------------------- ldp-m-14.asc follows --------------------
Livestock, Dairy and Poultry
Situation and Outlook
Economic Research Service LDP-M-14
U.S. Department of Agriculture February 24, 1995
(Revised 2/27/95)
Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
The share of consumer income spent on meat is expected to grow
slightly in 1995, a deviation from the long downward trend. The
additional dollars will be absorbed by the poultry sector, however,
and will come primarily from significantly larger production rather
than higher retail prices.
Food expenditures represent about 11 percent of disposable personal
income, and the meat complex likely accounts for between 20 and 30
percent of this total. Per capita dollars spent on meat should
average near $418 this year, or approximately $110 billion. This
amount does not reflect value added services included with away-
from-home consumption.
Statistics are not regularly collected on the breakout between at-
home and away-from-home meat consumption. But, the overall trend
has shown higher away-from-home expenditures on food and meat
consumption likely follows that trend.
Continued price pressure from rapidly expanding meat supplies at
record levels will exist throughout 1995, and possibly intensify
next year from what appears to be rapidly expanding beef supplies.
Cattle Inventories Expand Through 1996
The size of the January 1, 1995 beef cow and replacement heifer
inventory suggest rapid expansion is underway. Beef production in
1995 is expected to rise 1-2 percent, but much larger production
may be in store for 1996. This increase, together with record
supplies of competing meats, could sharply reduce returns to cow-
calf producers next year.
In mid-January, USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service
released major revisions in the cattle inventory, reducing the
1989-93 inventory by 1.3 million to 2.5 million head each year.
The downward revisions and the relatively strong inventory
increases reported for January 1, 1994, and January 1, 1995,
suggest a quicker rate of expansion in the beef cow inventory than
had been anticipated.
With a total cow herd of 45.6 million head, and a larger number of
heifers likely to calve and enter the herd this year, the 1995 calf
crop could total 42.5-43 million head, the largest since 1983-84.
Feeder cattle supplies outside feedlots on January 1 were up 4
percent from a year earlier. Supplies would have been even larger
if imports from Mexico in second-half 1994 had not declined more
than 30 percent. Imports are expected to rise 10 to 15 percent in
1995 partially due to the peso devaluation.
Although cattle on feed on February 1 were down 4 percent, lighter
weight cattle probably made up all of the decline. Fed cattle
marketings in January were up 2 percent from a year earlier and
should remain higher for the remainder of the year. Fed cattle
prices likely have already seen their highs for the year and are
expected to trend lower into early spring. If feedlot marketings
remain current as prices trend lower this summer and second-half
pork supplies decline, cattle prices could strengthen to the upper
$60's per cwt again by late fall.
Hog Slaughter Remains on Track
Commercial barrow and gilt slaughter moved contraseasonally higher
in February to nearly 12 percent above a year earlier. Slaughter
during January fell below expectations based on the weight
breakouts in the December 1 market hog inventory, but the
additional marketings in February have trued up the December-
February slaughter against the June-August 1994 pig crop.
Above average moisture and sub-freezing temperatures during January
in the North Central region, likely made hog transport more
difficult and delayed deliveries of market-ready hogs. Further
evidence of delayed marketings showed up as increased dressed
weights, which averaged nearly 2 pounds above last year and 5
pounds above the previous 5-year average.
Despite the surge in slaughter, prices continued to advance during
early February to around $40 for live hogs, supported by seasonal
strength in the loin, butt, and rib cuts. Ham prices remain
depressed, pressured by record freezer stocks and ample fresh
product. Prices likely will advance from their current trading
range in the mid-$50's per cwt as retailers secure additional
inventory for Easter, but gains will be limited.
Sow slaughter also may have moved contraseasonally higher in
February after adjusting for slaughter days. For the December-
February quarter, sow slaughter, at just over 1 million head,
suggests a relatively strong rate of culling from breeding herds.
