DAIRY February 27, 1995 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- DAIRY OUTLOOK is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. DAIRY OUTLOOK is a supplement to LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY, which is published monthly by ERS. LDP-D-6. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- This year is shaping up as one of rapid growth in milk production and strong domestic demand, and (at least for a while) commercial exports of butter. A modest (possibly small) surplus and only a moderate price decline is in sight. Strong Milk Output Ahead Milk production is projected to be strong in 1995, rising 2 to 3 percent from a year earlier. The robust milk prices of 1992-94, continuing adoption of bovine somatotropin (bST), and generally favorable feed supplies will support the expansion. A 3-percent rise in milk per cow is projected to easily outweigh a fractional decline in milk cow numbers. Structural adjustments may be particularly sensitive to price changes. Changes in milk cow numbers in recent years are consistent with the simultaneous existence of a relatively large group of producers on the verge of exit, and another group on the verge of entry or major expansion. Expected 1995 milk prices probably will cause declines in milk cow numbers to resume soon. Declines in milk cow numbers will be mitigated by a large herd of replacement heifers and continued low cull cow prices. On January 1 there were more than 43 heifers per 100 milk cows, continuing the relatively high ratio of recent years. Stable, relatively high replacement prices in recent years have encouraged retention of heifer calves. In addition, many exiting dairy farmers continue to raise heifers after disposing of their milking herd. The increase in bST use in 1995 is projected to be similar to 1994. After generally favorable initial experiences, experimenters (estimated to have been almost a third of herds in 1994) probably will inject more of their cows. Some producers will begin experimenting with bST, but these may be largely offset by early experimenters who conclude that bST use is not profitable for them at this time. The milk-feed price ratio is expected to run close to 1.6 in 1995, similar to 1994's moderately unfavorable level. These ratios will provide only modest incentive to boost concentrate feeding and milk per cow. However, more ample supplies of good forage should help milk per cow during the first half. In February, final estimates of 1989-92 milk production were released, as well as the normal revisions of 1993-94 data. In general, the revisions did not greatly change the picture, although they did imply more structural change in the early 1990's than previously thought. More Midwestern farmers exited (particularly in the Corn Belt), while western growth in the west was slightly faster. Wholesale Prices May Slip Spring milk supplies are expected to be large enough to reestablish stability in wholesale dairy markets at prices (except for butter) below current levels. However, commercial exports of butter, large Dairy Export Incentive Program (DEIP) exports of nonfat dry milk, and apparently strong domestic sales of major products hint that prices might be higher than currently expected, even if milk production expands briskly. Current market tightness is ambiguous because it may have resulted either from heavy final sales or advanced buying for protection against possible future tightness. Nonfat dry milk prices in most areas are expected to be near the support purchase price this spring. Contracts under DEIP are not projected to absorb all of the flush season surplus of powder. This loosening of the nonfat dry milk market and stronger Midwest milk supplies should erode cheese prices. Price weakness is particularly likely if pipeline holdings of cheese and nonfat dry milk have swollen recently. Butter prices probably will run near current levels if international prices decline seasonally as expected. Domestic milkfat users appear to have watched export developments very closely and protected supplies for their anticipated needs. Some price declines are even possible if butter starts to back up in late spring. However, further increases in international prices could