National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released July 20, 2007, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Sheep and Goats" call Scott Hollis at 202-720-4751, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. All Sheep and Lamb Inventory Down 1 Percent All sheep and lamb inventory in the United States on July 1, 2007 totaled 7.73 million head, down slightly from July 1, 2006, and 1 percent below July 1, 2005. Breeding sheep inventory at 4.61 million head on July 1, 2007 was down slightly from July 1, 2006. Market sheep and lambs (including newborn lambs), at 3.12 million head, were also down slightly from last July. The breeding herd consists of 3.76 million ewes one year old and older, 185,000 rams one year old and older, and 665,000 replacement lambs (including newborn lambs). Market lamb inventory at 3.06 million head was comprised of 1.81 million lambs under 65 pounds, 635,000 lambs 65-84 pounds, 360,000 lambs 85-105 pounds, and 250,000 lambs over 105 pounds. Market sheep inventory was 65,000 head. The 2007 lamb crop in the United States is expected to total 4.12 million head, up 1 percent from the 2006 lamb crop of 4.09 million head. Lambs born during January through June 2007 totaled 3.64 million head or 88 percent of the yearly total. An additional 480,000 head are expected to be born during the period July through December 2007. Region 3 (CO, MT, SD, UT, & WY) accounted for 34.5 percent of all sheep and lambs. Region 2 (NM & TX) accounted for 18.4 percent, Region 1 (AZ, CA, ID, NV, OR, & WA) for 16.3 percent, Region 4 (IA, KS, MN, MO, NE, ND, & OK) for 15.5 percent, and Region 5 (all other States) for 15.3 percent. Total Goat and Kid Inventory Up 4 Percent All goat inventory on July 1, 2007 totaled 3.60 million head, up 4 percent from the previous July. Breeding goat inventory totaled 2.69 million head, up 4 percent from July 2006. All market goats and kids totaled 905,000 head, up 2 percent from the previous July. On July 1, 2007 meat and all other goats totaled 3.00 million head, up 5 percent from July 2006. Milk goat inventory was also up 5 percent increasing to 335,000 head while angora goat numbers fell 9 percent to 260,000 head. The 2007 kid crop is expected to total 2.03 million head, up 6 percent from the 2006 kid crop of 1.92 million head. Contents Page All Sheep and Lambs Inventory, July 1, 2006-20071 Breeding Sheep and Lambs Inventory, July 1, 2006-20071 Market Sheep and Lambs Inventory, July 1, 2006-20073 Lamb Crop, 2007....................................... 4 Goats, Number by Class, July 1, 2006-20075 Reliability........................................... 6 Information Contacts.................................. 7 All Sheep and Lambs Inventory: By Region and United States, July 1, 2006-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : All Sheep : 2007 : Breeding Sheep : Market Sheep : and Lambs : as % : and Lambs : and Lambs Regions 1/ :------------------: of :---------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head Pct ------------ 1,000 Head ------------ : Region 1 : 1,280 1,260 98 800 785 480 475 : Region 2 : 1,470 1,420 97 980 950 490 470 : Region 3 : 2,650 2,670 101 1,460 1,470 1,190 1,200 : Region 4 : 1,200 1,200 100 665 665 535 535 : Region 5 : 1,170 1,180 101 730 740 440 440 : US : 7,770 7,730 99 4,635 4,610 3,135 3,120 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ States included in regions as follows: 1 - AZ, CA, ID, NV, OR, & WA; 2 - NM & TX; 3 - CO, MT, SD, UT, & WY; 4 - IA, KS, MN, MO, NE, ND, & OK; 5 - all other States. Breeding Sheep and Lambs Inventory: By Region and United States, July 1, 2006-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Breeding Sheep-One Year Old & Older : :Total Breeding :-------------------------------------: Replacement : Sheep and Regions 1/ : Ewes : Rams : Lambs : Lambs :------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : Region 1 : 680 670 30 30 90 85 800 785 : Region 2 : 805 780 45 40 130 130 980 950 : Region 3 : 1,220 1,230 40 40 200 200 1,460 1,470 : Region 4 : 535 535 30 35 100 95 665 665 : Region 5 : 540 545 40 40 150 155 730 740 : US : 3,780 3,760 185 185 670 665 4,635 4,610 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ States included in regions as follows: 1 - AZ, CA, ID, NV, OR, & WA; 2 - NM & TX; 3 - CO, MT, SD, UT, & WY; 4 - IA, KS, MN, MO, NE, ND, & OK; 5 - all other States. Market Sheep and Lambs Inventory: By Region and United States, July 1, 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Market Lambs : : :----------------------------------------------: : Market Regions 1/ : Under : 65 : 85 : Over : : Market : Sheep and : 65 : to : to : 105 : Total : Sheep : Lambs : Pounds : 84 lbs :105 lbs : Pounds : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : Region 1 : 145 150 120 50 465 10 475 : Region 2 : 320 100 25 15 460 10 470 : Region 3 : 830 155 90 110 1,185 15 1,200 : Region 4 : 240 140 85 55 520 15 535 : Region 5 : 275 90 40 20 425 15 440 : US : 1,810 635 360 250 3,055 65 3,120 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ States included in regions as follows: 1 - AZ, CA, ID, NV, OR, & WA; 2 - NM & TX; 3 - CO, MT, SD, UT, & WY; 4 - IA, KS, MN, MO, NE, ND, & OK; 5 - all other States. Market Sheep and Lambs Inventory: By Region and United States, July 1, 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Market Lambs : : :----------------------------------------------: : Market Regions 1/ : Under : 65 : 85 : Over : : Market : Sheep and : 65 : to : to : 105 : Total : Sheep : Lambs : Pounds : 84 lbs :105 lbs : Pounds : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : Region 1 : 140 140 125 60 465 15 480 : Region 2 : 330 105 20 15 470 20 490 : Region 3 : 810 155 95 110 1,170 20 1,190 : Region 4 : 240 140 85 55 520 15 535 : Region 5 : 275 90 45 20 430 10 440 : US : 1,795 630 370 260 3,055 80 