Sheep and Goats National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released January 29, 1999, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Sheep and Goats" call James Hand at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. Total Sheep and Lamb Inventory Down 8 Percent All sheep and lamb inventory in the United States on January 1, 1999, totaled 7.24 million head, down 8 percent from 1998 and 10 percent below two years ago. Inventory has declined since 1942 when it reached a peak of 56.2 million head. Breeding sheep inventory declined to 5.31 million head on January 1, 1999, down 5 percent from January 1, 1998's 5.61 million head. Ewes one year old and older, at 4.34 million head, were 5 percent below last year. Market sheep and lambs on January 1, 1999, totaled 1.92 million head, down 13 percent from January 1, 1998. Market lambs comprised 96 percent of the total. Twenty-six percent were lambs under 65 pounds, 17 percent were 65 - 84 pounds, 27 percent 85 - 105 pounds, 26 percent were over 105 pounds, and 4 percent were market sheep. The 1998 lamb crop of 5.01 million head was down 6 percent from 1997. This compares with the previous record low of 5.36 million head set a year ago. The 1998 lambing rate was 110 per 100 ewes one year old and older on January 1, 1998, compared with 109 in 1997. The number of operations with sheep during 1998 totaled 68,810, down 5 percent from 1997 and 10 percent from 1996. Mt An 5-2 (1-99) Sheep and Lambs: Number, by Class, United States January 1, 1997-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : 99 as % Class : 1997 : 1998 : 1999 : of 98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----------- 1,000 head ---------- Percent : All Sheep and Lambs : 8,024 7,825 7,238 92 Market : 2,105 2,214 1,923 87 Breeding Sheep and Lambs : 5,919 5,611 5,314 95 Replacement Lambs - : Under One Year Old : 787 839 774 92 Ewes - One Year Old : and Older : 4,912 4,570 4,338 95 Rams - One Year Old : and Older : 220 203 202 99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Lamb Crop: Per 100 Ewes 1+, Number and Percent of Previous Year, by State and United States, 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Breeding Ewes 1 Year : Lambs per 100 : : & Older Jan 1 : Ewes 1+ Jan 1 : Lamb Crop 1/ State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : 98 as % : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : of 97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --- 1,000 Head --- -- Percent -- --- 1,000 Head -- Percent : AL : 4.9 5.1 88 76 4.3 3.9 91 AK : 0.8 0.8 88 88 0.7 0.7 100 AZ : 65.0 63.0 74 75 48.0 47.0 98 CA : 360.0 345.0 89 90 320.0 310.0 97 CO : 210.0 200.0 107 110 225.0 220.0 98 CT : 3.5 3.4 129 118 4.5 4.0 89 ID : 204.0 194.0 120 124 245.0 240.0 98 IL : 57.0 56.0 142 130 81.0 73.0 90 IN : 37.0 32.0 149 156 55.0 50.0 91 IA : 153.0 138.0 150 152 230.0 210.0 91 KS : 84.0 66.0 101 106 85.0 70.0 82 KY : 15.0 13.0 120 123 18.0 16.0 89 LA : 6.2 3.8 81 118 5.0 4.5 90 ME : 6.7 7.0 127 114 8.5 8.0 94 MD : 13.5 12.5 104 128 14.0 16.0 114 MA : 6.5 5.7 108 114 7.0 6.5 93 MI : 50.0 38.0 124 121 62.0 46.0 74 MN : 105.0 85.0 138 182 145.0 155.0 107 MO : 50.0 54.0 150 167 75.0 90.0 120 MT : 330.0 315.0 115 113 380.0 355.0 93 NE : 65.0 71.0 146 135 95.0 96.0 101 NV : 58.0 56.0 97 102 56.0 57.0 102 NH : 4.0 4.5 125 122 5.0 5.5 110 NJ : 8.0 8.5 113 94 9.0 8.0 89 NM : 200.0 190.0 85 87 170.0 165.0 97 NY : 38.0 38.0 132 124 50.0 47.0 94 NC : 11.0 11.0 94 96 10.3 10.6 103 ND : 91.0 78.0 121 135 110.0 105.0 95 OH : 88.0 85.0 149 145 131.0 123.0 94 OK : 47.0 44.0 106 