Mt An 2 (1-04) Cattle National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released January 30, 2004, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Cattle" call Steve Anderson at (202) 720-3040, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. January 1 Cattle Inventory Down 1 Percent All cattle and calves in the United States as of January 1, 2004, totaled 94.9 million head, 1 percent below the 96.1 million on January 1, 2003. All cows and heifers that have calved, at 41.9 million, were down 1 percent from the 42.1 million on January 1, 2003. Beef cows, at 32.86 million, were down slightly from January 1, 2003. Milk cows, at 8.99 million, were down 2 percent from January 1, 2003. Other class estimates on January 1, 2004 and the change from January 1, 2003, are as follows: All heifers 500 pounds and over, 19.3 million, down 1 percent. Beef replacement heifers, 5.52 million, down 2 percent. Milk replacement heifers, 4.02 million, down 2 percent. Other heifers, 9.80 million, down 1 percent. Steers weighing 500 pounds and over, 16.3 million, down 2 percent. Bulls weighing 500 pounds and over, 2.21 million, down 2 percent. Calves under 500 pounds, 15.2 million, down 2 percent. Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter in all feedlots, 13.8 million, up 4 percent. The combined total of calves under 500 pounds, and other heifers and steers over 500 pounds outside of feedlots, 27.5 million, down 4 percent. Calf Crop Down 1 Percent The 2003 calf crop was estimated at 37.9 million head, down 1 percent from 2002. Calves born during the first half of the year are estimated at 27.7 million, down 1 percent from 2002. Revisions All inventory and calf crop estimates for July 1, 2002, January 1, 2003, and July 1, 2003 were reviewed using calf crop, official slaughter, import and export data, and the relationship of new survey information to the prior surveys. Based on the findings of this review, small adjustments of less than one-half percent were made to previously released inventory estimates by class and calf crop. State level estimates were reviewed and changes were made to reallocate inventory and calf crop estimates to the U.S. total. Cattle on Feed estimates for January 1, 2003 were revised upward by 2% based on feedlots which were added to the survey program due to the 2002 Census of Agriculture. Special Note Preliminary 2002 Census data were used in the review process for the 2004 and revised 2003 estimates included in this publication. States requiring 5-year historical revisions may carry a disjointed data series from their current historical data series. January 1, 2003 and prior estimates contained in this publication will be republished in the Cattle, Final Estimates 1999-2003 publication which is scheduled for release on April 30, 2004. This report was approved on January 30, 2004. Acting Secretary of Agriculture James R. Moseley Agricultural Statistics Board Acting Chairperson Steven D. Wiyatt Cattle and Calves: Number by Class and Calf Crop, United States, January 1, 2003-2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : 2004 as Class : 2003 : 2004 : % of 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : Cattle and Calves : 96,100 94,882 99 : Cows and Heifers That Have Calved : 42,125 41,851 99 Beef Cows : 32,983 32,860 100 Milk Cows : 9,142 8,991 98 : Heifers 500 Pounds and Over : 19,628 19,341 99 For Beef Cow Replacement : 5,624 5,517 98 Expected to Calve 2/ : 3,548 3,492 98 For Milk Cow Replacement : 4,114 4,020 98 Expected to Calve 2/ : 2,877 2,761 96 Other Heifers : 9,891 9,804 99 : Steers 500 Pounds and Over : 16,554 16,280 98 Bulls 500 Pounds and Over : 2,248 2,206 98 Calves Under 500 Pounds : 15,545 15,204 98 : Cattle on Feed : 13,220 13,811 104 : :------------------------------------------ : : : 