Mt An 2 (7-05) Cattle National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released July 22, 2005, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on Cattle call Mike Miller at 202-720-3040, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. July 1 Cattle Inventory Up 1 Percent All cattle and calves in the United States as of July 1, 2005, totaled 104.5 million head, 1 percent above the 103.6 million on July 1, 2004 and 1 percent above the 103.9 million two years ago. All cows and heifers that have calved, at 42.8 million, were 1 percent above the 42.5 million on July 1, 2004 and slightly above the 42.7 million two years ago. Beef cows, at 33.8 million, were up 1 percent from July 1, 2004 and up slightly from two years ago. Milk cows, at 9.05 million, were up 1 percent from July 1, 2004 but down 1 percent from two years ago. Other class estimates on July 1, 2005 and the changes from July 1, 2004, are as follows: All heifers 500 pounds and over, 16.2 million, up 2 percent. Beef replacement heifers, 5.0 million, up 4 percent. Milk replacement heifers, 3.7 million, up 3 percent. Other heifers, 7.5 million, down 1 percent. Steers weighing 500 pounds and over, 14.4 million, up 1 percent. Bulls weighing 500 pounds and over, 2.1 million, up 2 percent. Calves under 500 pounds, 29.0 million, up slightly. All cattle and calves on feed for slaughter, 12.0 million, up 2 percent. Calf Crop Up Slightly The 2005 calf crop is expected to be 37.8 million, up slightly from 2004 but down slightly from 2003. Calves born during the first half of the year are estimated at 27.5 million, up slightly from 2004 but down 1 percent from 2003. This report was approved on July 22, 2005. Secretary of Agriculture Mike Johanns Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Rich Allen Cattle and Calves: Number by Class and Calf Crop, United States, July 1, 2003-2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : 2005 as Class : 2003 : 2004 : 2005 : % of 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------- 1,000 Head ------- Percent : Cattle and Calves : 103,900 103,600 104,500 101 : Cows and Heifers That Have Calved : 42,700 42,500 42,800 101 Beef Cows : 33,600 33,500 33,750 101 Milk Cows : 9,100 9,000 9,050 101 : Heifers 500 Pounds and Over : 15,900 15,950 16,200 102 For Beef Cow Replacement : 4,600 4,800 5,000 104 For Milk Cow Replacement : 3,600 3,600 3,700 103 Other Heifers : 7,700 7,550 7,500 99 : Steers 500 Pounds and Over : 14,200 14,200 14,400 101 Bulls 500 Pounds and Over : 2,100 2,050 2,100 102 Calves Under 500 Pounds : 29,000 28,900 29,000 100 : Calf Crop : 37,903 37,625 37,800 100 : Cattle on Feed : 11,810 11,800 12,000 102 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Calf Crop: Number and Percent of Total by Six-Month Period, United States, 2003-2004 and Preliminary Calf Crop, 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2003 : 2004 : 2005 :----------------------------------------------------------- Period : : % of : : % of : : % of : Number : Total : Number : Total : Number : Total -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Hd Percent 1,000 Hd Percent 1,000 Hd Percent : Jan 1 - Jun 30 : 27,700 73.1 27,400 72.8 27,450 72.6 Jul 1 - Dec 31 : 10,203 26.9 10,225 27.2 10,350 27.4 : Total : 37,903 100.0 37,625 100.0 37,800 100.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Reliability of July 1 Cattle and Calves Estimates Survey Procedures: A random sample of U.S. producers was surveyed to provide data for these estimates. Survey procedures ensured that all cattle producers, regardless of size, had a chance to be included in the survey. Data were collected during the first half of June from about 40,000 small and medium sized operations. These operators were contacted by face-to-face personal interviews. About 10,000 large producers and feedlots were contacted during the first half of July by mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews. Operators were asked to report inventories as of the first of the month and calf crop for the entire year of 2005. Estimating Procedures: These cattle estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing National and State indications and analysis. National and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous year using a balance sheet. The balance sheet begins with the previous inventory estimate, adds to it estimates of births and imports for the first six months, and subtracts estimates of slaughter, exports, and deaths for the first six months of the current year. This indicated ending inventory level is compared to the Agricultural Statistics Board estimate for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve year to year and item to item relationships. Estimates for the previous year are subject to revision when current estimates are made and when the January 1 cattle inventory estimates are made. The reviews are primarily based on livestock slaughter and additional foreign trade and survey data. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date. Reliability: Since all cattle operators are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle inventory estimates over the past 20 years is 0.5 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 104.5 million head by more than 0.5 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.8 percent. The table below also shows a 20 year record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of all cattle and calves as an example, changes between the first inventory estimate and the latest estimate during the past 20 years have averaged 333,000 head, ranging from 0 to 1,300,000 head. During this period the initial inventory estimate has been below the latest estimate 4 times, above the latest estimate 10 times, and unchanged 6 times. This does not imply that the July 1 estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of July 1 Cattle Estimates 1/ 2/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90 Percent : Difference Between : : : Confidence : First and Latest : Number of : Root : Level : Estimates : Years Item : Mean :------------------------------------------------------------- :Square : : : : : : First : First : Error :Percent: Head :Average :Smallest:Largest : Above : Below : : : : : : : Latest : Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ---------- 1,000 Head ---------- Number : All Cattle: 0.5 0.8 877 333 0 1,300 10 4 : All Cows : 0.8 1.4 606 187 0 1,100 7 5 : Calf Crop : 1.6 2.7 1,029 497 23 1,236 15 5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on data from July 1985 through July 2004. 2/ Data in the above table do not reflect the 1-3 percent changes made during the 1989-93 historic revision period. 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