Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin ISSN: Released November 30, 2010, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). National Weather Summary November 21 - 27, 2010 Highlights: Heavy rain helped to recharge soil moisture in drought-affected areas from the northern Delta into the eastern Corn Belt. Weekly rainfall generally totaled 2 to 6 inches from central Arkansas and northern Mississippi northeastward into Ohio. Some of the heaviest rain fell in the hardest-hit drought areas from the Missouri Bootheel into the lower Ohio Valley. In contrast, little or no precipitation fell across the southern Atlantic States and the southern two-thirds of the Plains. In the Southeast, warm, dry weather allowed cotton harvesting and other late-autumn fieldwork to near completion. On the central and southern Plains, however, pockets of developing drought left some areas with poorly established winter wheat stands heading into the winter dormancy period. Elsewhere, highlights included snow on the northern Plains and cold, stormy weather in the majority of the West. In particular, well-established winter grains across the northern Plains and the Northwest were largely protected from bitterly cold conditions by a thick blanket of snow. Weekly temperatures averaged at least 10 to 20 degrees F below normal across the northern Plains and the Northwest, with readings plunging below -20 degrees F in parts of Montana. Farther east, temperatures averaged as much as 10 degrees F above normal in the western Gulf Coast region. At week's end, however, colder weather resulted in freezes as far south as south-central Texas. In winter agricultural areas of California, cold weather on November 25-26 necessitated some freeze- protection measures but did not significantly threaten citrus fruits. Early in the week, warmth surged across areas from the Plains eastward in advance of a Western storm. On November 21, daily-record highs reached 82 degrees F in Midland, TX, and 73 degrees F in Wichita, KS. A day later, highs climbed to record-setting levels for November 22 in locations such as Montgomery, AL (81 degrees F), and McAlester, OK (80 degrees F). Warmth continued for several more days across the South, with highs soaring to 94 degrees F on Thanksgiving Day (November 25) in McAllen, TX, and 85 degrees F (on November 23) in Vicksburg, MS. Charleston, SC (81 degrees F on November 25), experienced its warmest Thanksgiving Day on record, edging 80 degrees F on November 22, 1973, and November 28, 1985. In stark contrast, a record- setting cold wave gripped much of the West. Early-week record lows included - 18 degrees F (on November 22) in Choteau, MT, and -13 degrees F (on November 23) in Aberdeen, SD. From November 21-25, several Western locations reported readings of -20 degrees F or lower. On November 24, daily-record lows in Montana dipped to -27 degrees F at Rogers Pass, -24 degrees F in Sula and Dunkirk, and -21 degrees F in Great Falls. The following day, records for November 25 included -28 degrees F in Crested Butte, CO, and -20 degrees F in Ely, NV. Ely's low also set a November record (previously, -16 degrees F on November 28, 1896). Other monthly record lows included -17 degrees F (on November 24) in Odessa, WA, and -10 degrees F (on November 25) in Winnemucca, NV. Winnemucca's record had stood since November 18, 1880. During the mid- to late-week period, cold weather arrived in California. Truckee, CA (-9, -13, and -4 degrees F), posted three consecutive daily-record lows. Needles, CA (31 degrees F on November 27), experienced its first freeze since January 20, 2008, and first November freeze since 1994. In California's Central Valley, daily-record lows included 27 degrees F (on November 24) in Redding and 29 degrees F (on November 26) in Sacramento. Closer to the coast, Salinas, CA, notched three consecutive daily-record lows (30, 29, and 29 degrees F) from November 24-26. During the last full week of November, snow fell frequently from the Northwest into the upper Midwest. Daily-record snowfall amounts for November 22 reached 12.6 inches in Fargo, ND, and 2.5 inches in Seattle, WA. By Thanksgiving Day, November 25, snow depths included 11 inches in Billings, MT; 9 inches in Duluth, MN; 7 inches in Williston, ND; 6 inches in Pocatello, ID; and 5 inches in Spokane, WA. Billings received 14.9 inches of snow from November 18-23, representing its second-snowiest 6-day period in November behind 21.3 inches in November 1959. By November 27, Spokane's month-to-date snowfall of 20.5 inches marked its snowiest November since 1985, when 23.7 inches fell. With 7.5 inches on November 22, Spokane also noted its third- snowiest November day on record. Elsewhere, the Sierra Nevada snow pack contained an average of 6 inches of liquid by week's end, more than 140 percent of the late-November normal. From November 19-22, the Boreal Ski Resort near Truckee, CA, received 78 inches of snow. Farther east, November 22-25 rainfall totaled 5.19 inches in Evansville, IN. Daily-record rainfall totals topped 3 inches in Jackson, TN (3.09 inches on November 23), and St. Louis, MO (3.08 inches on November 24). In Ohio, Cincinnati received a daily- record total of 2.62 inches on