Broiler Prices Fall Below Last Year
Mid-February wholesale whole broiler prices advanced slightly from
January, due to increasing breast meat prices. Dark meat parts
prices remained relatively stable, suggesting continued large
export sales. Prices have increased less rapidly in 1995 than they
did last year because of larger production and potentially slower
export growth. Exports this year could exceed 3 billion pounds,
about 12 percent of production, if Russia continues as the largest
export market.
Industry profitability is holding near last year's level due to
lower feed costs. February production will increase 6-7 percent
based on 5-6 percent more chicks placed in December and weight
increases of about 1 percent per bird. Stronger placements in
January and a hatchery supply flock that remains well above the
same period in 1994 will boost production 6-7 percent in 1995.
Turkey Production Increasing Sharply
Turkey production in February will increase about 11 percent from
a year earlier, with about 9 percent more birds at 2-3 percent
heavier weights. First-quarter production will be up about 10
percent, the largest increase since 1990. Poults placed in January
for second-quarter production were up 7 percent.
Excellent returns to producers in the second half of 1994 have
fueled the strong expansion. However, returns in January and
February were only slightly above breakeven, despite the lowest
feed costs since 1987. Returns this year should remain about the
same as 1994, despite expected lower turkey prices.
February turkey prices are about unchanged from last year due to
low stocks. However, continued large production increases are
expected to drive down wholesale prices later this year.
Continued export growth in 1995 should absorb some of the
production increase. Shipments to South Korea, the Former Soviet
Union, and Poland should offset expected lower turkey exports to
Mexico.
Egg Production Increasing
Increased egg production is expected for February and the first
quarter of 1995. However, lower feed costs should keep egg
production profitable for the year. Overall profitability should
be 4-5 cents per dozen, compared with 3.9 in 1994.
Lower feed costs should keep egg production profitable during
February and March. If hen disposal continues at a low rate
substantial periods of losses will be realized after Easter.
International Dairy Markets Tighten
By the start of 1995, U.S. butter prices were competitive in
international markets. Commercial export sales have increased, and
although little confirmed information is available, unsubsidized
exports in 1995 are expected to reach 50 million pounds or higher.
International dairy markets reported fairly tight butter
inventories in early 1995. Milk production was lower in Oceania
and Eastern Europe, with both declines weather-related. The
European Union (EU) has had little additional product available for
export.
Meanwhile, international demand for butter has picked up. Russia
and other republics of the former Soviet Union have bought large
quantities at prices that far exceed last year's discounted prices.
Also, demand has grown in some countries that typically have not
imported.
Demand for nonfat dry milk also has been strong, particularly in
Central and South America and East Asia. Mexican imports are
uncertain, but food assistance for the needy likely will be
maintained near year earlier levels.
International butter prices in early 1995 were up about a third
from a year earlier, with nonfat dry milk prices up slightly less.
The price increases resulted from tighter international market
fundamentals and a weaker U.S. dollar. Prices also were bolstered
by the EU's quickness in reducing export refunds.
Seasonally rising milk production this spring should reduce butter
import demand in Eastern Europe, as well as make more butter
available from the EU. International butter prices are expected to
ease, but lower stocks could increase price volatility.
International prices for nonfat dry milk are projected to decline
slowly as supplies grow seasonally.
