CATTLE AND SHEEP OUTLOOK August 14, 1995 (Revised August 15, 1995) Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- CATTLE AND SHEEP OUTLOOK, a supplement to the Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Monthly report, is published five times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. LDP-CS-7. Subcriptions to the printed version of this report are available from the ERS- NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock #LDP-CS, $22/year. A consolidated subscription to all of the livestock, dairy, and poultry reports (34 issues/year) is also available as stock #LDP-A, $66/year. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: This revision corrects the bull slaughter data in the Commercial Cattle Slaughter table. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- The U.S. economy has slowed markedly from 1994's GDP growth of 4.1 percent. However, there are few signs of a pending recession and continued low inflation is welcome news to the meat complex, which faces record red meat and poultry supplies in 1995 and again in 1996. Wet, cool weather earlier in the 1995 growing season likely increased the number of abandoned acres and reduced grain yields, but also provided cattlemen with very favorable grazing conditions this summer and large supplies of harvested forage. Pasture and range conditions remained very favorable in most areas in early August, with 30 percent of the grazing acreage rated fair, 48 percent good, and 10 percent excellent. Conditions in most primary cow- calf States were rated fair or better on over 85 percent of the acreage, including Texas at 91 percent, Missouri at 95, Oklahoma at 97, Nebraska at 84, South Dakota at 96, and Kansas at 98 percent. Only 13 percent of the pasture acreage was rated poor to very poor. Most of that acreage was relegated to extreme west Texas and southeast New Mexico, northeastern Alabama, and western Washington. Moisture and cooler weather in late July-early August should provide a base for very favorable pasture and range conditions this fall. In addition, tropical storm moisture in the High Plains winter wheat growing areas and a zero Acreage Reduction Program (ARP) requirement are expected to result in excellent early fall grazing prospects on increased acreage. Recent rains in the Southeast will help establish small grain pastures for winter grazing, as well as revive parched acreage. Total hay production in 1995 is forecast at 157 million tons, 5 percent above last year and if realized, record large. Alfalfa hay production is expected to rise 6 percent, while production of other hay may rise 4 percent. Acreage and yields are up in most areas, with decreases confined primarily to the Northeast and Southeast. Larger hay stocks will be available going into the overwintering period, and together with favorable forage conditions, should provide an adequate base for the expanded cattle inventory. The farm price of hay averaged $80.60 a ton in July, down $2 to $3 from both June and a year earlier. The price of other hay was down marginally for both periods, while alfalfa hay was down $2 to $4 a ton. Recent improvement in weather conditions in most areas should put further pressure on hay prices. Projected U.S. 1995/96 feed grain supplies, use, and ending stocks were revised up in August from the July projection. Although this year's feed grain harvest is forecast to be 19 percent below last year's record, it is expected to rise 24 percent above the last short crop in 1993/94. Corn production is forecast at 8.122 billion bushels, down from last year's 10.1-billion record, but well above the 6.3 billion harvested 2 years ago. Feed use and export estimates have been raised, thus 1995/96 ending stocks, although marginally higher than the July estimate, remain low. Consequently, good planting progress next spring will be critical to keeping the livestock sector healthy. The farm price of corn averaged $2.67 a bushel in July, up from $2.51 in June and $2.19 a year earlier. Prices so far this summer have been volatile due to uncertainties over this year's harvest. The 1995/96 average corn price estimate has been lowered to $2.45 to $2.85 a bushel, compared with $2.25 last year, and $2.50 in 1993/94. Soybean meal production is forecast to be about unchanged from 1994/95, but up nearly 8 percent from 1993/94. In the latest Crop Production, soybean meal production and prices were unchanged from a month earlier. The price of 48 percent soybean meal at Decatur is expected to average $165 to $190 a ton, compared with $160 in 1994/95, and $192.86 in 1993/94. Cattle Expansion Slowing The mid-year Cattle report suggests the pace of beef cow expansion is slowing, yet slaughter data provide no hint of beef cow liquidation. Consequently, beef supplies will continue to expand for at least the next couple of years, while larger calf crops and record supplies of competing meats will pressure cattle prices downward. Cattle producers apparently have revisited inventory expansion plans since they responded to the January 1 cattle survey. Rising grain prices and larger beef supplies since early spring have forced feeder cattle prices lower. As a result, cow-calf returns likely will turn negative for higher-cost producers this year and for most cattlemen in 1996. The number of replacement beef heifers being retained for possible herd expansion was down 3 percent from a year earlier on July 1. At the beginning of the year, producers indicated they were retaining 6 percent more beef replacement heifers. Heifers entering beef cow herds in first-half 1995 declined 10 percent from the 1993 peak, but still remain large. And while the decline in beef heifer replacements is welcome news, it has sharply increased the supply of heifers available to go on feed and in feedlots. This year's calf crop was estimated at 41.5 million head, up 2 percent from a year earlier, but down slightly as a proportion of the January 1 cow inventory. This year's calf crop ratio will decline to 91.0 percent, versus 92.2 percent in 1994. Feeder Cattle Supplies Remain Large Feeder cattle supplies outside feedlots on July 1 increased 1.1 million head from a year earlier to 44.4 million head, the largest for this date since 1986. U.S. cattle on feed on July 1 also rose nearly 5 percent from a year earlier to 11 million head. Heifers on feed were up over 9 percent, or 288,000 head. High grain prices