Mt An 2 (1-05) Cattle National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released January 28, 2005, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on Cattle call Mike Miller at (202) 720-3040, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. January 1 Cattle Inventory Up 1 Percent All cattle and calves in the United States as of January 1, 2005, totaled 95.8 million head, 1 percent above the 94.9 million on January 1, 2004. All cows and heifers that have calved, at 42.1 million, were up 1 percent from the 41.9 million on January 1, 2004. Beef cows, at 33.06 million, were up 1 percent from January 1, 2004. Milk cows, at 9.01 million, were up slightly from January 1, 2004. Other class estimates on January 1, 2005, and the change from January 1, 2004, are as follows: All heifers 500 pounds and over, 19.7 million, up 2 percent. Beef replacement heifers, 5.75 million, up 4 percent. Milk replacement heifers, 4.13 million, up 3 percent. Other heifers, 9.79 million, down slightly. Steers weighing 500 pounds and over, 16.5 million, up 1 percent. Bulls weighing 500 pounds and over, 2.22 million, up 1 percent. Calves under 500 pounds, 15.4 million, up 1 percent. Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter in all feedlots, 13.7 million, down slightly. The combined total of calves under 500 pounds, and other heifers and steers over 500 pounds outside of feedlots was 27.9 million, up 2 percent. Calf Crop Down 1 Percent The 2004 calf crop was estimated at 37.6 million head, down 1 percent from 2003. Calves born during the first half of the year are estimated at 27.4 million, down 1 percent from 2003. Revisions All inventory and calf crop estimates for July 1, 2003, January 1, 2004, and July 1, 2004, were reviewed using calf crop, official slaughter, import and export data, and the relationship of new survey information to the prior surveys. Based on the findings of this review, small adjustments of less than one-half percent were made to previously released inventory estimates by class and calf crop. State level estimates were reviewed and changes were made to reallocate inventory and calf crop estimates to the U.S. total. Cattle on Feed estimates for January 1, 2004, were revised upward slightly based on the relationship of new survey information to the prior surveys. This report was approved on January 28, 2005. Secretary of Agriculture Mike Johanns Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Rich Allen Cattle and Calves: Number by Class and Calf Crop, United States, January 1, 2004-2005 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : 2005 as Class : 2004 : 2005 : % of 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : Cattle and Calves : 94,888 95,848 101 : Cows and Heifers That Have Calved : 41,851 42,060 101 Beef Cows : 32,861 33,055 101 Milk Cows : 8,990 9,005 100 : Heifers 500 Pounds and Over : 19,345 19,673 102 For Beef Cow Replacement : 5,518 5,746 104 Expected to Calve 2/ : 3,493 3,586 103 For Milk Cow Replacement : 4,020 4,133 103 Expected to Calve 2/ : 2,761 2,830 103 Other Heifers : 9,806 9,793 100 : Steers 500 Pounds and Over : 16,277 16,511 101 Bulls 500 Pounds and Over : 2,206 2,219 101 Calves Under 500 Pounds : 15,210 15,385 101 : Cattle on Feed : 13,813 13,749 100 : :------------------------------------------ : : : 2004 as : 2003 : 2004 : % of 2003 :------------------------------------------ Calf Crop : 37,903 37,625 99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Replacement heifers expected to calve during the year. Cattle and Calves: Number Grazing on Small Grain Pasture, 3-State Total, January 1, 