Sheep and Goats National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released January 30, 1998, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Sheep and Goats" call James Hand at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. Total Sheep and Lamb Inventory Down 4 Percent All sheep and lamb inventory in the United States on January 1, 1998, totaled 7.62 million head, down 4 percent from 1997 and 10 percent below two years ago. Inventory has slowly declined since 1942 when all sheep and lambs reached it's peak of 56.2 million head. Breeding sheep inventory declined to 5.54 million head on January 1, 1998, down 5 percent from January 1, 1997's 5.85 million head. Ewes one year old and older, at 4.53 million head, were 6 percent below last year. Market sheep and lambs on January 1, 1998, totaled 2.08 million head, down slightly from January 1, 1997. Market lambs comprised 96 percent of the total. Twenty-three percent were lambs under 65 pounds, 15 percent were 65 - 84 pounds, 30 percent 85 - 105 pounds, 28 percent were over 105 pounds, and 4 percent were market sheep. The 1997 lamb crop of 5.24 million head was down 1 percent from 1996. This compares with the previous record low of 5.28 million head set a year ago. The 1997 lambing rate was 108 per 100 ewes one year old and older on January 1, 1997, compared with 103 in 1996. The number of operations with sheep during 1997 totaled 74,710, down 4 percent from 1996 and 8 percent from 1995. ************* NOTICE NASS will discontinue the April and November Quarterly Sheep estimates beginning this year (1998). The July report will be continued. Sheep and Lambs: Number by Class, United States January 1, 1996-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : 98 as % Class : 1996 : 1997 : 1998 : of 97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----------- 1,000 head ---------- Percent : All Sheep and Lambs : 8,461 7,937 7,616 96 Market : 2,234 2,087 2,079 100 Breeding Sheep and Lambs : 6,228 5,850 5,537 95 Replacement Lambs - : Under One Year Old : 863 794 804 101 Ewes - One Year Old : and Older : 5,128 4,836 4,527 94 Rams - One Year Old : and Older : 236 220 206 94 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- All Sheep and Lambs: Balance Sheet, United States, 1995-97 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item : 1995 : 1996 : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head : Jan 1 Inventory : 8,886 8,461 7,937 Lamb Crop and Imports : 5,648 5,328 5,295 Total Supply : 14,534 13,789 13,232 : Slaughter : 4,628 4,249 3,861 Deaths and Exports : 1,179 1,239 2,085 Total Disappearance : 5,807 5,488 5,946 : Residual : -266 -364 330 : Jan 1 Inventory : 8,461 7,937 7,616 (End of year) : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final 1996 and preliminary 1997 estimates will be published in "Meat Animals, Production, Disposition, and Income", April 24, 1998. Lamb Crop: Per 100 Ewes 1+, Number and Percent of Previous Year by State and United States, 1996-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Breeding Ewes 1 Year : Lambs per 100 : : & Older Jan 1 : Ewes 1+ Jan 1 : Lamb Crop 1/ State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : 97 as % : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : of 96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --- 1,000 Head --- -- Percent -- --- 1,000 Head -- Percent : AL : 3.7 4.9 130 88 4.8 4.3 90 AK : 0.9 0.8 78 75 0.7 0.6 86 AZ : 54.0 44.0 74 102 40.0 45.0 113 CA : 390.0 380.0 87 87 340.0 330.0 97 CO : 210.0 210.0 114 107 240.0 225.0 94 CT : 4.8 5.0 138 132 6.6 6.6 100 ID : 201.0 204.0 129 120 260.0 245.0 94 IL : 53.0 57.0 149 142 79.0 81.0 103 IN : 39.0 45.0 