November 25 en route to a November 23-26 event sum of 4.15 inches. Precipitation ended as snow in parts of the South and East, with Memphis, TN, reporting a trace of snow on both November 25 and 26. Mild, stormy weather encompassed much of Alaska, where weekly temperatures averaged as much as 25 degrees F above normal. King Salmon (52 and 51 degrees F) posted consecutive daily-record highs on November 22-23. Other Alaskan daily records included 49 degrees F (on November 23) in Kodiak and 33 degrees F (on November 22) in Barrow. Perhaps more impressive were some of the Alaskan precipitation totals. From November 22-24, Fairbanks received rainfall totaling 0.94 inch before precipitation changed to snow. The only greater winter rainfall event in Fairbanks' history occurred on January 20, 1937, when 0.99 inch fell. Meanwhile, month-to-date precipitation (through November 28) climbed to 2.87 inches in Anchorage, edging its November 1976 standard of 2.84 inches. Anchorage also received a daily-record snowfall of 6.7 inches on Thanksgiving Day, November 25. Elsewhere, McGrath received an astounding 2.10 inches of rain from November 21-24, while Barrow set a November record with 19.1 inches of snow (previously, 19.0 inches in 1925). Farther south, frequent but generally light showers dotted Hawaii. At the state's major observation sites, November 1-28 rainfall ranged from 0.55 inch (26 percent of normal) in Honolulu, Oahu, to 9.88 inches (68 percent) in Hilo, on the Big Island. Similarly, year-to-date rainfall ranged from 5.69 inches (37 percent of normal) in Honolulu to 55.22 inches (48 percent) in Hilo. National Weather Summary provided by USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board. For more information, call (202) 720-2397. Agricultural Summary November 22 - 28, 2010 Highlights: While near-normal or above average temperatures prevailed throughout the eastern half of the country, cooler than normal temperatures blanketed much of the west. Most notably, temperatures in the northern Rocky Mountains fell to more than 20 degrees below average in portions of Montana and Wyoming. Winter storm systems dumped precipitation totaling 3 inches or more in areas along the Pacific Coast, as well as throughout much of the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Winter Wheat: Nationally, winter wheat emergence had advanced to 94 percent complete by November 28, five percentage points ahead of last year and 2 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Emergence was complete or nearly complete in all estimating States except California, North Carolina, and Texas. Overall, 47 percent of the winter wheat crop was reported in good to excellent condition, unchanged from ratings last week but 16 percentage points below the same time last year. Cotton: By week's end, cotton producers in the major growing areas had harvested 91 percent of this year's crop, 11 percentage points ahead of last year and 10 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. In Texas, growers in Southern Low Plains continued to harvest cotton with average to above average yields being reported in both irrigated and dryland fields. Cotton Harvested - Selected States [These 15 States harvested 99% of the 2009 cotton acreage] ------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Week ending : :-----------------------------------------: State :November 28, :November 21, :November 28, : 2005-2009 : 2009 : 2010 : 2010 : Average ------------------------------------------------------------------------ : percent : Alabama ........: 71 90 93 90 Arizona ........: 78 60 63 75 Arkansas .......: 94 100 100 98 California .....: 94 97 98 96 Georgia ........: 65 85 90 82 Kansas .........: 26 69 75 58 Louisiana ......: 98 100 100 99 Mississippi ....: 96 100 100 99 Missouri .......: 85 100 100 95 North Carolina .: 79 93 97 88 Oklahoma .......: 49 73 81 69 South Carolina .: 88 94 98 88 Tennessee ......: 91 100 100 98 Texas ..........: 81 80 88 73 Virginia .......: 82 96 99 92 : 15 States ......: 80 86 91 81 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Winter Wheat Emerged - Selected States [These 18 States planted 89% of the 2010 winter wheat acreage] ------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Week ending : :-----------------------------------------: State :November 28, :November 21, :November 28, : 2005-2009 : 2009 : 2010 : 2010 : Average ------------------------------------------------------------------------ : percent : Arkansas .......: 62 89 96 83 California .....: 67 50 65 39 Colorado .......: 99 95 97 100 Idaho ..........: 99 98 99 99 Illinois .......: 70 99 99 93 Indiana ........: 76 90 96 93 Kansas .........: 91 92 95 97 Michigan .......: 99 100 100 95 Missouri .......: 52 89 95 81 Montana ........: 92 98 98 97 Nebraska .......: 100 99 100 100 North Carolina .: 48 63 65 57 Ohio ...........: 93 100 100 97 Oklahoma .......: 92 94 98 94 Oregon .........: 99 95 99 93 South Dakota ...: 100 100 100 100 Texas ..........: 83 80 82 83 Washington .....: 96 97 97 97 : 18 States ......: 89 91 94 92 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Winter Wheat Condition - Selected States: Week Ending November 28, 2010 [National crop conditions for selected States