Lv Gn 2 (3-99) Wool and Mohair National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released March 25, 1999, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Wool and Mohair" call James Hand at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. 1998 Wool Production Down 8 Percent Shorn wool production in the United States during 1998 was 49.2 million pounds, down 8 percent from 1997. Sheep and lambs shorn totaled 6.43 million head, a decrease of 8 percent from 1997. The average price paid for wool sold in 1998 was $0.60 per pound for a total value of $29.4 million dollars, down 35 percent from $44.9 million dollars in 1997. Mohair production in the four major producing states (Arizona, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) during 1998 was 5.09 million pounds, down 26 percent from 1997. Goats and kids clipped, at 705,000 head, was down 25 percent from 1997. Average weight per clip was 7.2 pounds compared with 7.3 pounds a year earlier. Value of mohair was $12.6 million dollars, down 18 percent from 1997. Wool: Production, Price, and Value, United States, 1996-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Sheep : Weight : Shorn : Price : Year : Shorn : per : Wool : per : Value : 1/ : Fleece : Production : Pound : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head Pounds 1,000 Pounds Dollars 1,000 Dollars : 1996 : 7,215 7.78 56,159 0.70 39,270 1997 : 6,960 7.70 53,578 0.84 44,909 1998 : 6,426 7.66 49,239 0.60 29,406 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes shearing at commercial feeding yards. Mohair: Production, Price, and Value, 4-State Total, 1996-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Average : : Price : Year : Goats : Clip per : Production : per : Value : Clipped : Goat : : Pound : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head Pounds 1,000 Pounds Dollars 1,000 Dollars : 1996 : 1,189 6.7 8,009 1.93 15,428 1997 : 936 7.3 6,849 2.25 15,411 1998 : 705 7.2 5,089 2.48 12,623 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mohair: Production, Price, and Value by Selected States and 4-State Total, 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Average : : : : Goats : Clip : : Price : : Clipped : per : Production : per : Value 1/ State : : Goat : : Pound : :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head Pounds 1,000 Pounds Dollars 1,000 Dollars : AZ : 38 36 4.2 4.5 160 162 1.70 1.25 272 203 NM : 53 44 5.1 5.5 270 242 1.90 1.30 513 315 OK : 5 5 7.0 7.0 35 35 2.00 1.75 70 61 TX : 840 620 7.6 7.5 6,384 4,650 2.28 2.59 14,556 12,044 : 4 Sts : 936 705 7.3 7.2 6,849 5,089 2.25 2.48 15,411 12,623 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production multiplied by marketing year average price for individual States; 4-State value is summation of State values. Wool: Number of Sheep and Lambs Shorn, Weight per Fleece, and Production by State and United States, 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Sheep Shorn : Weight per Fleece : Production State :----------------------------------------------------------------- : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --- 1,000 Head --- --- Pounds --- 1,000 Pounds : AL : 5.5 4.5 6.2 5.6 34 25 AK : 1.2 1.2 7.5 6.7 9 8 AZ : 120.0 120.0 6.4 6.5 770 780 CA : 470.0 480.0 8.1 7.5 3,800 3,600 CO : 600.0 490.0 6.6 6.9 3,936 3,364 CT : 4.2 3.6 7.4 7.8 31 28 ID : 246.0 222.0 9.2 9.4 2,265 2,093 IL : 82.0 73.0 6.7 6.8 546 495 IN : 55.0 57.0 6.3 6.5 344 370 IA : 260.0 240.0 6.0 6.0 1,550 1,440 KS : 98.0 93.0 7.0 7.0 690 650 KY : 17.5 20.0 6.7 6.5 117 130 LA : 6.8 6.6 5.9 6.1 40 40 ME : 9.0 9.4 7.6 7.9 68 74 MD : 15.0 16.0 6.9 6.5 104 104 MA : 7.0 6.0 7.4 7.5 52 45 MI : 62.0 58.0 7.3 7.4 450 430 MN : 150.0 160.0 6.5 6.6 970 1,055 MO : 71.0 83.0 7.0 7.3 500 605 MT : 387.0 367.0 9.4 9.3 3,632 3,423 NE : 85.0 91.0 7.6 7.3 644 660 NV : 70.0 67.0 8.9 9.1 620 607 NH : 5.6 5.6 7.1 6.6 40 37 NJ : 9.0 8.5 7.0 7.1 63 60 NM : 280.0 265.0 9.1 9.0 2,556 2,379 NY : 51.0 45.0 6.7 6.8 343 307 NC : 9.2 9.2 6.2 6.1 57 56 ND : 98.0 98.0 8.8 9.2 860 900 OH : 135.0 126.0 6.5 6.6 873 835 OK : 51.0 40.0 6.5 6.0 330 240 OR : 290.0 210.0 6.5 6.6 1,880 1,380 PA : 64.0 69.0 6.9 6.8 440 470 SD : 390.0 355.0 8.5 8.3 3,302 2,950 TN : 11.0 11.0 6.1 5.9 67 65 TX : 1,500.0 1,300.0 7.3 7.1 10,950 9,230 UT : 344.0 337.0 9.3 9.4 3,213 3,157 VT : 12.4 15.0 7.1 7.3 88 110 VA : 49.9 45.0 6.0 6.4 300 288 WA : 41.0 39.0 8.7 8.5 355 330 WV : 40.0 35.0 6.0 6.0 240 210 WI : 73.0 62.0 7.5 7.5 546 467 WY : 650.0 650.0 8.8 8.5 5,690 5,540 : Oth Sts 1/ : 33.6 32.5 6.3 6.2 213 202 : US : 6,959.9 6,426.1 