World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) U.S. Crops, Livestock, and Dairy Forecasts Revised (1/95) Stock #95501 Economic Research Service, United States Department of Agriculture ************************************************************************ This data product is available on: 1.44MB, DOS-compatible, 3.5" diskette(s), stock #95501, $35 or: CD-ROM, (earlier version of data only), stock #93050, $150 from: ERS-NASS, 341 Victory Drive, Herndon, VA 22070 Call 1-800-999-6779 or 1-703-834-0125. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. Note: Data distributed with this product may include both published and unpublished statistics in the public domain. Distribution in this form does not imply U.S. Department of Agriculture approval of a particular data series or statistic, nor does the Department attest to their accuracy. Moreover, the Economic Research Service makes no warranty that data supplied in this form are either accurate transcriptions from source materials or appropriate for a particular user purpose. ************************************************************************ General questions should be directed to Chung Yeh (202-720-8760) or David Stallings (202-720-5715). The data on the enclosed diskette present all estimates from the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report (WASDE) for U.S. crops from the first issue on September 17, 1973 through no. 296 (November 9, 1994). Livestock and dairy forecasts began with issue 133 (May 11, 1982). Data are those actually published. Some supply and use estimates were shown as ranges (alternative weather scenarios) in early issues. Only the midpoint of these ranges is shown in these spreadsheets. Prices are shown as high and low estimates. The precision shown in the various issues of WASDE is retained in the data. Updates will follow release of each year's November report. The spreadsheets are arranged by marketing year. The first projections, for marketing year 1973/74, begin with issue no. 1 (published on September 17, 1973) and continue for that marketing year until no. 21 (November 11, 1974), at which point we assume that further revisions will be minor (although this is not always the case). Marketing year 1974/75 then begins, with projections and estimates from issue no. 1 through issue no. 34 (November 11, 1975). Every issue is shown after the crop's first appearance, regardless of whether or not a crop appeared in that issue. This file is saved as ASCII file README.PLS and in Rich Text Format (RTF) README.RTF. Descriptions of the spreadsheets appear at the end. Cotton Cotton supply and use has been reported in the WASDE since issue no. 1. Many of the differences in reporting, over time, have been related to the "unaccounted" category in supply and use. "Unaccounted" represents the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of the Census data and the preceding season's supply and use. Up until issue number 169 (July 11, 1984), "unaccounted" was added to the difference between supply and use to come up with ending stocks. From issues 170 to 233 (August 10, 1989), there was no "unaccounted" reported in the WASDE; the difference between supply and use and ending stocks is assumed to be "unaccounted." Starting in issue 234 (September 12, 1989), "unaccounted" again appears, but must be subtracted from the difference between supply and use to get ending stocks. Soybeans and products Soybeans have been a part of the WASDE since the first issue. There are several instances in which ending stocks do not form the balance between supply and use for soybeans. þ In marketing year 1978/79, issues 84 (April 24, 1979) through 90 (September 13, 1979), the difference between supply less use and ending stocks was termed an "imbalance." þ In marketing year 1979/80, issues 103 through 106 include an extra 15 million bushels in ending stocks, a result of the "underestimate" of the 1978/79 crop. Soyoil and soymeal have also been included in the WASDE since the first issue. Rice Total rice first appeared in WASDE issue number 8. We have included residual (or unaccounted) with domestic use in order to be compatible with current reporting. The following instances implicitly included the residual in ending stocks: 1. Issues 31 through 34, for the 1974/75 marketing year, have ending stocks at 7.1 million hundredweight, where the difference between total supply and use is 12.2 million hundredweight. The difference is "unaccounted." 2. Issues 45 through 48, for the 1975/76 marketing year, have ending stocks at 36.9 million hundredweight, where the difference between total supply and use is 38.0 million hundredweight. The difference is "unaccounted." 3. Issues 59 through 64, for the 1976/77 marketing year, have ending stocks at 39.7 million hundredweight, where the difference between total supply and use is 46.6 million hundredweight (issues 59-60) and 45.5 million hundredweight (issues 61-64). The difference is "unaccounted." 4. Issues 74 through 78, for the 1977/78 marketing year, have ending stocks at 27.4 million hundredweight, where the difference between total supply and use is 29.3 million hundredweight (issue 74) and 29.4 million hundredweight (issues 76-78). The difference is "unaccounted." Other, similar differences occur for marketing years 1978/79 (issues 90-93), 1979/80 (issues 105-109), 1980/81 (issues 105-125), and 1981/82 (issues 117-132). Begining with WASDE number 134, the residual appeared as part of domestic use. Long grain and medium and short-grain rice first appeared in WASDE 172 (marketing years 1983/84 and 1984/85). The medium and short-grain showed only a minor imbalance in 1983/84, issues 172-75, where brokens were not included, and ending stocks are 800 thousand hundredweight lower than implied by the difference between supply and use. Feed Grains, in total Feed grains, total (barley, corn, oats, and sorghum) have appeared in WASDE