and favorable forage conditions in most areas likely will temporarily postpone placements in feedlots, but a sizeable number of heifers and calves imported from Mexico earlier this year remain available to go on feed later this summer and fall. Calf supply increases also have been slowed to some extent by a fairly sharp increase in calf slaughter. First-half calf slaughter rose 14 percent from a year earlier, with the proportion of Holstein male calves in the mix likely up. Fed Beef Supplies To Remain Large Second-quarter fed cattle marketings in the 13 quarterly reporting States rose 3 percent from last year's large number, and were the largest for the quarter since 1982 when the 13-state survey began. Hot weather in July slowed the near record marketing pace exhibited in May and June, but the pace will pick up in August. Net feedlot placements in the 13 quarterly reporting States rose nearly 15 percent during April-June and will remain large this summer in spite of higher cattle feeding costs due to rising grain prices. Prices for 750- to 800-pound feeder cattle dropped sharply this spring, and currently are trading $10 to $12 per cwt below a year earlier. This decline about offset the impact of higher grain costs, and feedlot profitability has improved. Third-quarter placements likely will rise about 1 percent from a year earlier, with fourth-quarter placements rising nearly 5 percent as more heavy yearlings are placed on feed following extended pasture programs. Placements in the first two quarters of 1996, although seasonally light, are expected to rise nearly 2 and 5 percent, respectively. Second-half placements will be slowed by smaller gains in this year's calf crop and fewer imports from Mexico. Expanded feedlot inventories on July 1 will raise fed marketings about 3 percent this summer and fall, with the largest marketings occurring in August through September. Marketings are forecast to rise 5 to 6 percent from a year earlier in first-quarter 1996, and 3 to 4 percent in the remaining quarters. Extending the period on grass prior to feedlot placement has increased placement weights and consequently marketing weights. However, these large rapidly growing cattle have shown little propensity to finish at Choice grade and are increasingly competing with lower valued imported beef in the processing market. This trend likely will continue as long as excess forage is available. Beef Supplies Keep Pressure on Prices Beef cow slaughter shows little hint of increased culling and/or liquidation despite the decline in beef replacement heifers on July 1. Cow slaughter increased nearly 4 percent in the first half of 1995 from a year earlier, but as a proportion of the January 1 cow inventory, is little changed from 1994 after accounting for increased slaughter cow imports from Canada, and to a lesser extent Mexico. A similar situation is expected in second half 1995. Cow slaughter is expected to rise another 5 to 6 percent in 1996, and with declining replacement heifer numbers, likely will begin to level off cow inventories. Forage conditions and 1996 crop development will be key to slaughter above these levels, as beef supplies will remain large with prices continuing under pressure. Imports of slaughter cows from Mexico are expected to decline in late 1995 and in 1996 if moisture conditions improve. Cow imports from Canada for immediate slaughter also are expected to decline as renovated slaughter facilities owned by U.S. firms resume normal steer and heifer slaughter operations and expand to double shifts. Older, less efficient plants in Canada, as in the U.S., will increasingly be forced to compete against each other for cull cows. Fed cattle prices dropped to the low $60's per cwt in May and June as larger feedlot marketings pushed weekly slaughter to 700,000 to 735,000 per week. Seasonally lower slaughter this fall is expected to support prices in the mid- to upper-$60's, but prices for the year still are expected to average about $3 per cwt below 1994, at $66. Larger production in 1996 is forecast to push average prices $1 lower. Favorable forage supplies this fall in most areas will allow feeder cattle producers and stocker cattle operators to retain lighter weight cattle for additional weight gain on pasture. But high grain prices and tight stocks will hold feeder cattle prices well below a year earlier at least until 1996 feed grain plantings and the winter wheat harvest begin to raise prospects for replenished grain stocks. Prices for 750- to 800-pound feeder cattle broke about $7 per cwt between the first and second quarter and are likely to remain in the mid-$60's for much of next year. Utility cow prices will remain under pressure next year despite lower expected imports, averaging in the mid- to lower-$30's per cwt. Poor grazing conditions or lower calf prices could force increased herd culling and even lower prices. Retail Beef Prices Continue Modest Decline Per capita beef consumption only will rise about half a pound this year as declining imports and larger exports nearly offset 3 percent more beef production. Per capita consumption may rise nearly a pound in 1996, but this is only a return to 1989 levels and still down one-third from the 1976 record. Increasing beef supplies should cause wholesale and retail prices for Choice beef to decline through fall and well into next year. Modest fed cattle price increases later this year and in early 1996 likely will be absorbed by continued wide farm-retail spreads. Tight Choice beef supplies in first-half 1995 and strong domestic and export demand kept Choice beef prices relatively static while lower quality beef remained under pressure. Market strength continues for higher quality beef, including fatter beef trimmings. Fifty-fifty lean trim prices in early August averaged over $50 per cwt, up from $30 to $35 a year earlier. In contrast, 90 percent lean beef trimmings averaged about $85 a cwt, and well below the $105 to $115 per cwt range of a year earlier. Choice retail beef prices remained nearly unchanged at $2.83 per pound during the first half of 1995 while the all fresh retail beef price declined over 10 cents a pound through June. The all fresh retail beef price includes a higher proportion of lower quality beef cuts, and a larger proportion of lean to regular grades of hamburger. Differences between the Choice and all fresh retail beef price continued to widen in