2003 as : 2002 : 2003 : % of 2002 :------------------------------------------ Calf Crop : 38,224 37,903 99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Replacement heifers expected to calve during the year. Cattle and Calves: Number Grazing on Small Grain Pasture, 3-State Total, January 1, 2003-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : 2004 as Class : 2003 : 2004 : % of 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Head : Calves, Other Heifers and Steers : Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas : 3.70 2.90 78 : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle and Calves: Balance Sheet, United States, 2002-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Item : 2002 : 2003 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Head : January 1 Beginning Inventory : 96.7 96.1 Calf Crop and Imports : 40.7 39.6 : Total Supply 2/ : 137.4 135.7 : Slaughter : 37.0 36.6 Deaths and Exports : 4.3 4.1 : Total Disappearance 2/ : 41.3 40.8 : Residual 2/ : 0 -0.1 : January 1 Ending Inventory : 96.1 94.9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final 2002 and preliminary 2003 estimates will be published in the "Meat Animals - Production, Disposition and Income" report published in April 2004. 2/ Totals may not add due to rounding. Cattle and Calves: Number by Class, State, and United States, January 1, 2003-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : All Cattle and Calves : All Cows That Have Calved :----------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : 2004 as : : : 2004 as : 2003 : 2004 : % of 2003 : 2003 : 2004 : % of 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Head ---- Percent ---- 1,000 Head ---- Percent : AL : 1,440 1,360 94 780 750 96 AK : 12.5 12.5 100 6.0 6.3 105 AZ : 840 850 101 325 330 102 AR : 1,850 1,900 103 980 1,010 103 CA : 5,250 5,200 99 2,410 2,420 100 CO : 2,650 2,400 91 800 710 89 CT : 56 54 96 29 27 93 DE : 21 25 119 13 12 92 FL : 1,750 1,740 99 1,100 1,090 99 GA : 1,290 1,250 97 710 700 99 HI : 151 156 103 86 88 102 ID : 2,000 2,010 101 880 900 102 IL : 1,360 1,310 96 540 540 100 IN : 860 830 97 375 370 99 IA : 3,550 3,450 97 1,200 1,180 98 KS : 6,350 6,650 105 1,630 1,660 102 KY : 2,430 2,320 95 1,240 1,240 100 LA : 860 850 99 520 530 102 ME : 93 91 98 46 45 98 MD : 240 235 98 121 119 98 MA : 50 48 96 25 24 96 MI : 990 1,030 104 390 385 99 MN : 2,450 2,400 98 880 860 98 MS : 1,070 1,020 95 590 570 97 MO : 4,500 4,350 97 2,250 2,250 100 MT : 2,450 2,400 98 1,450 1,490 103 NE : 6,200 6,250 101 2,000 1,910 96 NV : 510 510 100 270 270 100 NH : 40 39 98 21.0 19.5 93 NJ : 46 46 100 22 22 100 NM : 1,550 1,510 97 780 780 100 NY : 1,450 1,420 98 760 740 97 NC : 900 880 98 475 460 97 ND : 1,880 1,750 93 1,010 970 96 OH : 1,220 1,230 101 520 520 100 OK : 5,400 5,100 94 2,130 2,050 96 OR : 1,360 1,440 106 710 720 101 PA : 1,630 1,640 101 740 720 97 RI : 5.5 5.5 100 3.0 3.0 100 SC : 435 425 98 230 235 102 SD : 3,700 3,650 99 1,780 1,790 101 TN : 2,270 2,210 97 1,190 1,180 99 TX : 14,000 13,900 99 5,800 5,800 100 UT : 880 860 98 430 440 102 VT : 285 285 100 163 155 95 VA : 1,630 1,540 94 800 800 100 WA : 1,100 1,120 102 495 510 103 WV : 405 380 94 210 200 95 WI : 3,350 3,350 100 1,500 1,490 99 WY : 1,290 1,400 109 710 760 107 : US : 96,100.0 94,882.0 99 42,125.0 41,850.8 99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --continued Cattle and Calves: Number by Class, State, and United States, January 1, 2003-2004 (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Beef Cows That Have Calved : Milk Cows That Have Calved :----------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : 2004 as : : : 2004 as : 2003 : 2004 : % of 2003 : 2003 : 2004 : % of 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Head ---- Percent ---- 1,000 Head --- Percent : AL : 761 