Mt An 2 (7-07) Cattle National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released July 20, 2007, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Cattle" call Mike Miller at 202-720-3040, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. July 1 Cattle Inventory Down Slightly All cattle and calves in the United States as of July 1, 2007, totaled 104.8 million head, slightly below the 105.2 million on July 1, 2006 but 1 percent above the 104.2 million two years ago. All cows and heifers that have calved, at 42.5 million, were down slightly from the 42.6 million on July 1, 2006 but unchanged from two years ago. Beef cows, at 33.4 million, were down slightly from July 1, 2006 and July 1, 2005. Milk cows, at 9.15 million, were unchanged from July 1, 2006 but up 1 percent from two years ago. Other class estimates on July 1, 2007 and the changes from July 1, 2006, are as follows: All heifers 500 pounds and over, 16.6 million, unchanged. Beef replacement heifers, 4.7 million, down 6 percent. Milk replacement heifers, 3.9 million, up 3 percent. Other heifers, 8.0 million, up 3 percent. Steers weighing 500 pounds and over, 14.9 million, down 1 percent. Bulls weighing 500 pounds and over, 2.1 million, unchanged. Calves under 500 pounds, 28.7 million, down 1 percent. All cattle and calves on feed for slaughter, 12.3 million, down 2 percent. Calf Crop Down Slightly The 2007 calf crop is expected to be 37.4 million, down slightly from 2006 and 2005. Calves born during the first half of the year are estimated at 27.2 million, down 1 percent from 2006 and 2005. This report was approved on July 20, 2007. Acting Secretary of Agriculture Charles F. Conner Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Carol C. House Cattle and Calves: Number by Class and Calf Crop, United States, July 1, 2005-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : 2007 as Class : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 : % of 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------- 1,000 Head ------- Percent : Cattle and Calves : 104,200 105,200 104,800 100 : Cows and Heifers That Have Calved : 42,500 42,600 42,500 100 Beef Cows : 33,450 33,450 33,350 100 Milk Cows : 9,050 9,150 9,150 100 : Heifers 500 Pounds and Over : 16,200 16,600 16,600 100 For Beef Cow Replacement : 5,000 5,000 4,700 94 For Milk Cow Replacement : 3,700 3,800 3,900 103 Other Heifers : 7,500 7,800 8,000 103 : Steers 500 Pounds and Over : 14,500 15,000 14,900 99 Bulls 500 Pounds and Over : 2,100 2,100 2,100 100 Calves Under 500 Pounds : 28,900 28,900 28,700 99 : Calf Crop : 37,575 37,567 37,400 100 : Cattle on Feed : 12,000 12,500 12,300 98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Calf Crop: Number and Percent of Total by Six-Month Period, United States, 2005-2006 and Preliminary Calf Crop, 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 :----------------------------------------------------------- Period : : % of : : % of : : % of : Number : Total : Number : Total : Number : Total -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Hd Percent 1,000 Hd Percent 1,000 Hd Percent : Jan 1 - Jun 30 : 27,300 72.7 27,350 72.8 27,150 72.6 Jul 1 - Dec 31 : 10,275 27.3 10,217 27.2 10,250 27.4 : Total : 37,575 100.0 37,567 100.0 37,400 100.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Reliability of July 1 Cattle and Calves Estimates Survey Procedures: A random sample of U.S. producers was surveyed to provide data for these estimates. Survey procedures ensured that all cattle producers, regardless of size, had a chance to be included in the survey. Data were collected during the first half of June from about 40,000 small and medium sized operations. These operators were contacted by face-to-face personal interviews. About 10,000 large producers and feedlots were contacted during the first half of July by mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews. Operators were asked to report inventories as of the first of the month and calf crop for the entire year of 2007. Estimating Procedures: These cattle estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing National and State indications and analysis. National and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous year using a balance sheet. The balance sheet begins with the previous inventory estimate, adds to it estimates of births and imports for the first six months, and subtracts estimates of slaughter, exports, and deaths for the first six months of the current year. This indicated ending inventory level is compared to the Agricultural Statistics Board estimate for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve year to year and item to item relationships. Estimates for the previous year are subject to revision when current estimates are made and when the January 1 cattle inventory estimates are made. The reviews are primarily based on livestock slaughter and additional foreign trade and survey data. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date. Reliability: Since all cattle operators are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle inventory estimates over the past 20 years is 0.5 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 104.8 million head by more than 0.5 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.9 percent. The table below also shows a 20 year record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of all cattle and calves as an example, changes between the first inventory estimate and the latest estimate during the past 20 years have averaged 400,000 head, ranging from 0 to 1,300,000 head. During this period the initial inventory estimate has been below the latest estimate 4 times, above the latest estimate 13 times, and unchanged 3 times. This does not imply that the July 1 estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of July 1 Cattle Estimates 1/ 2/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90 Percent : Difference Between : : : Confidence : First and Latest : Number of : Root : Level : Estimates : Years Item : Mean :------------------------------------------------------------- :Square : : : : : : First : First : Error :Percent: Head :Average :Smallest:Largest : Above : Below : : : : : : : Latest : Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ---------- 1,000 Head --------- Number : All Cattle: 0.5 0.9 921 400 0 1,300 13 4 : All Cows : 0.9 1.5 643 240 0 1,100 10 5 : Calf Crop : 1.5 2.6 980 460 23 1,236 15 5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on data from July 1987 through July 2006. 2/ Data in the above table do not reflect the 1-3 percent changes made during the 1989-93 historic revision period. The root mean square error's would be about 1 percentage point higher if these were included. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch............................(202) 720-3570 Shawn Clark, Head, Livestock Section.............................(202) 720-3570 Bruce Boess - Hogs and Pigs.................................(202) 720-3106 Shawn Clark - Dairy Products................................(202) 690-3236 Jason Hardegree - Milk Production and Milk Cows.............(202) 720-3278 Scott Hollis - Sheep & Lambs, Goats & Kids..................(202) 720-4751 Mike Miller - Cattle, Cattle on Feed........................(202) 720-3040 Benita Hodge - Livestock Slaughter..........................(515) 284-4340 Charmaine Wilson - Dairy Products Prices....................(202) 690-2168 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! 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