Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin ISSN: Released November 23, 2010, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). National Weather Summary November 7 - 13, 2010 Highlights: Highly beneficial precipitation (rain and wet snow) aided winter wheat across parts of the central and southern Plains. Weekly totals exceeded 2 inches in many locations from the northern panhandle of Texas to southeastern Nebraska. However, precipitation largely bypassed drought-stressed wheat on the central High Plains, including much of eastern Colorado and westernmost Kansas. Meanwhile, the season's first significant snowfall blanketed the upper Midwest at week's end. Snowfall locally reached a foot in parts of Minnesota, although summer crop harvesting was largely finished in the storm-affected area. Farther east, however, drought continued to adversely affect pastures and winter wheat in the eastern Corn Belt, particularly in the lower Ohio Valley. In contrast, Southeastern pastures and winter grains continued to benefit from recent soil moisture improvements, although pockets of severe to extreme drought persisted. A Southern warming trend promoted late-season fieldwork, including winter wheat planting and cotton and peanut harvesting. Elsewhere, cool, unsettled weather prevailed in the West. Precipitation was heaviest across northern California and the Northwest. California's early-week rainfall caused some temporary delays in cotton harvesting and other autumn fieldwork. Weekly temperatures averaged at least 5 degrees Fahrenheit below normal in parts of the West and the southern Atlantic region, but were more than 10 degrees Fahrenheit above normal in much of the western Corn Belt. Early in the week, chilly weather in the Southeast contrasted with late-season warmth across the Nation's midsection. On November 7, daily-record lows dipped to 26 degrees Fahrenheit in Charlotte, North Carolina, and 41 degrees Fahrenheit in Lakeland, Florida. In contrast, highs soared to daily-record levels in Hill City, Kansas (83 degrees Fahrenheit), and Havre, Montana (75 degrees Fahrenheit). The following day, records for November 8 included a low of 34 degrees Fahrenheit in Gainesville, Florida, and a high of 82 degrees Fahrenheit in Garden City, Kansas. By midweek, warmth expanded across the Midwest in advance of an approaching storm. International Falls, Minnesota (64 degrees Fahrenheit), posted consecutive daily-record highs on November 9-10. Additional daily-record highs on the latter date included 72 degrees Fahrenheit in Ottumwa, Iowa; 70 degrees Fahrenheit in Rockford, Illinois; and 68 degrees Fahrenheit in Minneapolis-St. Paul (MSP), Minnesota. MSP's warm spell, which included a high of 69 degrees Fahrenheit on November 9, was followed by an 8.0-inch snowfall on November 13-14. Other official snowfall totals in Minnesota included 10.9 inches in Duluth and 10.4 inches in Chanhassen. Farther west, cold air trailed the winter-like storm. Boise, Idaho (28 degrees Fahrenheit on November 9), experienced its second-latest first autumn freeze on record, behind only November 11, 1944. The following day in southern California, daily-record lows for November 10 included 27 degrees Fahrenheit in Campo and 32 degrees Fahrenheit in Ramona. Later, Douglas, Arizona (23 degrees Fahrenheit), notched a daily-record low for November 13. Early-week precipitation was heaviest across the West, although some light snow dusted the Northeast. Daily-record snowfall totals for November 8 included 0.4 inch in Bridgeport, Connecticut, and 0.1 inch in Providence, Rhode Island. Meanwhile, 5.9 inches of snow blanketed Ely, Nevada, from November 8-10. Elsewhere in the West, daily-record precipitation totals reached 1.92 inches (on November 7) in Crescent City, California, and 0.88 inch (on November 8) in Salt Lake City, Utah. By November 11, impressive rainfall reached the central and southern Plains. On November 11-12, Concordia, Kansas, received consecutive daily-record amounts, totaling 2.61 inches. Medicine Lodge, Kansas, netted 2.75 inches, including a daily-record sum (2.60 inches) on November 12. Rain briefly changed to snow across Texas' northern panhandle, resulting in a November 12 accumulation of 3.0 inches in Amarillo. Toward week's end, heavy precipitation shifted into the upper Midwest, where Iowa locations such as Des Moines (1.96 inches) and Mason City (1.56 inches) collected daily-record precipitation totals for November 12. Mason City's 2-day (November 12-13) rainfall reached 2.41 inches. The aforementioned heavy snow fell northwest of the storm's track, primarily from western Iowa into the upper Great Lakes region. Mild weather across the majority of Alaska contrasted with chilly conditions in the southwestern part of the State. Meanwhile, mostly dry weather prevailed in western Alaska, while wet conditions affected southeastern areas. During the first 13 days of November, precipitation totaled 6.19 inches (241 percent of normal) in Juneau, while 15.74 inches soaked Pelican. Farther south, mostly dry weather returned to Hawaii, following recent, drought-easing rainfall. On the Big Island, Hilo's month-to-date rainfall of 3.43 inches (52 percent of normal) left its January 1 - November 13 total at 48.77 inches (46 percent). National Weather Summary provided by USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board. For more information, call (202) 720-2397. Agricultural Summary November 15 - 21, 2010 Highlights: With the exception of a portion of Montana, where temperatures dipped to as many as 13 degrees below normal, a week of near-normal temperatures prevailed across much of the country during the week. Above average precipitation totaling 200 percent or more above normal fell throughout the northern Rocky Mountains, Great Basin, and much of the Southeast, benefitting recently sown small grain crops and helping to