Mt An 5-2 (1-04)a Sheep and Goats National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released January 30, 2004, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Sheep and Goats" call Scott Hollis at 202-720-4751, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX Update Alert Page 10, Oregon was inadvertently excluded from U.S. Value of Wool Production; thereby constituting a change to U.S. Wool price per pound. XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX Total Sheep and Lamb Inventory Down 3 Percent All sheep and lamb inventory in the United States on January 1, 2004, totaled 6.09 million head, down 3 percent from 2003 and 9 percent below two years ago. The inventory has trended downward since peaking at 56.2 million head in 1942. Breeding sheep inventory declined to 4.48 million head on January 1, 2004, down 4 percent from 4.66 million head on January 1, 2003. Ewes one year old and older, at 3.60 million head, were 4 percent below last year. Market sheep and lambs on January 1, 2004, totaled 1.61 million head, down 2 percent from January 1, 2003. Market lambs comprised 96 percent of the total. Twenty-seven percent were lambs under 65 pounds, 16 percent were 65 - 84 pounds, 23 percent 85 - 105 pounds, 30 percent were over 105 pounds, and 4 percent were market sheep. The 2003 lamb crop of 4.12 million head was down 5 percent from 2002 and established a new record low. The 2003 lambing rate was 109 lambs per 100 ewes one year old and older on January 1, 2003, unchanged from 2002. Shorn wool production in the United States during 2003 was 38.1 million pounds, down 8 percent from 2002. Sheep and lambs shorn totaled 5.06 million head, down 8 percent from 2002. The average price paid for wool sold in 2003 was $0.72 per pound for a total value of $27.4 million dollars, up 25 percent from $21.9 million dollars in 2002. All goat inventory in Texas on January 1, 2004 totaled 1.2 million head, unchanged from 2003 and 4 percent below two years ago. Mohair production in the three major producing states (Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas) during 2003 was 1.88 million pounds, down 14 percent from 2002. Goats and kids clipped, at 248,000 head, were down 12 percent from 2002. Average weight per clip was 7.6 pounds compared with 7.7 pounds a year earlier. Value of mohair was $3.1 million dollars, down 9 percent from 2002. Special Note Preliminary 2002 Census data were used in the review process for the 2004 and revised 2003 estimates included in this publication. Although no significant revisions were made to the U.S. level estimates, States requiring 5-year historical revisions may carry a disjointed data series from their current historical data series until the release of the 5-year Final Estimates publications which are scheduled for April 30, 2004. Sheep and Lambs: Number by Class, United States, January 1, 2002-2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : :2004 as % Class : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 : of 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----------- 1,000 head ---------- Percent : All Sheep and Lambs : 6,685 6,300 6,090 97 Market : 1,772 1,642 1,610 98 Breeding Sheep and Lambs : 4,913 4,658 4,480 96 Replacement Lambs - : Under