91 50.0 40.0 80 OR : 180.0 150.0 108 109 195.0 163.0 84 PA : 64.0 57.0 116 126 74.0 72.0 97 SD : 315.0 300.0 119 115 375.0 345.0 92 TN : 8.0 8.5 106 118 8.5 10.0 118 TX : 980.0 880.0 93 91 910.0 800.0 88 UT : 335.0 320.0 110 109 370.0 350.0 95 VT : 11.0 9.5 105 147 11.5 14.0 122 VA : 48.0 46.0 125 113 60.0 52.0 87 WA : 37.0 35.0 154 160 57.0 56.0 98 WV : 36.0 30.0 103 127 37.0 38.0 103 WI : 49.0 51.0 151 137 74.0 70.0 95 WY : 450.0 430.0 102 102 460.0 440.0 96 : Oth : Sts 2/ : 26.5 29.2 94 71 25.0 20.6 82 : US : 4,911.6 4,569.5 109 110 5,356.3 5,013.3 94 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Lamb crop is defined as lambs born in the Native States and lambs docked or branded in the Western States. 2/ Other States include AR, DE, FL, GA, HI, MS, RI, and SC. All Sheep and Lambs: Number, by Class, State, and United States, January 1, 1998-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : All Sheep and Lambs : Total Breeding : Total Market State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : : :99 as %: : : : : 1998 : 1999 : of 98 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --- 1,000 Head --- Percent ------------- 1,000 Head ------------- : AL 1/ : 8.5 6.5 76 7.0 5.5 1.0 AK : 1.6 1.6 100 1.5 1.5 0.1 0.1 AZ : 140.0 140.0 100 73.0 68.0 67.0 72.0 CA : 800.0 810.0 101 390.0 390.0 410.0 420.0 CO : 575.0 440.0 77 240.0 220.0 335.0 220.0 CT : 5.0 4.5 90 4.3 3.8 0.7 0.7 ID : 285.0 265.0 93 234.0 231.0 51.0 34.0 IL : 79.0 74.0 94 68.0 64.0 11.0 10.0 IN : 55.0 57.0 104 44.0 47.0 11.0 10.0 IA : 265.0 260.0 98 172.0 170.0 93.0 90.0 KS : 120.0 100.0 83 80.0 70.0 40.0 30.0 KY : 22.0 21.0 95 17.0 16.5 5.0 4.5 LA : 6.0 6.5 108 5.0 5.5 1.0 1.0 ME : 11.0 11.0 100 9.5 9.6 1.5 1.4 MD : 22.0 23.0 105 18.5 17.0 3.5 6.0 MA : 8.5 8.5 100 7.5 7.5 1.0 1.0 MI : 72.0 62.0 86 48.0 44.0 24.0 18.0 MN : 165.0 175.0 106 105.0 110.0 60.0 65.0 MO : 80.0 85.0 106 66.0 71.0 14.0 14.0 MT : 415.0 380.0 92 385.0 345.0 30.0 35.0 NE : 100.0 105.0 105 84.0 88.0 16.0 17.0 NV : 88.0 85.0 97 77.0 75.0 11.0 10.0 NH : 7.0 7.0 100 6.0 6.0 1.0 1.0 NJ : 13.0 12.0 92 10.5 11.0 2.5 1.0 NM : 290.0 275.0 95 235.0 225.0 55.0 50.0 NY : 61.0 55.0 90 49.0 46.0 12.0 9.0 NC : 14.0 14.5 104 13.0 13.0 1.0 1.5 ND : 131.0 134.0 102 96.0 98.0 35.0 36.0 OH : 135.0 125.0 93 104.0 103.0 31.0 22.0 OK : 70.0 55.0 79 52.0 41.0 18.0 14.0 OR : 285.0 215.0 75 185.0 150.0 100.0 65.0 PA : 86.0 83.0 97 73.0 71.0 13.0 12.0 SD : 420.0 420.0 100 350.0 325.0 70.0 95.0 TN : 14.0 13.0 93 12.0 12.0 2.0 1.0 TX : 1,530.0 1,350.0 88 1,120.0 1,050.0 410.0 300.0 UT : 420.0 400.0 95 380.0 360.0 40.0 40.0 VT : 14.5 18.0 124 12.0 15.7 2.5 2.3 VA : 74.0 57.0 77 58.0 46.0 16.0 11.0 WA : 53.0 50.0 94 45.0 44.0 8.0 6.0 WV : 40.0 40.0 100 35.0 35.0 5.0 5.0 WI : 79.0 83.0 105 69.0 66.0 10.0 17.0 WY : 710.0 660.0 93 530.0 500.0 180.0 160.0 : Oth : Sts 2/ : 55.0 50.4 92 40.4 36.5 16.1 13.9 : US : 7,825.1 7,237.5 92 5,611.2 5,314.1 2,213.9 1,923.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total market sheep and lambs for 1998 combined with "other states" to avoid disclosing individual operations. 