Mt An 2 (7-02) Cattle National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released July 19, 2002, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Cattle" call Steve Anderson at 202-720-3040, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. July 1 Cattle Inventory Down 1 Percent All cattle and calves in the United States as of July 1, 2002, totaled 105.2 million head, 1 percent below the 105.8 million on July 1, 2001 and 1 percent below the 106.3 million two years ago. All cows and heifers that have calved, at 42.9 million, were slightly below the 43.0 million on July 1, 2001 and 1 percent below the 43.2 million two years ago. Beef cows, at 33.8 million, were down slightly from July 1, 2001 and 1 percent below two years ago. Milk cows, at 9.15 million, were up 1 percent from July 1, 2001 but were down 1 percent from two years ago. Other class estimates on July 1, 2002 and the changes from July 1, 2001, are as follows: All heifers 500 pounds and over, 16.2 million, down 1 percent. Beef replacement heifers, 4.6 million, unchanged. Milk replacement heifers, 3.7 million, up 3 percent. Other heifers, 7.9 million, down 4 percent. Steers weighing 500 pounds and over, 14.5 million, down 1 percent. Bulls weighing 500 pounds and over, 2.1 million, unchanged. Calves under 500 pounds, 29.5 million, down 1 percent. All cattle and calves on feed for slaughter, 12.4 million, down 5 percent. Calf Crop Up Slightly The 2002 calf crop is expected to be 38.4 million, up slightly from 2001 but down 1 percent from 2000. Calves born during the first half of the year are estimated at 28.0 million, down slightly from 2001 and down 1 percent from 2000. This report was approved on July 19, 2002. Acting Secretary of Agriculture Keith J. Collins Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Frederic A. Vogel Cattle and Calves: Number by Class and Calf Crop, United States, July 1, 2000-2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : 2002 as Class : 2000 : 2001 : 2002 : % of 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------- 1,000 Head ------- Percent : Cattle and Calves : 106,300 105,800 105,200 99 : Cows and Heifers That Have Calved : 43,200 43,000 42,900 100 Beef Cows : 33,950 33,900 33,750 100 Milk Cows : 9,250 9,100 9,150 101 : Heifers 500 Pounds and Over : 16,500 16,400 16,200 99 For Beef Cow Replacement : 4,700 4,600 4,600 100 For Milk Cow Replacement : 3,700 3,600 3,700 103 Other Heifers : 8,100 8,200 7,900 96 : Steers 500 Pounds and Over : 14,300 14,600 14,500 99 Bulls 500 Pounds and Over : 2,100 2,100 2,100 100 Calves Under 500 Pounds : 30,200 29,700 29,500 99 : Calf Crop : 38,631 38,280 38,400 100 : Cattle on Feed : 12,300 13,000 12,400 95 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Calf Crop: Number and Percent of Total by Six-Month Period, United States, 2000-2001 and Preliminary Calf Crop, 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2000 : 2001 : 2002 :----------------------------------------------------------- Period : : % of : : % of : : % of : Number : Total : Number : Total : Number : Total -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Hd Percent 1,000 Hd Percent 1,000 Hd Percent : Jan 1 - Jun 30 : 28,400 73.5 28,100 73.4 28,000 72.9 Jul 1 - Dec 31 : 10,231 26.5 10,180 26.6 10,400 27.1 : Total : 38,631 100.0 38,280 100.0 38,400 100.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle and Calves: Balance Sheet, United States, January 1 - June 30, 2000-2002 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Item : 2000 : 2001 : 2002 : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Head : January 1 Inventory : 98.2 97.3 96.7 Calf Crop and Imports : 29.5 29.4 29.3 : Total Supply 2/ : 127.7 126.7 126.0 : Slaughter : 18.9 18.1 18.1 Deaths and Exports : 2.6 2.7 2.5 : Total Disappearance 2/ : 21.5 20.8 20.7 : Residual 2/ : 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 : July 1 Inventory : 106.3 105.8 105.2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Preliminary. 2/ Totals may not add due to rounding. Cattle and Calves: Number by Class, State, and United States, July 1, 2001-2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : All Cattle and Calves : All Cows That Have Calved :----------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : 2002 as : : : 2002 as : 2001 : 2002 : % of 2001 : 2001 : 2002 : % of 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Head --- Percent --- 1,000 Head --- Percent : CA : 5,200 5,200 100 2,360 2,400 102 CO : 3,300 3,100 94 930 880 95 IA : 3,850 4,000 104 1,220 1,240 102 KS : 6,900 6,550 95 1,730 1,650 95 MO : 4,650 4,650 100 2,200 2,180 99 MT : 3,500 3,350 96 1,570 1,480 94 NE : 7,250 7,050 97 2,100 2,030 97 OK : 5,400 5,600 104 2,050 2,100 102 SD : 5,100 5,000 98 2,050 2,020 99 TX : 15,000 15,000 100 6,000 6,100 102 WI : 3,600 3,550 99 1,540 1,520 99 : Oth Sts : 42,050 42,150 100 19,250 19,300 100 : US : 105,800 105,200 99 43,000 42,900 100 :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : Beef Cows That Have Calved : Milk Cows That Have Calved :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : --- 1,000 Head --- Percent --- 1,000 Head -- Percent CA : 770 750 97 1,590 