One Year Old : 734 695 691 99 Ewes - One Year Old : and Older : 3,980 3,770 3,601 96 Rams - One Year Old : and Older : 200 193 189 98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. Wool: Production, Price, and Value, United States, 2001-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Sheep : Weight : Shorn : Price : Year : Shorn : per : Wool : per : Value : 1/ : Fleece : Production : Pound : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head Pounds 1,000 Pounds Dollars 1,000 Dollars : 2001 : 5,689 7.56 43,016 0.36 15,311 2002 : 5,476 7.55 41,322 0.53 21,876 2003 : 5,057 7.54 38,114 0.72 27,408 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes shearing at commercial feeding yards. All Sheep and Lambs: Number by Class, State, and United States, January 1, 2003-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : All Sheep and Lambs : Total Breeding : Total Market State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : : :2004 as %: : : : : 2003 : 2004 : of 2003 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --- 1,000 Head --- Percent ------------- 1,000 Head ------------ : AZ : 115.0 114.0 99 57.0 57.0 58.0 57.0 CA : 730.0 680.0 93 350.0 325.0 380.0 355.0 CO : 380.0 360.0 95 185.0 170.0 195.0 190.0 ID : 260.0 260.0 100 225.0 225.0 35.0 35.0 IL : 68.0 63.0 93 56.0 53.0 12.0 10.0 IN : 50.0 45.0 90 45.0 40.0 5.0 5.0 IA : 255.0 250.0 98 175.0 180.0 80.0 70.0 KS : 90.0 100.0 111 56.0 64.0 34.0 36.0 MI : 85.0 83.0 98 63.0 59.0 22.0 24.0 MN : 145.0 140.0 97 105.0 100.0 40.0 40.0 MO : 67.0 60.0 90 60.0 54.0 7.0 6.0 MT : 310.0 300.0 97 280.0 280.0 30.0 20.0 NE : 97.0 102.0 105 77.0 81.0 20.0 21.0 NV : 80.0 75.0 94 70.0 64.0 10.0 11.0 N ENG 1/: 47.0 43.0 91 40.0 37.0 7.0 6.0 NM : 175.0 160.0 91 140.0 133.0 35.0 27.0 NY : 72.0 70.0 97 55.0 54.0 17.0 16.0 ND : 115.0 97.0 84 84.0 71.0 31.0 26.0 OH : 150.0 140.0 93 125.0 119.0 25.0 21.0 OK : 75.0 70.0 93 60.0 55.0 15.0 15.0 OR : 235.0 215.0 91 157.0 145.0 78.0 70.0 PA : 95.0 85.0 89 82.0 71.0 13.0 14.0 SD : 380.0 370.0 97 315.0 290.0 65.0 80.0 TX : 1,040.0 1,100.0 106 820.0 840.0 220.0 260.0 UT : 310.0 265.0 85 280.0 235.0 30.0 30.0 VA : 62.0 55.0 89 48.0 43.0 14.0 12.0 WA : 55.0 46.0 84 46.0 40.0 9.0 6.0 WV : 34.0 34.0 100 29.0 30.0 5.0 4.0 WI : 83.0 83.0 100 68.0 68.0 15.0 15.0 WY : 460.0 430.0 93 360.0 340.0 100.0 90.0 : Oth : Sts 2/ : 180.0 195.0 108 145.0 157.0 35.0 38.0 : US : 6,300.0 6,090.0 97 4,658.0 4,480.0 1,642.0 1,610.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ N ENG includes CT, ME, MA, NH, RI, and VT. 2/ Other States include AL, AK, AR, DE, FL, GA, HI, KY, LA, MD, MS, NJ, NC, SC, and TN. Breeding Sheep and Lambs: Number by Class, State, and United States, January 1, 2003-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Breeding Sheep-One Year Old & Older: : Total Breeding :-----------------------------------: Replacement : Sheep and State : Ewes : Rams : Lambs : Lambs :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : AZ : 49.0 48.0 3.0 3.0 5.0 6.0 57.0 57.0 CA : 290.0 275.0 10.0 10.0 50.0 40.0 350.0 325.0 CO : 155.0 139.0 6.0 5.0 24.0 26.0 185.0 170.0 ID : 184.0 184.0 5.0 5.0 36.0 36.0 225.0 225.0 IL : 42.0 40.0 3.0 3.0 11.0 10.0 56.0 53.0 IN : 34.0 30.0 2.5 3.0 8.5 7.0 45.0 40.0 IA : 140.0 147.0 7.0 7.0 28.0 26.0 175.0 