2/ Other States include AL, AR, DE, FL, GA, HI, MS, RI, and SC. Breeding Sheep and Lambs: Number, by Class, State, and United States, January 1, 1998-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Breeding Sheep-One Year Old & Older: : Total Breeding :-----------------------------------: Replacement : Sheep and State : Ewes : Rams : Lambs : Lambs :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : AL : 5.1 4.1 0.4 0.3 1.5 1.1 7.0 5.5 AK : 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 1.5 1.5 AZ : 63.0 58.0 2.0 3.0 8.0 7.0 73.0 68.0 CA : 345.0 330.0 10.0 15.0 35.0 45.0 390.0 390.0 CO : 200.0 185.0 7.0 6.0 33.0 29.0 240.0 220.0 CT : 3.4 2.7 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.8 4.3 3.8 ID : 194.0 185.0 5.0 5.0 35.0 41.0 234.0 231.0 IL : 56.0 52.0 4.0 4.0 8.0 8.0 68.0 64.0 IN : 32.0 35.0 3.0 3.0 9.0 9.0 44.0 47.0 IA : 138.0 133.0 7.0 7.0 27.0 30.0 172.0 170.0 KS : 66.0 57.0 5.0 4.0 9.0 9.0 80.0 70.0 KY : 13.0 13.0 1.0 1.0 3.0 2.5 17.0 16.5 LA : 3.8 4.1 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 5.0 5.5 ME : 7.0 7.5 0.8 0.7 1.7 1.4 9.5 9.6 MD : 12.5 12.5 2.5 1.0 3.5 3.5 18.5 17.0 MA : 5.7 5.9 0.5 0.5 1.3 1.1 7.5 7.5 MI : 38.0 34.0 3.0 3.0 7.0 7.0 48.0 44.0 MN : 85.0 90.0 5.0 5.0 15.0 15.0 105.0 110.0 MO : 54.0 58.0 4.0 4.0 8.0 9.0 66.0 71.0 MT : 315.0 270.0 10.0 9.0 60.0 66.0 385.0 345.0 NE : 71.0 73.0 3.0 4.0 10.0 11.0 84.0 88.0 NV : 56.0 53.0 2.0 2.0 19.0 20.0 77.0 75.0 NH : 4.5 4.5 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.0 6.0 6.0 NJ : 8.5 8.0 0.7 1.0 1.3 2.0 10.5 11.0 NM : 190.0 180.0 10.0 10.0 35.0 35.0 235.0 225.0 NY : 38.0 36.0 3.0 2.0 8.0 8.0 49.0 46.0 NC : 11.0 11.0 0.6 0.6 1.4 1.4 13.0 13.0 ND : 78.0 79.0 3.0 3.0 15.0 16.0 96.0 98.0 OH : 85.0 85.0 5.0 5.0 14.0 13.0 104.0 103.0 OK : 44.0 34.0 3.0 2.0 5.0 5.0 52.0 41.0 OR : 150.0 120.0 7.0 6.0 28.0 24.0 185.0 150.0 PA : 57.0 55.0 5.0 5.0 11.0 11.0 73.0 71.0 SD : 300.0 270.0 8.0 9.0 42.0 46.0 350.0 325.0 TN : 8.5 9.0 1.0 1.0 2.5 2.0 12.0 12.0 TX : 880.0 880.0 40.0 40.0 200.0 130.0 1,120.0 1,050.0 UT : 320.0 305.0 10.0 10.0 50.0 45.0 380.0 360.0 VT : 9.5 12.4 0.5 0.7 2.0 2.6 12.0 15.7 VA : 46.0 37.0 3.0 2.0 9.0 7.0 58.0 46.0 WA : 35.0 35.0 2.0 2.0 8.0 7.0 45.0 44.0 WV : 30.0 30.0 1.0 1.0 4.0 4.0 35.0 35.0 WI : 51.0 52.0 3.0 3.0 15.0 11.0 69.0 66.0 WY : 430.0 405.0 14.0 13.0 86.0 82.0 530.0 500.0 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 29.2 26.7 6.1 6.0 5.1 3.8 40.4 36.5 : US :4,569.5 4,338.2 202.8 201.6 838.9 774.3 5,611.2 5,314.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include AR, DE, FL, GA, HI, MS, RI, and SC. Market Sheep and Lambs: Number, by Weight Group, State, and United States, January 1, 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Market Lambs : : :-------------------------------------------------: : Total State : Under : 65 to : 85 to : Over : : Market : Market : 65 : 84 : 105 : 105 : Total : Sheep :Sheep and : Pounds : Lbs. : Lbs. : Lbs. : : : Lambs -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : AL 1/ : AK : 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 AZ : 16.0 11.0 36.0 3.0 66.0 1.0 67.0 CA : 190.0 80.0 70.0 50.0 390.0 20.0 410.0 CO : 2.0 2.0 115.0 214.0 333.0 2.0 335.0 CT : 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.1 0.7 ID : 3.0 2.0 13.0 31.0 49.0 2.0 51.0 IL : 2.5 1.5 3.0 3.0 10.0 1.0 11.0 IN : 3.0 2.0 3.0 2.0 10.0 1.0 11.0 IA : 9.0 12.0 33.0 38.0 92.0 1.0 93.0 KS : 17.0 7.0 10.0 3.0 37.0 3.0 40.0 KY : 2.2 0.7 0.6 0.5 4.0 1.0 5.0 LA : 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.9 0.1 1.0 ME : 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.1 0.4 1.5 MD : 2.5 0.5 0.1 0.1 3.2 0.3 3.5 MA : 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.9 0.1 1.0 MI : 3.0 5.0 9.5 6.0 23.5 0.5 24.0 MN : 15.0 10.0 17.0 17.0 59.0 1.0 60.0 MO : 5.0 2.0 3.5 2.0 12.5 1.5 14.0 MT : 2.0 5.0 16.0 6.0 29.0 1.0 30.0 NE : 3.0 5.0 5.0 2.0 15.0 1.0 16.0 NV : 0.0 0.0 5.0 6.0 11.0 0.0 11.0 NH : 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.4 1.0 NJ : 1.