PRODUCTION INDICATORS
Jan-94 Nov-94 Dec-94 Jan-95
Cattle:
On feed - 7 States 9,370 8,629 8,914 8,865
Net placements 1,472 1,783 1,491 1,637
Marketings 1,610 1,498 1,540 1,636
Broilers:
Eggs in incubators(000) /1 509,863 494,511 537,926 534,462
Chicks hatched (000)/2 617,706 596,783 658,456 655,000
Hatching egg layers/1 46,316 47,839 48,255 49,218
Pullets placed (000) 5,989 5,819 6,413 NA
Hvy-type hen slaughter 4,089 4,898 4,856 4,800
Turkeys:
Eggs in incubators(000) /1 33,261 31,307 32,689 34,881
Poults placed (000) 25,358 24,579 25,540 27,025
Eggs:
Table egg prod. (mil. doz.) / 441 447 464 455
Table egg layers, (000)/1 241,305 245,207 247,537 246,866
Table eggs/100 layers/1 71.5 72.2 72.9 72.2
Chicks hatched (000) 32,816 25,432 28,575 32,000
Lt.-type hen slaughter 11,073 7,149 9,124 10,000
ESTIMATED RETURNS
Feb-94 Dec-94 Jan-95 Feb-95 /*
Great Plains cattle feedlot
Breakeven price /3 75.11 68.03 65.69 65.54
Selling price 73.03 69.35 73.60 73.70
Net margin -2.08 1.32 7.91 8.16
N. Central hog farrow to fini
Breakeven price /3 46.40 44.86 45.19 44.77
Selling price 48.25 32.14 37.96 40.00
Net margin 1.85 -12.72 -7.23 -4.77
Broiler
Wholesale cost 51.32 47.30 47.20 47.40
Wholesale price 55.22 50.93 51.11 51.60
Net margin 3.90 3.63 3.91 4.20
Turkey
Wholesale cost 64.59 59.90 59.00 58.80
Wholesale price 58.38 68.34 60.54 58.50
Net margin -6.21 8.44 1.54 -0.30
Egg
Wholesale cost 70.65 63.70 64.30 64.70
Wholesale price 73.55 77.08 72.64 71.00
Net margin 2.90 13.38 8.34 6.30
/1 First of month
/2 Last month estimated
/3 Includes capital replacement cost
/* estimate
LIVESTOCK PRICES
Feb-94 Dec-94 Jan-95 Feb-95 /*
Cattle prices $/cwt.
Steers, Choice, 11-13 cwt.
Texas Panhandle 73.03 69.35 73.60 73.70
Nebraska Direct 72.44 68.34 71.97 72.55
Cows - Sioux Falls
Utility breaking 47.53 37.95 40.26 42.15
Utility boning 44.06 36.30 38.79 40.45
Feeder Cattle - Oklahoma City
Steers: Med. #1
500-550 lb. 99.91 86.25 86.75 88.80
600-650 lb. 88.59 79.88 79.88 76.75
750-800 lb. 81.91 76.63 76.50 72.25
Heifers: Med. #1
450-500 lb. 90.50 79.54 79.31 77.80
700-750 lb. 79.31 73.79 73.50 69.50
Hog prices
Barrows and gilts
6 Markets 47.87 31.48 37.28 39.75
Iowa/S. Minn No. 1-3 48.25 32.14 37.96 40.00
Sows
6 Markets 39.57 20.58 26.61 30.75
Feeder pigs - No. 1&2
So. Mo. 40-50 lb. (per hd.) 45.63 18.63 27.74 30.00
Sheep & lamb prices
San Angelo TX
Slaughter lambs, Choice 62.31 67.50 65.38 73.00
Ewes, Good 44.56 43.25 35.60 45.00
Feeder lambs, Choice 77.69 74.38 75.60 78.00
GRAIN AND FEED PRICES
Feb-94 Dec-94 Jan-95 Feb-95 /*
$/bu
Corn, #2 Yellow, Cen. Ill 2.83 2.17 2.22 2.27
Wheat, HRW Ord., K.C. 3.80 4.21 4.00 3.92
$/ton
SBM, 48% Solvent, Decatur 198.37 156.90 156.40 152.20
Alfalfa Hay, U.S. Avg 94.70 92.60 92.10 NA
Grass Hay, U.S. Avg 65.40 64.70 66.80 NA
U.S. Pasture index NA NA NA NA
/* Estimates
WHOLESALE PRICES
Feb-94 Dec-94 Jan-95 Feb-95 /*
Beef, Central U.S. $/cwt
Boxed beef cutout
Choice 1-3 550-700# 112.23 107.22 112.17 111.05
Choice 1-3 700-850# 110.28 105.50 112.08 110.45
Select 1-3 700-850# 107.93 98.10 107.22 108.35
Cutter Cow 92.91 73.17 73.63 76.20
Bnls beef, 90% fresh 127.90 107.14 104.29 107.90
Imported Bnls beef, 90% frz 123.94 105.00 105.19 108.75
Hide & offal value 7.59 9.73 9.51 9.35
Vealers, Choice, 150-250# 83.21 86.00 80.50 80.00
Pork, Central U.S.
