Mt An 2 (7-03) Cattle National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released July 18, 2003, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Cattle" call Steve Anderson at 202-720-3040, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. July 1 Cattle Inventory Down 1 Percent All cattle and calves in the United States as of July 1, 2003, totaled 103.9 million head, 1 percent below the 105.1 million on July 1, 2002 and 2 percent below the 105.8 million two years ago. All cows and heifers that have calved, at 42.7 million, were slightly below the 42.9 million on July 1, 2002 and 1 percent below the 43.0 million two years ago. Beef cows, at 33.6 million, were down slightly from July 1, 2002 and 1 percent below two years ago. Milk cows, at 9.1 million, were down 1 percent from July 1, 2002 but were unchanged from two years ago. Other class estimates on July 1, 2003 and the changes from July 1, 2002, are as follows: All heifers 500 pounds and over, 15.9 million, down 2 percent. Beef replacement heifers, 4.6 million, unchanged. Milk replacement heifers, 3.6 million, down 3 percent. Other heifers, 7.7 million, down 3 percent. Steers weighing 500 pounds and over, 14.2 million, down 2 percent. Bulls weighing 500 pounds and over, 2.1 million, unchanged. Calves under 500 pounds, 29.0 million, down 1 percent. All cattle and calves on feed for slaughter, 11.7 million, down 6 percent. Calf Crop Down 1 Percent The 2003 calf crop is expected to be 38.0 million, down 1 percent from 2002 and down 1 percent from 2001. Calves born during the first half of the year are estimated at 27.7 million, down 1 percent from 2002 and down 1 percent from 2001. This report was approved on July 18, 2003. Acting Secretary of Agriculture James R. Moseley Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Rich Allen Cattle and Calves: Number by Class and Calf Crop, United States, July 1, 2001-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : 2003 as Class : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 : % of 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------- 1,000 Head ------- Percent : Cattle and Calves : 105,800 105,100 103,900 99 : Cows and Heifers That Have Calved : 43,000 42,900 42,700 100 Beef Cows : 33,900 33,750 33,600 100 Milk Cows : 9,100 9,150 9,100 99 : Heifers 500 Pounds and Over : 16,400 16,200 15,900 98 For Beef Cow Replacement : 4,600 4,600 4,600 100 For Milk Cow Replacement : 3,600 3,700 3,600 97 Other Heifers : 8,200 7,900 7,700 97 : Steers 500 Pounds and Over : 14,600 14,500 14,200 98 Bulls 500 Pounds and Over : 2,100 2,100 2,100 100 Calves Under 500 Pounds : 29,700 29,400 29,000 99 : Calf Crop : 38,280 38,193 38,000 99 : Cattle on Feed : 13,000 12,400 11,700 94 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Calf Crop: Number and Percent of Total by Six-Month Period, United States, 2001-2002 and Preliminary Calf Crop, 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 :----------------------------------------------------------- Period : : % of : : % of : : % of : Number : Total : Number : Total : Number : Total -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Hd Percent 1,000 Hd Percent 1,000 Hd Percent : Jan 1 - Jun 30 : 28,100 73.4 27,900 73.0 27,700 72.9 Jul 1 - Dec 31 : 10,180 26.6 10,293 27.0 10,300 27.1 : Total : 38,280 100.0 38,193 100.0 38,000 100.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle and Calves: Balance Sheet, United States, January 1 - June 30, 2001-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Item : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Head : January 1 Inventory : 97.3 96.7 96.1 Calf Crop and Imports : 29.4 29.1 28.6 : Total Supply 2/ : 126.7 125.8 124.7 : Slaughter : 18.1 18.1 18.4 Deaths and Exports : 2.7 2.5 2.5 : Total Disappearance 2/ : 20.8 20.7 20.9 : Residual 2/ : -0.1 0.0 0.1 : July 1 Inventory : 105.8 105.1 103.9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Preliminary. 2/ Totals may not add due to rounding. Cattle and Calves: Number by Class, State, and United States, July 1, 2002-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : All Cattle and Calves : All Cows That Have Calved :----------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : 2003 as : : : 2003 as : 2002 : 2003 : % of 2002 : 2002 : 2003 : % of 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Head --- Percent --- 1,000 Head --- Percent : CA : 5,200 5,150 99 2,400 2,390 100 CO : 3,050 2,750 90 880 810 92 IA : 4,000 3,900 98 1,240 1,240 100 KS : 6,550 6,600 101 1,650 1,670 101 MO : 4,650 4,600 99 2,180 2,150 99 MT : 3,350 3,400 101 1,480 1,500 101 NE : 7,050 6,600 94 2,030 1,950 96 OK : 5,600 5,600 100 2,100 2,100 100 SD : 5,000 4,850 97 2,020 1,980 98 TX : 15,000 15,500 103 6,100 6,200 102 WI : 3,550 3,550 100 1,510 1,510 100 : Oth Sts : 42,100 41,400 98 19,310 19,200 99 : US : 105,100 103,900 99 42,900 42,700 100 :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : Beef Cows That Have Calved : Milk Cows That Have Calved :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : --- 1,000 Head --- Percent --- 1,000 Head -- Percent CA : 750 700 93 1,650 1,690 102 CO : 776 710 91 104 