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 2.1 0.4 2.5 NM : 12.0 26.0 9.0 3.0 50.0 5.0 55.0 NY : 5.0 2.0 3.0 1.0 11.0 1.0 12.0 NC : 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.9 0.1 1.0 ND : 1.0 14.0 10.0 9.0 34.0 1.0 35.0 OH : 10.0 7.0 10.0 2.0 29.0 2.0 31.0 OK : 7.0 3.0 5.0 2.0 17.0 1.0 18.0 OR : 15.0 13.0 41.0 28.0 97.0 3.0 100.0 PA : 5.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 11.0 2.0 13.0 SD : 4.0 9.0 25.0 30.0 68.0 2.0 70.0 TN : 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.2 1.5 0.5 2.0 TX : 170.0 90.0 75.0 55.0 390.0 20.0 410.0 UT : 1.0 2.0 14.0 15.0 32.0 8.0 40.0 VT : 0.8 0.4 0.7 0.2 2.1 0.4 2.5 VA : 5.0 3.0 5.5 2.0 15.5 0.5 16.0 WA : 2.0 0.0 4.0 2.0 8.0 0.0 8.0 WV : 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 5.0 0.0 5.0 WI : 2.0 3.0 2.5 2.0 9.5 0.5 10.0 WY : 2.0 19.0 84.0 73.0 178.0 2.0 180.0 : Oth : Sts 2/ : 6.9 3.1 2.3 0.8 13.1 3.0 16.1 : US : 530.7 346.0 635.1 611.3 2,123.1 90.8 2,213.9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data combined with "other states" to avoid disclosing individual operations. 2/ Other States include AL, AR, DE, FL, GA, HI, MS, RI, and SC. Market Sheep and Lambs: Number, by Weight Group, State, and United States, January 1, 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Market Lambs : : :-------------------------------------------------: : Total State : Under : 65 to : 85 to : Over : : Market : Market : 65 : 84 : 105 : 105 : Total : Sheep :Sheep and : Pounds : Lbs. : Lbs. : Lbs. : : : Lambs -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : AL : 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.9 0.1 1.0 AK : 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 AZ : 14.0 15.0 13.0 29.0 71.0 1.0 72.0 CA : 205.0 85.0 75.0 35.0 400.0 20.0 420.0 CO : 7.0 5.0 52.0 155.0 219.0 1.0 220.0 CT : 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.6 0.1 0.7 ID : 5.0 1.0 8.0 15.0 29.0 5.0 34.0 IL : 3.0 1.5 3.0 1.5 9.0 1.0 10.0 IN : 3.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 9.0 1.0 10.0 IA : 8.0 13.0 30.0 38.0 89.0 1.0 90.0 KS : 15.0 6.0 5.0 1.0 27.0 3.0 30.0 KY : 1.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 4.0 0.5 4.5 LA : 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.9 0.1 1.0 ME : 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 0.4 1.4 MD : 3.0 1.0 0.5 0.0 4.5 1.5 6.0 MA : 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9 0.1 1.0 MI : 2.5 2.0 5.5 7.5 17.5 0.5 18.0 MN : 17.0 13.0 17.0 17.0 64.0 1.0 65.0 MO : 2.0 5.0 4.5 2.0 13.5 0.5 14.0 MT : 2.0 6.0 20.0 6.0 34.0 1.0 35.0 NE : 3.0 4.0 4.0 5.0 16.0 1.0 17.0 NV : 0.0 0.0 4.0 5.0 9.0 1.0 10.0 NH : 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.4 1.0 NJ : 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.9 0.1 1.0 NM : 15.0 12.0 9.0 10.0 46.0 4.0 50.0 NY : 5.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 8.0 1.0 9.0 NC : 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 1.3 0.2 1.5 ND : 1.5 8.0 19.0 6.5 35.0 1.0 36.0 OH : 7.0 7.0 5.0 2.0 21.0 1.0 22.0 OK : 5.0 3.0 3.0 2.0 13.0 1.0 14.0 OR : 14.0 5.0 37.0 4.0 60.0 5.0 65.0 PA : 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 10.0 2.0 12.0 SD : 4.0 22.0 27.0 40.0 93.0 2.0 95.0 TN : 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.2 1.0 TX : 120.0 70.0 60.0 40.0 290.0 10.0 300.0 UT : 1.0 3.0 10.0 19.0 33.0 7.0 40.0 VT : 0.8 0.3 0.6 0.3 2.0 0.3 2.3 VA : 3.5 3.5 2.0 1.5 10.5 0.5 11.0 WA : 1.0 0.0 3.0 2.0 6.0 0.0 6.0 WV : 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 5.0 0.0 5.0 WI : 3.5 3.5 6.0 3.0 16.0 1.0 17.0 WY : 2.0 19.0 84.0 53.0 158.0 2.0 160.0 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 5.4 2.9 1.4 0.8 10.5 3.4 13.9 : US : 490.0 326.5 516.7 507.3 1,840.5 82.9 1,923.