2004-2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : 2005 as Class : 2004 : 2005 : % of 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Head : Calves, Other Heifers and Steers : Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas : 2.90 3.10 107 : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle and Calves: Balance Sheet, United States, 2003-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Item : 2003 : 2004 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Head : January 1 Beginning Inventory : 96.1 94.9 Calf Crop and Imports : 39.7 39.0 : Total Supply 1/ : 135.8 133.9 : Slaughter : 36.7 33.8 Deaths and Exports : 4.1 4.0 : Total Disappearance 1/ : 40.8 37.8 : Residual 1/ : 0.0 -0.2 : January 1 Ending Inventory : 94.9 95.8 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. Cattle and Calves: Number by Class, State, and United States, January 1, 2004-2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : All Cattle and Calves : All Cows That Have Calved :----------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : 2005 as : : : 2005 as : 2004 : 2005 : % of 2004 : 2004 : 2005 : % of 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Head ---- Percent ---- 1,000 Head ---- Percent : AL : 1,360 1,320 97 750 740 99 AK : 13.5 14.5 107 6.3 6.6 105 AZ : 860 910 106 330 340 103 AR : 1,900 1,900 100 1,010 1,010 100 CA : 5,200 5,400 104 2,420 2,460 102 CO : 2,400 2,500 104 710 740 104 CT : 54 56 104 27 27 100 DE : 25 23 92 12 12 100 FL : 1,740 1,740 100 1,090 1,090 100 GA : 1,250 1,210 97 700 680 97 HI : 156 155 99 88 87 99 ID : 2,000 2,070 104 900 910 101 IL : 1,310 1,380 105 540 565 105 IN : 830 850 102 370 385 104 IA : 3,450 3,600 104 1,180 1,200 102 KS : 6,650 6,650 100 1,660 1,660 100 KY : 2,320 2,250 97 1,240 1,200 97 LA : 850 860 101 530 530 100 ME : 91 92 101 45 45 100 MD : 235 235 100 119 116 97 MA : 48 48 100 24 24 100 MI : 1,030 1,010 98 385 400 104 MN : 2,400 2,400 100 860 855 99 MS : 1,020 1,070 105 570 590 104 MO : 4,350 4,450 102 2,250 2,280 101 MT : 2,400 2,350 98 1,490 1,450 97 NE : 6,250 6,350 102 1,910 1,970 103 NV : 510 500 98 270 265 98 NH : 39 40 103 19.5 20.0 103 NJ : 46 44 96 22 22 100 NM : 1,510 1,500 99 780 790 101 NY : 1,420 1,410 99 740 730 99 NC : 880 870 99 460 455 99 ND : 1,750 1,710 98 970 980 101 OH : 1,230 1,300 106 520 560 108 OK : 5,100 5,400 106 2,050 2,130 104 OR : 1,440 1,430 99 720 750 104 PA : 1,640 1,630 99 720 720 100 RI : 5.5 5.5 100 3.0 2.8 93 SC : 430 435 101 235 240 102 SD : 3,650 3,750 103 1,790 1,800 101 TN : 2,210 2,170 98 1,180 1,150 97 TX : 13,900 13,800 99 5,800 5,750 99 UT : 860 860 100 440 435 99 VT : 285 275 96 155 153 99 VA : 1,540 1,640 106 800 810 101 WA : 1,120 1,080 96 510 475 93 WV : 380 405 107 200 210 105 WI : 3,350 3,350 100 1,490 1,480 99 WY : 1,400 1,350 96 760 760 100 : US : 94,888.0 95,848.0 101 41,850.8 42,060.4 101 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- continued Cattle and Calves: Number by Class, State, and United States, January 1, 2004-2005 (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Beef Cows That Have Calved : Milk Cows That Have Calved :----------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : 2005 as : : : 2005 as : 2004 : 2005 : % of 2004 : 2004 : 2005 : % of 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Head ---- Percent ---- 1,000 Head Percent : AL : 732 724 99 18 16 89 AK : 5.1 5.4 106 1.2 1.2 100 AZ : 175 175 100 155 165 106 AR : 982 984 100 28 26 93 CA : 720 720 100 1,700 1,740 102 CO : 612 639 104 98 101 103 CT : 6 7 117 21 20 95 DE : 4 4 100 8 8 100 FL : 950 952 100 140 138 99 GA : 616 596 97 84 84 100 HI : 82.0 81.3 99 6.0 5.7 95 ID : 488 475 97 412 