732 96 19 18 95 AK : 4.7 5.1 109 1.3 1.2 92 AZ : 170 175 103 155 155 100 AR : 949 982 103 31 28 90 CA : 740 720 97 1,670 1,700 102 CO : 702 612 87 98 98 100 CT : 6 6 100 23 21 91 DE : 4 4 100 9 8 89 FL : 953 950 100 147 140 95 GA : 625 616 99 85 84 99 HI : 79 82 104 7 6 86 ID : 490 488 100 390 412 106 IL : 426 432 101 114 108 95 IN : 230 227 99 145 143 99 IA : 992 984 99 208 196 94 KS : 1,518 1,550 102 112 110 98 KY : 1,120 1,128 101 120 112 93 LA : 475 489 103 45 41 91 ME : 10 11 110 36 34 94 MD : 41 42 102 80 77 96 MA : 5 6 120 20 18 90 MI : 89 85 96 301 300 100 MN : 400 395 99 480 465 97 MS : 557 541 97 33 29 88 MO : 2,116 2,125 100 134 125 93 MT : 1,432 1,472 103 18 18 100 NE : 1,934 1,848 96 66 62 94 NV : 245 244 100 25 26 104 NH : 4.0 3.5 88 17 16 94 NJ : 9 10 111 13 12 92 NM : 466 455 98 314 325 104 NY : 85 82 96 675 658 97 NC : 412 402 98 63 58 92 ND : 973 937 96 37 33 89 OH : 260 262 101 260 258 99 OK : 2,047 1,970 96 83 80 96 OR : 593 603 102 117 117 100 PA : 150 156 104 590 564 96 RI : 1.6 1.7 106 1.4 1.3 93 SC : 210 218 104 20 17 85 SD : 1,696 1,711 101 84 79 94 TN : 1,106 1,103 100 84 77 92 TX : 5,480 5,483 100 320 317 99 UT : 339 351 104 91 89 98 VT : 10 9 90 153 146 95 VA : 684 695 102 116 105 91 WA : 248 270 109 247 240 97 WV : 195 186 95 15 14 93 WI : 235 245 104 1,265 1,245 98 WY : 706 756 107 4 4 100 : US : 32,983.3 32,860.3 100 9,141.7 8,990.5 98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --continued Cattle and Calves: Number by Class, State, and United States, January 1, 2003-2004 (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Heifers 500 Pounds and Over :----------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Beef Cow Replacement : Milk Cow Replacement : Other :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : AL : 118 105 7 7 40 33 AK : 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 AZ : 34 33 35 37 20 20 AR : 180 180 10 10 75 85 CA : 130 125 790 730 170 170 CO : 102 95 38 45 650 580 CT : 1.0 1.5 11.0 10.5 1.5 1.0 DE : 0.3 0.3 2.7 2.8 0.6 1.9 FL : 130 140 40 40 25 20 GA : 90 85 29 26 36 30 HI : 12 12 3 2 6 6 ID : 90 95 190 180 195 205 IL : 60 61 50 52 160 132 IN : 41 41 55 55 56 62 IA : 130 125 100 95 590 590 KS : 250 230 50 80 1,620 1,650 KY : 175 160 45 40 130 110 LA : 86 81 10 10 17 17 ME : 4.5 4.0 19.0 18.5 1.5 1.5 MD : 11 10 32 30 9 10 MA : 1.0 1.5 10.0 9.0 1.0 0.5 MI : 35 30 135 130 42 51 MN : 100 100 295 280 180 190 MS : 95 95 15 12 25 25 MO : 305 280 55 60 320 270 MT : 390 420 11 8 189 142 NE : 280 280 20 20 1,390 1,520 NV : 46 44 11 10 35 35 NH : 1.5 1.1 8.0 8.0 0.5 0.4 NJ : 3.0 3.5 6 6 2.0 2.5 NM : 90 85 70 75 110 105 NY : 25 28 325 300 40 42 NC : 73 72 28 27 19 21 ND : 155 156 13 14 230 215 OH : 70 65 110 115 70 80 OK : 380 370 30 20 500 530 OR : 115 120 60 70 110 130 PA : 45 40 280 280 50 50 RI : 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.1 SC : 38 32 8 7 15 12 SD : 290 290 30 35 470 470 TN : 200 185 40 35 75 65 TX : 760 740 110 110 1,710 1,630 UT : 75 65 45 40 70 70 VT : 5 4 60 67 5 3 VA : 120 100 48 38 67 57 WA : 55 50 105 95 115 120 WV : 35 40 7 4 23 21 WI : 70 75 660 670 75 75 WY : 120 160 1 3 149 147 : US : 5,623.5 5,517.2 4,113.9 4,020.0 9,890.5 9,804.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --continued Cattle and Calves: Number by Class, State, and United States, January 1, 2003-2004 (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Steers : Bulls : Calves : 500 Pounds and Over : 500 Pounds and Over : Under 500 Pounds State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : AL : 75 55 55 50 365 360 AK : 0.8 0.8 1.3 1.3 2.6 2.4 AZ : 255 255 21 22 150 153 AR : 130 140 55 55 420 420 CA : 615 640 65 65 1,070 1,050 CO : 870 820 40 35 150 115 CT : 2.5 2.0 1.0 1.0 10.0 11.0 DE : 0.8 3.6 0.4 0.4 3.2 4.0 FL : 25 20 60 60 370 370 GA : 50 40 40 39 335 330 