July. The all fresh beef price was unchanged from last month while the Choice beef price rose 4 cents per pound. The all fresh retail beef price is expected to continue under pressure through at least next summer, although record farm to retail spreads may take some of the pressure off cattle prices. Beef Imports Down U.S. beef and veal imports through May remained exceptionally weak, declining nearly 13 percent from a year earlier. Lower imports from Australia and Brazil more than offset slightly higher quantities from New Zealand. Imports for the year are forecast to fall 10 percent from 1994 to 2.12 billion pounds, and likely will be unchanged in 1996 as further declines from Australia are offset by larger shipments from Canada and Brazil. Australian beef imports are down 19 percent through May due to domestic labor disruptions and low U.S. manufacturing beef prices. The long- running drought in Australia, which began in 1992, is nearly over and producers are expected to begin rebuilding herds. Herd expansion could last through 1996, which would limit 1996 beef exports. Given these circumstances, U.S. imports from Australia will remain low through the remainder of 1995 and could decline further in 1996. U.S. imports from Canada have declined about 12 percent through May. Smaller Canadian imports from Australia and New Zealand have increased the demand for domestically produced beef, which had been shipped to U.S. processors in previous years. Canada has been shipping more slaughter cattle to the United States, which could be offsetting meat exports. This trend is not expected to continue, however. Two U.S.-owned packing plants in Alberta are expanding capacity, which should reduce future Canadian fed cattle shipments to U.S. plants, and may pull some cattle from U.S. feedlots. Canadian cattle inventories on January 1 included 3 percent more steers and calves and 4-5 percent more beef cows and replacement heifers than a year earlier. Thus, U.S. beef imports from Canada are forecast to increase next year. Beef imports from Brazil have declined dramatically this year despite slightly higher Brazilian production. Increased domestic demand, as the economy has stabilized, and an overvalued Brazilian currency have reduced Brazil's exports to all major markets. As long as Brazil's economic stability continues, imports from Brazil likely will remain at relatively low levels. However, expectations of further production increases in 1996 could boost exportable surpluses and U.S. imports. Pacific Rim and Canada Boost Exports U.S. beef exports to most major markets expanded through May, and likely will continue to grow through the remainder of the year. Shipments to Mexico remain weak, but exports to all destinations should reach 1.7 billion pounds for the year. Exports in 1996 could increase an additional 3 percent based on continued growth in the Pacific Rim. Although it is likely that Japan's beef imports will trigger higher tariffs under snapback provisions, the impact will be limited and U.S. exports should continue at their present rate of growth. Under the terms of the Uruguay Round (UR) Agreement, the snapback is triggered if cumulative beef imports during any of the first three quarters of a Japan fiscal year (April-March) reach 117 percent of imports during the same period a year earlier. Japan may then apply an increased tariff not to exceed the base tariff used in the UR negotiations for the remainder of the Japan fiscal year. The impact of the snapback provision this year would raise the tariff on imported beef from 48.1 percent to 50 percent. Of greater uncertainty is the lingering recession in Japan and the possibility of a weakening yen due to recent government policy changes to boost economic growth. U.S. beef exports have benefitted from the high value of the yen, which makes U.S. beef prices more attractive in absolute terms and relative to the Australian dollar. If the yen should weaken, U.S. exporters could face greater competition and slower export growth. South Korea is becoming a major destination for U.S. beef. U.S. exports grew 22 percent through May, compared to a year ago. The Korean won has strengthened vis-a-vis the dollar, and with additional access under the UR agreement, prospects for continued growth look very favorable this year. With the UR and the recently agreed-upon changes in shelf-life regulations, steady growth in exports also will occur in 1996. Exports to Mexico remain weak despite the pesos stability in recent months. Although demand for high quality beef cuts for the hotel and restaurant trade remains relatively strong, continued weakness for less expensive consumer oriented table cuts will keep imports low through the end of the year and into 1996. The Mexican Government recently announced that it has found evidence of "price-discrimination" in its anti-dumping investigation of U.S. beef, but that due to the economic situation, no duties will be imposed while the investigation continues. The government also announced that a public comment period on the ruling would extend to early September. Therefore, no action is expected before mid-September. Sheep Inventory Declines Moderate Cumulative sheep and lamb slaughter through July fell 6 percent below a year earlier. Smaller production, particularly during the spring quarter, held prices in the mid- to upper $70's per cwt and nearly $15 above last spring quarter, presumably due to continued strong hotel-restaurant demand. Production is expected to be about unchanged from 1994's low levels during the summer quarter, and then decline 6-7 percent this fall from a year earlier. Price strength is expected to continue as supplies remain relatively tight but increase seasonally. Most of the decline in slaughter is young lambs coming off pasture or from feedlots. Stock sheep slaughter through the end of July is down only 1 percent from 1994, and may only decline 3 percent for the year. Ewe slaughter during 1994 removed over 5 percent of the January 1 inventory. This is a relatively high proportion, indicative of periods when breeding flocks are showing year-over-year reductions. When last year's ewe slaughter is combined with stock sheep exports to Mexico, total removals jump to 18 percent, well above any year in recent decades. For 1995, ewe slaughter is expected to again exceed 5 percent. But sharp cutbacks in exports will pull the number of ewes