are weighted based on 2010 planted acreage] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Very poor : Poor : Fair : Good : Excellent ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent : Arkansas .......: 5 17 26 41 11 California .....: - - 5 35 60 Colorado .......: 8 32 43 16 1 Idaho ..........: 1 2 14 65 18 Illinois .......: 3 17 42 34 4 Indiana ........: 7 18 45 26 4 Kansas .........: 8 17 38 33 4 Michigan .......: 1 4 26 51 18 Missouri .......: 3 12 42 42 1 Montana ........: - 3 23 63 11 Nebraska .......: 1 10 44 39 6 North Carolina .: - - 13 75 12 Ohio ...........: - 6 29 51 14 Oklahoma .......: 1 7 48 37 7 Oregon .........: - 7 33 58 2 South Dakota ...: - 2 28 57 13 Texas ..........: 6 20 38 32 4 Washington .....: - - 14 68 18 : 18 States ......: 4 13 36 39 8 : Previous week ..: 4 12 37 39 8 Previous year ..: 1 5 31 50 13 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Represents zero. Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: Crop progress and condition estimates are based on survey data collected each week from early April through the end of November. The non-probability crop progress and condition surveys include input from approximately 5,000 reporters whose occupations provide them opportunities to make visual observations and frequently bring them in contact with farmers in their counties. Based on standard definitions, these reporters subjectively estimate the progress of crops through various stages of development, as well as the progress of producer activities. They also provide subjective evaluations of crop conditions. Most reporters complete their questionnaires on Friday or early Monday morning and submit them to the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Field Offices in their States by mail, telephone, fax, e-mail, or through a secured internet website. A small number of reports are completed on Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday. Regardless of when questionnaires are completed, reporters are asked to report for the entire week ending on Sunday. For reports submitted prior to the Sunday reference date, a degree of uncertainty is introduced by projections for weekend changes in progress and condition. By the end of the 2009 season, over 80 percent of the data were being submitted through the internet website. As a result, the majority of all data are submitted on Monday morning, significantly reducing projection uncertainty. Reporters are sent written reporting instructions at the beginning of each season and are contacted periodically to ensure proper reporting. Terms and definitions of crop stages and condition categories used as reporting guidelines are available on the NASS website at www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/National_Crop_Progress. Estimating Procedures: Reported data are reviewed for reasonableness and consistency by comparing with data reported the previous week and data reported in surrounding counties for the current week. Each State Field Office summarizes the reported data to district and State levels, weighting each county's reported data by NASS county acreage estimates. Summarized indications are compared with previous week estimates, and progress items are compared with earlier stages of development and historical averages to ensure reasonableness. Weather events and reporter comments are also taken into consideration. State estimates are submitted to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB) along with supporting comments, where they are compared with surrounding States and compiled into a National level summary by weighting each State by its acreage estimates. Revision Policy: Progress and condition estimates in the Crop Progress report are released after 4:00 pm ET on the first business day of the week. These estimates are preliminary and subject to corrections or updates in the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin that is released at 12:00 pm ET on the second business day of the week. These estimates are subject to revision the following week. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov Lance Honig, Chief, Crops Branch........................... (202) 720-2127 Jacqueline Moore, Head, Field Crops Section................ (202) 720-2127 Suzanne Avilla - Peanuts, Rice........................ (202) 720-7688 Bryan Durham - Hay, Oats.............................. (202) 690-3234 Steve Maliszewski - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum.. (202) 720-5944 Anthony Prillaman - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed...... (202) 720-9526 Nick Schauer - Wheat, Rye............................. (202) 720-8068 Julie Schmidt - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops..... (202) 720-7621 Travis Thorson - Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds.. (202) 720-7369 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: http://www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. To set-up this free subscription, visit http://www.nass.usda.gov and in the "Receive NASS Updates" box under "Receive reports by Email," click on "National" or "State" to select the reports you would like to receive. 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