HI : 7 7 5 5 32 36 ID : 360 350 35 35 250 245 IL : 280 270 25 25 245 230 IN : 128 113 20 19 185 170 IA : 1,010 940 70 70 450 450 KS : 1,970 2,180 90 95 740 755 KY : 220 190 80 80 540 500 LA : 24 21 33 33 170 158 ME : 3.5 3.5 1.5 1.5 17.0 17.0 MD : 23 20 4 4 40 42 MA : 2.5 2.7 1.0 0.8 9.5 9.5 MI : 195 215 18 19 175 200 MN : 460 450 35 35 500 485 MS : 56 50 39 38 250 230 MO : 485 440 125 120 960 930 MT : 240 200 100 90 70 50 NE : 2,000 2,120 100 90 410 310 NV : 52 51 16 15 80 85 NH : 1.5 2.0 0.5 0.5 7.0 7.5 NJ : 4 3 1 1 8 8 NM : 210 190 45 45 245 230 NY : 37 37 18 18 245 255 NC : 43 40 32 30 230 230 ND : 300 260 56 50 116 85 OH : 180 180 30 30 240 240 OK : 1,230 1,080 135 130 995 920 OR : 150 180 40 40 175 180 PA : 170 165 25 25 320 360 RI : 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.8 0.8 SC : 15 15 17 17 112 107 SD : 730 670 90 90 310 305 TN : 140 110 75 75 550 560 TX : 2,750 2,750 370 370 2,500 2,500 UT : 125 110 22 22 113 113 VT : 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 46 50 VA : 190 130 40 40 365 375 WA : 177 185 23 25 130 135 WV : 43 35 14 15 73 65 WI : 345 350 30 30 670 660 WY : 170 185 45 45 95 100 : US : 16,554.1 16,280.1 2,247.9 2,205.6 15,545.1 15,204.2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Calf Crop: Number by State and United States, 2002-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : 2003 as State : 2002 : 2003 : % 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----------- 1,000 Head ---------- Percent : AL : 690 680 99 AK : 4.1 3.7 90 AZ : 270 270 100 AR : 850 860 101 CA : 2,040 2,050 100 CO : 820 730 89 CT : 24 22 92 DE : 10.0 9.5 95 FL : 930 920 99 GA : 600 580 97 HI : 63 66 105 ID : 860 880 102 IL : 490 480 98 IN : 340 330 97 IA : 1,110 1,120 101 KS : 1,510 1,550 103 KY : 1,110 1,110 100 LA : 415 415 100 ME : 42 40 95 MD : 102 100 98 MA : 19 18 95 MI : 340 350 103 MN : 880 850 97 MS : 500 480 96 MO : 2,090 2,080 100 MT : 1,520 1,540 101 NE : 1,820 1,770 97 NV : 220 235 107 NH : 19 18 95 NJ : 18 18 100 NM : 600 590 98 NY : 640 620 97 NC : 440 420 95 ND : 1,000 960 96 OH : 470 470 100 OK : 1,930 1,890 98 OR : 660 690 105 PA : 660 650 98 RI : 2.6 2.6 100 SC : 185 190 103 SD : 1,840 1,730 94 TN : 1,060 1,060 100 TX : 5,000 5,100 102 UT : 390 390 100 VT : 140 135 96 VA : 730 710 97 WA : 450 455 101 WV : 190 185 97 WI : 1,350 1,350 100 WY : 780 730 94 : US : 38,223.7 37,902.8 99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle and Calves: Total Number on Feed by State and United States, January 1, 2003-2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : 2004 as State : 2003 : 2004 : % of 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----------- 1,000 Head ---------- Percent : AL : 5 AZ : 289 293 101 AR : 15 10 67 CA : 495 510 103 CO : 1,040 1,060 102 GA : 3 ID : 305 305 100 IL : 215 200 93 IN : 115 105 91 IA : 1,090 950 87 KS : 2,240 2,480 111 KY : 10 10 100 MD : 13 11 85 MI : 180 210 117 MN : 300 310 103 MO : 70 65 93 MT : 70 70 100 NE : 2,300 2,450 107 NV : 16 13 81 NJ : 2 NM : 119 115 97 NY : 20 20 100 NC : 4 5 125 ND : 70 65 93 OH : 180 200 111 OK : 340 360 106 OR : 55 85 155 PA : 75 75 100 SC : 4 SD : 395 375 95 TN : 5 5 100 TX : 2,640 2,850 108 UT : 30 35 117 VA : 29 29 100 WA : 190 205 108 WV : 7 5 71 WI : 200 210 105 WY : 75 100 133 : Oth Sts 2/: 8.8 19.9 226 : US : 13,219.8 13,810.9 104 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. Cattle and calves on feed are included in the cattle inventory estimates by classes. 