141 133 55.0 60.0 109 IA : 160.0 153.0 144 150 230.0 230.0 100 KS : 90.0 84.0 100 101 90.0 85.0 94 KY : 13.0 15.0 115 100 15.0 15.0 100 LA : 10.4 9.7 85 89 8.8 8.6 98 ME : 6.6 6.7 106 119 7.0 8.0 114 MD : 14.0 19.8 107 116 15.0 23.0 153 MA : 6.8 8.0 125 94 8.5 7.5 88 MI : 50.0 53.0 144 132 72.0 70.0 97 MN : 110.0 105.0 145 143 160.0 150.0 94 MO : 49.0 44.0 122 130 60.0 57.0 95 MT : 347.0 330.0 112 115 390.0 380.0 97 NE : 74.0 65.0 123 146 91.0 95.0 104 NV : 56.0 54.0 96 94 54.0 51.0 94 NH : 5.2 4.5 125 144 6.5 6.5 100 NJ : 12.0 10.0 92 105 11.0 10.5 95 NM : 205.0 180.0 73 89 150.0 160.0 107 NY : 43.0 38.0 126 132 54.0 50.0 93 NC : 9.0 9.5 116 100 10.4 9.5 91 ND : 77.0 91.0 130 110 100.0 100.0 100 OH : 100.0 80.0 112 135 112.0 108.0 96 OK : 57.0 52.0 105 106 60.0 55.0 92 OR : 205.0 165.0 102 112 210.0 185.0 88 PA : 72.0 64.0 108 116 78.0 74.0 95 SD : 330.0 310.0 118 118 390.0 365.0 94 TN : 8.0 7.6 106 105 8.5 8.0 94 TX : 1,080.0 980.0 75 93 810.0 910.0 112 UT : 305.0 290.0 107 107 325.0 310.0 95 VT : 10.2 11.0 127 100 13.0 11.0 85 VA : 54.0 51.0 130 129 70.0 66.0 94 WA : 41.0 37.0 129 162 53.0 60.0 113 WV : 37.0 36.0 122 103 45.0 37.0 82 WI : 52.0 44.0 129 150 67.0 66.0 99 WY : 455.0 450.0 101 100 460.0 450.0 98 : Oth : Sts 2/ : 27.5 27.6 76 93 21.0 25.7 122 : US : 5,128.1 4,836.1 103 108 5,281.8 5,244.8 99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Lamb crop is defined as lambs born in the Native States and lambs docked or branded in the Western States. 2/ Other States include AR, DE, FL, GA, HI, MS, RI, and SC. All Sheep and Lambs: Number, by Class, State, and United States, January 1, 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : All Sheep and Lambs : Total Breeding : Total Market State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : : :98 as %: : : : : 1997 : 1998 : of 97 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --- 1,000 Head --- Percent ------------- 1,000 Head ------------- : AL : 9.0 8.5 94 7.0 7.0 1/ 1/ AK : 1.6 1.4 88 1.4 1.3 0.2 0.1 AZ : 125.0 120.0 96 50.0 53.0 75.0 67.0 CA : 960.0 870.0 91 480.0 440.0 480.0 430.0 CO : 575.0 575.0 100 250.0 240.0 325.0 335.0 CT : 7.0 7.0 100 6.2 6.1 0.8 0.9 ID : 285.0 285.0 100 245.0 234.0 40.0 51.0 IL : 79.0 79.0 100 69.0 68.0 10.0 11.0 IN : 67.0 55.0 82 55.0 44.0 12.0 11.0 IA : 285.0 235.0 82 188.0 158.0 97.0 77.0 KS : 150.0 120.0 80 100.0 80.0 50.0 40.0 KY : 22.0 17.0 77 17.7 14.0 4.3 3.0 LA : 15.0 13.5 90 13.0 12.0 2.0 1.5 ME : 10.0 11.0 110 8.8 9.5 1.2 1.5 MD : 32.0 33.0 103 27.6 28.2 4.4 4.8 MA : 11.5 11.0 96 10.0 9.9 1.5 1.1 MI : 98.0 90.0 92 65.0 60.0 33.0 30.0 MN : 180.0 170.0 94 130.0 110.0 50.0 60.0 MO : 68.0 65.0 96 55.0 52.0 13.0 13.0 MT : 432.0 410.0 95 400.0 385.0 32.0 25.0 NE : 95.0 100.0 105 77.0 84.0 18.0 16.0 NV : 85.0 80.0 94 74.0 70.0 11.0 10.0 NH : 6.5 7.0 108 5.8 6.1 0.7 0.9 NJ : 17.5 17.0 97 13.5 13.0 4.0 4.0 NM : 235.0 240.0 102 220.0 215.0 15.0 25.0 NY : 60.0 65.0 108 48.0 53.0 12.0 12.0 NC : 13.2 11.0 83 11.5 10.0 1.7 1.0 ND : 135.0 110.0 81 105.0 84.0 30.0 26.0 OH : 130.0 117.0 90 101.0 87.0 29.0 30.0 OK : 75.0 70.0 93 60.0 56.0 15.0 14.0 OR : 304.0 265.0 87 209.0 175.0 95.0 90.0 PA : 94.0 94.0 100 81.0 80.0 13.0 14.0 SD : 450.0 400.0 89 355.0 330.0 95.0 70.0 TN : 13.5 11.0 81 10.0 9.0 3.5 2.0 TX : 1,400.0 1,500.0 107 1,150.0 1,170.0 250.0 330.0 UT : 375.0 350.0 93 339.0 315.0 36.0 35.0 VT : 16.4 14.0 85 14.3 11.5 2.1 2.5 VA : 80.0 81.0 101 65.0 64.0 15.0 17.0 WA : 50.0 62.0 124 45.0 47.0 5.0 15.0 WV : 50.0 40.0 80 42.0 35.0 8.0 5.0 WI : 69.0 70.0 101 57.0 58.0 12.0 12.0 WY : 720.0 680.0 94 550.0 510.0 170.0 170.0 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 50.9 55.6 109 38.1 42.1 14.8 15.0 : US : 7,937.1 7,616.0 96 5,849.9 5,536.7 2,087.2 2,079.