435 106 IL : 432 460 106 108 105 97 IN : 227 230 101 143 155 108 IA : 984 1,013 103 196 187 95 KS : 1,550 1,550 100 110 110 100 KY : 1,128 1,090 97 112 110 98 LA : 489 494 101 41 36 88 ME : 11 12 109 34 33 97 MD : 42 43 102 77 73 95 MA : 6 7 117 18 17 94 MI : 85 93 109 300 307 102 MN : 395 395 100 465 460 99 MS : 541 564 104 29 26 90 MO : 2,125 2,161 102 125 119 95 MT : 1,472 1,432 97 18 18 100 NE : 1,848 1,909 103 62 61 98 NV : 245 240 98 25 25 100 NH : 3.5 4.0 114 16.0 16.0 100 NJ : 10 10 100 12 12 100 NM : 455 472 104 325 318 98 NY : 82 80 98 658 650 99 NC : 402 400 100 58 55 95 ND : 937 947 101 33 33 100 OH : 262 294 112 258 266 103 OK : 1,970 2,055 104 80 75 94 OR : 603 630 104 117 120 103 PA : 156 154 99 564 566 100 RI : 1.7 1.7 100 1.3 1.1 85 SC : 218 222 102 17 18 106 SD : 1,711 1,720 101 79 80 101 TN : 1,103 1,078 98 77 72 94 TX : 5,483 5,432 99 317 318 100 UT : 351 347 99 89 88 99 VT : 9 10 111 146 143 98 VA : 695 705 101 105 105 100 WA : 270 240 89 240 235 98 WV : 186 197 106 14 13 93 WI : 245 245 100 1,245 1,235 99 WY : 756 756 100 4 4 100 : US : 32,861.3 33,055.4 101 8,989.5 9,005.0 100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- continued Cattle and Calves: Number by Class, State, and United States, January 1, 2004-2005 (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Heifers 500 Pounds and Over :----------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Beef Cow Replacement : Milk Cow Replacement : Other :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : AL : 105 100 7 7 33 33 AK : 1.1 1.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 AZ : 33 28 37 42 20 22 AR : 180 170 10 10 85 75 CA : 125 130 730 760 170 190 CO : 95 130 45 50 580 570 CT : 1.5 2.0 10.5 11.0 1.0 1.0 DE : 0.3 0.4 2.8 2.5 1.9 0.6 FL : 140 145 40 40 20 20 GA : 85 82 26 24 30 35 HI : 12 15 2 2 6 5 ID : 95 100 180 240 205 205 IL : 61 65 52 55 132 160 IN : 41 40 55 56 62 59 IA : 125 120 95 100 590 580 KS : 230 245 80 45 1,650 1,700 KY : 160 170 40 45 110 100 LA : 81 82 10 9 17 18 ME : 4.0 4.5 18.5 19.0 1.5 1.5 MD : 10 12 30 32 10 11 MA : 1.5 2.0 9.0 8.5 0.5 0.5 MI : 30 35 130 125 51 47 MN : 100 95 280 270 190 190 MS : 95 99 12 15 25 36 MO : 280 290 60 65 270 285 MT : 420 405 8 9 142 146 NE : 280 320 20 20 1,520 1,470 NV : 44 42 10 10 35 36 NH : 1.1 1.5 8.0 9.0 0.4 0.5 NJ : 3.5 3.0 6.0 6.0 2.5 2.0 NM : 85 90 75 100 105 85 NY : 28 27 300 305 42 48 NC : 72 75 27 25 21 20 ND : 156 147 14 18 215 210 OH : 65 75 115 125 80 70 OK : 370 375 20 15 530 550 OR : 120 120 70 60 130 120 PA : 40 40 280 275 50 55 RI : 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.1 0.1 SC : 33 38 7 7 14 15 SD : 290 295 35 40 470 530 TN : 185 195 35 40 65 75 TX : 740 810 110 130 1,630 1,510 UT : 65 65 40 45 70 70 VT : 4 4 67 58 3 3 VA : 100 135 38 43 57 72 WA : 50 50 95 102 120 118 WV : 40 45 4 4 21 21 WI : 75 70 670 650 75 80 WY : 160 155 3 3 147 142 : US : 5,518.3 5,745.9 4,020.0 4,133.3 9,806.2 9,793.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- continued Cattle and Calves: Number by Class, State, and United States, January 1, 2004-2005 (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Steers : Bulls : Calves : 500 Pounds and Over : 500 Pounds and Over : Under 500 Pounds State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : AL : 55 45 50 45 360 350 AK : 1.0 1.2 1.6 1.9 2.7 2.9 AZ : 260 330 22 23 158 125 AR : 140 120 55 55 420 460 CA : 640 670 65 70 1,050 1,120 CO : 820 840 35 40 115 130 CT : 2.0 2.5 1.0 1.0 11.0 11.5 DE : 3.6 3.5 0.4 0.3 4.0 3.7 FL : 20 20 60 60 370 365 GA : 40 49 39 35 330 305 HI : 7 7 5 5 36 34 ID : 340 325 35 35 245 255 IL : 270 275 25 25 230 235 IN : 113 105 19 