push U.S. prices much higher by summer. Farm Prices To Be Below 1994 Manufacturing milk prices are expected to rise to a late winter peak, reflecting early winter increases in cheese and butter prices. If wholesale prices slip as expected, manufacturing values would then slip to a spring low. These manufacturing values imply that average milk prices will run about $1 per cwt below a year earlier. If wholesale markets stay tight, farm milk prices could be relatively flat through the spring. Additional counterseasonal price increases are not likely in the flush season of a year with rapid expansion in milk output. Significant seasonal price rises are projected for the second half of 1995. However, the effects of exports on prices probably will wane as domestic prices leave international prices behind. For the year, farm milk prices are projected to decrease 4 to 7 percent from 1994. The odds of a smaller decline probably exceed those of a larger decline at this time. Flat Retail Prices Expected Retail dairy prices are expected to run near a year earlier in 1995. A modest widening in the farm-retail price spread is projected to absorb the decline in farm milk prices. However, the uncertainties in this year's dairy markets might make retailers more cautious of wholesale and farm price increases than they were in 1994. Retail dairy prices in 1995 will again trail general price increases. Declining relative dairy prices have been a major contributor to growth in commercial use. Heavy Manufacturing Supplies Supplies of milk for manufacturing are expected to be large in 1995. Increases in milk production are projected to be widespread and sizable, while fluid sales increase only moderately. However, competition for these milk supplies probably will be brisk, as manufacturers of most major products will easily find outlets for increased production. Cheese production will be able to expand more easily in 1995 because of more western capacity and more Midwestern milk production. However, cheesemakers probably will continue to rely on western nonfat dry milk to supplement local milk supplies during much of the year. During the second half of the year, tight supplies of milkfat may constrain cheese production--the first time that has happened since the mid-1980's. Output of butter and nonfat dry milk is expected to grow at a slower rate than in 1994. Exports and domestic sales probably could absorb substantially more, but competition from other uses will limit milk solids available for residual uses. Commercial Stocks Remain Modest Commercial holdings of both milkfat and skim solids were relatively small in early 1995. Strong December-January commercial use and export commitments kept stocks from building, even though a seasonal surplus existed. The current market tightness will constrain seasonal rebuilding of stocks. Market uncertainty probably has raised the desired level of warehouse stocks, particularly for milkfat. Commercial exports, strong domestic use, and the exhausting of Government holdings create the potential for volatile butter and cream prices during the second half. However, strong winter movement and spring seasonal declines in milkfat production likely will keep butter stocks from rising much. Patterns for skim solids stocks probably will be similar, although prices of skim solids do not seem to have as much potential for volatility. Pipeline stocks probably are growing, and this would ease the need for warehouse inventories. Domestic users reportedly are wary of possible exports and likely are boosting holdings as well as arranging supply commitments. These pipeline stocks will be worked down this summer and autumn. The effects of exports on stocks will make interpretation of commercial stocks more difficult in coming months. Stocks typically are larger during periods of large exports because of the need to amass enough for shipment. During coming months, any unusual increase in stocks could be an accumulation of already committed product--or it could be a sign of product backing up. Current government stocks (except for small amounts already designated for specific donation uses) are virtually nonexistant for butter and very small for nonfat dry milk. If purchases resume this