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include AL, AR, DE, FL, GA, HI, MS, RI, and SC. Breeding Sheep and Lambs: Number by Class, State, and United States, January 1, 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Breeding Sheep-One Year Old & Older: : Total Breeding :-----------------------------------: Replacement : Sheep and State : Ewes : Rams : Lambs : Lambs :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : AL : 4.9 5.1 0.5 0.4 1.6 1.5 7.0 7.0 AK : 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 1.4 1.3 AZ : 44.0 45.0 2.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 50.0 53.0 CA : 380.0 360.0 15.0 15.0 85.0 65.0 480.0 440.0 CO : 210.0 200.0 7.0 7.0 33.0 33.0 250.0 240.0 CT : 5.0 4.9 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.8 6.2 6.1 ID : 204.0 194.0 5.0 5.0 36.0 35.0 245.0 234.0 IL : 57.0 56.0 4.0 4.0 8.0 8.0 69.0 68.0 IN : 45.0 32.0 3.0 3.0 7.0 9.0 55.0 44.0 IA : 153.0 127.0 8.0 7.0 27.0 24.0 188.0 158.0 KS : 84.0 66.0 6.0 5.0 10.0 9.0 100.0 80.0 KY : 15.0 11.0 1.0 0.7 1.7 2.3 17.7 14.0 LA : 9.7 9.0 1.4 1.2 1.9 1.8 13.0 12.0 ME : 6.7 7.0 0.7 0.8 1.4 1.7 8.8 9.5 MD : 19.8 20.2 2.8 3.0 5.0 5.0 27.6 28.2 MA : 8.0 7.9 0.6 0.6 1.4 1.4 10.0 9.9 MI : 53.0 50.0 3.0 3.0 9.0 7.0 65.0 60.0 MN : 105.0 90.0 5.0 5.0 20.0 15.0 130.0 110.0 MO : 44.0 42.0 2.5 2.5 8.5 7.5 55.0 52.0 MT : 330.0 315.0 11.0 10.0 59.0 60.0 400.0 385.0 NE : 65.0 71.0 3.0 3.0 9.0 10.0 77.0 84.0 NV : 54.0 51.0 2.0 2.0 18.0 17.0 74.0 70.0 NH : 4.5 4.9 0.4 0.4 0.9 0.8 5.8 6.1 NJ : 10.0 10.0 1.3 1.0 2.2 2.0 13.5 13.0 NM : 180.0 175.0 10.0 10.0 30.0 30.0 220.0 215.0 NY : 38.0 41.0 3.0 3.0 7.0 9.0 48.0 53.0 NC : 9.5 8.0 0.8 0.6 1.2 1.4 11.5 10.0 ND : 91.0 69.0 2.5 2.5 11.5 12.5 105.0 84.0 OH : 80.0 70.0 6.0 5.0 15.0 12.0 101.0 87.0 OK : 52.0 48.0 3.0 3.0 5.0 5.0 60.0 56.0 OR : 165.0 145.0 9.0 6.0 35.0 24.0 209.0 175.0 PA : 64.0 63.0 6.0 5.0 11.0 12.0 81.0 80.0 SD : 310.0 285.0 10.0 8.0 35.0 37.0 355.0 330.0 TN : 7.6 6.5 0.9 1.0 1.5 1.5 10.0 9.0 TX : 980.0 960.0 40.0 40.0 130.0 170.0 1,150.0 1,170.0 UT : 290.0 265.0 9.0 9.0 40.0 41.0 339.0 315.0 VT : 11.0 9.0 0.8 0.5 2.5 2.0 14.3 11.5 VA : 51.0 51.0 3.0 3.0 11.0 10.0 65.0 64.0 WA : 37.0 37.0 3.0 2.0 5.0 8.0 45.0 47.0 WV : 36.0 30.0 2.0 1.0 4.0 4.0 42.0 35.0 WI : 44.0 44.0 3.5 3.0 9.5 11.0 57.0 58.0 WY : 450.0 410.0 15.0 14.0 85.0 86.0 550.0 510.0 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 27.6 30.7 6.2 6.6 4.3 4.8 38.1 42.1 : US :4,836.1 4,526.9 219.7 205.6 794.1 804.2 5,849.9 5,536.7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include AR, DE, FL, GA, HI, MS, RI, and SC. Market Sheep and Lambs: Number by Weight Group by State and United States, January 1, 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Market Lambs : : :-------------------------------------------------: : Total State : Under : 65 to : 85 to : Over : : Market : Market : 65 : 84 : 105 : 105 : Total : Sheep :Sheep and : Pounds : Lbs. : Lbs. : Lbs. : : : Lambs -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : AL : 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ AK : 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 AZ : 14.0 4.0 45.0 10.0 73.0 2.0 75.0 CA : 210.0 90.0 110.0 50.0 460.0 20.0 480.0 CO : 4.0 43.0 100.0 175.0 322.0 3.0 325.0 CT : 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.2 0.8 ID : 5.0 1.0 11.5 22.0 39.5 0.5 40.0 IL : 3.0 1.9 2.5 2.4 9.8 0.2 10.0 IN : 1.5 3.0 4.5 2.0 11.0 1.0 12.0 IA : 15.0 22.0 29.0 30.0 96.0 1.0 97.0 KS : 22.0 7.0 12.0 4.0 45.0 5.0 50.0 KY : 2.