replenish low soil moisture levels. Elsewhere, dry weather aided the late harvest of remaining summer row crops in the Midwest. Winter Wheat: By week's end, 91 percent of the 2011 winter wheat crop was emerged, 7 percentage points ahead of last year and 2 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Near-normal temperatures in Arkansas, California, Indiana, and North Carolina promoted double-digit progress during the week. Overall, 47 percent of the winter wheat crop was reported in good to excellent condition, up slightly from ratings last week but 17 percentage points below the same time last year. Cotton: Nationally, cotton producers had harvested 86 percent of this year's crop by November 21, seventeen percentage points ahead of last year and 13 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Producers in California, South Carolina, and Texas took advantage of mild, mostly dry conditions throughout much of the week and harvested 12 percent of their crop. Sorghum: Harvest advanced to 95 percent complete by week's end, 22 percentage points ahead of last year and 8 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Harvest was complete or nearly complete in all estimating States except New Mexico and Texas. Other Crops: By November 21, ninety-six percent to this year's peanut crop was harvested, 10 percentage points ahead of last year and 3 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Harvest was complete or nearly complete in all estimating States except Alabama, where progress typically trails other States and was 32 percentage points ahead of last year and 5 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Nationwide, 96 percent of the sunflower crop was harvested by week's end, 19 percentage points ahead of last year and 6 percentage points ahead of normal. Cotton Harvested - Selected States [These 15 States harvested 99% of the 2009 cotton acreage] ------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Week ending : :-----------------------------------------: State :November 21, :November 14, :November 21, : 2005-2009 : 2009 : 2010 : 2010 : Average ------------------------------------------------------------------------ : percent : Alabama ........: 58 88 90 85 Arizona ........: 74 55 60 70 Arkansas .......: 80 100 100 94 California .....: 90 85 97 91 Georgia ........: 54 79 85 74 Kansas .........: 13 61 69 46 Louisiana ......: 95 100 100 99 Mississippi ....: 93 100 100 98 Missouri .......: 77 100 100 91 North Carolina .: 74 86 93 84 Oklahoma .......: 43 69 73 62 South Carolina .: 75 82 94 80 Tennessee ......: 79 99 100 93 Texas ..........: 68 68 80 62 Virginia .......: 67 94 96 83 : 15 States ......: 69 78 86 73 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Sorghum Harvested - Selected States [These 11 States harvested 99% of the 2009 sorghum acreage] ------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Week ending : :-----------------------------------------: State :November 21, :November 14, :November 21, : 2005-2009 : 2009 : 2010 : 2010 : Average ------------------------------------------------------------------------ : percent : Arkansas .......: 100 100 100 100 Colorado .......: 63 93 98 85 Illinois .......: 80 98 99 93 Kansas .........: 68 96 98 88 Louisiana ......: 100 100 100 100 Missouri .......: 79 100 100 93 Nebraska .......: 65 98 99 87 New Mexico .....: 96 59 77 75 Oklahoma .......: 78 92 94 79 South Dakota ...: 85 100 100 94 Texas ..........: 77 90 91 87 : 11 States ......: 73 93 95 87 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Peanuts Harvested - Selected States [These 8 States harvested 98% of the 2009 peanut acreage] ------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Week ending : :-----------------------------------------: State :November 21, :November 14, :November 21, : 2005-2009 : 2009 : 2010 : 2010 : Average ------------------------------------------------------------------------ : percent : Alabama ........: 58 82 90 85 Florida ........: 96 98 100 98 Georgia ........: 87 92 97 93 North Carolina .: 97 95 97 99 Oklahoma .......: 91 95 100 94 South Carolina .: 100 100 100 100 Texas ..........: 96 96 97 95 Virginia .......: 100 96 100 100 : 8 States .......: 86 92 96 93 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Sunflowers Harvested - Selected States [These 4 States harvested 85% of the 2009 sunflower acreage] ------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Week ending : :-----------------------------------------: State :November 21, :November 14, :November 21, : 2005-2009 : 2009 : 2010 : 2010 : Average ------------------------------------------------------------------------ : percent : Colorado .......: 69 88 97 91 Kansas .........: 62 90 94 87 North Dakota ...: 82 88 95 93 South Dakota ...: 76 89 98 87 : 4 States .......: 77 89 96 90 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Winter Wheat Emerged - Selected States [These 18 States planted 89% of the 2010 winter wheat acreage] ------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Week ending : :-----------------------------------------: State :November 21, :November 14, :November 21, : 2005-2009 : 2009 : 2010 : 2010 : Average ------------------------------------------------------------------------ : percent : Arkansas .......: 44 71 89 72 California .....: 56 25 50 33 Colorado .......: 96 94 95 99 Idaho ..........: 95 96 98 95 Illinois .......: 64 97 99 90 Indiana ........: 64 80 90 89 Kansas .........: 87 89 92 94 Michigan .......: 94 98 100 93 Missouri .......: 42 80 89 75 Montana ........: 90 98 98 96 Nebraska .......: 100 98 99 100 North Carolina .: 38 40 63 45 Ohio ...........: 80 95 100 92 Oklahoma .......: 85 92 94 90 Oregon .........: 93 89 95 81 South Dakota ...: 98 99 100 99 Texas ..........: 79 72 80 79 Washington .....: 94 97 97 93 : 18 States ......: 84 87 91 89 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Winter