Turkeys Raised ISSN: 1949-1972 Released September 28, 2018, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Turkeys Raised Down 1 percent from 2017 Turkeys Raised in the United States during 2018 is forecasted at 240 million, down 1 percent from the number raised during 2017. A combination of six states account for nearly two-thirds of the turkeys produced in the United States during 2018. The largest turkey producing state is Minnesota, at 42.5 million turkeys, up 1 percent from the previous year. North Carolina is down 5 percent from last year, producing 31.0 million turkeys. Arkansas produced 28.5 million turkeys, which is up 8 percent from the previous year. Indiana is up 3 percent from a year ago to 20.5 million turkeys. Missouri is down 8 percent from last year, producing 17.3 million turkeys. Virginia is up 1 percent from the previous year at 17.0 million turkeys. Number of Turkeys Raised - States and United States: 2017 and 2018 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number raised : 2018 as State :-------------------------------: percent : 2017 : 2018 : of 2017 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 head ----- percent : Arkansas .....................: 26,500 28,500 108 California ...................: 11,500 11,000 96 Indiana ......................: 20,000 20,500 103 Iowa .........................: 12,000 11,400 95 Michigan .....................: 5,100 5,400 106 Minnesota ....................: 42,000 42,500 101 Missouri .....................: 18,800 17,300 92 North Carolina ...............: 32,500 31,000 95 Ohio .........................: 6,700 6,700 100 Pennsylvania .................: 7,500 7,000 93 : South Dakota .................: 4,100 4,200 102 Utah .........................: 5,200 (D) (D) Virginia .....................: 16,800 17,000 101 West Virginia ................: 3,700 3,600 97 : Other States 1/ ..............: 30,100 33,900 113 : United States ................: 242,500 240,000 99 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- (D) Withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operations. 1/ Includes State estimates not shown and States withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operations. Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: Data for turkeys raised estimates are collected from all known operations raising 1,000 or more turkeys annually. NASS regional offices maintain a list of all known turkey grow-out operations. Approximately 340 turkey grow-out operations are contacted in September and February. The data collected were received by electronic data reporting, mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews. Estimating Procedures: Turkeys raised preliminary estimates include young turkeys intended for meat production and breeder turkeys reaching maturity during the calendar year. These estimates exclude turkeys lost to disease or those destroyed. Placement of turkey poults from the monthly Turkey Hatchery Survey and indications from the September Turkeys Raised Survey provide the basis for the preliminary estimates published in September. Final estimates, published in April, use indications from the February Turkeys Raised Survey in addition to updated hatchery data. Other indications for the final estimates are obtained from monthly slaughter totals and check-off data provided by state turkey or poultry associations. Revision Policy: Estimates from the previous year are subject to revision when final raised estimates are made in April. Revisions are primarily based on updated hatchery and slaughter data. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date. Reliability: Turkeys raised estimates are based on a census of all known turkey grow-out operations, and therefore have no sampling error. However, estimates are subject to errors such as omissions, duplication, mistakes in reporting or recording, and processing of the data. While these errors cannot be measured directly, they are minimized through strict quality controls in the data collection process, and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" for number of turkeys raised is shown in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for number of turkeys raised over the past 10 years is 1.0 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 240 million turkeys by more than 1.0 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 1.8 percent. Reliability of September Turkeys Raised Estimates [Based on data for the past ten years] ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :---------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Years : : : : : :------------------------------- : : :Average :Smallest:Largest : Below latest : Above latest ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 -------- ----- number ---- : Number raised ................: 1.0 1.8 2,053 500 5,100 4 6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov Travis Averill, Chief, Livestock Branch .......................................... (202) 720-3570 Tony Dorn, Head, Poultry and Specialty Commodities Section ....................... (202) 690-3223 Holly Brenize - Poultry Slaughter.............................................. (202) 720-0585 Alissa Cowell-Mytar - Cold Storage, Capacity of Refrigerated Warehouses ....... (202) 720-4751 Liana Cuffman - Catfish and Trout, Egg Products, Mink, Census of Aquaculture .. (202) 720-8784 Fatema Haque - Broiler Hatchery, Chicken Hatchery ............................. (202) 720-3244 Kim Linonis - Layers, Eggs .................................................... (202) 690-3676 Adam Peters - Turkey Hatchery, Turkeys Raised ................................. (202) 690-3237 Erica Sadler - Cost of Pollination, Honey, Honey Bee Colonies ................. 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