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 3.9 0.4 4.3 LA : 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.9 0.1 2.0 ME : 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.9 0.3 1.2 MD : 2.7 0.7 0.3 0.4 4.1 0.3 4.4 MA : 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.1 0.4 1.5 MI : 6.0 8.0 11.0 7.5 32.5 0.5 33.0 MN : 7.0 9.0 16.0 16.0 48.0 2.0 50.0 MO : 4.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 12.0 1.0 13.0 MT : 4.0 8.0 14.0 4.0 30.0 2.0 32.0 NE : 3.0 2.0 5.0 7.0 17.0 1.0 18.0 NV : 0.0 0.0 5.0 6.0 11.0 0.0 11.0 NH : 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.7 NJ : 1.0 1.5 0.5 0.5 3.5 0.5 4.0 NM : 4.0 6.0 3.0 1.0 14.0 1.0 15.0 NY : 5.0 2.0 3.0 1.0 11.0 1.0 12.0 NC : 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.1 1.4 0.3 1.7 ND : 1.0 10.0 10.0 8.0 29.0 1.0 30.0 OH : 12.0 4.0 6.0 4.0 26.0 3.0 29.0 OK : 9.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 14.0 1.0 15.0 OR : 17.0 14.0 40.0 21.0 92.0 3.0 95.0 PA : 5.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 10.0 3.0 13.0 SD : 8.0 11.0 37.0 38.0 94.0 1.0 95.0 TN : 1.8 0.4 0.3 0.2 2.7 0.8 3.5 TX : 95.0 75.0 35.0 30.0 235.0 15.0 250.0 UT : 1.0 3.0 15.0 11.0 30.0 6.0 36.0 VT : 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.3 1.8 0.3 2.1 VA : 6.0 3.5 3.5 1.5 14.5 0.5 15.0 WA : 1.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 5.0 0.0 5.0 WV : 2.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 8.0 0.0 8.0 WI : 3.0 3.0 3.5 2.0 11.5 0.5 12.0 WY : 2.0 20.0 102.0 43.0 167.0 3.0 170.0 : Oth : Sts 2/ : 7.2 2.4 1.5 0.8 11.9 2.9 14.8 : US : 489.3 368.3 637.8 506.9 2,002.3 84.9 2,087.2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data combined to avoid disclosing individual operations. 2/ Other States include AL, AR, DE, FL, GA, HI, MS, RI, and SC. Market Sheep and Lambs: Number by Weight Group by State and United States, January 1, 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Market Lambs : : :-------------------------------------------------: : Total State : Under : 65 to : 85 to : Over : : Market : Market : 65 : 84 : 105 : 105 : Total : Sheep :Sheep and : Pounds : Lbs. : Lbs. : Lbs. : : : Lambs -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : AL : 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ AK : 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 AZ : 16.0 11.0 36.0 3.0 66.0 1.0 67.0 CA : 190.0 80.0 90.0 50.0 410.0 20.0 430.0 CO : 2.0 2.0 115.0 214.0 333.0 2.0 335.0 CT : 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.3 0.9 ID : 3.0 2.0 13.0 31.0 49.0 2.0 51.0 IL : 2.5 1.5 3.0 3.0 10.0 1.0 11.0 IN : 3.0 2.0 3.0 2.0 10.0 1.0 11.0 IA : 7.0 9.0 28.0 32.0 76.0 1.0 77.0 KS : 17.0 7.0 10.0 3.0 37.0 3.0 40.0 KY : 1.6 0.5 0.4 0.1 2.6 0.4 3.0 LA : 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 1.4 0.1 1.5 ME : 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.1 0.4 1.5 MD : 2.9 0.8 0.4 0.4 4.5 0.3 4.8 MA : 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.9 0.2 1.1 MI : 5.0 6.0 13.0 5.5 29.5 0.5 30.0 MN : 15.0 10.0 17.0 17.0 59.0 1.0 60.0 MO : 4.5 2.0 3.0 2.5 12.0 1.0 13.0 MT : 1.0 4.0 14.0 5.0 24.0 1.0 25.0 NE : 3.0 5.0 5.0 2.0 15.0 1.0 16.0 NV : 0.0 0.0 5.0 5.0 10.0 0.0 10.0 NH : 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.9 NJ : 1.0 1.5 0.5 0.5 3.5 0.5 4.0 NM : 5.0 12.0 3.0 1.0 21.0 4.0 25.0 NY : 5.0 2.0 3.0 1.0 11.0 1.0 12.0 NC : 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.9 0.1 1.0 ND : 1.0 10.0 7.5 6.5 25.0 1.0 26.0 OH : 10.0 6.0 9.0 3.0 28.0 2.0 30.0 OK : 5.0 2.0 4.0 2.0 13.0 1.0 14.0 OR : 15.0 13.0 36.0 23.0 87.0 3.0 90.0 PA : 5.