Pork Cutout, #2 64.43 51.66 53.72 56.45
Loins, 14-18 lb. 110.75 89.50 96.94 103.20
Bellies, 12-14 lb. 51.66 29.29 36.03 35.60
Hams, 17-20 lb. 67.60 50.74 46.40 54.00
Trimmings, 72% fresh 50.50 29.88 34.49 35.25
Lamb, East Coast
55 lb. down, Choice 140.75 154.25 147.50 149.00
55-65 lb., Choice 134.00 151.25 142.50 147.00
Broilers
12 City Avg. 55.22 50.93 51.11 51.60
Georgia dock 52.76 50.36 50.50 50.60
Northeast
Breast, boneless 186.09 156.47 156.77 159.00
Breast, Ribs on 91.76 72.34 72.74 81.00
Legs, whole 46.39 48.60 50.01 51.00
Leg quarters 34.60 31.22 32.24 33.00
Turkey
Eastern Region
Toms, 14-22 lb. 58.47 68.46 61.05 59.00
Hens, 8-16 lb. 59.32 70.35 60.71 59.00
Drumsticks 40.50 28.21 27.89 32.00
Wings, full cut 34.12 27.71 26.91 30.00
Eggs, grd A, lg, doz
12 City Metro 73.55 77.08 72.64 71.00
New York 72.13 69.26 65.20 64.00
/* Estimate
RETAIL PRICES & SPREADS
Jan-94 Nov-94 Dec-94 Jan-95
Retail prices Cents/lb.
Beef - Choice 286.8 280.2 279.4 282.6
Beef - All Fresh 269.3 262.2 262.8 262.0
Ground Beef 156.1 137.6 138.0 138.1
Rib roast 490.1 456.3 487.6 495.8
T-bone steak 578.9 585.4 586.3 579.7
Pork 201.2 195.0 188.4 191.4
Bacon 204.1 191.7 189.2 193.0
Chops 325.6 324.8 302.8 316.0
Picnic 115.5 110.5 113.4 109.9
Chicken - Composite 143.6 138.3 136.5 136.7
Whole, fresh 89.9 90.4 89.5 89.7
Breast - bone in 211.0 193.7 190.5 192.5
Leg quarter 111.7 113.4 112.3 111.2
Turkey; whole frozen 97.8 97.2 97.6 98.0
Eggs, Grade A, Large 91.7 85.7 87.3 88.2
Price indexes 1982-84=100
CPI - All 146.2 149.7 149.7 150.3
All food 143.7 145.3 146.8 147.5
All meat 136.1 134.6 133.7 134.9
Beef & veal 137.3 134.5 134.7 135.8
Pork 133.9 133.4 130.1 132.2
Poultry 140.5 140.2 140.4 140.2
Dairy Products 131.6 131.7 131.6 132.7
Fluid milk & cream 132.6 131.8 132.0 132.4
Manufactured products 131.2 132.2 131.8 133.5
Price Spreads Cents/lb.