180.0 KS : 47.0 53.0 2.5 2.5 6.5 8.5 56.0 64.0 MI : 48.0 43.0 3.0 3.0 12.0 13.0 63.0 59.0 MN : 85.0 80.0 5.0 5.0 15.0 15.0 105.0 100.0 MO : 48.0 45.0 3.0 2.5 9.0 6.5 60.0 54.0 MT : 220.0 220.0 8.0 7.0 52.0 53.0 280.0 280.0 NE : 63.0 67.0 3.0 4.0 11.0 10.0 77.0 81.0 NV : 55.0 52.0 2.0 2.0 13.0 10.0 70.0 64.0 N ENG 1/: 29.0 28.0 3.0 2.0 8.0 7.0 40.0 37.0 NM : 115.0 108.0 7.0 7.0 18.0 18.0 140.0 133.0 NY : 42.0 41.0 3.0 3.0 10.0 10.0 55.0 54.0 ND : 71.0 57.0 2.5 2.0 10.5 12.0 84.0 71.0 OH : 97.0 94.0 6.0 5.0 22.0 20.0 125.0 119.0 OK : 48.0 43.0 3.0 3.0 9.0 9.0 60.0 55.0 OR : 125.0 112.0 7.0 7.0 25.0 26.0 157.0 145.0 PA : 64.0 55.0 6.0 5.0 12.0 11.0 82.0 71.0 SD : 265.0 240.0 10.0 9.0 40.0 41.0 315.0 290.0 TX : 660.0 675.0 40.0 45.0 120.0 120.0 820.0 840.0 UT : 240.0 195.0 9.0 7.0 31.0 33.0 280.0 235.0 VA : 38.0 34.0 3.5 2.5 6.5 6.5 48.0 43.0 WA : 37.0 32.0 2.0 2.0 7.0 6.0 46.0 40.0 WV : 23.0 25.0 1.0 1.0 5.0 4.0 29.0 30.0 WI : 53.0 52.0 3.0 3.0 12.0 13.0 68.0 68.0 WY : 295.0 270.0 10.0 9.0 55.0 61.0 360.0 340.0 : Oth : Sts 2/ : 108.0 117.0 14.0 14.0 23.0 26.0 145.0 157.0 : US :3,770.0 3,601.0 193.0 188.5 695.0 690.5 4,658.0 4,480.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ N ENG includes CT, ME, MA, NH, RI, and VT. 2/ Other States include AL, AK, AR, DE, FL, GA, HI, KY, LA, MD, MS, NJ, NC, SC, and TN. Lamb Crop: Per 100 Ewes 1+, Number and Percent of Previous Year, by State, and United States, 2002-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Breeding Ewes 1 Year : Lambs per 100 : : & Older Jan 1 : Ewes 1+ Jan 1 : Lamb Crop 1/ State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : :2003 as % : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : of 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --- 1,000 Head --- -- Percent -- --- 1,000 Head -- Percent : AZ : 57.0 49.0 60 69 34.0 34.0 100 CA : 310.0 290.0 90 90 280.0 260.0 93 CO : 170.0 155.0 118 116 200.0 180.0 90 ID : 184.0 184.0 130 130 240.0 240.0 100 IL : 44.0 42.0 134 136 59.0 57.0 97 IN : 39.0 34.0 121 118 47.0 40.0 85 IA : 142.0 140.0 151 157 215.0 220.0 102 KS : 53.0 47.0 117 140 62.0 66.0 106 MI : 40.0 48.0 150 125 60.0 60.0 100 MN : 95.0 85.0 153 159 145.0 135.0 93 MO : 46.0 48.0 130 115 60.0 55.0 92 MT : 232.0 220.0 127 127 295.0 280.0 95 NE : 58.0 63.0 145 140 84.0 88.0 105 NV : 69.0 55.0 90 109 62.0 60.0 97 N ENG 2/: 32.0 29.0 119 117 38.0 34.0 89 NM : 150.0 115.0 67 86 100.0 99.0 99 NY : 40.0 42.0 128 121 51.0 51.0 100 ND : 85.0 71.0 118 113 100.0 80.0 80 OH : 93.0 97.0 145 135 135.0 131.0 97 OK : 36.0 48.0 144 100 52.0 48.0 92 OR : 134.0 125.0 112 112 150.0 140.0 93 PA : 55.0 64.0 153 130 84.0 83.0 99 SD : 265.0 265.0 123 113 325.0 300.0 92 TX : 720.0 660.0 75 79 540.0 520.0 96 UT : 275.0 240.0 100 100 275.0 240.0 87 VA : 37.0 38.0 149 113 55.0 43.0 78 WA : 36.0 37.0 164 149 59.0 55.0 93 WV : 24.0 23.0 138 143 33.0 33.0 100 WI : 52.0 53.0 140 140 73.0 74.0 101 WY : 320.0 295.0 106 105 340.0 310.0 91 : Oth : Sts 3/ : 87.0 108.0 120 96 104.0 104.0 100 : US : 3,980.0 3,770.0 109 109 4,357.0 4,120.0 95 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Lamb crop is defined as lambs born in the Eastern States and lambs docked or branded in the Western States. 