spring, government holdings may rise. Even so, such purchases probably would be relatively modest and would be moved into outlets fairly quickly. Commercial Sales to Remain Brisk Continued, although slower, economic growth and steady retail dairy prices are expected to continue to boost domestic sales. Sales of both milkfat and skim solids are projected to rise 2 or 3 percent. Larger use of milk solids by food processors is expected to augment direct sales of dairy products. Commercial use of butter will also be increased by commercial exports. Exports are projected to raise commercial use of milkfat by about 1 billion pounds, milk equivalent, but the rise could be much larger if international butter markets stay tight. Commercial use of butter and cheese continued to post sizable increases during December-January. With a fairly robust economy, holiday sales evidently were good, based on post-holiday restocking. Meanwhile, fluid milk sales continued to post slight gains. Surplus Inventories Remain Modest The 1995 surplus of skim solids is projected to be slightly larger than in 1994. Much of the skim solids removals will be as DEIP exports. However, substantial spring or summer purchases remain a definite possibility if DEIP exports cannot remove all of the flush season surplus. Removals of milkfat will not be much larger than last year and could be much smaller. If international butter prices decline soon, purchases could resume this spring and the 1995 surplus could be close to a year earlier. If international prices stay strong or if export agreements are larger than currently known, the 1995 surplus could be very small. Because of the effects of the international market, this year's milkfat surplus is mostly independent of domestic supply and demand. However, the domestic excess indicates the surplus that would remain without commercial exports. Without export demand, removals would be expected to be slightly higher in 1995, similar to removals of skim solids. International Markets Tighten In early 1995, international butter markets were fairly tight. Milk production was reduced by weather in Oceania. Last summer's drought in Eastern Europe slashed winter feed supplies, prolonging declines of recent years. The European Union (EU) has had little additional product available for export. Meanwhile, demand for imports has picked up. Russia and other republics of the former Soviet Union (FSU) are buying large quantities at prices that far exceed last year's discounted prices. Butter demand has grown in some of the Arab countries, as well as in some that typically had not imported. Demand for nonfat dry milk imports also has been strong, particularly in Central and South America. Mexican imports are uncertain but food assistance for the needy will use at least as much as a year earlier. Demand from East Asia also has been strong. Butter prices in early 1995 were up about a third from a year earlier, with nonfat dry milk prices up slightly less. The price increases resulted from tighter international market fundamentals and a weaker U.S. dollar. Prices have also been bolstered by the EU's quickness in reducing export refunds. Seasonally rising milk production this spring should reduce butter import demand in Eastern Europe, as well as make more butter available from the EU. International butter prices are expected to ease somewhat this spring but to remain relatively strong. However, seasonally falling U.S. Supplies, major supply and demand uncertainties, and low world stocks make price rises possible. International prices for nonfat dry milk probably have less potential variability. Weather in Oceania and Eastern Europe will have important effects, but demand conditions are expected to be more stable than for butter. Nonfat dry milk prices are projected to decline slowly as supplies grow seasonally. Larger Exports Expected in 1995 By the start of 1995, U.S. domestic butter prices were competitive with international prices. Attempts to reach commercial export agreements have been very common since then. Although little confirmed information is available, commercial butter exports in 1995 are expected to reach 50 million pounds and could go much higher. Commercial exports of other products