Mt An 2 (7-04) Cattle National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released July 23, 2004, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on Cattle call Mike Miller at 202-720-3040, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. July 1 Cattle Inventory Down Slightly All cattle and calves in the United States as of July 1, 2004, totaled 103.6 million head, down slightly from the 103.9 million on July 1, 2003 and 1 percent below the 105.1 million two years ago. All cows and heifers that have calved, at 42.5 million, were slightly below the 42.7 million on July 1, 2003 and 1 percent below the 42.9 million two years ago. Beef cows, at 33.5 million, were down slightly from July 1, 2003 and 1 percent below two years ago. Milk cows, at 9.0 million, were down 1 percent from July 1, 2003 and down 2 percent from two years ago. Other class estimates on July 1, 2004 and the changes from July 1, 2003, are as follows: All heifers 500 pounds and over, 15.95 million, up slightly. Beef replacement heifers, 4.8 million, up 4 percent. Milk replacement heifers, 3.6 million, unchanged. Other heifers, 7.55 million, down 2 percent. Steers weighing 500 pounds and over, 14.2 million, unchanged. Bulls weighing 500 pounds and over, 2.05 million, down 2 percent. Calves under 500 pounds, 28.9 million, down slightly. All cattle and calves on feed for slaughter, 11.8 million, down slightly. Calf Crop Down 1 Percent The 2004 calf crop is expected to be 37.7 million, down 1 percent from both 2003 and 2002. Calves born during the first half of the year are estimated at 27.5 million, down 1 percent from both 2003 and 2002. This report was approved on July 23, 2004. Acting Secretary of Agriculture Joseph J. Jen Agricultural Statistics Board Acting Chairperson Steven D. Wiyatt Cattle and Calves: Number by Class and Calf Crop, United States, July 1, 2002-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : 2004 as Class : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 : % of 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------- 1,000 Head ------- Percent : Cattle and Calves : 105,100 103,900 103,600 100 : Cows and Heifers That Have Calved : 42,900 42,700 42,500 100 Beef Cows : 33,750 33,600 33,500 100 Milk Cows : 9,150 9,100 9,000 99 : Heifers 500 Pounds and Over : 16,200 15,900 15,950 100 For Beef Cow Replacement : 4,600 4,600 4,800 104 For Milk Cow Replacement : 3,700 3,600 3,600 100 Other Heifers : 7,900 7,700 7,550 98 : Steers 500 Pounds and Over : 14,500 14,200 14,200 100 Bulls 500 Pounds and Over : 2,100 2,100 2,050 98 Calves Under 500 Pounds : 29,400 29,000 28,900 100 : Calf Crop : 38,224 37,903 37,700 99 : Cattle on Feed : 12,500 11,810 11,800 100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Calf Crop: Number and Percent of Total by Six-Month Period, United States, 2002-2003 and Preliminary Calf Crop, 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 :----------------------------------------------------------- Period : : % of : : % of : : % of : Number : Total : Number : Total : Number : Total -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Hd Percent 1,000 Hd Percent 1,000 Hd Percent : Jan 1 - Jun 30 : 27,900 73.0 27,700 73.1 27,500 72.9 Jul 1 - Dec 31 : 10,324 27.0 10,203 26.9 10,200 27.1 : Total : 38,224 100.0 37,903 100.0 37,700 100.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle and Calves: Balance Sheet, United States, January 1 - June 30, 2002-2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Item : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Head : January 1 Inventory : 96.7 96.1 94.9 Calf Crop and Imports : 29.1 28.7 28.1 : Total Supply 2/ : 125.8 124.8 123.0 : Slaughter : 18.1 18.4 16.9 Deaths and Exports : 2.5 2.4 2.4 : Total Disappearance 2/ : 20.7 20.9 19.3 : Residual 2/ : 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 : July 1 Inventory : 105.1 103.9 103.6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Preliminary. 2/ Totals may not add due to rounding. Cattle and Calves: Number by Class, State, and United States, July 1, 2003-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : All Cattle and Calves : All Cows That Have Calved :----------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : 2004 as : : : 2004 as : 2003 : 2004 : % of 2003 : 2003 : 2004 : % of 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Head --- Percent --- 1,000 Head --- Percent : CA : 5,150 5,150 100 2,390 2,420 101 CO : 2,750 2,550 93 810 720 89 IA : 3,900 4,000 103 1,240 1,230 99 KS : 6,600 6,600 100 1,670 1,730 104 MO : 4,600 4,850 105 2,150 2,300 107 MT : 3,400 3,350 99 1,500 1,480 99 NE : 6,600 7,000 106 1,950 2,040 105 OK : 5,600 5,700 102 2,100 2,150 102 SD : 4,850 4,850 100 1,980 1,950 98 TX : 15,500 15,100 97 6,200 6,100 98 WI : 