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 11.0 3.0 14.0 SD : 4.0 9.0 25.0 30.0 68.0 2.0 70.0 TN : 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.2 1.5 0.5 2.0 TX : 135.0 75.0 60.0 45.0 315.0 15.0 330.0 UT : 1.0 2.0 12.0 13.0 28.0 7.0 35.0 VT : 0.8 0.4 0.7 0.2 2.1 0.4 2.5 VA : 5.0 3.0 6.0 2.5 16.5 0.5 17.0 WA : 2.0 0.0 7.0 6.0 15.0 0.0 15.0 WV : 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 5.0 0.0 5.0 WI : 2.0 3.5 3.5 2.5 11.5 0.5 12.0 WY : 2.0 19.0 79.0 68.0 168.0 2.0 170.0 : Oth : Sts 2/ : 6.7 2.7 1.9 0.8 12.1 2.9 15.0 : US : 484.8 309.2 618.1 583.2 1,995.3 84.0 2,079.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data combined to avoid disclosing individual operations. 2/ Other States include AL, AR, DE, FL, GA, HI, MS, RI, and SC. Sheep and Lambs: January 1, 1994-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Operations with Sheep State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1994 : 1995 : 1996 : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : AL : 340 310 310 300 AK : 40 40 40 40 AZ : 450 450 400 400 CA : 5,000 4,800 4,600 4,500 CO : 1,600 1,300 1,300 1,200 CT : 480 350 350 350 ID : 1,400 1,300 1,100 1,100 IL : 3,700 3,500 3,300 3,100 IN : 3,200 2,700 2,400 2,700 IA : 6,500 6,300 6,000 5,800 KS : 2,300 1,900 1,900 2,000 KY : 1,000 900 850 800 LA : 1,100 1,000 900 800 ME : 700 600 550 550 MD : 1,100 1,000 1,000 1,100 MA : 600 500 500 600 MI : 2,100 2,000 2,000 2,100 MN : 3,600 3,500 3,300 3,000 MO : 2,900 2,600 2,300 2,100 MT : 2,300 2,200 2,200 2,200 NE : 1,700 1,800 2,000 2,000 NV : 350 350 350 350 NH : 540 400 450 400 NJ : 900 850 800 800 NM : 1,000 1,000 1,000 900 NY : 1,800 1,700 1,800 1,700 NC : 600 600 600 620 ND : 1,400 1,200 1,000 1,000 OH : 5,200 5,000 4,500 4,000 OK : 2,000 1,700 1,700 1,700 OR : 3,200 2,600 3,100 3,000 PA : 3,300 3,200 3,100 3,000 SD : 3,500 3,000 2,700 2,500 TN : 650 650 650 600 TX : 7,600 7,300 7,000 6,500 UT : 2,000 1,900 1,700 1,600 VT : 720 750 600 600 VA : 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,300 WA : 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 WV : 1,500 1,600 1,400 1,300 WI : 2,500 2,400 2,300 2,100 WY : 1,200 1,100 1,100 1,100 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 1,780 1,620 1,460 1,400 : US : 87,150 81,070 77,510 74,710 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include AR, DE, FL, GA, HI, MS, RI, and SC. Breeding Sheep: Survey Percent by Size Group, United States, 1997-98 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1-99 Head : 100-499 Head : 500-4999 Head : 5000+ Head Item :----------------------------------------------------------------- : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent : Operations : 91.9 90.8 6.2 6.8 1.8 2.3 0.1 0.1 : Inventory : 25.7 25.5 20.3 19.2 40.0 42.6 14.0 12.7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Percents reflect distributions of end of year survey. Goats: Inventory, 4 States and Total, January 1, 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Angora : All Goats State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : AZ : 40 40 na na NM : 77 60 na na OK : 10 5 na na TX : 1,000 750 1,650 1,400 : Total : 1,127 855 1,650 1,400 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Reliability of January 1 Sheep and Goat Estimates Survey Procedures: A random sample of U.S. producers was surveyed to provide data for these estimates. Survey procedures ensured that all sheep producers, regardless of size, had a chance to be included in the survey. Large producers were sampled more heavily than small operations. About 15,000 operators were contacted during the first half of January by mail, telephone and face-to-face personal interview. Regardless of when operators responded, they were asked to report inventories as of January 1. Estimation Procedures: These sheep estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board. National