Beef
Farm to wholesale 18.0 22.1 22.3 21.7
Wholesale to retail 114.4 116.4 115.1 110.9
Farmers share (%) 54.0 51.0 51.0 53.0
Pork
Farm to wholesale 36.7 42.6 38.2 32.1
Wholesale to retail 94.8 108.4 99.5 100.3
Farmers share (%) 35.0 23.0 27.0 31.0
Poultry and eggs
Retail to consumer
Broilers 29.0 31.1 30.6 30.6
Turkey 27.5 13.9 20.3 28.5
Eggs 21.3 14.2 12.2 15.6
MEAT STATISTICS
Jan. - Jan. -
Feb-94 Feb-95 Dec-94 Jan-95 /* Feb-95 /*
Commercial production Million pounds
Beef 3,743 3,832 2,020 2,009 1,823
Veal 45 51 26 27 24
Pork 2,651 2,996 1,642 1,500 1,496
Lamb 52 49 26 24 25
Total red meat 6,491 6,928 3,714 3,560 3,368
Broilers 3,645 3,905 1,971 2,025 1,880
Other chicken 82 80 42 41 39
Turkeys 690 770 397 390 380
Total poultry 4,417 4,755 2,411 2,456 2,299
Total meat & poultry 10,908 11,683 6,125 6,016 5,667
Commercial slaughter Thousand head
Cattle 5,301 5,456 2,871 2,869 2,587
Steers 2,701 2,746 1,453 1,434 1,312
Heifers 1,527 1,556 788 819 737
Beef Cows 464 513 309 280 233
Dairy Cows 516 540 271 284 256
Bulls and stags 93 101 50 52 49
Calves 198 230 124 124 106
Sheep 813 756 426 386 370
Hogs 14,415 15,902 8,786 8,092 7,810
Barrows & gilts 13,696 15,117 8,313 7,682 7,435
Sows 583 628 391 333 295
Broilers 1,080,080 1,150,000 578,460 595,000 555,000
Turkeys 38,223 42,200 21,727 21,200 21,000
Feb-94 Nov-94 Dec-94 Jan-95 /* Feb-95 /*
F.I. dressed weight Pounds
Cattle 711 711 711 707 707
Calves 229 219 217 224 228
Sheep 65 61 62 64 65
Hogs 185 189 188 186 186
Beginning cold storage stocks Million pounds
Beef 430.2 410.6 419.5 411.2 420.8
Pork 348.8 385.4 383.2 365.3 390.4
Bellies 56.0 22.7 40.7 61.1 62.2
Hams 45.5 99.9 63.9 33.4 39.7
Total chicken 387.0 444.6 451.7 472.1 454.5
Turkey 279.8 636.2 280.7 254.4 307.7
Frozen eggs 14.8 20.0 19.1 19.5 18.6
/* Estimates
U.S. LIVESTOCK & MEAT IMPORTS & EXPORTS
Nov-94 Dec-94 Jan - Jan -
Dec-93 Dec-94
Beef & Veal Imports Carcass wt.,thousand lb.
Australia 69,695 46,520 905,801 876,361
New Zealand 22,184 34,659 561,947 527,877
Canada 35,585 34,162 407,395 462,571
Brazil 1,615 3,807 109,802 125,782
Argentina 12,187 11,598 161,809 141,145
Central America 16,898 18,899 223,523 206,375
Other 2,674 3,234 31,053 30,615
Total 160,837 152,878 2,401,329 2,370,726
Beef & Veal Exports
Japan 70,400 65,233 719,769 832,429
Canada 27,525 31,426 243,549 285,716
Mexico 20,433 21,577 120,017 223,022
Korea, Rep. 20,264 19,753 116,162 177,286
Caribbean 1,109 1,765 12,425 11,400
Other 10,470 9,598 63,121 80,946
Total 150,201 149,353 1,275,042 1,610,800
Cattle Imports
Mexico 148,221 137,622 1,296,609 1,072,126
Canada 64,147 53,764 1,202,271 1,010,299
Over 700 lbs. 58,153 49,360 1,031,734 943,579
500-700 lbs. 1,838 996 92,900 13,649
Total 212,368 191,386 2,499,046 2,082,504
Cattle Exports
Mexico 10,560 9,890 76,854 128,636
Canada 13,063 9,220 67,530 92,365
Total 24,075 21,217 153,416 230,791
Lamb Imports
Australia 2,191 1,499 23,632 22,762
New Zealand 1,790 1,311 17,339 15,911
Total 3,982 2,810 40,978 38,683
Mutton Imports 548 481 11,855 10,723
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Customs Service
Monitoring - Import 2/19/94 2/18/95 % Chg
Meat Import Law 203,774 96,957 -52.4%
Canada 51,499 110,517 114.6%
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Nov-94 Dec-94 Jan - Jan -
Dec-93 Dec-94
Pork Imports Carcass wt., thousand lb.
