HDR1012000110080512951500POTATO STOCKS
HDR2012000110080512951500PSTK HIGHLIGHTS
Released May 12, 1995, by the Agricultural Statistics Board.
Potato Stocks Up 10 Percent
Potato stocks totaled 81.5 million cwt on May 1, 1995, up 10 percent from last
year and 9 percent above two years ago. May stocks include considerably more
seed than would normally be on hand because of late planting in many States.
Disappearance for the season is a record high 319 million cwt of potatoes,
6 percent above last year and 9 percent above 1993. Shrink and loss of
30.9 million cwt was 8 percent above a year ago. Processors used a record high
152 million cwt of potatoes, up 8 percent for the season. April processing
totaled 18.4 million cwt of potatoes, up 7 percent from a year earlier.
For information call Arvin Budge at (202) 720-4285. Office hours are 8:00 a.m.
to 4:30 p.m. ET.
Pot 1-2 (5-95)
HDR2012000110080512951500FALL POTATOES:PROD & STKS, 15 MAJ STS, '85-94
Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1985-94
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Crop : : : : : : :
Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1
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: 1,000 Cwt
:
1985 : 343,984 235,475 202,800 171,510 138,720 104,540 65,380
1986 : 307,928 209,435 180,915 154,545 128,720 95,090 59,790
1987 : 335,607 225,890 196,760 167,325 138,800 105,905 70,030
1988 : 305,623 206,420 177,750 151,050 124,485 92,585 59,355
1989 : 316,097 202,050 173,550 144,290 116,600 84,320 50,675
1990 : 344,200 225,500 194,460 162,850 134,470 101,150 63,040
1991 : 363,541 242,070 211,005 178,515 145,820 108,865 69,110
1992 : 368,516 246,820 215,990 184,560 152,795 115,785 75,040
1993 : 375,004 249,710 217,800 186,090 154,135 115,970 73,860
1994 : 400,385 263,630 229,350 196,005 163,305 123,285 81,495
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HDR2012000110080512951500POTATOES:QUANT. USED FOR PRCSNG, 8 STS '92-94
Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, Eight States, 1992-94 1/
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State and : : : : : : :
Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Season
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: 1,000 Cwt
ID & OR-Malheur Co :
1992 : 22,180 29,080 35,710 42,800 50,090 57,090 80,570
1993 : 24,090 30,540 37,150 44,720 53,070 61,440 85,780
1994 : 26,620 34,230 42,330 49,890 57,990 66,680
:
ME 2/ :
1992 : 1,195 1,630 2,205 2,720 3,390 4,020 5,055
1993 : 1,350 1,720 2,210 2,505 2,890 3,275 4,555
1994 : 1,510 1,840 2,275 2,535 2,975 3,330
:
WA & OR-Other :
1992 : 26,840 31,550 35,950 41,670 46,530 51,630 63,510
1993 : 28,260 33,350 39,010 45,020 51,290 57,180 70,690
1994 : 28,690 33,500 39,120 46,070 52,900 59,550
:
Oth Sts 3/ :
1992 : 7,140 9,220 11,265 13,305 15,550 17,555 25,070
1993 : 7,605 9,515 11,605 13,720 16,080 18,705 25,690
1994 : 8,790 12,045 14,605 17,095 19,840 22,585
:
Total :
1992 : 57,355 71,480 85,130 100,495 115,560 130,295 174,205
1993 : 61,305 75,125 89,975 105,965 123,330 140,600 186,715
1994 : 65,610 81,615 98,330 115,590 133,705 152,145
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1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in
which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for
potato chips in ME, MI, MN, ND, and WI.
2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 3/ MI, MN, ND, and WI.
HDR2012000110080512951500FALL POTATOES:PROD&STKS ON MAY 1, '94-95
Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks on May 1, 1994-95
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: Crop of 1993 : Crop of 1994
:---------------------------------------------------------------
State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : %
: Prod : May 1, : of : Prod : May 1, : of
: : 1994 : Prod : : 1995 : Prod
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: ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent
:
CA : 4,800 1,200 25 4,400 1,100 25
CO : 25,270 6,100 24 25,795 6,000 23
ID : 126,192 35,000 28 134,340 34,500 26
ME : 19,890 3,500 18 17,250 2,800 16
MI : 11,780 700 6 12,180 1,200 10
MN : 12,650 2,300 18 17,755 4,200 24
MT : 2,700 160 6 3,200 350 11
NE : 3,008 100 3 3,888 300 8
NY :
Long Island : 1,643 1/ 1,617 1/
Upstate : 6,050 1/200 6,188 1/210
ND : 21,090 2,300 11 28,200 4,700 17
OH : 1,140 1/ 1,348 1/
OR : 23,103 5,400 23 25,784 6,800 26
PA : 4,600 100 2 3,780 135 4
WA : 88,500 13,500 15 88,920 17,000 19
WI : 22,588 3,300 15 25,740 2,200 9
:
Total 15 State : 375,004 73,860 20 400,385 81,495 20
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1/ Combined to prevent possible disclosure of individual operations.
