Potato Stocks
ISSN: 1949-1565
Released December 12, 2014, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA).
Potato Stocks Down 3 Percent From December 2012
The 13 major potato States held 263 million cwt of potatoes in storage
December 1, 2014, down 3 percent from 2 years ago. Potatoes in storage
accounted for 66 percent of the 2014 fall storage States' production, the
same as 2 years earlier. Potato disappearance, at 136 million cwt, was down 2
percent from December 1, 2012. Season-to-date shrink and loss, at
13.8 million cwt, was the same as 2012. Processors in the 9 major States used
74.4 million cwt of potatoes for the season, down 1 percent from December
2012.
Fall Potato Production and Stocks - 13 Major States: December 1, 2013-2014
[Stocks include processor holdings and most of the seed to plant following year's crop. Seed usage for all seasons in 2013
totaled 25.6 million cwt]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Crop of 2013 : Crop of 2014
:-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: : : December stocks : : : December stocks
State : : Stocks : as a percent : : Stocks : as a percent
: Production : December 1, : of : Production : December 1, : of
: : 2013 : production : : 2014 : production
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: ------ 1,000 cwt ------ percent ------- 1,000 cwt ------- percent
:
California .........: 3,504 (NA) (NA) 4,038 2,100 52
Colorado ...........: 20,304 (NA) (NA) 23,735 17,700 75
Idaho ..............: 131,131 (NA) (NA) 134,240 94,000 70
Maine ..............: 15,660 (NA) (NA) 15,403 11,600 75
Michigan ...........: 15,840 (NA) (NA) 15,725 9,400 60
Minnesota ..........: 17,325 (NA) (NA) 16,800 11,000 65
Montana ............: 3,441 (NA) (NA) 3,424 3,300 96
Nebraska ...........: 8,418 (NA) (NA) 6,364 3,900 61
New York ...........: 4,959 (NA) (NA) 4,560 2,000 44
North Dakota .......: 22,620 (NA) (NA) 24,255 17,000 70
:
Oregon .............: 21,582 (NA) (NA) 22,815 17,400 76
Washington .........: 96,000 (NA) (NA) 99,825 57,000 57
Wisconsin ..........: 26,040 (NA) (NA) 27,720 17,000 61
:
Total ..............: 386,824 (NA) (NA) 398,904 263,400 66
:
Klamath Basin 1/ ...: (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 4,600 (NA)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(NA) Not available.
1/ Includes potato stocks in California and Klamath Co. Oregon.
Fall Potato Production and Stocks - 13 Major States: 2005-2014
[Blank cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Crop : : : : : : : :
year : Production : December 1 : January 1 : February 1 : March 1 : April 1 : May 1 : June 1
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: 1,000 cwt
:
2005 ....: 375,118 253,800 220,500 189,100 155,500 115,700 75,900 41,560
2006 ....: 389,527 258,900 225,800 192,200 159,500 120,900 79,050 44,460
2007 ....: 397,753 265,500 232,300 199,300 163,400 125,500 83,960 50,420
2008 ....: 369,866 243,700 213,200 183,900 152,700 115,800 78,100 45,300
2009 ....: 383,962 265,800 234,300 203,500 169,700 128,700 89,610 55,120
2010 ....: 357,467 240,200 209,400 180,300 148,500 111,000 72,000 41,320
2011 ....: 382,318 253,000 (NA) 187,500 (NA) 115,650 (NA) 43,340
2012 ....: 410,367 271,500 (NA) 204,600 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
2013 ....: 386,824 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 119,050 (NA) 46,885
2014 ....: 398,904 263,400
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(NA) Not available.
Fall Potato Stocks by Type as Percent of Total Stocks - 10 Selected States:
December 1, 2013-2014
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Potato types
:---------------------------------------------------------------------
: Reds :Round whites : Long whites : Yellows : Russets
State :---------------------------------------------------------------------
: 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: percent
:
Colorado ...........: (NA) 5 (NA) 13 (NA) - (NA) 10 (NA) 72
Idaho ..............: (NA) 2 (NA) 2 (NA) 2 (NA) 1 (NA) 93
Maine ..............: (NA) 5 (NA) 28 (NA) 5 (NA) 6 (NA) 56
Michigan ...........: (NA) - (NA) 85 (NA) - (NA) 1 (NA) 14
Minnesota ..........: (NA) 18 (NA) 8 (NA) 1 (NA) 2 (NA) 71
New York ...........: (NA) 1 (NA) 85 (NA) 1 (NA) 1 (NA) 12
North Dakota .......: (NA) 31 (NA) 22 (NA) 5 (NA) 1 (NA) 41
Oregon .............: (NA) 2 (NA) 4 (NA) 1 (NA) 2 (NA) 91
Washington .........: (NA) 3 (NA) 5 (NA) 4 (NA) 2 (NA) 86
Wisconsin ..........: (NA) 9 (NA) 32 (NA) 2 (NA) 2 (NA) 55
:
10 State average ...: (NA) 6 (NA) 12 (NA) 2 (NA) 2 (NA) 78
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
- Represents zero.
(NA) Not available.
Potato Shrinkage and Loss - 13 Fall Storage States: 2011-2014
[Blank cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Crop : To : To : To : To : To : To : To
year : December 1 : January 1 : February 1 : March 1 : April 1 : May 1 : June 1
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: million cwt
:
2011 ...: 13.7 16.4 18.8 20.8 22.9 24.5 25.9
2012 ...: 13.8 16.4 18.9 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
2013 ...: (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 21.9 25.0 27.6
2014 ...: 13.8
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(NA) Not available.