3,600 3,550 99 1,510 1,500 99 : Oth Sts : 41,350 40,900 99 19,200 18,880 98 : US : 103,900 103,600 100 42,700 42,500 100 :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : Beef Cows That Have Calved : Milk Cows That Have Calved :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : --- 1,000 Head --- Percent --- 1,000 Head -- Percent CA : 700 695 99 1,690 1,725 102 CO : 710 616 87 100 104 104 IA : 1,040 1,037 100 200 193 97 KS : 1,560 1,616 104 110 114 104 MO : 2,020 2,176 108 130 124 95 MT : 1,482 1,462 99 18 18 100 NE : 1,886 1,980 105 64 60 94 OK : 2,019 2,072 103 81 78 96 SD : 1,898 1,870 99 82 80 98 TX : 5,880 5,780 98 320 320 100 WI : 255 260 102 1,255 1,240 99 : Oth Sts : 14,150 13,936 98 5,050 4,944 98 : US : 33,600 33,500 100 9,100 9,000 99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Calf Crop: Number by State and United States, 2003-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : 2004 as State : 2003 : 2004 1/ : % 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 Head --------- Percent : CA : 2,050 2,070 101 CO : 730 660 90 IA : 1,120 1,110 99 KS : 1,550 1,610 104 MO : 2,080 2,210 106 MT : 1,540 1,520 99 NE : 1,770 1,780 101 OK : 1,890 2,010 106 SD : 1,730 1,710 99 TX : 5,100 5,200 102 WI : 1,350 1,340 99 : Oth Sts : 16,993 16,480 97 : US : 37,903 37,700 99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Preliminary. Reliability of July 1 Cattle and Calves Estimates Survey Procedures: A random sample of U.S. producers was surveyed to provide data for these estimates. Survey procedures ensured that all cattle producers, regardless of size, had a chance to be included in the survey. Data were collected during the first half of June from about 40,000 small and medium sized operations. These operators were contacted by face-to-face personal interviews. About 10,000 large producers and feedlots were contacted during the first half of July by mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews. Operators were asked to report inventories as of the first of the month and calf crop for the entire year of 2004. Estimating Procedures: These cattle estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing National and State indications and analysis. National and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous year using a balance sheet. The balance sheet begins with the previous inventory estimate, adds to it estimates of births and imports for the first six months, and subtracts estimates of slaughter, exports, and deaths for the first six months of the current year. This indicated ending inventory level is compared to the Agricultural Statistics Board estimate for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve year to year and item to item relationships. Estimates for the previous year are subject to revision when current estimates are made and when the January 1 cattle inventory estimates are made. The reviews are primarily based on livestock slaughter and additional foreign trade and survey data. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date. Reliability: Since all cattle operators are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle inventory estimates over the past 20 years is 0.5 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 103.6 million head by more than 0.5 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.9 percent. The table below also shows a 20 year record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of all cattle and calves as an example, changes between the first inventory estimate and the latest estimate during the past 20 years have averaged 397,000 head, ranging from 0 to 1,300,000 head. During this period the initial inventory estimate has been below the latest estimate 4 times, above the latest estimate 11 times, and unchanged 5 times. This does not imply that the July 1 estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of July 1 Cattle Estimates 1/ 2/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90 Percent : Difference Between : : : Confidence : First and Latest : Number of : Root : Level : Estimates : Years Item : Mean :------------------------------------------------------------- :Square : : : : : : First : First : Error :Percent: Head :Average :Smallest:Largest : Above : Below : : : : : : : Latest : Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ---------- 1,000 Head ---------- Number : All Cattle: 0.5 0.9 942 397 0 1,300 11 4 : All Cows : 0.9 1.5 627 217 0 1,100 8 5 : Calf Crop : 1.6 2.7 1,042 510 23 1,236 15 5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on data from July 1984 through July 2003. 2/ Data in the above table do not reflect the 1-3 percent changes made during the 1989-93 historic revision period. 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