2/ N ENG includes CT, ME, MA, NH, RI, and VT. 3/ Other States include AL, AK, AR, DE, FL, GA, HI, KY, LA, MD, MS, NJ, NC, SC, and TN. Market Sheep and Lambs: Number by Weight Group, State, and United States, January 1, 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Market Lambs : : :-------------------------------------------------: : Total State : Under : 65 to : 85 to : Over : : Market : Market : 65 : 84 : 105 : 105 : Total : Sheep :Sheep and : Pounds : Pounds : Pounds : Pounds : : : Lambs -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : AZ : 11.0 16.0 17.0 12.0 56.0 2.0 58.0 CA : 150.0 80.0 95.0 45.0 370.0 10.0 380.0 CO : 2.0 5.0 32.0 155.0 194.0 1.0 195.0 ID : 11.0 2.0 6.0 14.0 33.0 2.0 35.0 IL : 5.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 11.0 1.0 12.0 IN : 1.1 0.9 1.8 0.9 4.7 0.3 5.0 IA : 9.0 7.0 20.0 41.0 77.0 3.0 80.0 KS : 14.5 3.5 6.5 6.5 31.0 3.0 34.0 MI : 3.0 3.0 6.0 9.0 21.0 1.0 22.0 MN : 9.0 8.0 11.0 11.0 39.0 1.0 40.0 MO : 2.0 1.0 2.0 1.5 6.5 0.5 7.0 MT : 2.0 6.0 17.0 4.0 29.0 1.0 30.0 NE : 3.0 2.0 4.0 10.0 19.0 1.0 20.0 NV : 1.0 3.0 5.0 9.0 1.0 10.0 N ENG 1/: 2.2 1.6 1.2 0.5 5.5 1.5 7.0 NM : 9.0 11.0 11.0 2.0 33.0 2.0 35.0 NY : 10.0 4.0 1.0 1.0 16.0 1.0 17.0 ND : 2.5 4.5 11.5 11.5 30.0 1.0 31.0 OH : 10.0 7.0 5.0 2.0 24.0 1.0 25.0 OK : 6.0 3.0 2.0 3.0 14.0 1.0 15.0 OR : 12.0 14.0 29.0 21.0 76.0 2.0 78.0 PA : 6.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 11.0 2.0 13.0 SD : 4.0 7.0 17.0 33.0 61.0 4.0 65.0 TX : 130.0 40.0 25.0 15.0 210.0 10.0 220.0 UT : 0.2 0.3 7.5 21.0 29.0 1.0 30.0 VA : 4.5 3.5 3.5 1.5 13.0 1.0 14.0 WA : 1.0 2.5 2.0 3.0 8.5 0.5 9.0 WV : 2.0 0.5 1.0 0.5 4.0 1.0 5.0 WI : 2.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 14.0 1.0 15.0 WY : 2.0 17.0 43.0 36.0 98.0 2.0 100.0 : Oth : Sts 2/ : 15.0 6.0 4.0 3.0 28.0 7.0 35.0 : US : 441.0 266.3 393.0 474.9 1,575.2 66.8 1,642.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ N ENG includes CT, ME, MA, NH, RI, and VT. 2/ Other States include AL, AK, AR, DE, FL, GA, HI, KY, LA, MD, MS, NJ, NC, SC, and TN. Market Sheep and Lambs: Number by Weight Group, State, and United States, January 1, 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Market Lambs : : :-------------------------------------------------: : Total State : Under : 65 to : 85 to : Over : : Market : Market : 65 : 84 : 105 : 105 : Total : Sheep :Sheep and : Pounds : Pounds : Pounds : Pounds : : : Lambs -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : AZ : 11.0 15.0 16.0 13.0 55.0 2.0 57.0 CA : 145.0 70.0 95.0 35.0 345.0 10.0 355.0 CO : 2.0 4.0 18.0 165.0 189.0 1.0 190.0 ID : 11.0 1.0 8.0 14.0 34.0 1.0 35.0 IL : 4.0 1.0 1.0 3.0 9.0 1.0 10.0 IN : 2.0 0.4 1.4 0.7 4.5 0.5 5.0 IA : 8.0 10.0 28.0 22.0 68.0 2.0 70.0 KS : 17.0 3.0 5.5 7.5 33.0 3.0 36.0 MI : 5.0 4.0 4.0 9.0 22.0 2.0 24.0 MN : 8.0 10.0 12.0 9.0 39.0 1.0 40.0 MO : 1.0 1.0 2.0 1.5 5.5 0.5 6.0 MT : 1.0 4.0 8.0 5.0 18.0 2.0 20.0 NE : 4.0 2.0 4.0 10.0 20.0 1.0 21.0 NV : 1.0 2.0 7.0 10.0 1.0 11.0 N ENG 1/: 1.9 1.1 1.1 0.4 4.5 1.5 6.0 NM : 6.0 8.0 8.0 3.0 25.0 2.0 27.0 NY : 10.0 3.0 1.0 1.0 15.0 1.0 16.0 ND : 3.0 4.0 11.0 7.0 25.0 1.0 26.0 OH : 5.0 7.0 4.0 4.0 20.0 1.0 21.0 OK : 8.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 14.0 1.0 15.0 OR : 11.0 12.0 26.0 20.0 69.0 1.0 70.0 PA : 7.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 12.0 2.0 14.0 SD : 4.0 4.0 20.0 51.0 79.0 1.0 80.0 TX : 130.