Quantity of Potatoes Used for Processing - 9 Major States: 2012-2014
[Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Blank cells indicate
estimation period has not yet begun]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
State and : To : To : To : To : To : To : To :
crop year : December 1 : January 1 : February 1 : March 1 : April 1 : May 1 : June 1 : Season
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: 1,000 cwt
:
Idaho and Oregon, Malheur :
2012 ......................: 27,900 34,740 41,890 49,980 57,750 65,430 73,430 89,780
2013 ......................: 25,770 32,060 39,090 46,320 53,755 61,780 70,425 85,280
2014 ......................: 27,685
:
Maine 1/ :
2012 ......................: 1,890 2,380 3,005 3,600 4,290 5,075 5,740 7,720
2013 ......................: 1,570 1,990 2,510 3,060 3,680 4,240 4,800 6,315
2014 ......................: 1,410
:
Washington and Oregon, Other :
2012 ......................: 31,295 37,730 43,820 51,765 57,915 64,500 70,470 80,400
2013 ......................: 31,575 37,990 45,420 52,690 59,025 64,905 72,325 80,655
2014 ......................: 31,870
:
Other States 2/ :
2012 ......................: 14,270 16,765 19,785 22,520 25,170 28,320 31,100 40,395
2013 ......................: 11,365 14,280 17,470 20,475 23,695 26,990 30,195 37,425
2014 ......................: 13,440
:
Total :
2012 ......................: 75,355 91,615 108,500 127,865 145,125 163,325 180,740 218,295
2013 ......................: 70,280 86,320 104,490 122,545 140,155 157,915 177,745 209,675
2014 ......................: 74,405
:
Dehydrated 3/ :
2012 ......................: 13,965 17,640 22,000 26,105 30,135 34,610 38,945 47,305
2013 ......................: 12,065 15,875 19,835 23,380 27,140 31,095 34,895 44,385
2014 ......................: 12,935
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1/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. Amounts exclude quantities used for potato chips.
2/ Other States include Colorado, Minnesota, Nevada, North Dakota, and Wisconsin. Monthly amounts exclude quantities used for potato
chips in Wisconsin.
3/ Dehydrated products except starch and flour. Included in above totals. Includes Colorado, Idaho, Minnesota, Oregon, and
Washington.
Statistical Methodology
Survey Procedures: Potato stocks surveys are conducted in 13 major fall
potato producing States, which account for 90 percent of the United States
all potato production. Growers, processors, and storage facilities are
contacted during the months of December, February, April and June to obtain
the quantity of potatoes stored as of the first of the month, as well as
shrinkage and loss information. Processing data is collected in nine States
(Colorado, Idaho, Maine, Minnesota, Nevada, North Dakota, Oregon, Washington,
and Wisconsin).
Estimating Procedures: Information obtained from the potato stocks surveys
along with federal administrative data is used to establish estimates of
stocks, shrinkage and loss, and processing usage. These estimates are
reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical
estimates.
Revision Policy: Stocks, processing, and shrinkage and loss estimates for the
previous estimating period are subject to revision based on late and/or
updated information. At the end of the marketing season, all information
available, including disposition data, will be thoroughly reviewed and any
necessary revisions for the entire crop year will be published in the
Potatoes Annual Summary.
Reliability: Survey indications are subject to sampling variability because
all operations holding potato stocks are not included in the sample. Survey
results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omission,
duplication, imputation for missing data, and mistakes in reporting,
recording, and processing the data. These errors cannot be measured directly,
but they are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection
process and a careful review of all reported data for consistency and
reasonableness.
To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the December 1 stocks
estimate, the "Root Mean Square Error", a statistical measure based on past
performance, is computed. The deviation between the December 1 stocks
estimate and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final
estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20 year
period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the
"Root Mean Square Error". Probability statements can be made concerning
expected differences in the current estimate relative to the final end-of-
season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's estimate are not
different from those influencing recent years.
The "Root Mean Square Error" for the December 1 stocks estimate is
1.8 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate
of 263 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than
1.8 percent, or approximately 4.73 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10
(90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed
3.1 percent, or approximately 8.15 million cwt.
Changes between the December 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates
during the past 20 years have averaged 3.52 million cwt, ranging from
110,000 cwt to 9.20 million cwt. During the 20 year period, the December 1
estimate has been below the final estimate 13 times, and above 6 times.
Fall Potato Preliminary and Final December 1 Stocks - United States: 2004-2014
Crop Years
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Crop : Preliminary : Percent of : Final
year : stocks : final : stocks
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: 1,000 cwt percent 1,000 cwt
:
2004 .....: 271,600 100.2 271,100
2005 .....: 253,400 99.8 253,800
2006 .....: 252,300 97.5 258,900
2007 .....: 270,000 101.7 265,500
2008 .....: 242,200 99.4 243,700
2009 .....: 264,500 99.5 265,800
2010 .....: 232,300 96.7 240,200
2011 .....: 249,900 98.8 253,000
2012 .....: 280,300 103.2 271,500
2013 .....: (NA) (NA) (NA)
2014 .....: 263,400 (NA) (NA)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(NA) Not available.
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