slaughtered plus exports down to around 13 percent of the beginning inventory, the lowest since 1990. Stock sheep shipments to Mexico through May were down 57 percent from a year earlier, most likely because of the Mexican peso devaluation last winter. Even with the sharp decline in exports, cull ewe prices have continued to range in the mid- to upper $30's per cwt, a fairly attractive price for producers exiting the business or reducing their flocks. Thus, flock liquidation is continuing, but possibly at a more modest rate. The U.S. breeding flock on July 1 increased slightly from January, with the number of breeding age ewes rising over 70,000 head. The USDA's July Sheep report indicated that most of the increase occurred in the Inter-mountain region representing Colorado, Montana, South Dakota, Utah and Wyoming. Another factor that could affect 1996 lamb production is the higher lambing ratio currently projected for 1995. The 1995 lamb crop is projected at 5.7 million head based on a lambing ratio of 107 lambs per 100 ewes. However, even with prospects for more lambs, slaughter supplies still are forecast to be down sharply next year, particularly during the period leading up to Easter and Passover. Wholesale carcass lamb prices have traded at record levels since late spring. Prices jumped $20 per cwt the first week in May, and remained in the higher trading range through midsummer. Seasonally larger production this fall is expected to pressure prices lower by early September, but from a higher base. Slaughter lamb prices this fall still are expected to trade in the low- to mid-$70's per cwt. There has been very little variation in weekly average live animal and wholesale prices since late spring. This may be due to increased forward contracting of supplies and quarterly price contracts by hotels and restaurants. If this trend continues, it may add some sorely needed stability to the industry. Principal Contributors: Ronald Gustafson (Cattle), Shayle Shagam (Trade), Steve Reed (Sheep). All Fresh Retail Beef Price Updated The all fresh beef retail price series was developed in 1987 to better reflect the mix of fresh beef sold at retail. It contains non-Choice grade cuts and a higher share of ground beef (hamburger), including cow beef and imports, than the Choice beef retail price series. The Choice beef series tracks differences in value (price spreads) for equivalent quantities of product at different levels in the marketing chain while the all fresh beef series represents the quantities of products that move through all consumer markets. The all fresh beef price is updated periodically to reflect changes in the slaughter mix, grading data, and retail merchandising. The latest adjustments have been made to reflect: 1) the higher percentage of beef sold as hamburger (which has the effect of decreasing the all fresh beef price), and 2) the decrease in the average percentage of fat in ground beef. A preliminary all fresh retail beef price will be released each month followed by a final estimate the following month. In addition, net imports (94 percent of imports minus 10 percent of exports) will be calculated using a moving average of the previous three months rather than the previous years number to more accurately reflect import movement. The net result of these changes is to lower the all fresh retail beef price an average of about 1 cent per month from January 1992 through June of 1995. 13-State cattle on feed, placements, marketings, and disappeara --------------------------------------------------------------- Year On Place- Fed mar- Other disapp- feed ments ketings erance --------------------------------------------------------------- 1992 I 10,135 5,423 5,411 404 II 9,743 5,253 5,665 444 III 8,887 6,117 5,751 263 IV 8,990 7,458 5,154 320 Year --- 24,251 21,981 1,431 1993 I 10,974 5,351 5,354 439 II 10,532 5,334 5,858 465 III 9,543 6,341 5,918 275 IV 9,691 7,076 5,246 325 Year --- 24,102 22,376 1,504 1994 I 11,196 5,372 5,559 275 II 10,734 4,675 5,951 334 III 9,124 6,315 5,996 191 IV 9,252 7,087 5,473 260 Year --- 23,449 22,979 1,060 1995 I 10,606 5,914 5,545 287 II 10,688 5,249 6,107 272 III 9,558 --------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Beginning of quarter. 7-State cattle on feed, net placements, marketings, and other disappearance 1/ --------------------------------------------------------------- Year On Place- Fed mar- Other disapp- feed ments ketings erance --------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 head 1992 Jan. 8,397 1,565 1,640 99 Feb. 8,223 1,502 1,410 120 Mar. 8,195 1,516 1,536 117 1st Qtr 4,583 4,586 336 Apr. 8,058 1,425 1,490 125 May 7,868 1,724 1,594 122 June 7,876 1,319 1,702 116 2nd Qtr 4,468 4,786 363 July 7,377 1,432 1,674 85 Aug. 7,050 1,641 1,592 81 Sept. 7,018 2,189 1,581 61 3rd Qtr 5,262 4,847 227 Oct. 7,565 2,688 1,473 76 Nov. 8,704 1,813 1,442 91 Dec. 8,984 1,694 1,414 101 4th Qtr 6,195 4,329 268 Annual 20,508 18,548 1,194 1993 Jan. 9,163 1,641 1,534 130 Feb. 9,140 1,262 1,441 110 Mar. 8,851 1,626 1,585 111 1st Qtr 4,529 4,560 351 Apr. 8,781 1,326 1,572 126 May 8,409 1,801 1,681 136 June 8,393 1,430 1,743 107 2nd Qtr 4,557 4,996 369 July 7,973 1,513 1,702 81 Aug. 7,703 1,865 1,692 82 Sept. 7,794 2,148 1,652 66 3rd Qtr 5,526 5,046 229 Oct. 8,224 2,494 1,546 76 Nov. 9,096 1,878 1,469 108 Dec. 9,397 1,490 1,431 86 4th Qtr 5,862 4,446 270 Annual 20,474 19,048 1,219 1994 Jan. 9,370 1,543 1,610 71 Feb. 9,232 1,356 1,501 76 Mar. 9,011 1,640 1,588 86 1st Qtr 4,539 4,699 233 Apr. 8,977 1,416 1,610 82 May 8,701 1,415 1,699 92 June 8,325 1,205 1,770 106 2nd Qtr 4,036 5,079 280 July 7,654 1,594 1,730 55 Aug. 7,463 1,846 1,767 56 Sept. 7,486 2,060 1,656 50 3rd Qtr 5,500 5,153 161 Oct. 7,840 2,478 1,633 56 Nov. 8,629 1,854 1,498 71 Dec. 8,914 1,590 1,540 94 4th Qtr 5,922 4,671 221 1995 Jan. 8,870 1,720 1,636 88 Feb. 8,866 1,607 1,481 66 Mar. 8,926 1,776 1,629 81 1st Qtr 5,103 4,746 235 Apr. 8,992 1,435 1,557 80 Mar. 8,630 1,413 1,868 62 2nd Qtr 4,586 5,252 213 July 8,113 Aug. Sept. 3rd Qtr --------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Beginning of quarter. High Plains cattle feeding simulator ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Purchased During Feb-95 Mar-95 Apr-95 May-95 Jun-95 Jul-95 Aug-95 Marketed During Jun-95 Jul-95 Aug-95 Sep-95 Oct-95 Nov-95 Dec-95 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Expenses: ($/head) 750 lb. feeder