Mt An 5-2 (7-05) Sheep National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released July 22, 2005, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on Sheep call Scott Hollis at 202-720-4751, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. July 1 All Sheep and Lamb Inventory Up 2 Percent All sheep and lamb inventory in the United States on July 1, 2005, totaled 7.80 million head, 2 percent above July 1, 2004. Breeding sheep inventory at 4.66 million head on July 1, 2005 was 2 percent above July 1, 2004. Market sheep and lambs (including newborn lambs) at 3.14 million head, were 1 percent above last July. The breeding herd consists of 3.79 million ewes one year old and older, 185,000 rams one year old and older, and 680,000 replacement lambs (including newborn lambs). Market lamb inventory at 3.06 million head was comprised of 1.81 million lambs under 65 pounds, 635,000 lambs 65-84 pounds, 350,000 lambs 85-105 pounds, and 260,000 lambs over 105 pounds. Market sheep inventory was 90,000. The 2005 Lamb Crop in the United States is expected to total 4.12 million head, up 1 percent from the 2004 lamb crop of 4.10 million head. Lambs born during January through June 2005 totaled 3.65 million head or 89 percent of the yearly total. An additional 470,000 head are expected to be born during the period July through December 2005. Region 3 (CO, MT, SD, UT, & WY) accounted for 34.0 percent of all sheep and lambs. Region 2 (NM & TX) accounted for 19.2 percent, Region 1 (AZ, CA, ID, NV, OR, & WA) for 16.7 percent, Region 4 (IA, KS, MN, MO, NE, ND, & OK) for 15.4 percent, and Region 5 (all other States) for 14.7 percent. All Sheep and Lambs Inventory: By Region and United States, July 1, 2004-2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : All Sheep : 2005 : Breeding Sheep : Market Sheep : and Lambs : as % : and Lambs : and Lambs Regions 1/ :------------------: of :---------------------------------------- : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head Pct ------------ 1,000 Head ------------ : Region 1 : 1,290 1,300 101 810 805 480 495 : Region 2 : 1,470 1,500 102 960 1,000 510 500 : Region 3 : 2,600 2,650 102 1,430 1,460 1,170 1,190 : Region 4 : 1,180 1,200 102 650 665 530 535 : Region 5 : 1,110 1,150 104 695 725 415 425 : US : 7,650 7,800 102 4,545 4,655 3,105 3,145 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ States included in regions as follows: 1 - AZ, CA, ID, NV, OR, & WA; 2 - NM & TX; 3 - CO, MT, SD, UT, & WY; 4 - IA, KS, MN, MO, NE, ND, & OK; 5 - all other States. Breeding Sheep and Lambs Inventory: By Region and United States, July 1, 2004-2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Breeding Sheep-One Year Old & Older : :Total Breeding :-------------------------------------: Replacement : Sheep and Regions 1/ : Ewes : Rams : Lambs : Lambs :------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : Region 1 : 685 685 30 30 95 90 810 805 : Region 2 : 800 815 40 45 120 140 960 1,000 : Region 3 : 1,210 1,220 40 40 180 200 1,430 1,460 : Region 4 : 525 535 30 30 95 100 650 665 : Region 5 : 525 535 40 40 130 150 695 725 : US : 3,745 3,790 180 185 620 680 4,545 4,655 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ States included in regions as follows: 1 - AZ, CA, ID, NV, OR, & WA; 2 - NM & TX; 3 - CO, MT, SD, UT, & WY; 4 - IA, KS, MN, MO, NE, ND, & OK; 5 - all other States. Market Sheep and Lambs Inventory: By Region and United States, July 1, 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Market Lambs : : :----------------------------------------------: : Market Regions 1/ : Under : 65 : 85 : Over : : Market : Sheep and : 65 : to : to : 105 : Total : Sheep : Lambs : Pounds : 84 lbs :105 lbs : Pounds : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : Region 1 : 140 150 120 55 465 30 495 : Region 2 : 335 115 25 15 490 10 500 : Region 3 : 820 150 80 120 1,170 20 1,190 : Region 4 : 240 135 85 55 515 20 535 : Region 5 : 275 85 40 15 415 10 425 : US : 1,810 635 350 260 3,055 90 3,145 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ States included in regions as follows: 1 - AZ, CA, ID, NV, OR, & WA; 2 - NM & TX; 3 - CO, MT, SD, UT, & WY; 4 - IA, KS, MN, MO, NE, ND, & OK; 5 - all other States. Market Sheep and Lambs Inventory: By Region and United States, July 1, 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Market Lambs : : :----------------------------------------------: : Market Region 1/ : Under : 65 : 85 : Over : : Market : Sheep and : 65 : to : to : 105 : Total : Sheep : Lambs : Pounds : 84 lbs :105 lbs : Pounds : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : Region 1 : 130 155 130 50 465 15 480 : Region 2 : 340 115 30 15 500 10 510 : Region 3 : 830 150 70 100 1,150 20 1,170 : Region 4 : 240 135 85 55 515 15 530 : Region 5 : 260 80 40 20 400 15 415 : US : 1,800 635 355 240 3,030 75 3,105 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ States included in regions as follows: 1 - AZ, CA, ID, NV, OR, & WA; 2 - NM & TX; 3 - CO, MT, SD, UT, & WY; 4 - IA, KS, MN, MO, NE, ND, & OK; 5 - all other States. Lamb Crop: Per 100 Ewes 1+, Number by Region and United States, 2005 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Total : Breeding : Lambs per Regions : Lambs Born :Lambs Expected: Lamb : Ewes 1+ :100 Ewes 1+ 2/ : Jan-Jun 3/ : Jul-Dec 4/ : Crop : Jan 1 : Jan 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------------ 1,000 Head ------------------ Number : Region 1 : 540 200 740 700 106 : Region 2 : 580 110 690 747 92 : Region 3 : 1,260 30 1,290 1,058 122 : Region 4 : 610 50 660 489 135 : Region 5 : 660 80 740 579 128 : US : 3,650 470 4,120 3,573 115 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Lamb crop is lambs born in the Eastern States and lambs docked or branded in the Western States. 2/ States included in regions as follows: 1 - AZ, CA, ID, NV, OR, & WA; 2 - NM & TX; 3 - CO, MT, SD, UT, & WY; 4 - IA, KS, MN, MO, NE, ND, & OK; 5 - all other States. 3/ Lambs born alive between January 1, through June 30, 2005. 4/ Lambs expected to be born July through December 2005. Reliability of July 1 Sheep and Lamb Estimates Survey Procedures: A random sample of U.S. producers was surveyed to provide data for these estimates. Survey procedures ensured that all sheep producers, regardless of size, had a chance to be included in the survey. Data were collected during the first half of June from about 39,700 operations. These operators were contacted by face-to-face personal interviews. About 4,600 producers and feedlots were contacted during the first half of July by mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews. Operators were asked to report inventories as of the first of the month and lamb crop for the entire year of 2005. Estimation Procedures: These sheep and lamb estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board. National and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness and with estimates from past years. A projected balance sheet for calendar year 2005 was also used. The balance sheet begins with the previous inventory estimate, adds estimates of births and imports, and subtracts estimates of slaughter, exports and deaths. This indicated ending inventory level is compared with the Agricultural Statistics Board estimate for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve the current estimate. Previous year estimates are subject to revision when current estimates are made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Department of Agriculture's five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations raising sheep and lambs are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors, such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for lamb crop in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between the first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for lamb crop estimates over the past 10 years is 3.0 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 4.12 million head by more than 3.0 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 5.4 percent. Also shown in the table is a 10-year record showing the range between the first inventory estimate and the latest estimate. Estimate changes for Lamb Crop between the first inventory estimate and the latest estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 105,000 head, ranging from 4,000 to 406,000 head. The initial inventory estimate of Lamb Crop has been below the latest estimate 9 times and above the latest estimate 1 time in the last 10 years. Reliability of U.S. July 1 Sheep and Lamb Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90% : Difference Between : : : Confidence : First and Final : Number of : Root : Level : Estimates : Years Item : Mean :--------------------------------------------------------- : Square : : : : : : First : First : Error :Percent: Head :Average:Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent --------- 1,000 Head --------- Number : Lamb Crop : 3.0 5.4 223.0 105 4 406 1 9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on data for the past 10 years. ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. 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