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 250.0 10.0 260.0 UT : 2.0 2.0 6.0 15.0 25.0 5.0 30.0 VA : 4.0 3.0 2.5 1.5 11.0 1.0 12.0 WA : 0.6 1.5 0.9 2.7 5.7 0.3 6.0 WV : 1.5 0.5 1.0 0.5 3.5 0.5 4.0 WI : 2.0 4.0 4.0 3.0 13.0 2.0 15.0 WY : 2.0 18.0 29.0 40.0 89.0 1.0 90.0 : Oth : Sts 2/ : 16.0 7.0 4.0 3.0 30.0 8.0 38.0 : US : 433.0 255.5 367.4 486.8 1,542.7 67.3 1,610.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ N ENG includes CT, ME, MA, NH, RI, and VT. 2/ Other States include AL, AK, AR, DE, FL, GA, HI, KY, LA, MD, MS, NJ, NC, SC, and TN. Wool: Number of Sheep and Lambs Shorn, Weight per Fleece, and Production by State, and United States, 2002-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Sheep Shorn : Weight per Fleece : Production State :----------------------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --- 1,000 Head --- --- Pounds --- 1,000 Pounds : AZ : 109.0 102.0 6.1 6.1 660 620 CA : 510.0 500.0 7.1 7.0 3,600 3,500 CO : 460.0 360.0 6.7 7.2 3,070 2,580 ID : 217.0 217.0 9.7 9.7 2,115 2,115 IL : 65.0 58.0 6.6 6.8 430 395 IN : 42.0 40.0 6.7 6.8 280 270 IA : 220.0 240.0 5.9 5.7 1,300 1,360 KS : 73.0 80.0 7.2 7.0 525 560 MI : 78.0 77.0 6.1 6.2 475 475 MN : 150.0 140.0 6.8 6.8 1,020 950 MO : 59.0 53.0 6.7 7.0 395 370 MT : 289.0 272.0 9.6 9.5 2,788 2,597 NE : 87.0 88.0 7.4 7.2 640 630 NV : 65.0 55.0 9.1 8.4 590 460 N ENG 1/ : 40.0 37.0 7.1 7.0 283 260 NM : 175.0 160.0 8.1 7.8 1,410 1,240 NY : 51.0 48.0 6.9 6.7 350 320 ND : 93.0 70.0 8.5 9.3 790 650 OH : 155.0 144.0 7.1 6.4 1,100 920 OK : 60.0 50.0 6.8 6.3 410 315 OR : 200.0 178.0 6.3 6.8 1,250 1,210 PA : 63.0 61.0 6.8 6.7 430 410 SD : 375.0 330.0 8.3 8.0 3,105 2,625 TX : 850.0 800.0 7.0 7.0 5,950 5,600 UT : 280.0 240.0 9.5 9.3 2,650 2,230 VA : 40.0 36.0 6.4 6.1 255 220 WA : 44.0 36.0 8.1 8.1 357 292 WV : 28.0 28.0 6.2 5.7 174 160 WI : 67.0 67.0 7.2 7.2 480 480 WY : 420.0 390.0 8.9 9.4 3,750 3,650 : Oth Sts 2/ : 111.0 100.0 6.2 6.5 690 650 : US : 5,476.0 5,057.0 7.5 7.5 41,322 38,114 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ N ENG includes CT, ME, MA, NH, RI, and VT. 2/ Other States include AL, AK, AR, DE, FL, GA, HI, KY, LA, MD, MS, NJ, NC, SC, and TN. Wool: Price and Value by State and United States, 2002-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Price per Pound : Value 1/ State :--------------------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ Dollars ----- ---- 1,000 Dollars --- : AZ : 0.32 0.34 211 211 CA : 0.45 0.79 1,620 2,765 CO : 0.57 0.74 1,750 1,909 ID : 0.67 0.86 1,417 1,819 IL : 0.23 0.23 99 91 IN : 0.16 0.19 45 51 IA : 0.18 0.29 234 394 KS : 0.30 0.45 158 252 MI : 0.14 0.30 67 143 MN : 0.20 0.30 204 285 MO : 0.20 0.42 79 155 MT : 0.76 1.03 2,119 2,675 NE : 0.30 0.35 192 221 NV : 0.85 0.95 502 437 N ENG 2/ : 0.40 0.35 113 91 NM : 0.80 1.10 1,128 1,364 NY : 0.20 0.27 70 86 ND : 0.60 0.60 474 390 OH : 0.15 0.23 165 212 OK : 0.25 0.40 103 126 OR : 0.38 0.58 475 702 PA : 0.25 0.27 108 111 SD : 0.45 0.76 1,397 1,995 TX : 0.68 0.90 4,046 5,040 UT : 0.60 0.80 1,590 1,784 VA : 0.26 0.33 66 73 WA : 0.47 0.63 168 184 WV : 0.22 0.28 38 45 WI : 0.15 0.25 72 120 WY : 0.73 1.10 2,738 4,015 : Oth Sts 3/ : 0.62 0.56 428 364 : US : 0.53 0.74 21,876 28,110 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production multiplied by marketing year average price. U.S. value is summation of State values. 