steer 554.48 526.80 501.08 496.73 513.45 507.00 513.00 Total feed, handling and management char 151.79 155.92 157.59 163.49 171.95 161.44 159.40 Interest on feeder and 1/2 feed 31.53 29.96 28.50 28.25 28.24 27.89 28.22 Death loss (1% of purchase) 5.54 5.27 5.01 4.97 5.13 5.07 5.13 Marketing 1/ f.o.b. f.o.b. f.o.b. f.o.b. f.o.b. f.o.b. f.o.b. Total 743.34 717.94 692.18 693.43 718.77 701.39 705.74 Selling price required to cover: $/cwt. Feed and feeder cost 47.02 44.40 42.23 41.87 43.44 43.10 44.05 All costs 63.04 60.51 58.34 58.45 60.80 59.63 60.59 Selling price 2/ 63.08 61.81 63.25 Net margin 0.04 1.30 4.91 Cost per 100 lb. gain: Variable cost less interest $/cwt 36.66 36.93 37.26 38.60 40.98 39.06 39.67 Feed costs $/cwt 35.37 35.72 36.11 37.46 39.79 37.87 38.44 Total costs $/cwt 44.00 43.79 43.79 45.07 47.52 45.60 46.48 Prices: ($/cwt) Choice feeder steer 750-800 lb. Ok City 72.53 68.84 65.41 64.83 67.06 66.20 67.00 Feed, Prices, High P Milo $/cwt 4.05 4.20 4.70 4.93 5.26 4.87 4.80 Corn $/cwt 4.54 4.68 4.75 5.00 5.35 5.46 4.40 Wheat $/cwt 5.86 5.69 5.67 5.94 6.65 7.51 7.60 Cottonseed Meal (41%) $/cwt. 5.85 6.35 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.88 5.90 Alfalfa hay $/ton 122.00 116.00 122.00 120.00 114.00 116.00 116.00 Interest, annual rate 3/ 11.37 11.37 11.37 11.37 11.00 11.00 11.00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Most cattle sold f.o.b. at the feedlot with 4-percent shrink. 2/ Choice slaughter steers, 1100-1300 lb, Texas-Oklahoma direct. 3/ Prime rate plus 2 points. Feeder cattle supply outside feedlots ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Change from Item 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1995/94 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 head Percent On farms Jan 1: Calves < 500 lbs 18,107 18,336 18,117 17,884 18,267 2 Steers over 500 lbs 15,967 16,424 16,940 17,042 17,132 1 Heifers over 500 lbs 8,102 8,048 8,550 9,068 9,294 2 Total 42,176 42,808 43,607 43,994 44,693 2 On feed Jan 1 1/: 12,635 11,869 12,698 12,932 12,383 -4 Feeder cattle outside feedlots on Jan 1: 29,541 30,939 30,909 31,062 32,310 4 Slaughter Jan-Mar: Calves 398 367 321 312 350 12 Steers & heifers 6,228 6,402 6,221 6,495 6,661 3 Total 6,626 6,769 6,542 6,807 7,011 3 On feed Apr 1 1/: 12,640 11,415 12,206 12,441 12,486 0 Feeder cattle outside feedlots on April 1: 22,910 24,624 24,858 24,746 2 On farms July 1: Calves < 500 lbs 29,600 29,900 30,300 31,500 32,500 3 Steers over 500 lbs 14,600 14,800 14,900 15,300 15,300 Heifers over 500 lbs 7,200 7,000 7,300 7,200 7,800 8 Total 51,400 51,700 52,500 54,000 55,600 3 On feed July 1 1/: 11,144 10,389 11,039 10,578 11,159 5 Feeder cattle outside feedlots on July 1: 40,256 41,311 41,461 43,422 44,441 2 Slaughter Jul-Sep: Calves 341 329 289 312 8 Steers & heifers 7,052 6,930 7,017 7,269 4 Total 7,393 7,259 7,306 7,581 4 On feed Oct 1 1/: 10,097 10,500 11,239 10,729 -5 Feeder cattle outside feedlots on Oct 1: 33,910 33,941 33,955 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimated U.S. steers and heifers. 2/ Not including heifers for cow replacement. Commercial calf slaughter and production --------------------------------------------------- Year Dressed Slaughter weight Production 1,000 Million head Pounds pounds 1992 I 367 218 80 II 325 231 75 III 329 216 71 IV 351 208 73 Year 1,372 218 299 1993 I 322 214 69 II 277 227 63 III 288 229 66 IV 308 224 69 Year 1,195 223 267 1994 I 312 228 71 II 288 236 68 III 312 218 68 IV 357 213 76 Year 1,269 223 283 1995 I 351 222 78 II 333 222 74 III /* 74 IV /* 78 Year /* 304 --------------------------------------------------- Calf slaughter by class under Federal inspection --------------------------------------------------------------------- Bob veal Fed Other Year 150 lb & 150 to 400 lb over Total below Formula Nonformula 400 lb --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 head 1988 1,066 1,003 156 185 2,410 1989 898 934 112 193 2,137 1990 657 851 99 135 1,743 1991 466 790 66 86 1,408 1992 423 760 62 82 1,328 1993 324 725 45 66 1,159 1994 416 730 37 54 1,237 I 97 184 11 13 305 II 71 186 8 15 280 III 110 176 9 11 305 IV 138 185 9 15 348 1995 Jan. 49 66 3 4 121 Feb. 37 59 2 5 104 Mar. 43 68 3 4 118 Apr. 34 56 3 3 96 May 44 63 2 4 114 Jun. Jul. Aug. Commercial cattle slaughter ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Steers & Total Total Average Year Steers Heifers heifers cows Bulls Cattle weight ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1993 I 4,031 2,190 6,221 1,542 147 7,910 677 II 4,524 2,355 6,879 1,423 166 8,469 672 III 4,537 2,480 7,017 1,479 180 8,676 700 IV 4,130 2,333 6,463 1,642 166 8,270 704 Year 17,222 9,358 26,580 6,086 659 33,324 688 1994 I 4,138 2,357 6,495 1,517 150 8,162 704 II 4,728 2,356 7,084 1,335 164 8,583 704 III 4,835 2,434 7,269 1,384 172 8,825 723 IV 4,326 2,442 6,768 1,705 155 8,627 709 Year 18,027 9,589 27,616 5,941 641 34,196 710 1995 I 4,218 2,443 6,661 1,576 163 8,400 700 II 2/ 4,883 2,575 7,458 1,387 171 9,016 700 III 2/ 7,400 1,500 9,075 722 IV 2/ 6,835 1,800 8,800 707 Year 2/ 28,354 6,263 35,290 707 1996 I /2 6,866 1,650 8,694 705 II /2 7,490 1,475 9,140 Year 2/ 28,966 6,625 36,292 710 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Classes estimated. 2/ Forecast Cattle prices ------------------------------------------ Ok City Nebraska Fdr Sioux Falls Year Steer Steer Utility Cow ------------------------------------------ Dollars per cwt 1993 I 80.65 85.76 47.75 II 79.78 86.80 49.20 III 73.77 87.99 49.29 IV 71.23 85.27 43.83 Year 76.36 86.45 47.52 1994 I 73.11 82.14 44.44 II 68.79 77.63 46.16 III 65.83 76.37 42.77 IV 67.63 74.74 36.68 Year 68.84 77.72 42.51 1995 I 71.51 72.62 39.58 II 2/ 64.70 65.77 37.18 III 2/ 62-64 64-66 33-35 IV 2/ 64-68 63-67 31-33 Year 2/ 66-67 66-68 35-36 1996 I /2 64-70 64-70 34-38 II /2 63-69 62-68 35-39 Year 2/ 62-68 62-69 34-37 1/ Classes estimated. 