7.7 7.7 53,578 49,239 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ AR, DE, FL, GA, HI, MS, RI, and SC. Wool: Price and Value by State and United States, 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Price per Pound : Value 1/ State :--------------------------------------------------------------- : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ Dollars ----- ---- 1,000 Dollars --- : AL : 0.48 0.38 16 10 AK : 1.00 0.90 9 7 AZ : 0.58 0.47 447 367 CA : 0.79 0.61 3,002 2,196 CO : 0.89 0.53 3,503 1,783 CT : 0.55 0.55 17 15 ID : 0.74 0.66 1,676 1,381 IL : 0.43 0.25 235 124 IN : 0.34 0.26 117 96 IA : 0.42 0.26 651 374 KS : 0.58 0.42 400 273 KY : 0.41 0.32 48 42 LA : 0.58 0.33 23 13 ME : 0.50 0.55 34 41 MD : 0.68 0.50 71 52 MA : 0.60 0.40 31 18 MI : 0.44 0.31 198 133 MN : 0.43 0.34 417 359 MO : 0.45 0.33 225 200 MT : 1.01 0.78 3,668 2,670 NE : 0.52 0.41 335 271 NV : 0.90 0.58 558 352 NH : 0.65 0.70 26 26 NJ : 0.55 0.50 35 30 NM : 1.07 0.89 2,735 2,117 NY : 0.54 0.45 185 138 NC : 0.59 0.49 34 27 ND : 0.76 0.55 654 495 OH : 0.43 0.32 375 267 OK : 0.58 0.39 191 94 OR : 0.61 0.48 1,147 662 PA : 0.53 0.47 233 221 SD : 0.90 0.59 2,972 1,741 TN : 0.50 0.45 34 29 TX : 1.06 0.63 11,607 5,815 UT : 0.75 0.62 2,410 1,957 VT : 0.65 0.50 57 55 VA : 0.58 0.44 174 127 WA : 0.65 0.55 231 182 WV : 0.61 0.51 146 107 WI : 0.53 0.39 289 182 WY : 0.98 0.77 5,576 4,266 : Oth Sts 2/ : 0.55 0.45 117 91 : US : 0.84 0.60 44,909 29,406 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production multiplied by marketing year average price. U.S. value is summation of State values. 2/ AR, DE, FL, GA, MS, RI, SC. Reliability of Wool and Mohair Production Estimates Survey Procedures: A random sample of U. S. producers was surveyed to provide data for the number of sheep shorn and production estimates. Survey procedures ensured that all sheep and goat producers, regardless of size, had a chance to be included in the survey. Large producers were sampled more heavily than small operations. Data were collected from about 14,500 operators during the first half of January by mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews. Estimation Procedures: These sheep shorn, wool and mohair production estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. National and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from past years. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve the current estimate. Previous year estimates are subject to revision when current estimates are made. Inventory estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Department of Agriculture's five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations raising sheep and goats are not included in the sample for the inventory and production estimates, survey data are subject to sampling variability. Survey results for inventory and production estimates are also subject to non-sampling errors, such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table below. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for sheep shorn estimates over the past 10 years is 0.6 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 6.4 million head by more than 0.6 percent, or about 38,600 head. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 1.1 percent, or about 70,700 head (the 90 percent confidence level). Also shown in the table is a 10-year record showing the range between the first estimate and the latest estimate. Using estimates for Sheep and Lambs Shorn as an example, changes between the first inventory estimate and the latest estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 45,000 head, ranging from 2 to 92,000 head. The initial inventory estimate of Sheep and Lambs Shorn has been below the latest estimate 6 times and above 4 times in the last 10 years. Reliability of U.S. Sheep Shorn and Wool Production Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Years : Root : 90% : First and Latest :----------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item : Square : Level :--------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average :Smallest:Largest : Latest : Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ---------- 1,000 Head ---------- Number : Sheep : Shorn : 0.6 1.1 70.7 45.0 2.0 92.0 4 6 : : Percent --------- 1,000 Pounds --------- Number : Wool : Prod : 0.5 0.9 443.2 288.0 18.0 674.0 5 5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on data for the past ten years. The next "Wool and Mohair" report will be released in March 2000. 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