2/ Other States include AK, CT, DE, FL, HI, LA, ME, MA, MS, NH, RI, and VT. AL, GA, NJ, and SC included in Other States beginning in 2004, which impacts 2004 as a percent of 2003. Cattle and Calves: Number by Class and Calf Crop United States, July 1, 2002-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : 2003 as Class : 2002 : 2003 : % of 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- Percent : Cattle and Calves : 105,100 103,900 99 : Cows and Heifers That Have Calved : 42,900 42,700 100 Beef Cows : 33,750 33,600 100 Milk Cows : 9,150 9,100 99 : Heifers 500 Pounds and Over : 16,200 15,900 98 For Beef Cow Replacement : 4,600 4,600 100 For Milk Cow Replacement : 3,700 3,600 97 Other Heifers : 7,900 7,700 97 : Steers 500 Pounds and Over : 14,500 14,200 98 Bulls 500 Pounds and Over : 2,100 2,100 100 Calves Under 500 Pounds : 29,400 29,000 99 : Calf Crop : 38,224 37,903 99 : Cattle on Feed : 12,500 11,810 94 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Revised. Calf Crop: Number and Percent of Total by Six Month Period, United States, 2002-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 :----------------------------------------------------------- Period : : % of : : % of : Number : Total : Number : Total -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Hd Percent 1,000 Hd Percent : Jan 1 - Jun 30 : 27,900.0 73.4 27,700.0 73.0 Jul 1 - Dec 31 : 10,323.7 26.6 10,202.8 27.0 : Total : 38,223.7 100.0 37,902.8 100.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Revised. Cattle and Calves: Balance Sheet, United States, January 1 - June 30, 2002-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Item : 2002 : 2003 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Head : January 1 Inventory : 96.7 96.1 Calf Crop and Imports : 29.1 28.7 : Total Supply 1/ : 125.8 124.8 : Slaughter : 18.1 18.4 Deaths and Exports : 2.5 2.4 : Total Disappearance 1/ : 20.7 20.8 : Residual 1/ : 0.0 -0.1 : July 1 Inventory : 105.1 103.9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. Cattle and Calves: Number by Class, Selected States, and United States, July 1, 2002-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : All Cattle and Calves : All Cows That Have Calved :----------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : 2003 as : : : 2003 as : 2002 : 2003 : % of 2002 : 2002 : 2003 : % of 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Head --- Percent --- 1,000 Head --- Percent : CA : 5,200 5,150 99 2,400 2,390 100 CO : 3,050 2,750 90 880 810 92 IA : 4,000 3,900 98 1,240 1,240 100 KS : 6,550 6,600 101 1,650 1,670 101 MO : 4,650 4,600 99 2,180 2,150 99 MT : 3,350 3,400 101 1,480 1,500 101 NE : 7,050 6,600 94 2,030 1,950 96 OK : 5,600 5,600 100 2,100 2,100 100 SD : 5,000 4,850 97 2,020 1,980 98 TX : 15,000 15,500 103 6,100 6,200 102 WI : 3,550 3,600 101 1,510 1,510 100 : Oth Sts : 42,100 41,350 98 19,310 19,200 99 : US : 105,100 103,900 99 42,900 42,700 100 :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : Beef Cows That Have Calved : Milk Cows That Have Calved :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : --- 1,000 Head --- Percent --- 1,000 Head -- Percent CA : 760 700 92 1,640 1,690 103 CO : 776 710 91 104 100 96 IA : 1,030 1,040 101 210 200 95 KS : 1,543 1,560 101 107 110 103 MO : 2,043 2,020 99 137 130 95 MT : 1,462 1,482 101 18 18 100 NE : 1,963 1,886 96 67 64 96 OK : 2,016 2,019 100 84 81 96 SD : 1,934 1,898 98 86 82 95 TX : 5,783 5,880 102 317 320 101 WI : 245 255 104 1,265 1,255 99 : Oth Sts : 14,195 14,150 100 5,115 5,050 99 : US : 33,750 33,600 100 9,150 9,100 99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Revised. Reliability of January 1 Cattle and Calves Estimates Survey Procedures: A random sample of U.S. producers was surveyed to provide data for these estimates. Survey procedures ensured that all cattle producers, regardless of size, had a chance to be included in the survey. Large producers were sampled more heavily than small operations. Data were collected from about 50,000 operators during the first half of January by mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews and 83 percent of the reports were