Wheat Condition - Selected States: Week Ending November 21, 2010 [National crop conditions for selected States are weighted based on 2010 planted acreage] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Very poor : Poor : Fair : Good : Excellent ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent : Arkansas .......: 7 18 35 36 4 California .....: - - 10 40 50 Colorado .......: 6 31 43 19 1 Idaho ..........: 1 2 14 69 14 Illinois .......: 1 8 53 36 2 Indiana ........: 10 22 44 22 2 Kansas .........: 8 18 38 32 4 Michigan .......: 1 4 26 51 18 Missouri .......: 3 12 42 42 1 Montana ........: - 1 25 59 15 Nebraska .......: 1 9 45 39 6 North Carolina .: - - 22 70 8 Ohio ...........: - 5 33 49 13 Oklahoma .......: 1 6 51 37 5 Oregon .........: - 5 29 60 6 South Dakota ...: - 2 28 57 13 Texas ..........: 6 20 39 28 7 Washington .....: - - 13 70 17 : 18 States ......: 4 12 37 39 8 : Previous week ..: 4 13 37 38 8 Previous year ..: 1 5 30 51 13 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Represents zero. Crop Progress and Condition Tables Expected Next Week Cotton: Harvested Winter Wheat: Emerged, Condition Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: Crop progress and condition estimates are based on survey data collected each week from early April through the end of November. The non-probability crop progress and condition surveys include input from approximately 5,000 reporters whose occupations provide them opportunities to make visual observations and frequently bring them in contact with farmers in their counties. Based on standard definitions, these reporters subjectively estimate the progress of crops through various stages of development, as well as the progress of producer activities. They also provide subjective evaluations of crop conditions. Most reporters complete their questionnaires on Friday or early Monday morning and submit them to the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Field Offices in their States by mail, telephone, fax, e-mail, or through a secured internet website. A small number of reports are completed on Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday. Regardless of when questionnaires are completed, reporters are asked to report for the entire week ending on Sunday. For reports submitted prior to the Sunday reference date, a degree of uncertainty is introduced by projections for weekend changes in progress and condition. By the end of the 2009 season, over 80 percent of the data were being submitted through the internet website. As a result, the majority of all data are submitted on Monday morning, significantly reducing projection uncertainty. Reporters are sent written reporting instructions at the beginning of each season and are contacted periodically to ensure proper reporting. Terms and definitions of crop stages and condition categories used as reporting guidelines are available on the NASS website at www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/National_Crop_Progress. Estimating Procedures: Reported data are reviewed for reasonableness and consistency by comparing with data reported the previous week and data reported in surrounding counties for the current week. Each State Field Office summarizes the reported data to district and State levels, weighting each county's reported data by NASS county acreage estimates. Summarized indications are compared with previous week estimates, and progress items are compared with earlier stages of development and historical averages to ensure reasonableness. Weather events and reporter comments are also taken into consideration. State estimates are submitted to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB) along with supporting comments, where they are compared with surrounding States and compiled into a National level summary by weighting each State by its acreage estimates. Revision Policy: Progress and condition estimates in the Crop Progress report are released after 4:00 pm ET on the first business day of the week. These estimates are preliminary and subject to corrections or updates in the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin that is released at 12:00 pm ET on the second business day of the week. These estimates are subject to revision the following week. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov Lance Honig, Chief, Crops Branch........................... (202) 720-2127 Jacqueline Moore, Head, Field Crops Section................ (202) 720-2127 Suzanne Avilla - Peanuts, Rice........................ (202) 720-7688 Bryan Durham - Hay, Oats.............................. (202) 690-3234 Steve Maliszewski - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum.. (202) 720-5944 Anthony Prillaman - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed...... (202) 720-9526 Nick Schauer - Wheat, Rye............................. (202) 720-8068 Julie Schmidt - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops..... (202) 720-7621 Travis Thorson - Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds.. (202) 720-7369 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: http://www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. To set-up this free subscription, visit http://www.nass.usda.gov and in the "Receive NASS Updates" box under "Receive reports by Email," click on "National" or "State" to select the reports you would like to receive. Printed reports may be purchased from the National Technical Information Service (NTIS) by calling toll-free (800) 999-6779, or (703) 605-6220 if calling from outside the United States or Canada. Accepted methods of payment are Visa, MasterCard, check, or money order. For more information on NASS surveys and reports, call the NASS Agricultural Statistics Hotline at (800) 727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: nass@nass.usda.gov. 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