HDR2012000110080512951500PSTKS NARRATIVES
Potato Stocks Up 10 Percent
May 1, 1995, stocks totaled 81.5 million cwt, up 10 percent from last year and
9 percent above two years ago. Stocks made up 20 percent of fall potato
production in the 15 storage States, the same as a year ago. Disappearance was
6 percent more than last year. Processor usage was up 8 percent. Shrinkage and
loss was 8 percent above a year ago.
Processing continued to move potatoes at a record high pace, accounting for
152 million cwt of potatoes from the 1994 crop, up 8 percent from the same
period last year and 17 percent above two years ago. March processor usage was
18.4 million cwt, up 7 percent from a year ago and 25 percent above two years
ago.
Disappearance from the start of harvest through April totaled 319 million cwt of
potatoes, up 6 percent from last year and 9 percent above two years ago.
Shrinkage and loss was 30.9 million cwt, 8 percent above the 28.7 million cwt
lost last year but 3 percent below the losses of two years ago.
Eastern States stored 3.14 million cwt of potatoes on May 1, 1995, down
17 percent from last year and 36 percent below two years ago. Maine's stocks
were down 20 percent. Pennsylvania and New York are virtually finished shipping
for the season.
Central States held 12.6 million cwt of potatoes in storage on May 1, 1995.
This is 45 percent above last year and 11 percent higher than two years ago.
Wisconsin's stocks are off 33 percent but each of the other Central States held
more than a year ago. North Dakota's May stocks were more than double last
year, partly because of late planting and slow movement of seed. Minnesota's
stocks were up 83 percent and Michigan's storage was up 71 percent from last
year. Nebraska's season is nearly finished.
Western States potato stocks totaled 65.8 million cwt in six States, up
7 percent from last year and 12 percent above two years ago. Idaho's stocks of
34.5 million cwt, were down 1 percent from a year ago, and made up 52 percent of
the Western total. Colorado was off 2 percent from last year. Washington's
stocks of 17.0 million cwt and Oregon's stocks of 6.8 million cwt, were each up
26 percent. Montana's stocks at the end of their seed season were more than
twice the May 1 level a year ago. California's stocks were off 8 percent.
Changes in Summer and Fall Potato Estimates
Acreage, yield, and production estimates of "summer" and "fall" potatoes will be
combined into the "fall" season for Michigan and Minnesota beginning in 1995.
Eliminating "summer" potatoes in these two States will shift about 20,000 acres
from the "summer" season to the "fall" season estimates. The first estimates
of summer acreage, published in the "Acreage" report issued June 30, will
exclude these two States. Stocks reports, starting in December 1995, will
include potatoes from these former "summer" areas. Additionally, potato
estimates for Long Island and Upstate New York will be combined in an "All" New
York estimate. The first estimate of fall potato acreage is included in the
July "Crop Production" report. These changes will provide estimates that more
accurately reflect current marketing and production patterns.
HDR2012000110080512951500RELIABILITY OF MAY 1 STKS ESTI. NARRATIVE
Reliability of May 1 Stocks Estimates
The "Root Mean Square Error" for the May 1 stocks estimate is 8.4 percent. This
means that the chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 81.5 million
cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 8.4 percent or
approximately 6.8 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence
level) that the difference will not exceed 14.5 percent or approximately
11.8 million cwt.
The 10-year 1985-94 record of the differences between the May 1 stocks estimate
and the final estimates average 4.0 million cwt, ranging from 0.6 million cwt to
11.5 million cwt. During this 10-year period, the May 1 estimate has been below
the final estimate 8 out of 10 years.
HDR2012000110080512951500PREL. & FNL MAY STKS, US, '84-94
Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final May Stocks,
United States, 1984-94
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Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final
Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks 1/
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: 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt
:
1984 : 51,575 98.3 52,465
1985 : 63,380 96.9 65,380
1986 : 57,040 95.4 59,790
1987 : 71,640 102.3 70,030
1988 : 54,390 91.6 59,355
1989 : 50,125 98.9 50,675
1990 : 54,400 86.3 63,040
1991 : 70,020 101.3 69,110
1992 : 63,550 84.7 75,040
1993 : 68,060 92.1 73,860
1994 : 81,495
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1/ As reported in the September "Potatoes" annual report.
Note: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining
in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes not yet
moved and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the
date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for
the past 5 years averaged 90.5 percent of the total fall production
Shrinkage, loss and home use account for the remaining 9.5 percent.
Most seed for use the following year is on hand but remains as
part of stocks until planted.
HDR2012000110080512951500NXT RLSE DATE & EEO STMNT
The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on
December 15, 1995.
***********************
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