2/ N ENG includes CT, ME, MA, NH, RI, and VT. 3/ Other States include AL, AK, AR, DE, FL, GA, HI, KY, LA, MD, MS, NJ, NC, SC, and TN. Goats: Inventory, Selected States, and Total, January 1, 2003-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Angora : All Goats State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : AZ : 30 30 NM : 15 10 TX : 240 220 1,200 1,200 : 3 Sts : 285 260 1,200 1,200 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mohair: Production, Price, and Value by Selected States and 3-State Total, 2002-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Average : : : : Goats : Clip : : Price : : Clipped : per : Production : per : Value 1/ State : : Goat : : Pound : :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head Pounds 1,000 Pounds Dollars 1,000 Dollars : AZ : 28 28 5.0 5.0 140 140 1.40 1.40 196 196 NM : 15 10 6.0 6.0 90 60 1.40 1.25 126 75 TX : 240 210 8.1 8.0 1,944 1,680 1.60 1.70 3,110 2,856 : 3 Sts : 283 248 7.7 7.6 2,174 1,880 1.58 1.66 3,432 3,127 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production multiplied by marketing year average price for individual States. Three-State value is summation of State values. Reliability of January 1 Sheep and Goat Estimates Survey Procedures: A random sample of U.S. producers was surveyed to provide data for these estimates. Survey procedures ensured that all sheep and goat producers, regardless of size, had a chance to be included in the survey. Large producers were sampled more heavily than small operations. About 13,000 operators were contacted during the first half of January by mail, telephone and face-to-face personal interview and 85 percent of the reports were usable. Regardless of when operators responded, they were asked to report inventories as of January 1. Estimation Procedures: These sheep and goat estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board. National and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness and with estimates from past years. A projected balance sheet for calendar year 2003 was also used. The balance sheet begins with the previous inventory estimate, adds estimates of births and imports, and subtracts estimates of slaughter, exports and deaths. This indicated ending inventory level is compared with the Agricultural Statistics Board estimate for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve the current estimate. Previous year estimates are subject to revision when current estimates are made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Department of Agriculture's five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations raising sheep and goats are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors, such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected sheep items in the table below. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between the first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for sheep and lamb inventory estimates over the past 10 years is 1.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 6.09 million head by more than 1.