2/ Forecast Total heifers entering cow herd January-June ------------------------------------------------------------------ Jan 1 Intended Total 2/ July 1 Heifers Percent cow herd re- disap- cow in- entering enter- Year inven- placements pearance ventory the herd ing tory Jan 1 Jan-Jun Jan-Jun ------------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------- 1,000 he--------------------Percent 1980 47,866 10,101 3,303 49,941 5,378 53 1981 49,622 10,479 3,600 51,004 4,982 48 1982 50,216 11,154 3,926 49,990 3,700 33 1983 48,986 10,881 3,886 49,600 4,500 41 1984 48,543 10,714 4,564 48,500 4,521 42 1985 46,182 10,318 3,971 46,300 4,089 40 1986 44,869 9,874 4,340 45,000 4,471 45 1987 44,412 9,519 3,699 44,400 3,687 39 1988 43,494 9,371 3,468 43,900 3,874 41 1989 42,625 9,442 3,517 43,000 3,892 41 1990 42,469 9,454 3,347 42,900 3,778 40 1991 42,485 9,536 3,229 43,200 3,944 41 1992 42,735 9,774 3,271 43,600 4,136 42 1993 43,023 10,268 3,395 44,600 4,972 48 1994 44,178 10,509 3,294 45,600 4,716 45 1995 45,583 10,601 3,419 46,700 4,536 ------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Death loss calculated as 1 percent of January 1 cow inventory plus estimat 2/ Death loss calculated as 1/2 percent of January 1 cow inventory plus estim Total heifers entering cow herd July-December ------------------------------------------------------------------ Jan 1 July 1 Intended Total 2/ entering Heifers Percent cow in- herd re- disap- cow in- entering enter- Year ventory placements pearance ventory the herd ing July 1 Jul-Dec following Jul-Dec year ------------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------- 1000 hea-------------------- Percent 1980 49,941 10,214 3,746 49,622 3,427 34 1981 51,004 10,856 3,788 50,216 3,000 28 1982 49,990 10,900 4,184 48,986 3,180 29 1983 49,600 10,680 4,447 48,543 3,390 32 1984 48,500 10,450 4,786 46,182 2,468 24 1985 46,300 9,900 4,111 44,869 2,680 27 1986 45,000 9,500 4,294 44,412 3,706 39 1987 44,400 9,400 3,577 43,494 2,671 28 1988 43,900 9,200 3,522 42,625 2,247 24 1989 43,000 9,200 3,438 42,469 2,907 32 1990 42,900 9,100 3,210 42,485 2,795 31 1991 43,200 9,300 3,031 42,735 2,566 28 1992 43,600 9,700 3,216 43,023 2,639 27 1993 44,600 9,700 3,336 44,178 2,914 30 1994 45,600 9,900 3,310 45,583 3,293 33 1995 46,700 9,600 ------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Death loss calculated as 1 percent of January 1 cow inventory plus estimat 2/ Death loss calculated as 1/2 percent of January 1 cow inventory plus estim Beef heifers entering cow herd January-June ------------------------------------------------------------------ Jan 1 Intended Total 2/ July 1 Heifers Percent cow herd re- disap- cow in- entering enter- Year inven- placements pearance ventory the herd ing tory Jan 1 Jan-Jun Jan-Jun ------------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------- 1,000 he--------------------Percent 1986 33,753 5,165 2,333 34,150 2,730 53 1987 33,945 5,214 2,124 34,000 2,179 42 1988 33,183 5,249 1,953 33,650 2,420 46 1989 32,488 5,325 1,915 33,000 2,427 46 1990 32,454 5,283 1,851 32,900 2,297 43 1991 32,520 5,443 1,683 33,400 2,563 47 1992 33,007 5,643 1,695 33,900 2,588 46 1993 33,365 6,092 1,767 34,900 3,302 54 1994 34,650 6,365 1,744 36,000 3,094 49 1995 36,051 6,480 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Death loss calculated as 1 percent of January 1 cow inventory plus estimat 2/ Death loss calculated as 1/2 percent of January 1 cow inventory plus estim Beef heifers entering cow herd July-December ------------------------------------------------------------------ July 1 Intended Total 2/ Jan 1 Heifers Percent cow herd re- disap- cow in- entering enter- Year inven- placements pearance ventory the herd ing tory July 1 Jul-Dec next year Jul-Dec ------------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------- 1,000 he-------------------- Percent 1986 34,150 4,800 2,401 33,945 2,196 46 1987 34,000 4,800 2,041 33,183 1,224 25 1988 33,650 4,800 1,918 32,488 756 16 1989 33,000 4,800 1,920 32,454 1,374 29 1990 32,900 5,000 1,815 32,520 1,435 29 1991 33,400 5,200 1,516 33,007 1,123 22 1992 33,900 5,600 1,681 33,365 1,146 20 1993 34,900 5,700 1,759 34,650 1,509 26 1994 36,000 5,900 1,797 36,051 1,848 31 1995 37,200 5,700 180 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Death loss calculated as 1 percent of January 1 cow inventory plus estimat 2/ Death loss calculated as 1/2 percent of January 1 cow inventory plus estim July 1 cattle inventory ------------------------------------------------------------------ Percent 1992 1993 1994 1995 change Class 33,604 33,970 34,335 34,700 1995/94 ------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,000 head Cattle and calves 107,200 109,000 111,800 114,300 2.2% Cows and heifer that have calv 43,600 44,600 45,600 46,700 2.4% Beef cows 33,900 34,900 36,000 37,200 3.3% Milk cows 9,700 9,700 9,600 9,500 -1.0% Heifers 500 lb+ 16,700 17,000 17,100 17,400 1.8% For beef cow replacement 5,600 5,700 5,900 5,700 -3.4% For milk cow replacement 4,100 4,000 4,000 3,900 -2.5% Other heifers 7,000 7,300 7,200 7,800 8.3% Steers 500 lb+ 14,800 14,900 15,300 15,300 Bulls 500 lb+ 2,200 2,200 2,300 2,400 4.3% Calves under 50 29,900 30,300 31,500 32,500 3.2% Calf crop: Jan-Ju 28,500 28,800 29,800 30,400 2.0% 10,433 10,648 10,929 11,100 1.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Indicates estimated July-December calf cro Selected price statistics for meat animals and meat ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item Feb-95 Mar-95 Apr-95 May-95 Jun-95 Jul-95 /* ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Slaughter Steers: Choice, 1100-1300 lb Nebraska direct 72.55 70.00 66.63 63.72 63.74 62.54 Colorado 73.02 70.66 67.52 64.68 63.73 62.04 Texas 73.79 70.64 67.54 64.27 63.08 61.81 California 72.57 69.63 66.06 61.44 62.92 61.19 Slaughter heifers: Nebraska Choice, 1000-1200 lb 72.55 70.23 66.63 63.66 63.74 62.30 Cows: Sioux Falls Commercial 43.63 42.00 41.16 40.69 39.53 37.06 Breaking Utility 42.63 41.35 40.56 40.17 40.03 37.50 Boning Utility 40.63 39.32 38.47 36.94 36.13 34.27 Cutter 37.63 36.14 35.13 33.44 32.68 30.78 Canner 34.63 32.49 31.69 31.61 32.09 29.47 Feeder steers: Okla. City Medium No. 1 500-550 lb 88.28 84.88 83.38 78.28 74.19 71.00 600-650 lb 76.91 76.31 76.69 72.13 68.94 68.78 750-800 lb 72.53 68.84 65.41 64.83 67.06 66.20 Amarillo Medium No. 1, 600-650 lb 76.75 73.00 69.38 67.80 67.38 67.00 Georgia Auctions Medium No. 1-2, 400-500 lb 77.72 74.50 71.91 65.76 63.09 57.88 600-700 lb 69.52 67.86 64.75 61.78 60.79 58.33 Feeder heifers: Medium No. 1, Okla. City 450-500 lb 77.66 77.94 74.25 71.69 67.75 64.88 700-750 lb 69.44 65.44 62.66 61.90 63.75 63.13 Slaughter lambs: Choice, San Angelo 75.08 73.75 68.58 77.20 81.63 83.70 Choice, So. St. Paul 66.64 69.78 69.00 80.58 88.93 86.31 Slaughter ewes, Good: San Angelo 41.75 31.25 35.31 32.65 35.06 34.40 So. St. Paul 29.42 23.56 21.44 21.71 20.33 22.53 Feeder lambs: San Angelo 82.69 80.06 