since issue number 1. Early issues had total feed grain supply and use in million short tons. These have been converted to metric tons, in keeping with current practice. Corn Corn has appeared in WASDE since issue number 1. Stocks were first separated into the farmer-owned reserve, CCC inventory, and free stocks beginning with issue 117 (May 12, 1981). A special producer storage loan program for free stocks applied to marketing years 1984/5 through 1987/88. Sorghum, Barley, Oats Sorghum, barley, and oats first appeared individually in the WASDE for marketing year 1975/76 (September 13, 1976, issue 45). The first projections for these grains were made in that issue for 1977/78. Stocks were first separated into the farmer-owned reserve, CCC inventory, and free stocks beginning with issue 218 (May 10, 1988). Wheat Wheat has appeared in WASDE since issue number 1. Stocks were first separated into the farmer-owned reserve, CCC inventory, and free stocks beginning with issue 117 (May 12, 1981). A special producer storage loan program for free stocks applied to marketing years 1984/5 through 1987/88. Imports were included in total supply in issues 181 through 265 (May 10, 1985 to April 10, 1992). They can be imputed by subtracting beginning stocks and production from total supply. Wheat by Class Selected supply and use components for wheat (beginning stocks, production, total supply, total domestic use, exports, total use, and ending stocks) were made available by wheat class beginning in issue 131 (April 13, 1982). The classes are hard winter, hard spring, soft red, white, durum, and total by class. All are included in the same spreadsheet, arranged side-by-side. Livestock and Dairy Livestock and dairy data first appeared on May 11, 1982 (issue 133). Livestock and egg data are annual (calendar year). Dairy is on a fiscal year basis. Total red meats include veal, lamb, and mutton, in addition to beef and pork. Poultry includes mature chickens in addition to broilers and turkeys. Data was compiled by LaWanda Musgrove and Ruby King, under the direction of Chung Yeh. General questions should be directed to Chung Yeh (202-720-8760) or David Stallings (202-720-5715). Questions on specific commodities should be addressed to: Commodity Contact Telephone ---------------------------------------------------------- Cotton Russell G. Barlowe 202-720-9805 Rice Andrew C. Aaronson 202-720-9805 Wheat, feedgrains Gerald R. Rector 202-720-9805 Soybeans and products Jim L. Matthews 202-720-9805 Livestock and dairy James E. Nix 202-720-9805 ---------------------------------------------------------- All data are in Lotus 1-2-3 version 2.x spreadsheets (WK1): Commodity File name size(bytes) Dates and marketing years covered -------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton USCOTTON.WK1 104,167 September, 1973 to November, 1994; marketing years 1973/74 through 1994/95 (partial through November) Soybeans SOYBEANS.WK1 113,761 September, 1973 to November, 1994; marketing years 1973/74 through 1994/95 (partial through November) Soymeal SOYMEAL.WK1 75,409 September, 1973 to November, 1994; marketing years 1973/74 through 1994/95 (partial through November) Soy oil SOYOIL.WK1 75,932 September, 1973 to November, 1994; marketing years 1973/74 through 1994/95(partial through November) Rice RICE.WK1 128,066 September, 1973 to November, 1994; marketing years 1973/74 through 1994/95 (partial through November) Rice LONGRICE.WK1 33,788 September, 1984 to November, 1994; (long grain) marketing years 1983/84 through 1994/95 (partial through November) Rice M&SRICE.WK1 34,039 (medium and short grain) September, 1984 to November, 1994; marketing years 1983/84 through 1994/95 (partial through November) Feed grains, total USFEEDGR.WK1 158,704 September, 1973 to November, 1994; marketing years 1973/74 through 1994/95 (partial through November) Corn USCORN.WK1 143,951 September, 1973 to November, 1994; marketing years 1973/74 through 1994/95 (partial through November) Sorghum USSORGH.WK1 122,570 March, 1975 to November, 1994; marketing years 1975/76 through 1994/95 (partial through November) Barley BARLEY.WK1 122,205 March, 1975 to November, 1994; marketing years 1975/76 through 1994/95 (partial through November) Oats USOATS.WK1 121,668 March, 1975 to November, 1994; marketing years 1975/76 through 1994/95 (partial through November) Wheat USWHEAT.WK1 150,776 September, 1973 to November, 1994; marketing years 1973/74 through 1994/95 (partial through November) Wheat by class USWHTCL.WK1 142,596 April, 1982 to November, 1994; marketing years 1981/82 through 1994/95 (partial through November) Beef USBEEF.WK1 34,607 May, 1982 to November, 1994; calendar years 1982 through 1995 (partial through November) Pork USPORK.WK1 35,866 May, 1982 to November, 1994; calendar years 1982 through 1995 (partial through November) Total Red Meats REDMEAT.WK1 39,763 May, 1982 to November, 1994; calendar years 1982 through 1995 (partial through November) Broilers BROILERS.WK1 35,816 May, 1982 to November, 1994; calendar years 1982 through 1995 (partial through November) Turkeys TURKEYS.WK1 35,809 May, 1982 to November, 1994; calendar years 1982 through 1995 (partial through November) Poultry, total POULTOT.WK1 35,827 May, 1982 to November, 1994; calendar years 1982 through 1995 (partial through November) Red Meat and Poultry, total MEATTOT.WK1 39,836 May, 1982 to November, 1994; calendar years 1982 through 1995 (partial through November) Eggs EGGS.WK1 43,334 May, 1982 to November, 1994; calendar years 1982 through 1995 (partial through November) Milk MILK.WK1 85,159 May, 1982 to November, 1994; marketing years 1981/82 through 1994/95 (partial through November) Format files (*.FMT) Match spreadsheet names 119,328 Formatting for Lotus 1-2-3 v. 2.x spreadsheets. Readme README.PLS 11,298 This document in ASCII Readme README.W51 49,687 This document in Wordperfect 5.1 format Total 2,093,962 * * * * E N D * * * *