could also be somewhat larger but are not expected to be substantial. Products incorporating skim solids will suffer a price disadvantage, and exports of high value products to Mexico will be hurt by economic problems. First-half DEIP exports of nonfat dry milk will be heavy. About 80 million pounds will be shipped under the 1994 DEIP, plus most of the 150 million pounds under the new DEIP covering the January-June period. Mexico and Algeria bought heavily under the new DEIP. Some of the newly added Asian countries quickly exhausted their allocations. This level of activity under DEIP was mostly a function of limited availability from other sources, particularly for quick shipment. However, uncertainty about how DEIP will operate after July 1 may also have played a role. The DEIP will then have to conform to the export subsidy disciplines of GATT. Activity under DEIP was also brisk for dry whole milk and anhydrous milkfat/butteroil. U.S. imports in 1995 probably will be about the same as in 1994, possibly a little weaker. Relative prices will makes the U.S. market much less attractive than has been typical. However, the United States is expected to be attractive in the long run, particularly because import access will expand under GATT. Foreign exporters may choose to maintain their U.S. market position at the expense of short-run profits. The Dairy Outlook Heading Toward 2000 The U.S. dairy industry will face dramatically different conditions during the next 5 years. New trade agreements, adoption of bST, and dramatic structural adjustments probably will make the industry look much different in 2000. Even so, the impacts of these changes may be no more than the forces that have shaken the industry since 1979. Much of what happens to the dairy industry during the rest of the century will be caused by changes in consumer demand. During the past 25 years, growth in commercial use has fairly consistently outpaced population increases, particularly since the early eighties. However, some long-standing demand trends appear to be changing. Growth in cheese sales during the next 5 years is projected to be slower than in the past, at least in proportional terms. Fewer opportunities remain for consumers to discover new cheeses or new uses for cheese. Even so, cheese is expected to remain a main contributor to growth in dairy use. The future of fluid milk sales is quite uncertain because long- established trends are changing substantially. Fluid milk sales are projected to edge higher but to show considerably less shift from whole milk to lowfat milk. Retail sales of butter are projected to continue to erode margarine sales--but at a much slower pace than in 1993-94. In recent years, use of nonfat dry milk, butter, and cream in processed foods has been larger. Dairy products (even skim solids) are inexpensive ways of improving the quality and flavor of many food products. If such use continues to grow, commercial use of dairy products will expand more than expected. Commercial use of dairy products is projected to grow about 2 billion pounds per year, just slightly more than population growth. Smaller declines in real retail prices and the maturing of the cheese market are expected to be the main reasons for slower expansion. International Markets and Trade International dairy markets during the next 5 years are expected to be less distorted than in the past. Subsidized exports will be limited by the GATT agreement and export supplies from Oceania, Eastern Europe, and South America are not expected to grow quickly. However, international market prices are projected to be generally below domestic prices. The GATT agreement will require gradual increases in access to the U.S. market, particularly for milkfat. Imports are projected to increase as access is expanded. The new tariff rate quotas are expected to be filled at near historical rates. Commercial export quantities are not projected to be substantial, although GATT and NAFTA will provide some boost. The U.S. will be competitive in some nearby and specialty markets, particularly with high value-added products. However, the amount of dairy products exported without subsidy is not expected to substantially affect the domestic supply-demand