78.81 84.95 82.63 79.80 So. St. Paul 73.66 74.79 71.00 81.66 88.75 78.91 Farm prices: Beef cattle 68.70 66.90 63.80 60.80 60.90 59.70 Calves 86.90 84.40 81.80 77.00 77.10 75.20 Sheep 37.50 31.90 29.40 27.70 29.20 28.50 Lambs 70.40 74.80 74.40 80.40 85.70 85.60 Meat prices: Wholesale, Central U.S. Boxed beef cutout Choice, 1-3 550-700 lb 111.12 107.87 103.03 104.21 107.65 103.03 700-850 lb 110.46 107.35 103.25 104.59 108.16 103.24 Select, 1-3 550-700 lb 109.27 105.98 100.29 95.57 98.84 96.26 700-850 lb 108.25 105.40 99.76 95.04 99.20 95.79 Cutter Cows 76.63 74.94 72.91 70.86 74.05 69.18 Wholesale, East Coast Choice & Prime Veal carcass 200-280 lb 161.12 165.35 164.19 160.35 161.28 164.48 Lamb carcass < 55 lb 150.00 156.25 156.25 167.68 179.50 180.25 55-65 lb 147.25 154.25 154.25 167.68 179.50 180.25 Retail beef prices: Choice 284.30 284.70 283.70 282.20 283.40 287.40 All fresh 261.74 265.29 260.13 261.47 257.60 258.06 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /* Preliminary Selected slaughter statistics for meat animals and meat ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item Feb-95 Mar-95 Apr-95 May-95 Jun-95 Jul-95 /* ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Commercial: 1/ Slaughter Cattle 2,581 2,950 2,650 3,123 3,243 2,929 Steers 1,286 1,498 1,401 1,703 1,779 1,595 Heifers 759 865 765 887 923 857 Beef cows 237 262 224 252 257 216 Dairy cows 247 266 210 222 222 207 Bulls and Stags 52 59 50 59 62 54 Calves 106 121 98 117 118 114 Sheep and Lambs 375 468 440 371 360 296 Lambs 355 443 419 342 334 275 Ewes 20 25 21 29 26 21 Production Beef 1,808 2,060 1,849 2,184 2,279 2,086 Veal 24 27 22 26 26 23 Lamb and mutton 24 30 28 23 22 19 Pork 1,354 1,634 1,405 1,525 1,464 1,303 Federally inspected: Average live wt Cattle 1,188 1,179 1,175 1,173 1,180 1,188 Calves 382 386 392 386 382 369 Sheep and lambs 128 130 125 127 126 125 Average dressed wt Cattle 707 705 704 705 709 716 Steers 766 760 753 753 754 767 Heifers 704 700 699 691 693 699 Cows 539 536 538 541 546 541 Bulls 855 871 862 862 869 873 Calves 226 227 230 228 225 215 Sheep and lambs 64 65 63 64 63 63 Cold storage stocks: Beef 420 408 385 392 359 353 Veal 7 9 9 9 8 8 Lamb and mutton 12 11 13 15 14 12 Trade: Imports (carcass wt) Beef and veal 179,092 187,317 174,578 175,988 NA NA Lamb and mutton 4,185 7,774 6,571 6,293 NA NA Exports (carcass wt) Beef and veal 3/ 125,906 131,377 130,270 159,993 NA NA Lamb and mutton 479 460 451 566 NA NA ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Classes estimated. 2/ Beginning of the month. /* Estimate Meat supply, carcass weight 1/ ---------------------------------------------------------------- Production ----------------------Begin- Year Commer- Total ning Im- Total cial stocks ports supply ---------------------------------------------------------------- Million pounds Beef: 1993 22,942 23,049 360 2,401 25,810 1994 I 5,745 5,783 529 682 6,994 II 6,042 6,058 562 603 7,223 III 6,377 6,393 506 587 7,486 IV 6,114 6,152 543 499 7,194 Year 24,278 24,386 529 2,371 27,286 1995 I 5,877 5,915 548 572 7,035 II 6,312 6,328 515 530 7,373 III 2/ 6,550 6,566 472 515 7,553 IV 2/ 6,225 6,263 450 503 7,216 Year 2/ 24,964 25,072 548 2,120 27,740 1996 I 2/ 6,125 6,163 450 520 7,133 II 2/ 6,425 6,441 500 520 7,461 Year 2/ 25,750 25,858 450 2,080 28,388 Pork: 1993 17,030 17,088 385 740 18,213 1994 I 4,181 4,191 359 205 4,755 II 4,239 4,248 467 206 4,921 III 4,326 4,335 478 168 4,981 IV 4,912 4,922 419 164 5,505 Year 17,658 17,696 359 743 18,798 1995 I 4,488 4,498 438 173 5,109 II 4,394 4,403 495 175 5,073 III 2/ 4,425 4,434 495 175 5,104 IV 2/ 4,725 4,735 420 175 5,330 Year 2/ 18,032 18,070 438 698 19,206 1996 I 2/ 4,475 4,485 405 165 5,055 II 2/ 4,450 4,459 460 175 5,094 Year 2/ 18,400 18,438 405 680 19,523 Veal: 1993 267 285 5 290 1994 I 71 74 4 78 II 68 70 4 74 III 68 70 5 75 IV 76 79 6 85 Year 283 293 4 297 1995 I 78 81 6 87 II 74 76 9 85 III 2/ 76 78 8 86 IV 2/ 82 85 5 90 Year 2/ 310 320 6 326 1996 I 2/ 79 82 5 87 II 2/ 76 78 5 83 Year 2/ 316 326 5 331 Lamb: 1993 329 337 8 53 398 1994 I 86 87 8 13 108 II 79 80 11 14 105 III 66 67 12 11 90 IV 73 74 9 11 94 Year 304 308 8 49 365 1995 I 78 79 11 16 106 II 73 74 13 17 104 III 2/ 65 66 12 13 91 IV 2/ 68 69 9 11 89 Year 2/ 284 288 11 57 356 1996 I 2/ 68 69 11 14 94 II 2/ 65 66 8 14 88 Year 2/ 262 266 11 53 330 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Forecast Meat utilization, carcass and retail weight 1/ ---------------------------------------------------------------- Per capita Total Consumption Year Ex- Ending disap- Carcass Retail ports stocks pearance weight weight ---------------------------------------------------------------- Million pounds Pounds Beef: 1993 1,275 529 24,006 93.0 65.1 1994 I 359 562 6,073 23.4 16.4 II 391 506 6,326 24.3 17.0 III 416 543 6,527 25.0 17.5 IV 445 548 6,201 23.7 16.6 Year 1,611 548 25,127 96.4 67.5 1995 I 368 515 6,152 23.5 16.4 II 435 472 6,466 24.6 17.2 III 2/ 445 450 6,658 25.3 17.7 IV 2/ 452 450 6,314 23.9 16.7 Year 2/ 1,700 450 25,590 97.3 68.0 1996 I 2/ 400 500 6,233 23.5 16.5 II 2/ 435 450 6,576 24.8 17.3 Year 2/ 1,745 475 26,168 98.5 68.9 Pork: 1993 435 359 17,419 67.5 52.4 1994 I 104 467 4,184 16.1 12.5 II 115 478 4,328 16.6 12.9 III 131 419 4,431 17.0 13.2 IV 181 438 4,886 18.7 14.5 Year 531 438 17,829 68.4 53.1 1995 I 187 495 4,427 16.9 13.1 II 165 495 4,413 16.8 13.0 III 2/ 140 420 4,544 17.2 13.4 IV 2/ 150 405 4,775 18.1 14.0 Year 2/ 642 405 18,159 69.0 53.5 1996 I 2/ 150 460 4,445 16.8 13.0 II 2/ 155 480 4,459 16.8 13.0 Year 2/ 610 400 18,513 69.7 54.1 Veal: 1993 4 286 1.1 0.9 1994 I 4 74 0.3 0.2 II 5 69 0.3 0.2 III 6 69 0.3 0.2 IV 6 79 0.3 0.3 Year 6 291 1.2 0.9 1995 I 9 78 0.3 0.2 II 8 77 0.3 0.2 III 2/ 5 81 0.3 0.3 IV 2/ 5 85 0.3 0.3 Year 2/ 5 321 1.2 1.0 1996 I 2/ 5 82 0.3 0.3 II 2/ 5 78 0.3 0.2 Year 2/ 5 326 1.2 1.0 Lamb: 1993 8 8 381 1.5 1.3 1994 I 2 11 95 0.4 0.3 II 3 12 90 0.3 0.3 III 2 9 79 0.3 0.3 IV 2 11 81 0.3 0.3 Year 9 11 345 1.3 1.2 1995 I 2 13 91 0.3 0.3 II 2 12 90 0.3 0.3 III 2/ 2 9 80 0.3 0.3 IV 2/ 2 11 76 0.3 0.3 Year 2/ 8 11 337 1.2 1.2 1996 I 2/ 2 8 84 0.3 0.3 II 2/ 2 10 76 0.3 0.3 Year 2/ 8 11 311 1.2 1.0 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Forecast Beef, Choice Yield Grade 3: Retail, wholesale, and farm values 1/ --------------------------------------------------------------------- All By- fresh Choice Gross product Net retail retail Wholesale farm allow- farm Year price