FRUIT AND TREE NUTS -- SUMMARY                          March 22, 2000
March 2000, ERS-FTS-288
               Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
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This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department 
of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831.  The complete text of FRUIT AND TREE
NUTS will be available electronically in about a week following release of this
summary.
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Larger Citrus Crop Lowered Prices Early in 2000
 
The index of prices received by growers for fruit and nuts has
averaged lower during the first 2 months of 2000 than any other
year since 1995. Lower prices for fresh oranges have driven the
overall index. Prices are expected to remain above a year ago,
however, for the 1999/2000 marketing year for grapefruit, lemons,
apples, and pears. Good weather in both Florida and California
this past winter produced a large strawberry crop and brought
down prices. The Consumer Price Index for fresh fruit during
January and February averaged about the same as a year earlier.
Lower orange and strawberry prices offset higher prices for other
fruit.
 
The 1999/2000 orange crop is expected to increase 29 percent over
the previous year's crop due to good weather conditions in
Florida and California. As of March 1, 2000, the crop is
forecast to total 12.8 million tons. Orange production is
expected to be larger in all citrus-producing States, except
Arizona, with the largest percentage increase in California.
California's orange crop is expected to increase 76 percent from
last year, and Florida's crop is expected to increase 22 percent.
The crop was late to mature again this year as it was last year.
The large crop this year has put downward pressure on prices.
 
California's navel orange crop appears to have mostly recovered
from last year's freeze, with a 91-percent increase in crop size.
Damage to the trees seems to have been less than was expected,
however, production has not returned to the same quantity as
before the freeze. The fruit are mostly smaller than average in
size this year. The sizing problem of this year's navel orange
crop could adversely affect grower prices. This year's navel
crop was late to mature because fruit were late to obtain the
right color and sugar levels. The Valencia orange crop is
projected to increase 49 percent to 1 million tons in 1999/2000.
If realized, this crop would be the largest since 1995/96. The
fruit are expected to be of good quality, which should moderate
any decline in prices due to the larger supplies.
 
Florida is expected to produce 20 percent more early- to mid-season
oranges and 25 percent more Valencia oranges than a year
ago. Orange juice production for 1999/2000 is forecast at 1.4
million single-strength equivalent (sse) gallons, up 15 percent
from last year, but below levels produced in 1996/97 and 1997/98.
The larger crop this year, along with high beginning juice
stocks, lowered processing orange grower prices for the first
quarter of the marketing year. Prices, however, have steadily
increased since the beginning of the season. Prices should
continue to improve as the season progresses due to low juice
yields, and improved fruit, which will mean higher demand for
fruit.
 
The U. S. grapefruit crop is expected to total 2.5 million tons
in 1999/2000, 2 percent lower than last year. Grower prices
continue to improve for the second consecutive year. From
October through February, prices for all grapefruit have averaged
$4.35 per box, the highest since 1993/94. The average price for
Florida's processing grapefruit has been the highest in 8 years
during October through February. Processors' demand for
grapefruit is strong because of low juice stocks coming into the
marketing year.
 
The 1999/2000 U.S. lemon crop is expected to produce 916,000 tons
of fruit, 23 percent more than last year. California's lemon
trees in the San Joaquin Valley appear to have recovered from
last year's freeze, and the State's production is expected to
increase 30 percent over last year. Lemon grower prices in
California for 1999/2000 (August-February) have averaged $2.09
per box below a year earlier. The larger lemon crop has kept
prices down. California's production should be sufficient to
last through the summer, the biggest consumption season.
 
Improved weather conditions in both Florida and California
contributed to the projection for larger tangerine and Temple
crops in 1999/2000. The tangerine crop, the largest among the
specialty citrus crops, is expected to be 38 percent larger this
year than 1998/99, with an expected record total of 450,000 tons.
 
The 1999 utilized production of noncitrus fruit was estimated at
about 17.1 million short tons, up 4 percent from 1998. Utilized
production increased for avocados, Hawaiian bananas, berries,
sweet cherries, cranberries, grapes, nectarines, olives, Hawaiian
papayas, peaches, pears, pineapples, strawberries, and California
plums and prunes. The preliminary estimate of the value of
noncitrus fruit production for 1999 was a record $8.2 billion, up
14 percent from the previous year.
 
Washington apple production decreased by 23 percent in 1999, from
6.6 billion to 5.1 billion pounds. Although production increased
in other important apple-producing States, such as New York,
Michigan, and Pennsylvania, the 1999 U.S. apple crop declined
nearly 8 percent from 1998 to 10.7 billion pounds. This year's
smaller crop in Washington will lead to a decrease in fresh-market
supplies for the 1999/2000 marketing season, and apple
prices are likely to average higher than the previous season.
 
The winter of 1999 provided near-ideal growing conditions for
Florida strawberry producers. Strawberry production increased 15
percent from 1998. Unlike the previous winter, this year's winter
weather was cooler and has contributed to a high-quality crop.
California, which produces about 83 percent of the U.S. total, is
expected to have a good growing season as well. According to the
California Strawberry Commission, planted acreage for 2000 is up
7 percent from 1999. In addition, warm January temperatures have
led to good crop development, and a relatively drier growing
season is yielding good-quality strawberries.
 
California's avocado crop is expected to be about 20 percent
greater in 1999/2000 than the previous year. Because overall
domestic supplies are anticipated to exceed last season, avocado
prices are likely to average lower. A larger U.S. crop and lower
domestic prices point to fewer imports in 1999/2000, however,
Mexican avocado imports are expected to continue to increase as
they have since gaining access to the U.S. market in 1997.
 
Imports of Chilean fresh fruits have seen steady growth in the
United States. Major fresh fruit imports increased an average of
31 percent a year throughout the nineties. In 1999, U.S. imports
of major Chilean fresh fruit increased 34 percent over 1998.
Most of the increase was from larger shipments of stone
fruit-peaches and plums, as well as pears and berries, such as
blueberries and raspberries. Grape imports fell 5 percent in
1999 from the previous year.
 
Production of all of the major tree nuts increased sharply in
1999, except for pistachios and macadamia nuts, reaching a record
of 1.25 million tons, in-shell equivalent, up 38 percent from the
previous season. The preliminary estimate of the value of
production for almonds, hazelnuts, walnuts, pistachios,
macadamias, and pecans increased approximately 9 percent from
1998.
 
Printed copies of the Fruit and Tree Nuts Situation and Outlook
report will be available in about 2 weeks. For more information,
contact Susan Pollack 202-694-5251. The text of the report will
also be available electronically via the ERS website at
www.ers.usda.gov.
 

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