Mt An 2 (7-98) Cattle National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released July 17, 1998, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Cattle" call Dean Groskurth at 202-720-3040, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. July 1 Cattle Inventory Down 2 Percent All cattle and calves in the United States as of July 1, 1998, totaled 107.0 million head, 2 percent below the 109.0 million on July 1, 1997 and 4 percent below the 111.5 million two years ago. All cows and heifers that have calved, at 43.3 million, were 2 percent below the 44.0 million on July 1, 1997 and 4 percent below the 45.0 million two years ago. Beef cows, at 34.1 million, were down 2 percent from July 1, 1997 and 4 percent below two years ago. Milk cows, at 9.2 million, were down 1 percent from July 1, 1997 and 2 percent below two years ago. Other class estimates on July 1, 1998, and the changes from July 1 last year and two years ago, respectively, are as follows: All heifers 500 pounds and over, 16.7 million, down 2 percent and down 3 percent. Beef replacement heifers, 5.0 million, down 6 percent and down 9 percent. Milk replacement heifers, 3.6 million, no change and down 3 percent. Other heifers, 8.1 million, down 1 percent and no change. Steers weighing 500 pounds and over, 14.5 million, down 2 percent and down 4 percent. Bulls weighing 500 pounds and over, 2.2 million, down 4 percent and down 8 percent. Calves under 500 pounds, 30.3 million, down 2 percent and down 4 percent. All cattle and calves on feed for slaughter, 11.0 million, up 1 percent and up 12 percent. Calf Crop Down 2 Percent The 1998 calf crop is expected to be 37.9 million, down 2 percent from 1997 and down 5 percent from 1996. This would be the smallest calf crop since 1951. Calves born during the first half of the year are estimated at 27.9 million, down 2 percent from 1997 and down 5 percent from 1996. This report was approved on July 17, 1998. Acting Secretary of Agricultural Statistics Board Agriculture Chairperson I. Miley Gonzalez Rich Allen Cattle and Calves: Number by Class and Calf Crop, United States, July 1, 1996-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : 1998 as Class : 1996 : 1997 : 1998 : % of 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------- 1,000 Head ------- Percent : Cattle and Calves : 111,500 109,000 107,000 98 : Cows and Heifers That Have Calved : 45,000 44,000 43,300 98 Beef Cows : 35,600 34,700 34,100 98 Milk Cows : 9,400 9,300 9,200 99 : Heifers 500 Pounds and Over : 17,300 17,100 16,700 98 For Beef Cow Replacement : 5,500 5,300 5,000 94 For Milk Cow Replacement : 3,700 3,600 3,600 100 Other Heifers : 8,100 8,200 8,100 99 : Steers 500 Pounds and Over : 15,100 14,800 14,500 98 Bulls 500 Pounds and Over : 2,400 2,300 2,200 96 Calves Under 500 Pounds : 31,700 30,800 30,300 98 : Calf Crop : 39,776 38,718 37,900 98 : Cattle on Feed : 9,800 10,900 11,000 101 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Calf Crop: Number and Percent of Total by Six-Month Period, United States, 1996-97 and Preliminary Calf Crop, 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1996 : 1997 : 1998 :----------------------------------------------------------- Period : : % of : : % of : : % of : Number : Total : Number : Total : Number : Total -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Hd Percent 1,000 Hd Percent 1,000 Hd Percent : Jan 1 - Jun 30 : 29,400 73.9 28,500 73.6 27,900 73.6 Jul 1 - Dec 31 : 10,376 26.1 10,218 26.4 10,000 26.4 : Total : 39,776 100.0 38,718 100.0 37,900 100.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle and Calves: Balance Sheet, United States, January 1 - June 30, 1996-98 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Item : 1996 : 1997 : 1998 : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Head : January 1 Inventory : 103.5 101.5 99.5 Calf Crop and Imports : 30.5 29.5 29.0 : Total Supply 2/ : 134.0 131.0 128.5 : Slaughter : 19.5 19.1 18.5 Deaths and Exports : 2.7 2.8 2.6 : Total Disappearance 2/ : 22.2 21.9 21.1 : Residual 2/ : -0.3 0.0 -0.3 : July 1 Inventory : 111.5 109.0 107.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Preliminary. 2/ Totals may not add due to rounding. Reliability of July 1 Cattle and Calves Estimates Survey Procedures: A random sample of U.S. producers was surveyed to provide data for these estimates. Survey procedures ensured that all cattle producers, regardless of size, had a chance to be included in the survey. Data were collected during the first half of June from almost 40,000 small and medium sized operations. These operators were contacted by face-to-face personal interviews. About 9,500 large producers and feedlots were contacted during the first half of July by mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews. Operators were asked to report inventories as of the first of the month and calf crop for the entire year of 1998. Estimating Procedures: These cattle estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing National and State indications and analysis. National and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous year using a balance sheet. The balance sheet begins with the previous inventory estimate, adds to it estimates of births and imports for the first six months, and subtracts estimates of slaughter, exports, and deaths for the first six months of the current year. This indicated ending inventory level is compared to the Agricultural Statistics Board estimate for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve year to year and item to item relationships. Estimates for the previous year are subject to revision when current estimates are made and when the January 1 cattle inventory estimates are made. The reviews are primarily based on livestock slaughter and additional foreign trade and survey data. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Department of Agriculture five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date. Reliability: Since all cattle operators are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table below. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle inventory estimates over the past 20 years is 0.6 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 107.0 million head by more than 0.6 percent, or about 642,000 head. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 1.0 percent, or about 1,070,000 head (the 90 percent confidence level). The table below also shows a 20 year record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of all cattle and calves as an example, changes between the first inventory estimate and the latest estimate during the past 20 years have averaged 331,000 head, ranging from 0 to 1,500,000 head. During this period the initial inventory estimate has been below the latest estimate 4 times, above the latest estimate 10 times, and unchanged 6 times. This does not imply that the July 1 estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of July 1 Cattle Estimates 1/ 2/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90 Percent : Difference Between : : : Confidence : First and Latest : Number of : Root : Level : Estimates : Years Item : Mean :------------------------------------------------------------- :Square : : : : : : First : First : Error :Percent: Head :Average :Smallest:Largest : Above : Below : : : : : : : Latest : Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ---------- 1,000 Head ---------- Number : All Cattle: 0.6 1.0 1,070 331 0 1,500 10 4 : All Cows : 0.8 1.4 606 149 0 1,100 10 3 : Calf Crop : 1.7 2.9 1,099 373 24 1,289 17 3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on data from July 1978 through July 1997. 2/ Data in the above table do not reflect the 1-3 percent changes made during the 1990-94 historic revision period. The root mean square error's would be about 1 percent higher if these were included. The next "Cattle" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on January 29, 1999. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, gender, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation, and marital or family status. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA's TARGET Center at 202-720-2600 (voice and TDD). To file a complaint of discrimination, , write USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, Room 326-W, Whitten Building, 14th and Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, D.C., 20250-9410, or call 202-720-5964 (voice or TDD). USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer. ACCESS TO REPORTS!! 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