20 170 185 IA : 940 1,020 70 70 450 510 KS : 2,180 2,170 95 95 755 735 KY : 190 190 80 75 500 470 LA : 21 22 33 32 158 167 ME : 3.5 3.5 1.5 1.5 17.0 17.0 MD : 20 18 4 4 42 42 MA : 2.7 2.0 0.8 1.0 9.5 10.0 MI : 215 200 19 18 200 185 MN : 450 440 35 40 485 510 MS : 50 53 38 42 230 235 MO : 440 460 120 120 930 950 MT : 200 200 90 90 50 50 NE : 2,120 2,160 90 100 310 310 NV : 51 49 15 15 85 83 NH : 2.0 1.5 0.5 0.5 7.5 7.0 NJ : 3 3 1 1 8 7 NM : 190 150 45 45 230 240 NY : 37 34 18 16 255 250 NC : 40 41 30 29 230 225 ND : 260 230 50 55 85 70 OH : 180 183 30 32 240 255 OK : 1,080 1,190 130 130 920 1,010 OR : 180 165 40 40 180 175 PA : 165 170 25 25 360 345 RI : 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.8 SC : 17 13 17 18 107 104 SD : 670 720 90 85 305 280 TN : 110 115 75 75 560 520 TX : 2,750 2,750 370 370 2,500 2,480 UT : 110 110 22 22 113 113 VT : 3.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 50.0 50.0 VA : 130 140 40 40 375 400 WA : 185 170 25 23 135 142 WV : 35 35 15 15 65 75 WI : 350 360 30 30 660 680 WY : 185 145 45 45 100 100 : US : 16,277.3 16,510.8 2,205.9 2,219.3 15,209.5 15,384.9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Calf Crop: Number by State and United States, 2003-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : 2004 as State : 2003 : 2004 : % 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----------- 1,000 Head ---------- Percent : AL : 680 670 99 AK : 3.7 4.4 119 AZ : 270 275 102 AR : 860 860 100 CA : 2,050 2,070 101 CO : 730 740 101 CT : 22 23 105 DE : 9.5 8.5 89 FL : 920 910 99 GA : 580 560 97 HI : 66 63 95 ID : 880 880 100 IL : 480 520 108 IN : 330 340 103 IA : 1,120 1,100 98 KS : 1,550 1,520 98 KY : 1,110 1,040 94 LA : 415 415 100 ME : 40 38 95 MD : 100 98 98 MA : 18 19 106 MI : 350 335 96 MN : 850 830 98 MS : 480 490 102 MO : 2,080 2,060 99 MT : 1,540 1,520 99 NE : 1,770 1,800 102 NV : 235 210 89 NH : 18 18 100 NJ : 18 16 89 NM : 590 600 102 NY : 620 600 97 NC : 420 410 98 ND : 960 960 100 OH : 470 470 100 OK : 1,890 1,920 102 OR : 690 700 101 PA : 650 650 100 RI : 2.6 2.5 96 SC : 190 195 103 SD : 1,730 1,740 101 TN : 1,060 1,020 96 TX : 5,100 5,000 98 UT : 390 390 100 VT : 135 125 93 VA : 710 720 101 WA : 455 430 95 WV : 185 190 103 WI : 1,350 1,320 98 WY : 730 750 103 : US : 37,902.8 37,625.4 99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle and Calves: Total Number on Feed by State And United States, January 1, 2004-2005 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : 2005 as State : 2004 : 2005 : % of 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----------- 1,000 Head ---------- Percent : AZ : 293 335 114 AR : 10 10 100 CA : 510 535 105 CO : 1,060 1,100 104 ID : 305 300 98 IL : 200 210 105 IN : 105 125 119 IA : 950 920 97 KS : 2,480 2,460 99 KY : 10 10 100 MD : 11 12 109 MI : 210 190 90 MN : 310 290 94 MO : 65 70 108 MT : 70 60 86 NE : 2,450 2,470 101 NV : 13 10 77 NM : 115 126 110 NY : 20 23 115 NC : 5 4 80 ND : 65 60 92 OH : 200 200 100 OK : 360 355 99 OR : 85 80 94 PA : 75 75 100 SD : 375 400 107 TN : 5 5 100 TX : 2,850 2,720 95 UT : 35 35 100 VA : 29 30 103 WA : 205 195 95 WV : 5 7 140 WI : 210 225 107 WY : 100 80 80 : Oth Sts 2/: 21.9 21.7 99 : US : 13,812.9 13,748.7 100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a Ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass That will grade select or better. Cattle and calves on feed are included in The cattle inventory estimates by classes. 