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.0 percent. The "Root Mean Square Error" for sheep shorn over the past 10 years is 0.6 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 5.1 million head by more than 0.6 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 1.0 percent. Also shown in the table is a 10-year record showing the range between the first inventory estimate and the latest estimate. Using estimates for All Sheep and Lambs as an example, changes between the first inventory estimate and the latest estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 64,000 head, ranging from 0 to 209,000 head. The initial inventory estimate of All Sheep and Lambs has been below the latest estimate 7 times and above the latest estimate 2 times in the last 10 years. For Sheep and Lambs Shorn, changes between the first inventory estimate and the latest estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 30,000 head, ranging from 0 to 72,000 head. The initial inventory estimate of Sheep and Lambs Shorn has been below the latest estimate 6 times and above 3 times in the last 10 years. Reliability of U.S. January 1 Sheep and Lamb Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90% : Difference Between : : : Confidence : First and Final : Number of : Root : Level : Estimates 1/ : Years Item : Mean :--------------------------------------------------------- : Square : : : : : : First : First : Error :Percent: (000) :Average:Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : Head : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent --------- 1,000 Head --------- Number : All Sheep & : Lambs : 1.1 2.0 121.8 64 0 209 2 7 : Breeding : Sheep : 0.7 1.4 62.7 31 0 78 3 6 : Lamb : Crop : 1.0 1.8 74.2 36 0 112 2 6 : Sheep : Shorn : 0.6 1.0 50.6 30 0 72 3 6 : : Percent -------- 1,000 Pounds -------- Number : Wool : Prod : 0.4 0.7 266.8 154 0 510 4 5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on data for the past 10 years. Index Page All Sheep and Lambs: Number by Class, United States, January 1.. . . . . . .2 Number by Class, State, and United States, January 1. .4 Breeding Sheep and Lambs: Number by Class, State, and United States, January 1. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 Goats: Inventory, Selected States and Total, January 1 . . 11 Lamb Crop: Per 100 Ewes 1+, Number and Percent of Previous Year, by State, and United States, January 1. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 Market Sheep and Lambs: Number by Weight Group, State, and United States, January 1, 2003 . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 Market Sheep and Lambs: Number by Weight Group, State, and United States, January 1, 2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . .8 Mohair: Production, Price, and Value by Selected States, and 3-State Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Reliability of U.S. January 1 Sheep and Lamb Estimates (RMSE)12 Wool: Number of Sheep and Lambs Shorn, Weight per Fleece, and Production by State, and United States.. . . . . . . . .9 Wool: Price and Value by State and United States. . . . . 10 Wool: Production, Price and Value, United States. . . . . .3 The next "Sheep and Goats" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on July 24, 2004. 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