Canada 34,462 33,387 402,275 421,768
Denmark 15,629 15,055 233,772 244,545
Poland 1,148 1,448 13,834 11,581
Hungary 996 1,013 29,933 18,210
Netherlands 1,171 1,299 22,771 16,769
Other 2,506 1,818 37,613 30,896
Total 55,913 54,019 740,197 743,769
Pork Exports
Japan 24,725 17,571 220,933 239,876
Canada 5,768 5,230 36,364 52,902
Mexico 15,562 16,454 92,986 150,252
Caribbean 1,599 1,158 8,669 8,351
Other 17,948 16,487 76,169 80,607
Total 65,602 56,899 435,121 531,988
Hog Imports Head
Canada 82,225 95,901 837,832 914,755
Under 110 lb 40,418 40,121 280,813 401,981
Total 82,405 96,743 840,050 921,274
Hog Exports
Total 28,166 34,461 40,636 136,148
Broiler Exports RTC, thousand lb.
Japan 32,949 15,671 228,155 254,490
Mexico 22,353 20,136 188,879 220,937
Hong Kong 71,338 86,204 481,713 714,378
Singapore 5,723 5,121 55,386 64,568
Canada 7,151 7,496 85,582 78,935
Former USSR 88,481 108,343 241,753 818,489
Total 284,225 312,936 1,965,733 2,875,509
Turkey Exports
Mexico 18,227 20,257 143,319 147,120
S. Korea 1,312 2,547 19,619 23,561
Hong Kong 651 724 6,773 6,902
Total 28,635 30,448 212,306 245,791
Shell thousand dz.
Egg Exports 8,806 7,766 100,563 110,415
MILK & DAIRY PRODUCTS
Jan-94 Nov-94 Dec-94 Jan-95
Milk production
Production - 21 States, Mil. lb 10,870 10,624 11,090 11,235
Milk cow number - 21 States, Thou 8,092 8,098 8,094 8,092
Milk per cow - 21 States, Lb 1,343 1,312 1,370 1,388
Production - U.S., Mil. lb 12,689 12,329 12,869 13,115
Milk prices: Dol./cwt
All milk 13.70 13.10 12.90 12.70
Milk for fluid use 13.70 13.10 12.90 12.70
Manuf. grade milk 12.30 12.00 11.50 11.40
Minn-Wisc (3.5% fat) 12.41 11.86 11.38 12.00
Wholesale prices: cents/lb
Grade A butter 64.0 71.5 67.0 64.0
Amer. cheese, Wisc. assembly pt.