balance. The effects of the Dairy Export Incentive Program (DEIP) will wane because of GATT restrictions. Milk Production Gains Continue Bovine somatotropin (bST) obviously is a key factor in growth in milk per cow. The expected number of cows injected for the first time will be fairly modest for a few years following rapid adoption in 1994-95. The early experiences will be carefully scrutinized to discover optimal management practices. Use of bST will then again increase more rapidly. Milk-feed price ratios are not expected to be very favorable. Producers probably will be conservative about boosting concentrate feeding. Milk- feed price ratios are projected to run about 1.5 or 1.6, historically associated with below-trend growth in milk per cow. Even with bST, gains in milk per cow are projected to be about 2 percent per year. Structural adjustments will continue to be pronounced. However, expansion in western cow numbers is expected to slow from the torrid pace of recent years. Recent growth has relied on a combination of continued growth in established areas and development of local dairy industries where none existed before. There are now fewer prime pockets of underused potential for commercial alfalfa production. In addition, dairying has become large enough that further growth can boost input costs--as evidenced by this season's alfalfa prices. The western industry will continue to develop and grow, just slower. On the other hand, the traditional centers of milk production may be starting the most dramatic period of structural change since the adoption of bulk tanks. A new type of dairy farm is expected to emerge that is much larger, lowering capital costs per cow. The emerging dairy farm will use more purchased inputs (including labor) and have the clear divisions of jobs typical of western operations. However, likely continued reliance on wet forages may keep herd size smaller than in the West. These operations probably will be a significant force by 2000. Those farms unable to make the transition are expected to exit at a relatively rapid pace. Milk cow numbers are projected to decline about 1 percent annually. The expected 1-percent average annual growth in milk production would about match the rate of the early 1990's, but would trail the expansion of the 1980's. Milk Prices Remain Under Pressure Farm milk prices are expected to be under pressure during the next few years because of sizable surpluses. Toward the end of the decade, milk prices are projected to begin increasing--but at a slower rate than inflation. For the period, milk prices are projected to increase about 1 percent per year. Sporadic periods of large commercial exports are assumed away in the baseline projections. The expected gap in domestic and international prices is small enough that relatively strong international markets probably will occasionally push international prices of butter or nonfat dry milk to domestic levels. Commercial exports will briefly be large and import access may not be filled. Maybe twice a decade, export markets are likely to generate temporarily higher commercial use and prices. MILK & DAIRY PRODUCTS Jan-94 Nov-94 Dec-94 Jan-95 Milk production Production - 21 States, Mil. lb 10,870 10,624 11,090 11,235 Milk cow number - 21 States, Thou 8,092 8,098 8,094 8,092 Milk per cow - 21 States, Lb 1,343 1,312 1,370 1,388 Production - U.S., Mil. lb 12,689 12,329 12,869 13,115 Milk prices: Dol./cwt All milk 13.70 13.10 12.90 12.70 Milk for fluid use 13.70 13.10 12.90 12.70 Manuf. grade milk 12.30 12.00 11.50 11.40 Minn-Wisc (3.5% fat) 12.41 11.86 11.38 12.00 Wholesale prices: cents/lb Grade A butter 64.0 71.5 67.0 64.0 Amer. cheese, Wisc. assembly pt. 40-pound blocks 132.2 127.9 121.3 124.5 Barrels 127.1 119.6 Nonfat dry milk, C. States, 109.8 107.1 106.9 106.7 International prices: $/metric ton Butter 1,331 1,481 1,462 1,462 Nonfat dry milk 1,556 1,870 1,800 1,800 Beginning stocks: Mil. lb Commercial butter 14.6 11.0 9.8 12.2 Commercial American cheese 356.6 312.2 309.3 309.5 Other cheese 107.0 135.2 124.5 126.8 Manufacturers nonfat dry milk 79.9 93.0 89.1 103.5 All commercial (mf. basis) 4,550 4,374 4,198 4,263 All commercial (ss. basis) 5,650 5,745 5,520 5,704 All Government (mf. basis) 5,020 