Pot 1-2 (3-02)
Potato
Stocks
National Agricultural Statistics Service
USDA
Washington, D.C.
Released March 14, 2002, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For
information on "Potato Stocks" call Arvin Budge at (202) 720-4285, office
hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.
March Potato Stocks Down 15 Percent
The 15 major potato States held 168 million cwt of potatoes in storage March
1, 2002, down 15 percent from last year and 1 percent below 2000. Storage
accounts for 43 percent of the 2001 fall storage States' production, the same
percentage as a year ago. Disappearance of 226 million cwt, is down
13 percent from last year and the lowest since 1993. Processors in the 9
major States used 114 million cwt of potatoes this season, down 13 percent
from a year ago.
Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1992-2001
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Crop : : : : : : : :
Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 :Jun 1 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: 1,000 Cwt
:
1992 : 368,516 246,820 215,990 184,560 152,795 115,785 75,040
1993 : 376,954 249,410 217,300 185,490 153,435 115,170 72,860
1994 : 410,839 273,290 238,560 202,470 169,570 129,825 87,600
1995 : 394,785 256,710 223,550 189,360 156,020 115,855 75,870
1996 : 443,704 295,100 261,320 226,080 189,210 147,635 103,210
1997 : 413,513 278,830 246,550 212,562 175,870 134,190 92,840
1998 : 423,170 280,910 246,230 209,640 173,650 131,220 87,895 50,270
1999 : 420,567 275,100 239,910 207,150 169,620 128,410 86,915 47,220
2000 : 458,827 310,300 275,270 234,260 197,670 153,520 109,160 61,240
2001 : 394,161 266,520 233,420 201,750 167,870
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Data not available prior to 1998.
Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, 9 States, 1998-2001 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
State and : : : : : : : :
Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 : Season
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: 1,000 Cwt
:
ID & OR-Mal :
1998 : 27,510 34,700 42,670 51,210 60,040 68,550 76,410 92,860
1999 : 27,970 34,490 40,790 49,220 57,820 66,080 74,110 88,210
2000 : 29,290 35,720 43,470 50,580 58,910 66,760 75,270 93,460
2001 : 20,940 27,330 33,620 40,860
:
ME 2/ :
1998 : 1,430 1,935 2,530 2,985 3,595 4,180 4,705 5,945
1999 : 1,270 1,700 2,385 3,070 3,765 4,560 5,150 6,670
2000 : 1,845 2,475 3,105 3,695 4,225 4,760 5,340 7,015
2001 : 1,935 2,420 3,080 3,665
:
WA & OR-Oth :
1998 : 33,630 38,890 45,650 53,290 60,930 67,180 74,190 83,730
1999 : 33,320 39,620 45,500 53,350 61,080 67,230 74,840 83,210
2000 : 34,770 40,970 47,720 55,250 62,860 69,850 78,010 91,130
2001 : 29,270 35,310 40,540 47,910
:
Oth Sts 3/ 4/:
1998 : 11,570 14,465 18,030 20,850 24,850 28,190 31,365 39,865
1999 : 12,455 15,035 17,950 20,855 24,305 27,220 30,410 35,940
2000 : 12,665 16,215 18,975 22,095 25,410 28,695 31,765 39,020
2001 : 12,715 15,905 18,765 21,915
:
Total 4/ :
1998 : 74,140 89,990 108,880 128,335 149,415 168,100 186,670 222,400
1999 : 75,015 90,845 106,625 126,495 146,970 165,090 184,510 214,030
2000 : 78,570 95,380 113,270 131,620 151,405 170,065 190,385 230,625
2001 : 64,860 80,965 96,005 114,350
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in
which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for
potato chips in ME, MI, and WI.
2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only.
3/ MN, NV, ND, SD, and WI in 2000 and 2001. MI, MN, ND, and WI in 1998 and
1999.
4/ February 1 data corrected for the 2001 crop.
Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks on March 1, 2001-2002 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Crop of 2000 : Crop of 2001
:----------------------------------------------------------------
State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : %
: Prod : Mar 1, : of : Prod : Mar 1, : of
: : 2001 : Prod : : 2002 : Prod
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent
:
CA : 3,741 1,300 35 1,113 200 18
CO : 27,972 13,000 46 21,357 9,400 44
ID : 152,320 76,500 50 127,980 66,000 52
ME : 17,920 8,700 49 16,120 7,000 43
MI : 14,963 3,400 23 14,030 3,200 23
MN : 21,240 10,100 48 18,425 7,900 43
MT : 3,503 2,800 80 3,040 2,550 84
NE 2/ : 10,127 8,512
NY : 5,964 1,000 17 5,942 650 11
ND : 26,950 11,500 43 26,400 12,300 47
OH 2/ : 1,134 984
OR : 30,683 17,000 55 20,730 11,500 55
PA : 3,510 830 24 3,173 660 21
WA : 105,000 37,500 36 94,400 32,500 34
WI : 33,800 10,500 31 31,955 11,500 36
:
Oth Sts : 3,540 2,510
:
15 States : 458,827 197,670 43 394,161 167,870 43
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Stocks include processor holdings and seed to plant 2002 crop. Seed usage
in 2001 totaled 27.4 million cwt.
2/ Combined into "Other States".
Potatoes: Shrinkage and Loss, 15 Fall Storage States, 1998-2001
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Crop : To : To : To : To : To : To : Total :
Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 : Season
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Million Cwt
:
1998 : 20.0 21.8 23.7 25.5 27.5 29.4 31.1 33.3
1999 : 19.7 22.4 24.1 25.9 27.7 29.6 31.3 33.4
2000 : 18.7 21.3 26.3 29.2 33.1 36.0 38.4 41.4
2001 : 14.8 17.2 19.4 21.2
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Fall Potatoes: Production, March 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition,
15 Storage States and 23 Fall Season States, 1998-2001 Crop Years
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: : : : : Farm Disposition
: : : : Total :--------------------------------
State :Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown :
:Year :Production: Mar 1 : For :----------------------:
: : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold
: : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss :
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: : 1,000 Cwt
: :
CA : :
: 1998: 3,708 1,600 157 29 720 2,959
: 1999: 4,005 1,800 183 17 383 3,605
: 2000: 3,741 1,300 58 11 300 3,430
: 2001: 1,113 200
CO : :
: 1998: 25,360 12,000 1,930 1,615 2,615 21,130
: 1999: 25,762 12,900 1,971 1,705 2,967 21,090
: 2000: 27,972 13,000 1,771 1,485 3,847 22,640
: 2001: 21,357 9,400
ID : :
: 1998: 138,000 66,000 8,300 1,280 9,756 126,964
: 1999: 133,330 65,000 8,700 1,150 9,300 122,880
: 2000: 152,320 76,500 8,140 1,190 13,718 137,412
: 2001: 127,980 66,000
ME : :
: 1998: 18,060 8,450 1,430 360 1,740 15,960
: 1999: 17,813 9,400 1,408 330 1,850 15,633
: 2000: 17,920 8,700 1,302 315 1,490 16,115
: 2001: 16,120 7,000
MI : :
: 1998: 14,648 4,100 888 200 1,348 13,100
: 1999: 14,963 4,200 1,005 213 1,300 13,450
: 2000: 14,963 3,400 1,135 250 1,700 13,013
: 2001: 14,030 3,200
MN : :
: 1998: 21,170 8,900 1,400 254 1,440 19,476
: 1999: 18,020 6,200 1,254 170 1,980 15,870
: 2000: 21,240 10,100 1,140 130 1,700 19,410
: 2001: 18,425 7,900
MT : :
: 1998: 3,180 2,650 253 145 265 2,770
: 1999: 3,325 2,700 276 151 213 2,961
: 2000: 3,503 2,800 211 133 732 2,638
: 2001: 3,040 2,550
NE 1/ : :
: 1998: 8,175 469 166 881 7,128
: 1999: 8,904 621 240 711 7,953
: 2000: 10,127 542 182 730 9,215
: 2001: 8,512
NY : :
: 1998: 7,290 800 572 110 330 6,850
: 1999: 6,758 1,300 484 95 323 6,340
: 2000: 5,964 1,000 517 108 406 5,450
: 2001: 5,942 650
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--continued
Fall Potatoes: Production, March 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition,