and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness and with estimates from past years. A projected balance sheet for calendar year 1997 was also used. The balance sheet begins with the previous inventory estimate, adds estimates of births and imports, and subtracts estimates of slaughter, exports and deaths. This indicated ending inventory level is compared with the Agricultural Statistics Board estimate for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve the current estimate. Previous year estimates are subject to revision when current estimates are made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Department of Commerce's five-year census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations raising sheep and goats are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors, such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating reliability of the estimates in this report, the"Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected sheep items in the table below. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between the first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for sheep and lamb inventory estimates over the past 10 years is 0.7 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 7.6 million head by more than 0.7 percent, or about 53,000 head. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 1.3 percent, or about 99,000 head (the 90 percent confidence level). Also shown in the table is a 10-year record showing the range between the first inventory estimate and the latest estimate. Using estimates for All Sheep and Lambs as an example, changes between the first inventory estimate and the latest estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 49,000 head, ranging from 100 to 236,000 head. The inventory estimate of All Sheep and Lambs has been below the latest estimate 5 times and above the latest estimate 5 times in the last 10 years. Reliability of U.S. January 1 Sheep and Lamb Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90% : Difference Between : : : Confidence : First and Final : Number of : Root : Level : Estimates 1/ : Quarters Item : Mean :--------------------------------------------------------- : Square : : : : : : First : First : Error :Percent: (000) :Average:Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : Head : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ---------- 1,000 Head --------- Number : All Sheep & : 0.7 1.3 99.1 49.0 0.1 236.0 5 5 Lambs : : Breeding : 1.3 2.4 133.0 57.0 0.1 371.0 6 4 Sheep : : Lamb : Crop : 0.6 1.1 57.7 9.0 0.1 82.0 6 4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on data for the past 10 years. Index Page All Goats, Inventory, Texas, 1997-98 . . . .10 All Sheep and Lambs: Balance Sheet, U.S. . . . . . . . 2 Number by Class, by State and U.S.. . . . 4 Operations with Sheep . . . . . . .8 Angora Goats, Inventory, 4-States. . . . . 10 Breeding Sheep: Operations and Inventory, Survey Percent by Size Group, U.S.9 Breeding Sheep and Lambs, Number by Class, by State and U.S.5 Lamb Crop per 100 Ewes 1+, Number and Percent of Previous Year, by State and U.S. . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Market Sheep and Lambs, Number by Weight Group, by State and U.S. January 1, 1997 . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Market Sheep and Lambs, Number by Weight Group, by State and U.S. January 1, 1998 . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Reliability of U.S. January 1 Sheep and Lamb Estimates (RMSE)13 The next "Sheep and Goats" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on January 29, 1999. 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