MD_DA230 Fluid Milk and Cream - Central U.S. Report 14 - Released on April 04, 2019 Spring flush has already begun in the Southern Central area, while upper Midwestern farmers are reporting milk yield percentages have been higher month over month, in each month of 2019. Small to midsized dairy farmers report this trifecta of factors are pushing their counterparts out of business at a rapid clip: sub-$16 Class prices, low cull cow prices and high feed costs. Flood-affected farmers from the late March disasters are undoubtedly facing extreme hardships, namely livestock and feed/hay loss. Bottling this week was steady, yet underwhelming. Again, contacts suggest more sales focus is being put on dairy products such as cheese, butter and powders as bottled milk demand continues to decrease nationwide. Alternative plant-based beverage markets and lessening bottled milk purchases are putting a crunch on bottlers in the region and throughout the rest of the country. Cheesemakers continue to find spot milk discounts in most areas. The reported spot milk load price range was $1.25 under to Class III. Cream prices are firming somewhat, as cream cheese producers continue to produce ahead of spring holidays and ice cream makers have begun to enter the fray. Butter production is mixed, as some butter producers reported clearing some organic cream from other regions to add to their organic butter inventories. Cleanup and planning for this planting season, for those able, are being reported regularly. Warming temperatures in the upper Midwest forecast this weekend and early next week are giving some farmers hope they will be able to get into the fields and begin planting/preparation. South Central farm reports are generally positive, as winter wheat is greening up. Winter wheat yield expectations are strong, but price expectations are in flux. The DMN monthly average of the range price series for Upper Midwest Class II cream during March 2019 was $2.7342, compared to $2.6582 in February. National Retail Report Dairy ± Fluid Milk Summary Advertised Prices at Major Retail Supermarket Outlets ending during the period of 3/29/19 to 4/4/2019 Half Gallon, All Fat Tests Weighted Average Price National This Period Last Week Last Year Organic $4.33 $4.35 $4.14 Conventional $1.55 $1.85 $2.52 Regional (Conventional) Wtd. Ave. Low High Midwest n.a. n.a. n.a. South Central n.a. n.a. n.a. Regional (Organic) Wtd. Ave. Low High Midwest n.a. n.a. n.a. South Central n.a. n.a. n.a. Gallon, All Fat Tests Weighted Average Price National This Period Last Week Last Year Organic $6.99 $6.62 $6.18 Conventional $2.46 $2.88 $3.49 Regional (Conventional) Wtd. Ave. Low High Midwest $1.98 $1.98 $1.99 South Central $2.52 $1.99 $2.99 Regional (Organic) Wtd. Ave. Low High Midwest n.a. n.a. n.a. South Central n.a. n.a. n.a. Midwestern U.S., F.O.B. Cream Multiples Range - All Classes: 1.1800 - 1.2600 Price Range - Class II; $/LB Butterfat: 2.7204 - 2.8564 Multiples Range - Class II: 1.2000 - 1.2600 Information for the period April 1 - 5, 2019, issued weekly Secondary Sourced Information: Dairy Products Report - Ice Cream, Regular, Hard Released April 3, 2019, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Ice Cream, Regular (Hard) Production ± States and United States: February 2018 and 2019 Monthly Production (1000 pounds) Percent Change from Total Cream, Regular (Hard) February January February February January Region 2018 2019 2019 2018 2019 United States 55,411 53,551 51,142 -7.7 -4.5 Atlantic 12,315 12,815 11,725 -4.8 -8.5 Pennsylvania 2,032 2,697 2,127 4.7 -21.1 Central 33,140 31,749 29,750 -10.2 -6.3 Missouri 3,443 1,852 2,965 -13.9 60.1 Ohio 2,039 2,138 1,721 -15.6 -19.5 West 9,956 8,987 9,667 -2.9 7.6 California 4,762 4,390 4,346 -8.7 -1.0 Oregon 944 1,258 980 3.8 -22.1 Utah 2,390 1,478 2,294 -4.0 55.2 Ice Cream, Regular (Hard) ± Cumulative Production January - February Cumulative Production Percent Change (1000 pounds) from Report Month 2018 2019 2018 February 110,129 104,693 -4.9 Published by: Dairy Market News - Madison, WI ISRAEL WEBER, 608-422-8601 Email: israel.weber@ams.usda.gov Additional Dairy Market News Information: Dairy Market News (DMN) by Phone: (608)422-8602 DMN Website: http://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/dairy DMN Database Portal: http://www.marketnews.usda.gov/mnp/da-home