Pot 1-2 (5-09)
Potato
Stocks
National Agricultural Statistics Service
USDA
Washington, D.C.
Released May 15, 2009, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For
information on "Potato Stocks" call Suzanne Avilla at (202) 720-5412, office
hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.
Potato Stocks Down 10 Percent From May 2008
The 13 major potato States held 75.4 million cwt of potatoes in storage
May 1, 2009, down 10 percent from a year ago and 5 percent below May 1, 2007.
Potatoes in storage accounted for 21 percent of the 2008 fall storage States'
production, unchanged from May 1, 2008. Klamath Basin stocks totaled 750
thousand cwt on May 1, 2009, up 32 percent from a year ago. Klamath Basin
stocks include potatoes stored in California and Klamath County, Oregon.
Potato disappearance, at 292 million cwt, was 7 percent below May 1, 2008 and
down 6 percent from 2007. Season-to-date shrink and loss, at 22.3 million
cwt, was down 7 percent from the same date in both 2007 and 2008. Processors
in the 9 major States have used 149 million cwt of potatoes this season, down
10 percent from the same period last year and down 9 percent from 2 years
ago. Dehydrating usage accounted for 28.3 million cwt of the total
processing, down 16 percent from last year and 23 percent below the same
period in 2007.
Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 13 Major States,
May 1, 2008-2009 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Crop of 2007 : Crop of 2008
:--------------------------------------------------------------
State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : Stocks : May %
: Prod : May 1, : of : Prod : Apr 1, : May 1, : of
: :2008 2/ : Prod : : 2009 :2009 2/ : Prod
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: --- 1,000 Cwt -- Percent ------- 1,000 Cwt ------- Percent
:
CA : 3,792 460 12 3,939 800 500 13
CO : 20,981 4,500 21 21,338 8,700 5,300 25
ID : 130,010 35,000 27 114,805 42,500 30,000 26
ME : 16,668 4,300 26 14,769 5,600 3,700 25
MI : 14,700 800 5 14,875 1,900 700 5
MN : 21,560 4,300 20 20,400 6,500 4,400 22
MT : 3,696 3,465 2,100
NE 3/ : 8,217 1,000 12 8,342 2,200 1,100 13
NY : 5,216 5,696 450
ND : 23,660 4,200 18 22,680 6,100 3,500 15
OR : 20,293 6,400 32 18,676 7,400 5,300 28
WA : 100,800 19,000 19 93,000 23,700 16,500 18
WI : 28,160 3,100 11 25,730 6,500 3,600 14
:
Other States : 900 800
:
13 States 3/ : 397,753 83,960 21 367,715 114,450 75,400 21
:
Klamath Basin 4/ : 570 1,450 750
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1/ Stocks include processor holdings and most of the seed to plant following
year's crop. Seed usage for all seasons in 2008 totaled 24.5 million cwt.
2/ Missing stocks combined into "Other States".
3/ April 1, 2009 stocks revised.
4/ Includes potato stocks in CA and Klamath Co., OR. Included in the 13
State total.
Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 13 Major States, 1999-2008
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Crop : : : : : : : :
Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: 1,000 Cwt
:
1999 1/ : 420,567 275,100 239,910 207,150 169,620 128,410 86,915 47,220
2000 1/ : 458,827 310,300 275,270 234,260 197,670 153,520 109,160 61,270
2001 1/ : 387,033 258,750 224,680 192,090 158,590 119,950 81,200 42,990
2002 1/ : 407,085 264,485 231,490 199,020 165,210 125,770 83,040 45,880
2003 1/ : 403,566 267,900 233,590 200,230 166,280 126,110 85,000 46,020
2004 1/ : 404,017 271,100 236,700 203,490 168,020 128,900 88,550 51,700
2005 : 375,118 253,800 220,500 189,100 155,500 115,700 75,900 41,560
2006 : 389,527 258,900 225,800 192,200 159,500 120,900 79,050 44,460
2007 : 397,753 265,500 232,300 199,300 163,400 125,500 83,960 50,420
2008 2/ : 367,715 243,300 212,800 183,500 151,400 114,450 75,400
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1/ 15 major States.