40-pound blocks 132.2 127.9 121.3 124.5
Barrels 127.1 119.6
Nonfat dry milk, C. States, 109.8 107.1 106.9 106.7
International prices: $/metric ton
Butter 1,331 1,481 1,462 1,462
Nonfat dry milk 1,556 1,870 1,800 1,800
Beginning stocks: Mil. lb
Commercial butter 14.6 11.0 9.8 12.2
Commercial American cheese 356.6 312.2 309.3 309.5
Other cheese 107.0 135.2 124.5 126.8
Manufacturers nonfat dry milk 79.9 93.0 89.1 103.5
All commercial (mf. basis) 4,550 4,374 4,198 4,263
All commercial (ss. basis) 5,650 5,745 5,520 5,704
All Government (mf. basis) 5,020 2,549 1,664 1,497
All Government (ss. basis) 161 483 392 340
Dec-93 Oct-94 Nov-94 Dec-94
Dairy product output: Mil. lb
Butter 120.3 101.5 101.8 118.7
American cheese 246.3 243.1 240.1 255.5
Other-than-American cheese 312.6 330.8 320.9 321.6
Frozen products 1/, Mil. gal. 78.4 85.3 82.6
All products (mf basis 2/) 7,653 7,662 7,371 7,784
Nonfat dry milk 94.0 86.0 86.0 113
Commercial disappearance: Mil. l
Butter 102.5 108.2 92.5 96
American cheese 250.6 240.1 242.8 257
Other-than-American cheese 346.7 363.5 364.2 352
Nonfat dry milk 48.8 62.5 57.5 71
All products (mf. basis) 12,159 12,976 12,366 12,448
USDA net removals: Mil. lb
Butter 20.6 0.9 10.9 21
Cheese 0.2 1.8 1.9 0
Nonfat dry milk 20.7 28.3 32.4 27
All products (mf basis 2/) 468.0 68.0 282.0 489
All products (ss basis 2/) 258.0 373.0 417.0 347
Imports (mf basis 2/) 335 238 299 295
1/ Hard ice cream, ice milk, & sherbert
2/ Milk equivalent
Annual Forecasts
1992 1993 1994 1995
Economic Indicators /1
Real GDP, Billions '87$ 4,986 5,135 5,336 5,486
CPI-U, Annual % Change 3.1 2.7 2.8 3.3
Unemployment rate, % 7.4 6.8 6.1 5.8
3-Month T Bill,% 3.4 3.0 4.3 5.9
10-Year Bond,% 7.0 5.9 7.1 7.9
Production, million lb.
Beef 22,968 22,942 24,282 24,625
Pork 17,184 17,030 17,661 17,925
Broilers 21,052 22,178 23,837 25,400
Turkeys 4,829 4,848 4,992 5,290
Total Red Meat & Poultry 67,193 68,107 71,881 74,178
Eggs, mil doz. 5,905 6,003 6,177 6,275
Milk 151,648 150,954 154,178 158,168
Commercial use (mf basis) 142,081 145,350 150,754 154,850
Net removals (mf basis) 9,936 6,653 4,824 4,422
Per capita consumption, Retail
Beef 66.5 65.1 67.6 68.4
Pork 53.1 52.3 53.1 53.8
Broilers 66.6 68.3 69.9 73.8
Turkeys 18.0 17.8 18.1 18.7
Total Red Meat & Poultry 208.4 207.6 212.5 218.0
Eggs, number 235.8 236.2 238.5 239.4
Market Prices
Choice steers, Neb., $/cwt. 75.36 76.36 68.8375 65-70
Feeder steers,Ok City,$/cwt. 81.76 86.46 77.72 71-77
Brk Ut Cows,S. Falls,$/cwt. 44.84 47.52 42.5025 38-41
Barrows & gilts,Ia/Mn.,$/cwt 43.03 46.10 40.0575 37-40
Broilers, 12 City, cents/lb. 52.60 55.18 55.6875 51-55
Turkeys, Eastern, cents/lb. 60.20 62.55 65.65 59-63
Eggs, New York, cents/doz. 65.40 72.53 67.25 64-68
Milk, all at plant, $/cwt. 13.09 12.83 13.0325 11.9-12.7
Milk, M-W, $/cwt. 11.88 11.80 12.005 10.8-11.6
U.S. Trade, million lb.
Beef & veal exports 1,324 1,275 1,581 1,735
Beef & veal imports 2,440 2,401 2,387 2,485
Pork exports 407 435 540 495
Pork imports 645 740 744 730
Broiler exports 1,489 1,966 2,845 3,050
Turkey exports 171 212 235 250
/1 Macro economic forecasts: Survey of Professional Forecasters
Philadelphia Federal Reserve, August 1994
Quarterly 1994/95 Forecasts
QI'94 QII'94 QIII'94 QIV'94
Economic Indicators /1
Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 5,261 5,314 5,367 5,402
CPI-U, Ann. % Change 2.5 2.4 2.7 3.2
Unemployment rate, % 6.6 6.1 6.0 5.8
3-Month T Bill,% 3.3 4.0 4.5 5.2
10-Year Bond,% 6.1 7.1 7.3 7.9
Production, million lb.
