Turkeys Raised ISSN: 1949-1972 Released September 24, 2010, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Special Note NASS is in the process of modifying report layouts in order to improve readability. This is the first issue produced using the new layout. This report issue is published using both layouts but future issues will only be produced using this layout. The previous layout is available on the NASS website: http://www.nass.usda.gov. Turkeys Raised Down 2 Percent from 2009 Turkeys raised in the United States during 2010 is 242 million, down 2 percent from the number raised during 2009. The following six States account for nearly two-thirds of the turkeys produced in the United States during 2010: Minnesota, at 47 million turkeys, is the largest turkey producing State; North Carolina, at 31 million turkeys, is down 13 percent from last year; Arkansas, at 28 million turkeys, is down 3 percent from a year ago; Missouri, at 17.5 million turkeys, is down 5 percent from last year; Indiana, at 16 million turkeys, is up 7 percent from a year ago; and Virginia, at 15.5 million turkeys, is down 9 percent from 2009. Number of Turkeys Raised - States and United States: 2009 and 2010 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number raised 1/ : 2010 as State :-------------------------------: percent : 2009 : 2010 : of 2009 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 head ----- percent : Arkansas .....................: 29,000 28,000 97 California ...................: 15,000 15,000 100 Indiana ......................: 15,000 16,000 107 Minnesota ....................: (D) 47,000 (X) Missouri .....................: 18,500 17,500 95 North Carolina ...............: 35,500 31,000 87 Ohio .........................: 5,200 4,700 90 Pennsylvania .................: 9,000 7,500 83 South Carolina ...............: 11,900 12,200 103 South Dakota .................: 4,500 4,600 102 : Utah .........................: 3,200 4,600 144 Virginia .....................: 17,000 15,500 91 West Virginia ................: 3,300 2,500 76 : Other States 2/ ..............: 80,259 35,813 (X) : United States ................: 247,359 241,913 98 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- (D) Withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operations. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Excludes young turkeys lost. 2/ Includes State estimates not shown and States withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operations. Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: A random sample of approximately 1,000 United States turkey producers was surveyed to provide data for these estimates. Survey procedures ensured that all turkey producers, regardless of size, had a chance to be included in the survey. Large operations were sampled more heavily than small operations. The data collected were received by electronic data reporting (EDR), mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews. Estimating Procedures: Turkeys raised preliminary estimates include young turkeys intended for meat production and breeder turkeys reaching maturity during the calendar year. These estimates exclude turkeys lost to disease or those destroyed. Placement of turkey poults from the monthly Turkey Hatchery Survey and indications from the September Turkeys Raised Survey provide the basis for the preliminary estimates published in September. Final estimates, published in April, use indications from the February Turkeys Raised Survey in addition to updated hatchery data. Other indications for the final estimates are obtained from monthly slaughter totals and check-off data provided by individual State turkey or poultry associations. Revision Policy: Estimates for the previous year are subject to revision when final raised estimates are made in April. Revisions are primarily based on updated hatchery and slaughter data. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations raising turkeys are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplication, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing of the data. The affects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through strict quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" for number of turkeys raised is shown in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for number of turkeys raised over the past 10 years is 1.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 242 million turkeys by more than 1.2 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.2 percent. Reliability of September Turkeys Raised Estimates [Based on data for the past ten years] ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :---------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Years : : : : : :------------------------------- : : :Average :Smallest:Largest : Below latest : Above latest ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 -------- ----- number ---- : Number raised ................: 1.2 2.2 2,643 9 5,560 6 4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch .......................................... (202) 720-3570 Bruce Boess, Head, Poultry and Specialty Commodities Section ................... (202) 720-4447 Doug Bounds - Poultry Slaughter, Turkey Hatchery, Turkeys Raised ............ (202) 690-3237 David Colwell - Cold Storage ................................................ (202) 720-8784 Chris Hawthorn - Catfish Processing, Catfish Production, Trout Production, Census of Aquaculture, Egg Products, Mink .. (202) 720-0585 Kim Linonis - Layers, Eggs .................................................. (202) 690-8632 Troy Marshall - Broiler Hatchery, Chicken Hatchery, Honey ................... 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