1,650 104 CO : 838 776 93 92 104 113 IA : 1,010 1,030 102 210 210 100 KS : 1,640 1,547 94 90 103 114 MO : 2,053 2,043 100 147 137 93 MT : 1,551 1,462 94 19 18 95 NE : 2,029 1,963 97 71 67 94 OK : 1,961 2,012 103 89 88 99 SD : 1,951 1,923 99 99 97 98 TX : 5,675 5,795 102 325 305 94 WI : 250 250 100 1,290 1,270 98 : Oth Sts : 14,172 14,199 100 5,078 5,101 100 : US : 33,900 33,750 100 9,100 9,150 101 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Calf Crop: Number by State and United States, 2001-2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : 2002 as State : 2001 : 2002 1/ : % 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 Head --------- Percent : CA : 1,990 2,040 103 CO : 840 830 99 IA : 1,120 1,140 102 KS : 1,480 1,400 95 MO : 2,060 2,030 99 MT : 1,550 1,490 96 NE : 1,820 1,760 97 OK : 1,890 1,910 101 SD : 1,850 1,900 103 TX : 5,050 5,200 103 WI : 1,360 1,350 99 : Oth Sts : 17,270 17,350 100 : US : 38,280 38,400 100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Preliminary. Reliability of July 1 Cattle and Calves Estimates Survey Procedures: A random sample of U.S. producers was surveyed to provide data for these estimates. Survey procedures ensured that all cattle producers, regardless of size, had a chance to be included in the survey. Data were collected during the first half of June from about 40,000 small and medium sized operations. These operators were contacted by face-to-face personal interviews. About 9,700 large producers and feedlots were contacted during the first half of July by mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews. Operators were asked to report inventories as of the first of the month and calf crop for the entire year of 2002. Estimating Procedures: These cattle estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing National and State indications and analysis. National and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous year using a balance sheet. The balance sheet begins with the previous inventory estimate, adds to it estimates of births and imports for the first six months, and subtracts estimates of slaughter, exports, and deaths for the first six months of the current year. This indicated ending inventory level is compared to the Agricultural Statistics Board estimate for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve year to year and item to item relationships. Estimates for the previous year are subject to revision when current estimates are made and when the January 1 cattle inventory estimates are made. The reviews are primarily based on livestock slaughter and additional foreign trade and survey data. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date. Reliability: Since all cattle operators are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle inventory estimates over the past 20 years is 0.5 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 105.2 million head by more than 0.5 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.9 percent. The table below also shows a 20 year record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of all cattle and calves as an example, changes between the first inventory estimate and the latest estimate during the past 20 years have averaged 417,000 head, ranging from 0 to 1,300,000 head. During this period the initial inventory estimate has been below the latest estimate 5 times, above the latest estimate 10 times, and unchanged 5 times. This does not imply that the July 1 estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of July 1 Cattle Estimates 1/ 2/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90 Percent : Difference Between : : : Confidence : First and Latest : Number of : Root : Level : Estimates : Years Item : Mean :------------------------------------------------------------- :Square : : : : : : First : First : Error :Percent: Head :Average :Smallest:Largest : Above : Below : : : : : : : Latest : Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ---------- 1,000 Head ---------- Number : All Cattle: 0.5 0.9 967 417 0 1,300 10 5 : All Cows : 0.9 1.5 651 243 0 1,100 8 6 : Calf Crop : 1.7 3.0 1,135 592 23 1,236 14 6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on data from July 1982 through July 2001. 2/ Data in the above table do not reflect the 1-3 percent changes made during the 1989-93 historic revision period. The root mean square error's would be about 1 percentage point higher if these were included. The next "Cattle" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on January 31, 2003. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, gender, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation, and marital or family status. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA's TARGET Center at 202-720-2600 (voice and TDD). To file a complaint of discrimination, write USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, Room 326-W, Whitten Building, 1400 Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, D.C., 20250-9410, or call 202-720-5964 (voice or TDD). USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer. ACCESS TO REPORTS!! 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