15 Storage States and 23 Fall Season States, 1998-2001 Crop Years (continued)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: : : : : Farm Disposition
: : : : Total :--------------------------------
State :Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown :
:Year :Production: Mar 1 : For :----------------------:
: : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold
: : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss :
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: : 1,000 Cwt
: :
ND : :
: 1998: 28,670 12,800 2,178 395 2,840 25,435
: 1999: 26,400 9,000 2,232 340 4,600 21,460
: 2000: 26,950 11,500 2,035 295 3,235 23,420
: 2001: 26,400 12,300
OH 1/ : :
: 1998: 1,200 100 8 37 1,155
: 1999: 987 88 6 60 921
: 2000: 1,134 102 2 35 1,097
: 2001: 984
OR : :
: 1998: 26,229 13,000 1,334 195 2,206 23,828
: 1999: 28,020 15,500 1,368 239 1,607 26,174
: 2000: 30,683 17,000 957 140 1,915 28,628
: 2001: 20,730 11,500
PA : :
: 1998: 3,360 700 261 50 252 3,058
: 1999: 3,080 700 270 31 172 2,877
: 2000: 3,510 830 252 44 165 3,301
: 2001: 3,173 660
WA : :
: 1998: 93,225 29,500 4,080 300 6,500 86,425
: 1999: 95,200 28,000 4,320 300 6,500 88,400
: 2000: 105,000 37,500 3,960 300 9,500 95,200
: 2001: 94,400 32,500
WI : :
: 1998: 30,895 11,000 1,720 265 2,360 28,270
: 1999: 34,000 10,600 1,720 310 1,420 32,270
: 2000: 33,800 10,500 1,700 264 1,949 31,587
: 2001: 31,955 11,500
Oth Sts : :
: 1998: 2,150
: 1999: 2,320
: 2000: 3,540
: 2001: 2,510
15 Sts : :
: 1998: 423,170 173,650 25,072 5,372 33,290 384,508
: 1999: 420,567 169,620 25,900 5,297 33,386 381,884
: 2000: 458,827 197,670 23,822 4,849 41,422 412,556
: 2001: 394,161 167,870
Fall Sts : :
: 1998: 432,737 25,657 5,584 34,231 392,922
: 1999: 429,847 26,449 5,408 34,229 390,210
: 2000: 467,504 24,249 4,968 42,257 420,279
: 2001: 400,727
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Combined into "Other States".
Fall Potatoes: Farm Marketings, Selected States,
1998-2000 Marketing Years
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
State : Crop :Jul :Aug :Sep :Oct :Nov :Dec :Jan :Feb :Mar :Apr :May :Jun :Jul
: Year : : : : : : : : : : : : :
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: : Percent
: :
CA : :
: 1998 : 13 12 13 11 10 12 10 8 7 4
: 1999 : 5 12 14 10 12 9 10 10 11 7
: 2000 : 9 11 13 10 9 11 7 11 9 10
CO : :
: 1998 : 5 8 9 12 10 10 12 11 10 9 4
: 1999 : 4 7 10 10 10 10 12 11 10 10 6
: 2000 : 5 8 10 10 11 8 11 11 12 9 5
ID : :
: 1998 : 6 11 20 6 6 7 6 8 9 9 6 6
: 1999 : 3 15 18 6 6 5 7 9 10 9 6 6
: 2000 : 5 9 10 9 6 7 6 9 9 13 8 9
ME : :
: 1998 : 1 7 9 9 9 10 11 14 12 9 9
: 1999 : 3 6 7 7 9 10 10 12 16 11 9
: 2000 : 2 8 8 7 9 9 12 12 15 10 5 3
MI : :
: 1998 : 3 8 9 9 9 12 14 9 12 10 5
: 1999 : 3 7 8 9 15 12 9 9 9 11 6 2
: 2000 : 3 7 8 12 12 12 11 12 11 7 4 1
MN : :
: 1998 : 11 16 14 10 5 7 6 8 9 6 8
: 1999 : 8 12 13 11 8 8 7 9 8 6 5 5
: 2000 : 2 8 8 7 6 5 6 7 10 11 12 18
NY : :
: 1998 : 7 16 16 16 15 11 8 6 4 1
: 1999 : 4 21 18 11 9 10 8 9 10
: 2000 : 2 26 18 11 12 8 8 10 5
ND : :
: 1998 : 3 13 14 10 10 8 7 7 9 10 6 3
: 1999 : 2 13 20 7 10 12 7 7 8 7 6 1
: 2000 : 4 21 11 10 5 8 5 9 11 8 8
OR : :
: 1998 : 2 12 15 27 8 5 4 5 6 6 4 4 2
: 1999 : 2 13 10 21 7 6 7 8 7 7 7 3 2
: 2000 : 3 9 12 21 4 5 5 6 7 7 9 6 6
PA : :
: 1998 : 14 12 11 12 15 11 9 7 6 2 1
: 1999 : 14 13 12 12 13 11 9 7 6 2 1
: 2000 : 14 13 12 12 13 11 9 7 6 2 1
WA : :
: 1998 : 16 13 25 7 3 5 6 7 5 6 6 1
: 1999 : 17 14 24 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 1
: 2000 : 16 14 25 7 4 6 5 5 5 5 5 3
WI : :
: 1998 : 1 6 18 13 10 10 10 9 9 8 4 2
: 1999 : 2 7 16 12 11 9 8 10 9 9 5 2
: 2000 : 1 7 15 14 11 8 8 9 10 10 5 2
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Potato Stocks Down 15 Percent
March 1, 2002 potato stocks totaled 168 million cwt, down 15 percent from 2001
and 1 percent below two years ago. Potatoes in storage account for 43 percent
of the fall storage States' production, the same percentage as a year ago.