2,549 1,664 1,497 All Government (ss. basis) 161 483 392 340 Dec-93 Oct-94 Nov-94 Dec-94 Dairy product output: Mil. lb Butter 120.3 101.5 101.8 118.7 American cheese 246.3 243.1 240.1 255.5 Other-than-American cheese 312.6 330.8 320.9 321.6 Frozen products 1/, Mil. gal. 78.4 85.3 82.6 All products (mf basis 2/) 7,653 7,662 7,371 7,784 Nonfat dry milk 94.0 86.0 86.0 113 Commercial disappearance: Mil. l Butter 102.5 108.2 92.5 96 American cheese 250.6 240.1 242.8 257 Other-than-American cheese 346.7 363.5 364.2 352 Nonfat dry milk 48.8 62.5 57.5 71 All products (mf. basis) 12,159 12,976 12,366 12,448 USDA net removals: Mil. lb Butter 20.6 0.9 10.9 21 Cheese 0.2 1.8 1.9 0 Nonfat dry milk 20.7 28.3 32.4 27 All products (mf basis 2/) 468.0 68.0 282.0 489 All products (ss basis 2/) 258.0 373.0 417.0 347 Imports (mf basis 2/) 335 238 299 295 1/ Hard ice cream, ice milk, & sherbert 2/ Milk equivalent ------------------------------------------------------------ January 1 dairy cow inventory ---------------------------------------- Milk cows and Replace- Replace- Avg. # heifers that heifers 500 ments per of cows Year have calved lbs. and over 100 cows on farms ------------------------------------------------------------ --------------1,000--------- Thousand 1970 12,091 3,880 32.1 12,000 1971 11,909 3,843 32.3 11,839 1972 11,776 3,828 32.5 11,700 1973 11,622 3,872 33.3 11,413 1974 11,297 3,941 34.9 11,230 1975 11,220 4,087 36.4 11,139 1976 11,071 3,956 35.7 11,032 1977 10,998 3,887 35.3 10,945 1978 10,896 3,886 35.7 10,803 1979 10,790 3,932 36.4 10,734 1980 10,758 4,159 38.6 10,799 1981 10,849 4,342 40.0 10,898 1982 10,986 4,547 41.4 11,011 1983 11,047 4,545 41.1 11,059 1984 11,059 4,533 41.0 10,793 1985 10,777 4,770 44.3 10,981 1986 11,116 4,709 42.4 10,773 1987 10,466 4,305 41.1 10,327 1988 10,311 4,122 40.0 10,224 1989 10,137 4,117 40.6 10,046 1990 10,015 4,171 41.6 9,993 1991 9,965 4,093 41.1 9,826 1992 9,728 4,131 42.5 9,688 1993 9,658 4,176 43.2 9,589 1994 1/ 9,528 4,144 43.5 9,525 ------------------------------------------------------------ Milk cow cost Dairy ------------------------ ration Milk/feed Price Milk re- value price received quired to Year per cwt ratio 2/ per head buy a cow ------------------------------------------------------------ Dollars Pounds Dollars Cwt 1970 3.28 1.74 332 58 1971 3.44 1.71 358 61 1972 3.52 1.72 397 65 1973 4.88 1.46 496 69 1974 6.23 1.34 500 60 1975 6.25 1.40 412 47 1976 6.30 1.53 477 49 1977 6.20 1.57 504 52 1978 6.08 1.74 675 64 1979 6.68 1.80 1040 87 1980 7.42 1.76 1190 91 1981 8.02 1.72 1200 87 1982 7.45 1.83 1110 82 1983 7.88 1.72 1030 76 1984 8.16 1.65 895 66 1985 7.35 1.73 860 67 1986 7.00 1.79 820 66 1987 6.81 1.84 920 73 1988 7.74 1.58 990 81 1989 8.20 1.65 1030 76 1990 7.98 1.71 1160 84 1991 7.73 1.58 1100 90 1992 7.68 1.69 1130 86 1993 7.73 1.64 1160 90 1994 1/ 8.03 1.62 1165 89 -------------------------------------------------------------------- Average milk prices received Milk by farmers per cwt production All, Eligible Manufacturing Per wholesale for fluid grade Year cow Total market -------------------------------------------------------------------- Pounds Million ----------------Dollars------------- pounds 1970 9,751 117,007 5.71 6.05 4.70 1971 10,015 118,566 5.87 6.19 4.86 1972 10,259 120,025 6.07 6.38 5.08 1973 10,119 115,491 7.14 7.42 6.20 1974 10,293 115,586 8.33 8.66 7.13 1975 10,360 115,398 8.75 9.02 7.63 1976 10,894 120,180 9.66 9.93 8.56 1977 11,206 122,654 9.72 9.96 8.70 1978 11,243 121,461 10.60 10.80 9.65 1979 11,492 123,350 12.02 12.20 11.06 1980 11,891 128,406 13.05 13.23 12.01 1981 12,183 132,770 13.77 13.95 12.72 1982 12,306 135,505 13.61 13.80 12.60 1983 12,622 139,588 13.58 13.75 12.61 1984 12,541 135,351 13.46 13.61 12.49 1985 13,024 143,012 12.76 12.90 11.72 1986 13,285 143,124 12.51 12.62 11.46 1987 13,819 142,709 12.54 12.66 11.37 1988 14,185 145,034 12.26 12.36 11.15 1989 14,323 143,893 13.56 13.66 12.38 1990 14,782 147,721 13.74 13.89 12.34 1991 15,031 147,697 12.27 12.30 11.05 1992 15,574 150,885 13.15 13.19 11.91 1993 15,704 150,582 12.86 12.88 11.80 1994 1/ 16,128 153,622 13.04 13.08 11.87 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Grain and other concentrates fed to milk cows ------------------------------------ Dairy pas- Alfalfa ture feed hay prices Slaughter Total Per Per cwt conditions received cow prices fed cow of milk as percent by farmers per cwt 3/ Year produced of normal per ton ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thousand Pounds Pounds Percent -----Dollars----- tons 1970 24,870 3,979 42.40 81.00 24.70 21.32 1971 25,107 4,070 42.40 79.00 27.10 21.62 1972 25,162 4,298 41.90 80.00 31.45 25.21 1973 25,042 4,389 43.40 83.00 41.55 32.82 1974 24,586 4,384 42.60 75.00 52.58 25.56 1975 24,274 4,357 42.10 79.00 54.38 21.09 1976 25,083 4,545 41.70 70.00 60.81 25.31 1977 25,518 4,709 42.10 72.00 60.57 25.32 1978 26,018 4,803 42.80 76.00 52.25 36.79 1979 27,207 5,070 44.10 82.00 60.37 50.10 1980 28,433 5,260 44.20 70.00 72.00 45.73 1981 28,513 5,220 42.90 79.00 70.90 41.93 1982 29,661 5,380 43.70 83.00 72.73 39.96 1983 30,162 5,438 43.20 77.00 78.70 39.35 1984 28,449 5,253 42.00 74.00 79.48 39.81 1985 28,891 5,427 41.80 77.00 73.67 38.31 1986 29,913 5,534 41.80 80.00 64.85 37.18 1987 29,607 5,736 41.60 79.00 65.97 44.80 1988 29,853 5,820 41.20 59.00 82.51 47.91 1989 29,602 5,845 41.00 73.00 95.98 50.11 1990 32,402 6,397 43.70 74.00 92.56 53.32 1991 30,934 6,192 41.70 78.00 78.96 51.50 1992 31,572 6,417 41.60 82.00 75.45 49.69 1993 32,185 6,637 42.70 84.00 86.67 50.14 1994 1/ NA NA NA 80.00 93.63 45.03 Milk production by states and region State and region 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1/ Million pounds Northeast 27,223 27,509 28,401 28,051 27,870 Maine 614 621 642 663 639 New Hampshire 302 318 332 325 313 Vermont 2,368 2,408 2,510 2,504 2,452 Massachusetts 461 465 479 478 450 Rhode Island 34 34 33 32 32 Connecticut 515 523 541 543 531 New York 11,067 11,179 11,557 11,415 11,420 New Jersey 352 354 357 363 343 Pennsylvania 10,014 10,058 10,368 10,181 10,230 Delaware 123 130 138 147 142 Maryland 1,373 1,419 1,444 1,400 1,318 Lake States 39,451 38,801 39,137 37,972 37,299 Michigan 5,234 5,256 5,435 5,435 5,545 Wisconsin 24,187 23,770 23,844 22,844 22,412 Minnesota 10,030 9,775 9,858 9,693 9,342 Corn Belt 16,775 16,550 16,486 16,322 16,008 Ohio 4,667 4,695 4,695 4,620 4,520 Indiana 2,276 2,285 2,289 2,255 2,257 Illinois 2,559 2,554 2,525 2,553 2,549 Iowa 4,233 4,151 4,006 4,054 3,962 Missouri 3,040 2,865 2,971 2,840 2,720 Northern Plains 5,379 5,219 5,099 4,742 4,673 North Dakota 1,073 1,035 989 918 869 South Dakota 1,716 1,674 1,660 1,619 1,589 Nebraska 1,345 1,280 1,230 1,125 1,110 Kansas 1,245 1,230 1,220 1,080 1,105 Appalachian 8,073 8,026 7,980 7,833 7,636 Virginia 2,004 2,046 2,049 1,995 1,924 West Virginia 270 270 278 275 272 North Carolina 1,522 1,527 1,535 1,498 1,473 Kentucky 2,255 2,190 2,150 2,120 2,007 Tennessee 2,022 1,993 1,968 1,945 1,960 Southeast 4,926 4,881 5,016 5,026 5,129 South Carolina 447 405 416 418 411 Georgia 1,440 1,447 1,518 1,535 1,595 Florida 2,526 2,508 2,579 2,558 2,623 Alabama 513 521 503 515 500 Delta States 2,506 2,455 2,503 2,449 2,409 Mississippi 749 738 756 745 731 Arkansas 817 783 787 769 753 Louisiana 940 934 960 935 925 Southern Plains 6,784 6,641 6,821 7,167 7,494 Oklahoma 1,245 1,223 1,231 1,257 1,269 Texas 5,539 5,418 5,590 5,910 6,225 Mountain 9,486 9,935 10,644 11,268 13,016 Montana 325 330 327 307 307 Idaho 2,949 2,919 3,138 3,229 3,754 Wyoming 125 109 104 100 89 Colorado 1,323 1,335 1,416 1,454 1,563 New Mexico 1,524 1,917 2,174 2,621 3,325 Arizona 1,645 1,713 1,787 1,877 2,134 Utah 1,267 1,262 1,345 1,332 1,431 Nevada 328 350 353 348 413 Pacific 27,118 27,679 28,797 29,753 32,088 Washington 4,392 4,459 4,836 4,980 5,203 Oregon 1,611 1,659 1,712 1,692 1,714 California 20,947 21,407 22,092 22,927 25,019 Alaska 17 13 12 12 13 Hawaii 151 141 145 142 139 United States 147,721 147,696 150,884 150,583 153,621 1/ Preliminary. Milk cow numbers by state and region State and region 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1/ 1000 he Northeast 1,863 1,830 1,804 1,790 1,765 Maine 42 42 41 42 40 New Hampshire 20 21 21 21 20 Vermont 163 164 164 162 158 Massachusetts 31 31 31 31 29 Rhode Island 2 2 2 2 2 Connecticut 33 33 34 34 33 New York 755 745 735 727 718 New Jersey 26 25 25 25 24 Pennsylvania 680 659 646 640 639 Delaware 9 9 10 10 10 Maryland 102 98 95 96 92 Lake States 2,781 2,697 2,604 2,508 2,431 