usable. Regardless of when operators responded, they were asked to report inventories as of January 1. Estimating Procedures: These cattle estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. National and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous year using a balance sheet. The balance sheet begins with the previous inventory estimate, adds to it estimates of births and imports, and subtracts estimates of slaughter, exports, and deaths. This indicated ending inventory level is compared to the Agricultural Statistics Board estimate for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve year to year and item to item relationships. Estimates for the previous year are subject to revision when current estimates are made. The reviews are primarily based on livestock slaughter and additional foreign trade and survey data. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date. Reliability: Since all cattle operators are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle inventory estimates over the past 20 years is .6 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 94.9 million head by more than .6 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 1.0 percent. The following table also shows a 20 year record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of all cattle and calves as an example, changes between the first inventory estimate and the latest estimate during the past 20 years have averaged 443,000 head, ranging from 0 to 1,419,000 head. During this period the initial inventory estimate has been equal to the final estimate one time, below the final estimate 6 times, and above the final estimate 13 times. This does not imply that the January 1 estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of January 1 Cattle Estimates 1/ 2/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90 Percent : Difference Between : : : Confidence : First and Latest : Number of : Root : Level : Estimates : Years Item : Mean :------------------------------------------------------------- :Square : : : : : : First : First : Error :Percent : Head :Average :Smallest:Largest : Above : Below : : : : : : : Latest : Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent --------- 1,000 Head --------- Number : All Cattle: 0.6 1.0 938 433 0 1,419 13 6 : All Cows : 0.7 1.2 517 215 6 911 12 8 : Calf Crop : 0.7 1.2 449 183 0 630 10 9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on data from January 1984 through January 2003. 2/ Data in the above table do not reflect the 1-3 percent changes made during the 1989-93 historic revision period. The root mean square error's would be about 1 percentage point higher if these were included. Index Page Calf Crop by Six Month Period, United States . . . . . . 10 Calf Crop, by State, and United States . . . . . . . . . . .8 Cattle and Calves, Number by Class, by State, and United States, January 1. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Cattle and Calves, Number by Class, Selected States, and United States, July 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Cattle and Calves, Number Grazing on Small Grain Pasture, 3-State Total, January 1, . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3 Cattle on Feed, by State, and United States, January 1 . . .9 Reliability Statement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 U.S. Balance Sheet, January 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3 U.S. Balance Sheet, January 1-June 30 . . . . . . . . . . 10 U.S. Class Inventories, January 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . .3 U.S. Class Inventories, July 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 The next "Cattle" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on July 23, 2004. 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