Mt An 2 (7-00) Cattle National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released July 21, 2000, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Cattle" call Greg Thessen at 202-720-3040, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. July 1 Cattle Inventory Down 1 Percent All cattle and calves in the United States as of July 1, 2000, totaled 106.4 million head, 1 percent below the 107.0 million on July 1, 1999 and 1 percent below the 107.7 million two years ago. All cows and heifers that have calved, at 43.2 million, were slightly below the 43.3 million on July 1, 1999 and 1 percent below the 43.6 million two years ago. Beef cows, at 34.0 million, were down 1 percent from July 1, 1999 and 1 percent below two years ago. Milk cows, at 9.25 million, were up 1 percent from July 1, 1999 and 1 percent above two years ago. Other class estimates on July 1, 2000, and the changes from July 1 last year and two years ago, respectively, are as follows: All heifers 500 pounds and over, 16.5 million, down 1 percent from both years. Beef replacement heifers, 4.7 million, down 2 percent and down 6 percent. Milk replacement heifers, 3.7 million, unchanged and up 3 percent. Other heifers, 8.1 million, unchanged from both years. Steers weighing 500 pounds and over, 14.3 million, down 1 percent and down 2 percent. Bulls weighing 500 pounds and over, 2.1 million, down 5 percent from both years. Calves under 500 pounds, 30.3 million, down 1 percent from both years. All cattle and calves on feed for slaughter, 12.3 million, up 7 percent and up 12 percent. Calf Crop Up Slightly The 2000 calf crop is expected to be 38.9 million, up slightly from 1999 and 1998. Calves born during the first half of the year are estimated at 28.6 million, up slightly from both years. Special Note The July 1 report will now include selected State level estimates for all cattle and calves, all cows, beef cows, milk cows, and calf crop. The eleven selected States include, California, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Texas, and Wisconsin which accounted for 60 percent of the July 1, 2000 all cattle and calf inventory. This is in addition to the U.S. level estimates that have been published in the past. Data from 1999 will reflect this change to provide the user with comparable data for 1999 and 2000. This report was approved on July 21, 2000. Acting Secretary of Agriculture I. Miley Gonzalez Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Frederic A. Vogel Cattle and Calves: Number by Class and Calf Crop, United States, July 1, 1998-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : 2000 as Class : 1998 : 1999 : 2000 : % of 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------- 1,000 Head ------- Percent : Cattle and Calves : 107,700 107,000 106,400 99 : Cows and Heifers That Have Calved : 43,600 43,300 43,200 100 Beef Cows : 34,400 34,150 33,950 99 Milk Cows : 9,200 9,150 9,250 101 : Heifers 500 Pounds and Over : 16,700 16,600 16,500 99 For Beef Cow Replacement : 5,000 4,800 4,700 98 For Milk Cow Replacement : 3,600 3,700 3,700 100 Other Heifers : 8,100 8,100 8,100 100 : Steers 500 Pounds and Over : 14,600 14,400 14,300 99 Bulls 500 Pounds and Over : 2,200 2,200 2,100 95 Calves Under 500 Pounds : 30,600 30,500 30,300 99 : Calf Crop : 38,812 38,710 38,900 100 : Cattle on Feed : 11,000 11,500 12,300 107 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Calf Crop: Number and Percent of Total by Six-Month Period, United States, 1998-1999 and Preliminary Calf Crop, 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1998 : 1999 : 2000 :----------------------------------------------------------- Period : : % of : : % of : : % of : Number : Total : Number : Total : Number : Total -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Hd Percent 1,000 Hd Percent 1,000 Hd Percent : Jan 1 - Jun 30 : 28,500 73.4 28,500 73.6 28,600 73.5 Jul 1 - Dec 31 : 10,312 26.6 10,210 26.4 10,300 26.5 : Total : 38,812 100.0 38,710 100.0 38,900 100.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle and Calves: Balance Sheet, United States, January 1 - June 30, 1998-2000 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Item : 1998 : 1999 : 2000 : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Head : January 1 Inventory : 99.7 99.1 98.0 Calf Crop and Imports : 29.5 29.5 29.6 : Total Supply 2/ : 129.3 128.6 127.7 : Slaughter : 18.5 18.6 18.9 Deaths and Exports : 2.7 2.5 2.6 : Total Disappearance 2/ : 21.1 21.1 21.4 : Residual 2/ : -0.4 -0.4 0.1 : July 1 Inventory : 107.7 107.0 106.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Preliminary. 2/ Totals may not add due to rounding. Cattle and Calves: Number by Class, State, and United States, July 1, 1999-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : All Cattle and Calves : All Cows That Have Calved :----------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : 2000 as : : : 2000 as : 1999 : 2000 : % of 1999 : 1999 : 2000 : % of 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Head --- Percent --- 1,000 Head --- Percent : CA : 4,950 5,000 101 2,260 2,310 102 CO : 3,500 3,500 100 950 960 101 IA : 3,950 3,950 100 1,250 1,250 100 KS : 6,900 6,950 101 1,740 1,720 99 MO : 4,750 4,700 99 2,220 2,220 100 MT : 3,700 3,750 101 1,590 1,630 103 NE : 7,350 7,250 99 2,120 2,080 98 OK : 5,500 5,500 100 2,100 2,100 100 SD : 4,800 4,900 102 1,910 1,950 102 TX : 14,900 14,900 100 6,150 6,100 99 WI : 3,750 3,700 99 1,620 1,600 99 : Oth Sts : 42,950 42,300 98 