2/ Other States include AL, AK, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, LA, ME, MA, MS, NH, NJ, RI, SC, and VT. Cattle and Calves: Number by Class and Calf Crop United States, July 1, 2003-2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : 2004 as Class : 2003 : 2004 : % of 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- Percent : Cattle and Calves : 103,900 103,600 100 : Cows and Heifers That Have Calved : 42,700 42,500 100 Beef Cows : 33,600 33,500 100 Milk Cows : 9,100 9,000 99 : Heifers 500 Pounds and Over : 15,900 15,950 100 For Beef Cow Replacement : 4,600 4,800 104 For Milk Cow Replacement : 3,600 3,600 100 Other Heifers : 7,700 7,550 98 : Steers 500 Pounds and Over : 14,200 14,200 100 Bulls 500 Pounds and Over : 2,100 2,050 98 Calves Under 500 Pounds : 29,000 28,900 100 : Calf Crop : 37,903 37,625 99 : Cattle on Feed : 11,810 11,800 100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Revised. Calf Crop: Number and Percent of Total by Six Month Period, United States, 2003-2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2003 : 2004 :----------------------------------------------------------- Period : : % of : : % of : Number : Total : Number : Total -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Hd Percent 1,000 Hd Percent : Jan 1 - Jun 30 : 27,700.0 73.1 27,400.0 72.8 Jul 1 - Dec 31 : 10,202.8 26.9 10,225.4 27.2 : Total : 37,902.8 100.0 37,625.4 100.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Revised. Cattle and Calves: Balance Sheet, United States, January 1 - June 30, 2003-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Item : 2003 : 2004 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Head : January 1 Inventory : 96.1 94.9 Calf Crop and Imports : 28.7 28.0 : Total Supply 1/ : 124.8 122.9 : Slaughter : 18.4 16.9 Deaths and Exports : 2.4 2.4 : Total Disappearance 1/ : 20.9 19.3 : Residual 1/ : -0.1 0.0 : July 1 Inventory : 103.9 103.6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. Cattle and Calves: Number by Class, Selected States, And United States, July 1, 2003-2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : All Cattle and Calves : All Cows That Have Calved :----------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : 2004 as : : : 2004 as : 2003 : 2004 : % of 2003 : 2003 : 2004 : % of 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head Percent : CA : 5,150 5,150 100 2,390 2,420 101 CO : 2,750 2,550 93 810 720 89 IA : 3,900 4,000 103 1,240 1,230 99 KS : 6,600 6,600 100 1,670 1,730 104 MO : 4,600 4,850 105 2,150 2,300 107 MT : 3,400 3,350 99 1,500 1,480 99 NE : 6,600 7,000 106 1,950 2,040 105 OK : 5,600 5,700 102 2,100 2,150 102 SD : 4,850 4,850 100 1,980 1,950 98 TX : 15,500 15,100 97 6,200 6,100 98 WI : 3,600 3,550 99 1,510 1,500 99 : Oth Sts : 41,350 40,900 99 19,200 18,880 98 : US : 103,900 103,600 100 42,700 42,500 100 :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : Beef Cows That Have Calved : Milk Cows That Have Calved :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head Percent CA : 700 695 99 1,690 1,725 102 CO : 710 616 87 100 104 104 IA : 1,040 1,037 100 200 193 97 KS : 1,560 1,616 104 110 114 104 MO : 2,020 2,176 108 130 124 95 MT : 1,482 1,462 99 18 18 100 NE : 1,886 1,980 105 64 60 94 OK : 2,019 2,072 103 81 78 96 SD : 1,898 1,870 99 82 80 98 TX : 5,880 5,780 98 320 320 100 WI : 255 260 102 1,255 1,240 99 : Oth Sts : 14,150 13,936 98 5,050 4,944 98 : US : 33,600 33,500 100 9,100 9,000 99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Revised. Reliability of January 1 Cattle and Calves Estimates Survey Procedures: A random sample of U.S. producers was surveyed to provide data for these estimates. Survey procedures ensured that all cattle producers, regardless of size, had a chance to be included in the survey. Large producers were sampled more heavily