Beef 5,744 6,044 6,378 6,116
Pork 4,182 4,240 4,326 4,913
Broilers 5,674 5,983 6,160 6,020
Turkeys 1,091 1,254 1,337 1,310
Total Meat 16,974 17,802 18,469 18,636
Eggs, mil doz. 1,509 1,521 1,550 1,597
Milk (mf basis) 37,692 39,973 38,398 38,115
Commercial use 35,292 37,681 39,657 38,124
Net removals 2,360 1,855 (240) 849
Consumption, Retail lb
Beef 16.4 17.0 17.5 16.7
Pork 12.5 12.9 13.2 14.5
Broilers 17.1 17.6 18.2 17.0
Turkeys 3.6 3.8 4.5 6.2
Total Meat 50.5 52.2 54.2 55.6
Eggs, number 58.8 58.6 59.6 61.5
Market Prices
Ch. steers,Nebr. 73.10 68.79 66 68
Fdr steer,Ok Cty 82.14 77.63 76 75
Brk Cows,S. Falls 44.40 46.16 43 37
Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 45.80 42.90 41 31
Broiler,12 City 55.05 60.00 56 52
Turkeys, Eastern 60.10 63.10 67 73
Eggs, New York 71.50 63.30 67 67
Milk, all at plant 13.57 13.03 13 13
Milk, M-W 12.53 11.92 12 12
U.S. Trade, million lb.
Beef/veal exports 359 391 416 415
Beef/veal imports 682 603 587 515
Pork exports 104 115 131 190
Pork imports 205 206 168 165
Broiler exports 571 698 694 882
Turkey exports 52 60 54 69
/1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters,
Philadelphia Federal Reserve, August 1994
QI'95 QII'95 QIII'95 QIV'95
Economic Indicators /1
Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 5,439 5,471 5,505 5,538
CPI-U, Ann. % Change 3.5 3.3 3.4 3.5
Unemployment rate, % 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.7
3-Month T Bill,% 5.7 6.0 6.0 5.9
10-Year Bond,% 8.1 8.0 7.9 7.7
Production, million lb.
Beef 5,975 6,100 6,400 6,150
Pork 4,475 4,325 4,425 4,700
Broilers 6,150 6,350 6,500 6,400
Turkeys 1,200 1,315 1,395 1,380
Total Meat 18,074 18,371 18,911 18,822
Eggs, mil doz. 1,560 1,565 1,560 1,590
Milk (mf basis) 39,072 41,045 39,278 38,773
Commercial use 36,125 39,125 40,200 39,400
Net removals 2,455 1,297 25 645
Consumption, Retail lb
Beef 17.0 17.1 17.6 16.7
Pork 13.4 13.1 13.3 14.0
Broilers 18.2 18.5 19.0 18.1
Turkeys 3.8 3.9 4.4 6.6
Total Meat 53.4 53.5 55.1 56.0
Eggs, number 60.1 59.3 59.2 60.8
Market Prices
Ch. steers,Nebr. 68-70 66-70 63-69 65-71
Fdr steer,Ok Cty 73-75 70-76 72-78 71-77
Brk Cows,S. Falls 37-39 39-41 38-42 37-41
Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 36-38 37-39 38-42 36-40
Broiler,12 City 51-53 51-55 52-56 50-54
Turkeys, Eastern 57-59 57-61 60-64 63-69
Eggs, New York 66-68 59-63 63-69 66-72
Milk, all at plant 12.6-12.8 11.6-12.3 11.4-12.4 12.3-13.3
Milk, M-W 11.6-11.8 10.1-10.8 10.7-11.7 11.2-12.2
U.S. Trade, million lb.
Beef/veal exports 405 435 450 445
Beef/veal imports 690 655 630 510
Pork exports 130 125 110 130
Pork imports 180 190 180 180
Broiler exports 675 745 730 900
Turkey exports 52 64 59 75
/1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters,
Philadelphia Federal Reserve, August 1994