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include AR, DE, FL, GA, HI, MS, RI, and SC. Sheep and Lambs: January 1, 1995-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Operations with Sheep State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1995 : 1996 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : AL : 310 310 300 300 AK : 40 40 40 40 AZ : 400 350 350 300 CA : 4,400 4,000 3,700 3,300 CO : 1,300 1,600 1,600 1,700 CT : 250 250 240 270 ID : 1,300 1,100 1,100 1,100 IL : 3,200 3,000 2,800 2,600 IN : 2,700 2,400 2,400 2,200 IA : 6,300 5,500 5,300 4,900 KS : 1,900 1,900 1,800 1,600 KY : 900 850 800 800 LA : 1,000 700 500 400 ME : 550 500 500 450 MD : 800 800 700 700 MA : 550 500 500 450 MI : 2,000 1,900 1,600 1,600 MN : 3,400 3,200 2,900 2,600 MO : 2,600 2,300 2,100 2,000 MT : 2,200 2,200 2,100 2,000 NE : 1,700 1,700 1,700 1,700 NV : 350 350 350 300 NH : 400 450 400 400 NJ : 800 800 750 750 NM : 1,000 1,000 900 900 NY : 1,700 1,800 1,700 1,600 NC : 600 600 600 600 ND : 1,200 1,100 1,200 1,150 OH : 4,600 4,100 3,700 3,600 OK : 1,700 1,700 1,700 1,600 OR : 2,600 3,100 3,000 3,100 PA : 3,000 2,900 2,800 2,600 SD : 3,000 2,700 2,500 2,500 TN : 800 800 800 800 TX : 7,300 7,300 7,100 7,000 UT : 2,000 1,900 1,700 1,500 VT : 750 600 600 500 VA : 1,900 1,900 1,800 1,700 WA : 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,200 WV : 1,600 1,400 1,300 1,100 WI : 2,400 2,600 2,400 2,100 WY : 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 1,800 1,800 1,750 1,700 : US : 79,900 76,600 72,680 68,810 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include AR, DE, FL, GA, HI, MS, RI, and SC. Breeding Sheep: Survey Percent by Size Group, United States, 1998-99 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1-99 Head : 100-499 Head : 500-4999 Head : 5000+ Head Item :----------------------------------------------------------------- : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent : Operations : 90.8 90.6 6.8 7.3 2.3 2.0 0.1 0.1 : Inventory : 25.5 25.9 19.2 20.4 42.6 39.0 12.7 14.7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Percents reflect distributions of end of year survey. Goats: Inventory, Selected States, and Total, January 1, 1998-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Angora : All Goats State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : AZ : 40 38 NA NA NM : 45 38 NA NA OK : 5 5 NA NA TX : 750 550 1,400 1,350 : Total : 840 631 1,400 1,350 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Reliability of January 1 Sheep and Goat Estimates Survey Procedures: A random sample of U.S. producers was surveyed to provide data for these estimates. Survey procedures ensured that all sheep producers, regardless of size, had a chance to be included in the survey. Large producers were sampled more heavily than small operations. About 14,500 operators were contacted during the first half of January by mail, telephone and face-to-face personal interview. Regardless of when operators responded, they were asked to report inventories as of January 1. Estimation Procedures: These sheep estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board. National and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness and with estimates from past years. A projected balance sheet for calendar year 1998 was also used. The balance sheet begins with the previous inventory estimate, adds estimates of births and imports, and subtracts estimates of slaughter, exports and deaths. This indicated ending inventory level