This is the lowest March potato stocks since the 1995 crop.
Disappearance from the start of harvest to March 1, at 226 million cwt, is
down 13 percent from the 2000 crop and 10 percent below two years ago. This
is the lowest disappearance since 1993. February disappearance of
33.9 million cwt is down 7 percent from a year ago and 10 percent below 2000.
Shrink and loss to this point in the season is 21.2 million cwt, down
27 percent from last year and 18 percent below two years ago.
Processing of 2001 crop potatoes totaled 114 million cwt to March 1, down
13 percent from the 2000 crop and 10 percent below two years ago. In
February, processors used 18.3 million cwt of potatoes, slightly below a year
ago and 8 percent below two years ago.
Western States held 122 million cwt of potatoes in storage on March 1, 2002,
down 18 percent from last year and 3 percent below 2000. Idaho's potato
stocks are down 14 percent from a year ago, while Washington is down
13 percent and Oregon is off 32 percent. Colorado's stocks are down
28 percent and Montana's dipped 9 percent from a year ago. California's
potato holdings are down 85 percent from a year ago.
Central States accounted for 37.4 million cwt of potato stocks this March 1,
down 4 percent from 2001 but 16 percent above 2000. North Dakota's stocks are
up 7 percent and Wisconsin's holdings are up 10 percent from this date last
year. Michigan's potato stocks are 6 percent lower than last year and
Minnesota's are off 22 percent from a year ago. Combined Nebraska and Ohio
stocks are 29 percent below a year ago.
Eastern States stored 8.3 million cwt of potatoes on March 1, 2002, down
21 percent from a year ago and 27 percent below two years ago. Both Maine and
Pennsylvania holdings are down 20 percent from last year. New York's potato
storage is down 35 percent from a year ago.
Reliability of March 1 Stocks Estimates
The "Root Mean Square Error" for the March 1 stocks estimate is 3.6 percent.
This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of
168 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than
3.6 percent or approximately 6.0 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10
(90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 6.3 percent
or approximately 10.6 million cwt.
The 10-year (1992-2001) record of the differences between the March 1 stocks
estimates and the final estimates averaged 4.3 million cwt, ranging from
0.65 million above to 13.1 million cwt below the final. During the 10-year
period, the March 1 estimate has been below the final estimate in 6 of the
10 years.
Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final March 1 Stocks,
United States, 1991-2001
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final
Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt
:
1991 : 146,180 100.2 145,820
1992 : 139,665 91.4 152,795
1993 : 146,080 95.2 153,435
1994 : 163,305 96.3 169,570
1995 : 152,255 97.6 156,020
1996 : 184,565 97.5 189,210
1997 : 170,325 96.8 175,870
1998 : 174,100 100.3 173,650
1999 : 170,050 100.3 169,620
2000 : 198,320 100.3 197,670
2001 : 167,870
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NOTE: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in
storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes not yet moved, and
shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report.
Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged
90.6 percent of the total fall production. Shrinkage, loss and home use
account for the remaining 9.4 percent. Most seed for use the following crop
year is on hand and remains part of stocks until moved or planted.
Potatoes: Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed,
United States, 1996-2001
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Fall Potatoes : Amount Used
:-------------------------------------------------------: for Seed
Crop : : : Sold : : Not Sold : All Seasons
Year : Production : Sold : as % of :Not Sold : as % of : Following
: : : Prod : : Prod : year
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: ---- 1,000 Cwt ---- Percent 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt
:
1996 : 454,388 408,247 89.8 46,141 10.2 29,138
1997 : 423,190 387,089 91.5 36,101 8.5 29,975
1998 : 432,737 392,922 90.8 39,815 9.2 29,217
1999 : 429,847 390,210 90.8 39,637 9.2 29,709
2000 : 467,504 420,279 89.9 47,225 10.1 27,435
2001 : 400,727
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on April 15, 2002.
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