Michigan 340 335 333 330 328 Wisconsin 1,731 1,681 1,618 1,543 1,494 Minnesota 710 681 653 635 609 Corn Belt 1,172 1,132 1,102 1,089 1,066 Ohio 339 325 313 305 294 Indiana 156 148 144 144 145 Illinois 174 171 169 167 165 Iowa 280 275 268 264 265 Missouri 223 213 208 209 197 Northern Plains 421 407 385 359 343 North Dakota 85 82 78 71 68 South Dakota 140 136 130 125 120 Nebraska 97 92 88 82 77 Kansas 99 97 89 81 78 Appalachian 642 625 609 590 569 Virginia 141 140 137 132 130 West Virginia 24 23 23 23 22 North Carolina 100 99 99 94 90 Kentucky 206 195 184 179 168 Tennessee 171 168 166 162 159 Southeast 368 361 355 346 343 South Carolina 35 33 31 28 28 Georgia 111 107 102 101 102 Florida 180 180 181 178 176 Alabama 42 41 41 39 37 Delta States 212 208 205 201 197 Mississippi 62 61 60 59 57 Arkansas 69 67 65 63 61 Louisiana 81 80 80 79 79 Southern Plains 487 485 482 492 501 Oklahoma 101 99 96 98 99 Texas 386 386 386 394 402 Mountain 565 580 605 637 707 Montana 24 24 23 22 21 Idaho 179 178 183 189 208 Wyoming 10 9 8 7 7 Colorado 77 77 80 80 81 New Mexico 81 98 111 136 165 Arizona 94 95 98 102 116 Utah 80 79 82 81 86 Nevada 20 20 20 20 23 Pacific 1,483 1,504 1,543 1,579 1,607 Washington 237 237 249 257 261 Oregon 99 100 102 100 100 California 1,135 1,155 1,180 1,210 1,235 Alaska 1 1 1 1 1 Hawaii 11 11 11 11 11 United States 9,995 9,828 9,694 9,591 9,529 1/ Preliminary. Milk production per cow by state and region State and region 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1/ Northeast 14,610 15,036 15,744 15,668 15,788 Maine 14,619 14,786 15,659 15,786 15,975 New Hampshire 15,100 15,143 15,810 15,476 15,650 Vermont 14,528 14,683 15,305 15,457 15,519 Massachusetts 14,871 15,000 15,452 15,419 15,517 Rhode Island 14,167 14,167 14,348 13,913 14,455 Connecticut 15,606 15,848 15,912 15,971 16,091 New York 14,658 15,005 15,724 15,702 15,905 New Jersey 13,538 14,160 14,280 14,520 14,292 Pennsylvania 14,726 15,263 16,050 15,908 16,009 Delaware 13,820 14,130 14,375 14,700 14,200 Maryland 13,461 14,480 15,200 14,583 14,326 Lake States 14,186 14,387 15,030 15,140 15,343 Michigan 15,394 15,690 16,321 16,470 16,905 Wisconsin 13,973 14,140 14,737 14,805 15,001 Minnesota 14,127 14,354 15,096 15,265 15,340 Corn Belt 14,313 14,620 14,960 14,988 15,017 Ohio 13,767 14,446 15,000 15,148 15,374 Indiana 14,590 15,439 15,896 15,660 15,566 Illinois 14,707 14,936 14,941 15,287 15,448 Iowa 15,118 15,095 14,948 15,356 14,951 Missouri 13,632 13,451 14,284 13,589 13,807 Northern Plains 12,777 12,823 13,244 13,209 13,624 North Dakota 12,624 12,622 12,679 12,930 12,779 South Dakota 12,257 12,309 12,769 12,952 13,242 Nebraska 13,866 13,913 13,977 13,720 14,416 Kansas 12,576 12,680 13,708 13,333 14,167 Appalachian 12,575 12,842 13,103 13,276 13,420 Virginia 14,213 14,614 14,956 15,114 14,800 West Virginia 11,250 11,739 12,087 11,957 12,364 North Carolina 15,220 15,424 15,505 15,936 16,367 Kentucky 10,947 11,231 11,685 11,844 11,946 Tennessee 11,825 11,863 11,855 12,006 12,327 Southeast 13,386 13,521 14,130 14,526 14,953 South Carolina 12,771 12,273 13,419 14,929 14,679 Georgia 12,973 13,523 14,882 15,198 15,637 Florida 14,033 13,933 14,249 14,371 14,903 Alabama 12,214 12,707 12,268 13,205 13,514 Delta States 11,821 11,803 12,210 12,184 12,228 Mississippi 12,081 12,098 12,600 12,627 12,825 Arkansas 11,841 11,687 12,108 12,206 12,344 Louisiana 11,605 11,675 12,000 11,835 11,709 Southern Plains 13,930 13,693 14,151 14,567 14,958 Oklahoma 12,327 12,354 12,823 12,827 12,818 Texas 14,350 14,036 14,482 15,000 15,485 Mountain 16,786 17,138 17,596 17,689 18,423 Montana 13,542 13,750 14,217 13,955 14,619 Idaho 16,475 16,399 17,148 17,085 18,048 Wyoming 12,376 12,529 13,165 14,286 12,714 Colorado 17,182 17,338 17,700 18,175 19,296 New Mexico 18,815 19,561 19,586 19,272 20,152 Arizona 17,500 18,032 18,235 18,402 18,397 Utah 15,838 15,975 16,402 16,444 16,640 Nevada 16,400 17,500 17,650 17,400 18,356 Pacific 18,282 18,406 18,667 18,848 19,962 Washington 18,532 18,814 19,422 19,377 19,935 Oregon 16,273 16,590 16,784 16,920 17,140 California 18,456 18,534 18,722 18,948 20,258 Alaska 14,000 13,000 17,143 17,143 17,971 Hawaii 13,595 13,056 13,182 13,028 12,991 United States 14,780 15,028 15,565 15,701 16,121 1/ Preliminary. END-END-END