Pou 3-2 (9-09) Turkeys Raised National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released September 25, 2009, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Turkeys Raised" call Troy Marshall at 202-690-3237, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Turkeys Raised Down 8 Percent from 2008 Turkeys raised in the United States during 2009 is 250 million, down 8 percent from the number raised during 2008. The following six States are expected to account for about two-thirds of the turkeys produced in the United States during 2009: Minnesota, at 45.5 million turkeys, is down 5 percent from last year; North Carolina, at 37.5 million turkeys, is down 6 percent from last year; Arkansas, at 28.0 million turkeys, is down 10 percent from a year ago; Missouri, at 21.0 million turkeys, is unchanged from last year; Virginia, at 16.4 million turkeys, is down 9 percent from 2008; and California, at 15.0 million turkeys, is down 6 percent from last year. Turkeys: Number Raised by State and United States, 2008-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number Raised 1/ : 2009 State :-------------------------------------------------: as % of : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 Head ---------- Percent : AR : 31,000 28,000 90 CA : 16,000 15,000 94 IN : 14,500 14,500 100 IA : 9,000 D D MN : 48,000 45,500 95 MO : 21,000 21,000 100 NC : 40,000 37,500 94 OH : 6,000 5,200 87 PA : 11,500 9,000 78 SC : 12,500 11,700 94 SD : 4,700 4,500 96 UT : 4,100 3,300 80 VA : 18,000 16,400 91 WV : 3,800 3,200 84 : Oth Sts 2/ : 32,988 35,114 X : US : 273,088 249,914 92 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (D) Withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operations. (X) Comparison to 2008 is not applicable. 1/ Excludes young turkeys lost. 2/ Other States include State estimates not shown and States suppressed due to disclosure. Reliability of Turkeys Raised Estimates Survey Procedures: A random sample of roughly 1,000 U.S. producers was surveyed to provide data for these estimates. Survey procedures ensured that all turkey producers, regardless of size, had a chance to be included in the survey. Large producers were sampled more heavily than small operations. The data collected were received by electronic data reporting (EDR), mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews. Estimation Procedures: Turkeys raised preliminary estimates include young turkeys intended for meat production, as well as breeder turkeys which reach maturity during the calendar year. These estimates exclude turkeys lost to disease or those destroyed. Placement of turkey poults from the monthly Turkey Hatchery Survey and indications from the September Turkeys Raised Survey provide the basis for the preliminary estimates published in September. Final estimates, published in April, use indications from the February Turkeys Raised Survey in addition to updated hatchery data. Other indications for the final estimates are obtained from monthly slaughter totals and check off data provided by individual State turkey or poultry associations. Revision Policy: Estimates for the previous year are subject to revision when final raised estimates are made in April. Revisions are primarily based on updated hatchery and slaughter data, and at the U.S. level, are usually less than one half of one percent of the final estimate published in April. Estimates are also reviewed after data from the five year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after five-year census data revisions have been published. Reliability: Since all operations raising turkeys are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplication, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing of the data. The affects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through strict quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for number of turkeys raised over the past 10 years is 1.3 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 250 million turkeys by more than 1.3 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.3 percent. Reliability of August Turkeys Raised Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between :Number of Years : Root : 90 Percent : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Percent Percent 1,000 -------- 1,000 ------- Number : Number : Raised : 1.3 2.3 5,763 2,857 9 5,560 4 6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/Based on data for the past 10 years. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch.............................(202) 720-3570 Bruce Boess, Head, Poultry and Specialty Commodities Section......(202) 720-4447 David Colwell - Cold Storage.................................(202) 720-8784 Chris Hawthorn - Catfish Processing, Catfish Production, Trout Production, Census of Aquaculture, Egg Products, Mink.......................................................(202) 720-0585 Kim Linonis - Layers, Eggs...................................(202) 690-8632 Troy Marshall - Poultry Slaughter, Turkey Hatchery, Turkeys Raised, Broiler Hatchery, Chicken Hatchery, Honey..(202) 690-3237 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge. 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