than small operations. Data were collected from about 50,000 operators during the first half of January by mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews and 82 percent of the reports were usable. Regardless of when operators responded, they were asked to report inventories as of January 1. Estimating Procedures: These cattle estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. National and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous year using a balance sheet. The balance sheet begins with the previous inventory estimate, adds to it estimates of births and imports, and subtracts estimates of slaughter, exports, and deaths. This indicated ending inventory level is compared to the Agricultural Statistics Board estimate for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve year to year and item to item relationships. Estimates for the previous year are subject to revision when current estimates are made. The reviews are primarily based on livestock slaughter and additional foreign trade and survey data. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date. Reliability: Since all cattle operators are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle inventory estimates over the past 20 years is .6 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 95.8 million head by more than .6 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 1.0 percent. The following table also shows a 20 year record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of all cattle and calves as an example, changes between the first inventory estimate and the latest estimate during the past 20 years have averaged 400,000 head, ranging from 6,000 to 1,419,000 head. During this period the initial inventory estimate has been below the final estimate 8 times, and above the final estimate 12 times. This does not imply that the January 1 estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of January 1 Cattle Estimates 1/ 2/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90 Percent : Difference Between : : : Confidence : First and Latest : Number of : Root : Level : Estimates : Years Item : Mean :------------------------------------------------------------- :Square : : : : : : First : First : Error :Percent : Head :Average :Smallest:Largest : Above : Below : : : : : : : Latest : Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent --------- 1,000 Head --------- Number : All Cattle: 0.6 1.0 921 400 6 1,419 12 8 : All Cows : 0.7 1.2 512 203 0 911 11 8 : Calf Crop : 0.7 1.2 441 173 0 630 9 10 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on data from January 1985 through January 2004. 2/ Data in the above table do not reflect the 1-3 percent changes made During the 1989-93 historic revision period. The root mean square errors Would be about 1 percentage point higher if these were included. Index Page Calf Crop by Six Month Period, United States 10 Calf Crop, by State, and United States 8 Cattle and Calves, Number by Class, by State, and United States, January 1. . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Cattle and Calves, Number by Class, Selected States, and United States, July 1 . . . . . . . . .11 Cattle and Calves, Number Grazing on Small Grain Pasture, 3-State Total, January 1, . . . . . . . . . . 3 Cattle on Feed, by State, and United States, January 1 9 Reliability Statement . . . . .12 U.S. Balance Sheet, January 1 . 3 U.S. Balance Sheet, January 1-June 30 10 U.S. Class Inventories, January 1 3 U.S. Class Inventories, July 1 .10 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. 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