3,135 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ States included in regions as follows: 1 - AZ, CA, ID, NV, OR, & WA; 2 - NM & TX; 3 - CO, MT, SD, UT, & WY; 4 - IA, KS, MN, MO, NE, ND, & OK; 5 - all other States. Lamb Crop: Per 100 Ewes 1+, Number by Region and United States, 2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Total : Breeding : Lambs per Regions : Lambs Born :Lambs Expected: Lamb : Ewes 1+ :100 Ewes 1+ 2/ : Jan-Jun 3/ : Jul-Dec 4/ : Crop : Jan 1 : Jan 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------------ 1,000 Head ------------------ Number : Region 1 : 550 190 740 717 103 : Region 2 : 530 120 650 765 85 : Region 3 : 1,280 20 1,300 1,101 118 : Region 4 : 620 60 680 502 135 : Region 5 : 660 90 750 621 121 : US : 3,640 480 4,120 3,706 111 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Lamb crop is lambs born in the Eastern States and lambs docked or branded in the Western States. 2/ States included in regions as follows: 1 - AZ, CA, ID, NV, OR, & WA; 2 - NM & TX; 3 - CO, MT, SD, UT, & WY; 4 - IA, KS, MN, MO, NE, ND, & OK; 5 - all other States. 3/ Lambs born alive between January 1, through June 30, 2007. 4/ Lambs expected to be born July through December 2007. Goats: Number by Class, United States, July 1, 2006-2007 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item : Total : Breeding : Market : Kid Crop1/ ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Head : 2006 : Angora : 285,000 225,000 60,000 130,000 Milk : 320,000 270,000 50,000 215,000 Meat : 2,860,000 2,080,000 780,000 1,573,000 All : 3,465,000 2,575,000 890,000 1,918,000 : 2007 : Angora : 260,000 205,000 55,000 120,000 Milk : 335,000 285,000 50,000 230,000 Meat : 3,000,000 2,200,000 800,000 1,680,000 All : 3,595,000 2,690,000 905,000 2,030,000 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Kid Crop for 2006 refers to the actual kids born during 2006. Kid Crop for 2007 is the kids born alive between January 1 and June 30, 2007 plus the kids expected to be born July through December 2007. Reliability of July 1 Sheep and Goats Estimates Survey Procedures: A random sample of U.S. producers was surveyed to provide data for these estimates. Survey procedures ensured that all sheep and goat producers, regardless of size, had a chance to be included in the survey. Data were collected during the first half of June from about 39,000 operations. These operators were contacted by face-to-face personal interviews. About 4,700 producers and feedlots were contacted during the first half of July by mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews. Operators were asked to report inventories as of the first of the month and lamb crop for the entire year of 2007. Estimation Procedures: These sheep and goat estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board. National and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness and with estimates from past years. A projected balance sheet for calendar year 2007 was also used. The balance sheet begins with the previous inventory estimate, adds estimates of births and imports, and subtracts estimates of slaughter, exports and deaths. This indicated ending inventory level is compared with the Agricultural Statistics Board estimate for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve the current estimate. Previous year estimates are subject to revision when current estimates are made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Department of Agriculture's five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations raising sheep and goats are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors, such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for lamb crop in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between the first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for lamb crop estimates over the past 10 years is 2.8 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 4.12 million head by more than 2.8 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 5.1 percent. Also shown in the table is a 10-year record showing the range between the first inventory estimate and the latest estimate. Estimate changes for Lamb Crop between the first inventory estimate and the latest estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 82,200 head, ranging from 4,000 to 406,000 head. The initial inventory estimate of Lamb Crop has been below the latest estimate 9 times and above the latest estimate 1 time in the last 10 years. Reliability of U.S. July 1 Sheep and Lamb Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90% : Difference Between : : : Confidence : First and Final : Number of : Root : Level : Estimates : Years Item : Mean :--------------------------------------------------------- : Square : : : : : : First : First : Error :Percent: Head :Average:Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : Lamb Crop : 2.8 5.1 210 82 4 406 1 9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on data for the past 10 years. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch................................(202) 720-3570 Shawn Clark, Head, Livestock Section..................................(202) 720-3570 Bruce Boess - Hogs and Pigs......................................(202) 720-3106 Shawn Clark - Dairy Products.....................................(202) 690-3236 Jason Hardegree - Milk Production and Milk Cows..................(202) 720-3278 Scott Hollis - Sheep & Lambs, Goats & Kids.......................(202) 720-4751 Mike Miller - Cattle, Cattle on Feed.............................(202) 720-3040 Benita Hodge - Livestock Slaughter...............................(515) 284-4340 Charmaine Wilson - Dairy Products Prices.........................(202) 690-2168 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. 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