price value value ance value --------------------------------------------------------------------- - Cents/lb - - 1988 224.8 250.3 169.4 169.4 21.1 148.3 1989 246.2 265.7 176.8 177.6 20.0 157.6 1990 262.5 281.0 189.6 188.9 20.5 168.4 1991 271.0 288.3 182.5 178.4 18.2 160.2 1992 266.4 284.6 179.6 180.9 19.1 161.8 1993 I 268.3 292.1 189.3 194.1 20.2 173.9 II 274.8 300.4 191.3 192.1 19.2 172.8 III 271.4 292.0 177.2 177.3 19.3 158.0 IV 271.2 289.2 172.1 171.2 19.4 151.8 Year 271.5 293.4 182.5 183.7 19.5 164.1 1994 Jan. 270.4 286.8 172.4 173.6 19.2 154.4 Feb. 268.9 284.9 172.7 174.7 19.2 155.5 Mar. 267.7 288.3 176.9 180.2 19.6 160.6 I 269.0 286.7 174.0 176.2 19.4 156.8 Apr. 269.9 287.1 176.8 180.7 19.9 160.8 May 271.5 288.1 167.6 164.8 19.0 145.8 June 265.0 283.3 158.5 152.9 19.0 133.9 II 268.8 286.2 167.6 166.1 19.3 146.8 July 262.2 280.1 160.4 156.7 19.5 137.2 Aug. 261.7 278.4 166.6 160.8 20.0 140.8 Sept. 262.1 280.0 162.0 158.2 21.4 136.8 III 262.0 279.5 163.0 158.6 20.3 138.3 Oct. 263.5 277.9 159.2 158.7 21.9 136.8 Nov. 257.0 280.2 163.8 164.5 22.8 141.7 Dec. 260.4 279.4 164.3 165.7 23.7 142.0 IV 260.3 279.2 162.4 163.0 22.8 140.2 Year 265.0 282.9 166.8 166.0 20.4 145.5 1995 Jan. 261.8 282.6 171.7 173.7 23.7 150.0 Feb. 261.7 284.3 170.4 174.6 23.3 151.3 Mar. 265.3 284.7 165.7 169.5 23.2 146.3 I 262.9 283.9 169.3 172.6 23.4 149.2 Apr. 260.1 283.7 158.5 162.2 22.8 139.4 May 261.5 282.2 160.4 154.0 21.1 132.9 June 257.6 283.4 165.6 154.2 20.1 134.1 II 259.7 283.1 161.5 156.8 21.3 135.5 July 258.1 287.4 158.5 149.0 19.9 129.1 --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Series revised August 1990. 2/ Estimated weighted-average of BLS prices of retail cuts from Choice Yield Grade 3 carcass. 3/ Value of wholesale quantity equivalent to 1 lb of retail cuts. A wh 4/ Market value to producer for 2.4 lb of live animal, equivalent to 1 lb of retail cuts. 5/ Portion of gross farm value attributed to edible and inedible by-products. 6/ Gross farm value minus farm by-product allowance. 7/ Percent net farm value is of retail price. Beef, Choice Yield Grade 3 spreads and farmers' share 1/ ----------------------------------------------------------- Farm retail-spread ------------------------------ Wholesale Farm to Farmers' 5-mkt Year Total to retail wholesale share steers ----------------------------------------------------------- - - - P $/cwt 1988 102.0 80.9 21.1 59.2 70.6 1989 108.1 88.9 19.2 59.3 74.0 1990 112.6 91.4 21.2 59.9 78.7 1991 128.1 105.8 22.3 55.6 74.3 1992 122.8 105.0 17.8 56.9 75.4 1993 I 118.3 102.8 15.5 59.3 80.9 II 127.6 109.1 18.5 57.7 80.0 III 134.0 114.8 19.2 54.0 73.9 IV 137.4 117.1 20.3 52.3 71.3 Year 129.3 110.9 18.4 55.8 76.5 1994 Jan. 132.4 114.4 18.0 53.8 72.4 Feb. 129.4 112.2 17.2 54.6 72.8 Mar. 127.7 111.4 16.3 55.7 75.1 I 129.9 112.7 17.2 54.7 73.4 Apr. 126.3 110.3 16.0 56.0 75.3 May 142.3 120.5 21.8 50.6 68.7 June 149.4 124.8 24.6 47.3 63.7 II 139.4 118.6 20.8 51.3 69.2 July 142.9 119.7 23.2 49.0 65.3 Aug. 137.6 111.8 25.8 50.6 67.0 Sept. 143.2 118.0 25.2 48.9 65.9 III 141.2 116.5 24.7 49.5 66.1 Oct. 141.1 118.7 22.4 49.2 66.1 Nov. 138.5 116.4 22.1 50.6 68.5 Dec. 137.4 115.1 22.3 50.8 69.1 IV 139.0 116.8 22.2 50.2 67.9 Year 137.4 116.1 21.2 51.6 69.2 1995 Jan. 132.6 110.9 21.7 53.0 72.4 Feb. 133.0 113.9 19.1 53.0 72.8 Mar. 138.4 119.0 19.4 51.0 70.6 I 134.7 114.6 20.1 52.6 71.9 Apr. 144.3 125.2 19.1 49.0 67.6 May 149.3 121.8 27.5 47.0 64.2 June 149.3 117.8 31.5 47.0 64.2 II 147.6 121.6 26.0 47.9 65.3 July 158.3 128.9 29.4 45.0 62.1 Average retail beef cut prices --------------------------------------------------------------------- Apr-95 May-95 Jun-95 Jul-95 --------------------------------------------------------------------- Dollars/lb Ground chuck 1.84 1.87 1.82 1.80 Ground beef 1.37 1.32 1.33 1.37 Ground beef 2.16 2.15 2.07 2.02 Chuck roast, bone-in 2.10 2.07 1.97 2.07 Chuck roast 1/ 2.17 2.19 2.16 2.07 Chuck roast, boneless 2.42 2.39 2.40 2.36 Round roast, boneless 2.93 2.96 2.82 2.83 Round roast 1/ 2.87 2.74 2.61 2.61 Rib roast, bone-in 4.94 5.04 4.92 5.00 Steak, T-Bone, bone-in 5.87 5.93 6.00 6.18 Steak, rib-eye, boneless 6.44 6.31 6.40 6.46 Steak, round, boneless 3.29 3.21 3.14 3.21 Steak, round 1/ 3.07 3.05 2.96 2.91 Steak, sirloin 1/ 3.64 3.76 3.69 3.78 Steak, sirloin, boneless 4.21 4.31 4.37 4.40 Beef for stew, boneless 2.52 2.52 2.50 2.50 1/ Non Choice or Prime Federally inspected cattle slaughter Week Cattle Steers and heifers All cows ended 1993 1994 1995 1993 1994 1995 1993 1994 1995 ---------------------------- --------------------- --------------------- ------------------------------------Thousands-------------------- Jan. 7 640 622 656 491 488 514 137 122 116 14 651 673 657 515 532 509 126 129 136 21 649 638 582 513 526 456 124 103 129 28 619 633 659 478 499 523 128 122 124 Feb. 4 597 618 634 465 490 504 120 118 118 11 607 616 617 482 494 485 113 111 119 18 595 646 642 481 516 515 103 118 115 25 613 618 641 482 494 508 119 114 122 Mar. 4 609 624 654 477 500 525 121 112 115 11 580 632 620 451 502 502 118 118 106 18 583 622 636 464 492 501 109 118 115 25 597 585 604 473 460 476 114 112 118 Apr. 1 571 575 632 448 458 511 112 104 109 8 561 606 645 446 492 532 105 102 102 15 589 622 604 469 497 491 109 111 101 22 634 650 648 506 525 527 116 112 108 29 653 656 678 523 541 555 117 102 113 May. 6 656 653 687 532 537 567 111 101 106 13 663 673 702 544 556 587 106 103 103 20 675 663 702 555 549 586 108 99 103 27 681 668 712 555 549 591 113 106 108 June 3 597 584 612 493 490 507 93 83 93 10 686 690 730 567 577 608 106 101 109 17 662 668 732 547 563 613 102 93 105 24 653 675 730 535 572 616 105 92 101 July 1 674 673 731 557 561 608 104 100 109 8 565 566 602 468 481 508 87 76 84 15 634 678 709 508 561 587 112 104 108 22 643 692 668 518 577 559 111 102 97 29 657 652 687 535 541 576 108 99 97 Aug. 5 672 633 553 523 106 97 12 676 649 552 536 111 100 19 664 665 537 544 112 107 26 635 680 507 553 114 113 Sept. 2 643 688 515 564 114 110 9 588 581 478 481 98 89 16 662 672 528 546 120 112 23 655 681 518 554 123 113 30 651 683 516 550 120 116 Oct. 7 629 672 500 539 116 121 14 643 674 505 541 124 121 21 663 681 525 547 125 121 28 641 682 499 539 128 131 Nov. 4 614 654 468 502 133 139 11 605 610 457 458 134 140 18 633 644 488 495 132 136 25 543 582 428 465 105 108 Dec. 2 637 676 489 521 136 143 9 622 665 476 508 133 144 16 613 662 482 518 121 132 23 502 623 399 492 94 120 30 569 562 463 449 98 103 END-END-END