19,390 19,280 99 : US : 107,000 106,400 99 43,300 43,200 100 : :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : Beef Cows That Have Calved : Milk Cows That Have Calved :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : --- 1,000 Head --- Percent --- 1,000 Head -- Percent CA : 795 785 99 1,465 1,525 104 CO : 868 875 101 82 85 104 IA : 1,034 1,035 100 216 215 100 KS : 1,655 1,630 98 85 90 106 MO : 2,062 2,066 100 158 154 97 MT : 1,572 1,612 103 18 18 100 NE : 2,047 2,005 98 73 75 103 OK : 2,008 2,009 100 92 91 99 SD : 1,808 1,847 102 102 103 101 TX : 5,805 5,750 99 345 350 101 WI : 252 255 101 1,368 1,345 98 : Oth Sts : 14,244 14,081 99 5,146 5,199 101 : US : 34,150 33,950 99 9,150 9,250 101 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Calf Crop: Number by State and United States, 1999-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : 2000 as State : 1999 : 2000 1/ : % 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 Head --------- Percent : CA : 1,950 2,000 103 CO : 870 880 101 IA : 1,150 1,150 100 KS : 1,450 1,440 99 MO : 2,060 2,070 100 MT : 1,570 1,620 103 NE : 1,860 1,840 99 OK : 1,870 1,890 101 SD : 1,780 1,800 101 TX : 5,150 5,300 103 WI : 1,450 1,430 99 : Oth Sts : 17,550 17,480 100 : US : 38,710 38,900 100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Preliminary. Reliability of July 1 Cattle and Calves Estimates Survey Procedures: A random sample of U.S. producers was surveyed to provide data for these estimates. Survey procedures ensured that all cattle producers, regardless of size, had a chance to be included in the survey. Data were collected during the first half of June from almost 40,000 small and medium sized operations. These operators were contacted by face-to-face personal interviews. About 9,700 large producers and feedlots were contacted during the first half of July by mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews. Operators were asked to report inventories as of the first of the month and calf crop for the entire year of 2000. Estimating Procedures: These cattle estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing National and State indications and analysis. National and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous year using a balance sheet. The balance sheet begins with the previous inventory estimate, adds to it estimates of births and imports for the first six months, and subtracts estimates of slaughter, exports, and deaths for the first six months of the current year. This indicated ending inventory level is compared to the Agricultural Statistics Board estimate for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve year to year and item to item relationships. Estimates for the previous year are subject to revision when current estimates are made and when the January 1 cattle inventory estimates are made. The reviews are primarily based on livestock slaughter and additional foreign trade and survey data. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date. Reliability: Since all cattle operators are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle inventory estimates over the past 20 years is 0.6 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 106.4 million head by more than 0.6 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 1.1 percent. The table below also shows a 20 year record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of all cattle and calves as an example, changes between the first inventory estimate and the latest estimate during the past 20 years have averaged 274,000 head, ranging from 0 to 1,500,000 head. During this period the initial inventory estimate has been below the latest estimate 5 times, above the latest estimate 9 times, and unchanged 6 times. This does not imply that the July 1 estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of July 1 Cattle Estimates 1/ 2/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90 Percent : Difference Between : : : Confidence : First and Latest : Number of : Root : Level : Estimates : Years Item : Mean :------------------------------------------------------------- :Square : : : : : : First : First : Error :Percent: Head :Average :Smallest:Largest : Above : Below : : : : : : : Latest : Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ---------- 1,000 Head ---------- Number : All Cattle: 0.6 1.1 1,170 274 0 1,500 9 5 : All Cows : 0.8 1.4 605 119 0 1,100 9 6 : Calf Crop : 1.7 2.9 1,128 229 23 1,236 13 7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on data from July 1980 through July 1999. 2/ Data in the above table do not reflect the 1-3 percent changes made during the 1989-93 historic revision period. The root mean square error's would be about 1 percentage point higher if these were included. The next "Cattle" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on January 26, 2001. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, gender, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation, and marital or family status. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA's TARGET Center at 202-720-2600 (voice and TDD). To file a complaint of discrimination, write USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, Room 326-W, Whitten Building, 14th and Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, D.C., 20250-9410, or call 202-720-5964 (voice or TDD). USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer. ACCESS TO REPORTS!! 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