is compared with the Agricultural Statistics Board estimate for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve the current estimate. Previous year estimates are subject to revision when current estimates are made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Department of Agriculture's five-year census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations raising sheep and goats are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors, such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating reliability of the estimates in this report, the"Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected sheep items in the table below. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between the first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for sheep and lamb inventory estimates over the past 10 years is 1.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 7.2 million head by more than 1.1 percent, or about 80,000 head. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.0 percent, or about 145,000 head (the 90 percent confidence level). Also shown in the table is a 10-year record showing the range between the first inventory estimate and the latest estimate. Using estimates for All Sheep and Lambs as an example, changes between the first inventory estimate and the latest estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 73,000 head, ranging from 100 to 209,000 head. The initial inventory estimate of All Sheep and Lambs has been below the latest estimate 7 times and above the latest estimate 3 times in the last 10 years. Reliability of U.S. January 1 Sheep and Lamb Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90% : Difference Between : : : Confidence : First and Final : Number of : Root : Level : Estimates 1/ : Quarters Item : Mean :--------------------------------------------------------- : Square : : : : : : First : First : Error :Percent: (000) :Average:Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : Head : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ---------- 1,000 Head --------- Number : All Sheep & : 1.1 2.0 144.8 73.0 8.0 209.0 3 7 Lambs : : Breeding : 0.8 1.4 74.4 41.0 2.0 78.0 4 6 Sheep : : Lamb : Crop : 1.1 1.9 95.3 33.0 -18.0 112.0 4 6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on data for the past 10 years. Index Page All Goats, Inventory, Texas, 1998-99 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 All Sheep and Lambs: Number by Class, U.S. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2 Number by Class, by State and U.S.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Operations with Sheep . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8 Angora Goats, Inventory, Selected States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 Breeding Sheep: Operations and Inventory, Survey Percent by Size Group, U.S. .9 Breeding Sheep and Lambs, Number by Class, by State and U.S. . . . . . . . . .5 Lamb Crop per 100 Ewes 1+, Number and Percent of Previous Year, by State and U.S. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3 Market Sheep and Lambs, Number by Weight Group, State and U.S., January 1, 1998 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Market Sheep and Lambs, Number by Weight Group, State and U.S., January 1, 1999 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Reliability of U.S. January 1 Sheep and Lamb Estimates (RMSE). . . . . . . .11 The next "Sheep and Goats" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on January 28, 2000. 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