2/ April 1, 2009 stocks revised.
Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, 9 States, 2006-2008 1/
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State and : To : To : To : To : To : To : To :
Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 : Season
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: 1,000 Cwt
:
ID & OR-Mal :
2006 : 27,090 34,070 41,350 48,940 56,650 63,680 71,220 85,630
2007 : 26,230 33,250 40,310 48,660 55,460 63,000 70,700 88,030
2008 : 22,360 28,980 35,430 42,150 49,030 55,570
:
ME 2/ :
2006 : 1,785 2,390 2,940 3,490 4,215 4,840 5,500 7,675
2007 : 1,700 2,170 2,815 3,440 3,990 4,670 5,240 7,550
2008 : 1,635 2,240 2,890 3,505 4,000 4,795
:
WA & OR-Oth :
2006 : 30,980 37,060 42,190 49,930 56,690 63,170 70,410 77,355
2007 : 30,595 36,940 42,350 50,165 57,160 67,690 72,380 82,770
2008 : 32,570 37,750 42,490 49,795 56,350 62,620
:
Other Sts 3/ :
2006 : 14,355 17,800 21,415 24,690 28,205 31,560 35,040 43,565
2007 : 15,040 17,535 20,755 23,900 26,650 29,710 32,600 39,430
2008 : 12,535 15,190 18,250 21,150 24,140 25,900
:
Total :
2006 : 74,210 91,320 107,895 127,050 145,760 163,250 182,170 214,225
2007 : 73,565 89,895 106,230 126,165 143,260 165,070 180,920 217,780
2008 : 69,100 84,160 99,060 116,600 133,520 148,885
:
Dehydrated 4/:
2006 : 14,590 19,250 23,635 27,885 32,210 36,480 40,915 49,375
2007 : 12,815 16,785 21,040 25,350 29,500 33,650 37,975 46,660
2008 : 10,745 14,570 18,405 21,535 24,945 28,255
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in
which the potatoes were produced.
2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. Amounts exclude quantities used for
potato chips.
3/ CO, MN, NV, ND, and WI. Monthly amounts exclude quantities used for
potato chips in WI.
4/ Dehydrated products except starch and flour. Includes CO, ID, NV, OR,
WA, and WI.
Potatoes: Shrinkage and Loss, 13 Fall Storage States, 2005-2008
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Crop : To : To : To : To : To : To : To
Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Million Cwt
:
2005 : 12.7 15.0 16.8 18.4 20.2 22.0 23.7
2006 : 13.2 16.1 18.4 20.4 22.3 24.0 25.5
2007 : 14.2 16.4 18.4 20.2 22.1 24.0 25.3
2008 : 12.7 14.9 16.8 18.7 20.6 22.3
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Reliability of May 1 Stocks Estimates
To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the May 1 stocks estimate,
the "Root Mean Square Error", a statistical measure based on past
performance, is computed. The deviation between the May 1 stocks estimate
and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate.
The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20 year period is
computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root
Mean Square Error". Probability statements can be made concerning expected
differences in the current estimate relative to the final end-of-season
estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's estimate are not
different from those influencing recent years.
The "Root Mean Square Error" for the May 1 stocks estimate is 7.0 percent.
This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of
75.4 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than
7.0 percent, or approximately 5.28 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10
(90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed
12.2 percent, or approximately 9.20 million cwt.
Changes between the May 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates during the
past 20 years have averaged 4.12 million cwt, ranging from 140,000 cwt to
11.5 million cwt. During the 20-year period, the May 1 estimate has been
below the final estimate 15 times and above 5 times.
Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final May 1 Stocks,
United States, Crop of 1998-2008
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final
Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt
:
1998 : 87,640 99.7 87,895
1999 : 85,670 98.6 86,915
2000 : 111,425 102.1 109,160
2001 : 91,140 112.2 81,200
2002 : 83,180 100.2 83,040
2003 : 84,800 99.8 85,000
2004 : 86,990 98.2 88,550
2005 : 72,950 96.1 75,900
2006 : 73,200 92.6 79,050
2007 : 92,710 110.4 83,960
2008 : 75,400
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