100 96 IA : 1,030 1,040 101 210 200 95 KS : 1,547 1,568 101 103 102 99 MO : 2,043 2,020 99 137 130 95 MT : 1,462 1,482 101 18 18 100 NE : 1,963 1,886 96 67 64 96 OK : 2,012 2,014 100 88 86 98 SD : 1,923 1,890 98 97 90 93 TX : 5,795 5,888 102 305 312 102 WI : 245 255 104 1,265 1,255 99 : Oth Sts : 14,204 14,147 100 5,106 5,053 99 : US : 33,750 33,600 100 9,150 9,100 99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Calf Crop: Number by State and United States, 2002-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : 2003 as State : 2002 : 2003 1/ : % 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 Head --------- Percent : CA : 2,040 2,030 100 CO : 820 740 90 IA : 1,110 1,120 101 KS : 1,510 1,520 101 MO : 2,090 2,100 100 MT : 1,490 1,500 101 NE : 1,820 1,760 97 OK : 1,930 2,000 104 SD : 1,840 1,760 96 TX : 5,000 5,200 104 WI : 1,350 1,350 100 : Oth Sts : 17,193 16,920 98 : US : 38,193 38,000 99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Preliminary. Reliability of July 1 Cattle and Calves Estimates Survey Procedures: A random sample of U.S. producers was surveyed to provide data for these estimates. Survey procedures ensured that all cattle producers, regardless of size, had a chance to be included in the survey. Data were collected during the first half of June from about 40,000 small and medium sized operations. These operators were contacted by face-to-face personal interviews. About 9,700 large producers and feedlots were contacted during the first half of July by mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews. Operators were asked to report inventories as of the first of the month and calf crop for the entire year of 2003. Estimating Procedures: These cattle estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing National and State indications and analysis. National and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous year using a balance sheet. The balance sheet begins with the previous inventory estimate, adds to it estimates of births and imports for the first six months, and subtracts estimates of slaughter, exports, and deaths for the first six months of the current year. This indicated ending inventory level is compared to the Agricultural Statistics Board estimate for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve year to year and item to item relationships. Estimates for the previous year are subject to revision when current estimates are made and when the January 1 cattle inventory estimates are made. The reviews are primarily based on livestock slaughter and additional foreign trade and survey data. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date. Reliability: Since all cattle operators are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle inventory estimates over the past 20 years is 0.5 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 103.9 million head by more than 0.5 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.9 percent. The table below also shows a 20 year record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of all cattle and calves as an example, changes between the first inventory estimate and the latest estimate during the past 20 years have averaged 397,000 head, ranging from 0 to 1,300,000 head. During this period the initial inventory estimate has been below the latest estimate 4 times, above the latest estimate 11 times, and unchanged 5 times. This does not imply that the July 1 estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of July 1 Cattle Estimates 1/ 2/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90 Percent : Difference Between : : : Confidence : First and Latest : Number of : Root : Level : Estimates : Years Item : Mean :------------------------------------------------------------- :Square : : : : : : First : First : Error :Percent: Head :Average :Smallest:Largest : Above : Below : : : : : : : Latest : Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ---------- 1,000 Head ---------- Number : All Cattle: 0.5 0.9 944 397 0 1,300 11 4 : All Cows : 0.9 1.5 630 217 0 1,100 8 5 : Calf Crop : 1.6 2.8 1,077 537 23 1,236 14 6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on data from July 1983 through July 2002. 2/ Data in the above table do not reflect the 1-3 percent changes made during the 1989-93 historic revision period. The root mean square error's would be about 1 percentage point higher if these were included. The next "Cattle" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on January 30, 2004. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, gender, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation, and marital or family status. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA's TARGET Center at 202-720-2600 (voice and TDD). To file a complaint of discrimination, write USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, Room 326-W, Whitten Building, 1400 Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, D.C., 20250-9410, or call 202-720-5964 (voice or TDD). USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer. ACCESS TO REPORTS!! 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