Cattle ISSN: 1948-9099 Released July 22, 2022, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). July 1 Cattle Inventory Down 2 Percent All cattle and calves in the United States on July 1, 2022 totaled 98.8 million head, 2 percent below the 101 million head on July 1, 2021. All cows and heifers that have calved totaled 39.8 million head, 2 percent below the 40.6 million head on July 1, 2021. Beef cows, at 30.4 million head, down 2 percent from a year ago. Milk cows, at 9.45 million head, down 1 percent from previous year. All heifers 500 pounds and over on July 1, 2022 totaled 15.6 million head, 2 percent below the 15.9 million head on July 1, 2021. Beef replacement heifers, at 4.15 million head, down 3 percent from a year ago. Milk replacement heifers, at 3.75 million head, down 1 percent from previous year. Other heifers, at 7.70 million head, 1 percent below a year earlier. Steers 500 pounds and over on July 1, 2022 totaled 14.4 million head, down 1 percent from July 1, 2021. Bulls 500 pounds and over on July 1, 2022 totaled 2.00 million head, unchanged from previous year. Calves under 500 pounds on July 1, 2022 totaled 27.0 million head, down 3 percent from a year earlier. Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for all feedlots totaled 13.4 million head on July 1, 2022, unchanged from previous year. Cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head accounted for 84.6 percent of the total cattle on feed on July 1, 2022, up slightly from previous year. The total of calves under 500 pounds and other heifers and steers over 500 pounds (outside of feedlots), at 35.7 million head, down 3 percent from the 36.7 million head on July 1, 2021. Calf Crop Down 1 Percent The 2022 calf crop in the United States is expected to be 34.6 million head, down 1 percent from last year. Calves born during the first half of 2022 are estimated at 25.3 million head, down 1 percent from the first half of 2021. An additional 9.30 million calves are expected to be born during the second half of 2022. This report was approved on July 22, 2022. Secretary of Agriculture Designate Seth Meyer Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Joseph L. Parsons Cattle Inventory by Class and Calf Crop - United States: July 1, 2021 and 2022 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Percent of Class : 2021 : 2022 :previous year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 head ----- percent : Cattle and calves ...................: 100,800.0 98,800.0 98 : Cows and heifers that have calved ...: 40,600.0 39,800.0 98 Beef cows .........................: 31,100.0 30,350.0 98 Milk cows .........................: 9,500.0 9,450.0 99 : Heifers 500 pounds and over .........: 15,900.0 15,600.0 98 For beef cow replacement ..........: 4,300.0 4,150.0 97 For milk cow replacement ..........: 3,800.0 3,750.0 99 Other heifers .....................: 7,800.0 7,700.0 99 : Steers 500 pounds and over ..........: 14,600.0 14,400.0 99 Bulls 500 pounds and over ...........: 2,000.0 2,000.0 100 Calves under 500 pounds .............: 27,700.0 27,000.0 97 : Cattle on feed ......................: 13,400.0 13,400.0 100 : Calf crop ...........................: 35,085.4 34,600.0 99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Calf Crop and Percent of Total by Six-Month Period - United States: 2021 and Preliminary 2022 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 2021 : 2022 :------------------------------------------------------- Period : : Percent of : : Percent of : Number : total : Number : total ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 head percent 1,000 head percent : January 1 - June 30 ........: 25,630.0 73.1 25,300.0 73.1 July 1 - December 31 .......: 9,455.4 26.9 9,300.0 26.9 : Total ......................: 35,085.4 100.0 34,600.0 100.0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: A random sample of United States producers were surveyed to provide data for these estimates. Survey procedures ensured that all cattle producers, regardless of size, had a chance to be included in the survey. During the first half of June, a probability area frame survey was conducted with a sample of approximately 9,100 segments or parcels of land. Data collected during the June Area Survey were used from cattle operations not on the list frame. During July, a probability list frame survey with a sample of approximately 15,400 producers and feedlots was conducted. These operations were contacted during the first half of July by mail, telephone, internet, and face-to-face personal interviews and the response rate was 53 percent. Operators were asked to report inventories as of the first of the month and calf crop for the entire year of 2022. Estimating Procedures: These cattle estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing National indications and analysis. National survey data was reviewed for reasonableness with estimates from the previous year using a balance sheet. The balance sheet begins with the previous inventory estimate, adds to it estimates of births and imports for the first six months, and subtracts estimates of slaughter, exports, and deaths for the first six months of the current year. This indicated ending inventory level is compared to the Agricultural Statistics Board estimate for reasonableness. Class estimates are rounded to the nearest 100,000 head with the exception of beef cows, milk cows, beef heifers, and milk heifers which are rounded to the nearest 50,000 head. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve year to year and item to item relationships. Estimates for the previous year are subject to revision when current estimates are made and when the January 1 cattle inventory estimates are made. The revisions are primarily based on livestock slaughter and additional foreign trade and survey data. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date. Reliability: Since all cattle operators are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for July cattle inventory estimates over the past 10 years is 0.4 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 98.8 million head by more than 0.4 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.8 percent. The table on the following page shows a 10-year record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of all cattle and calves as an example, changes between the first inventory estimate and the latest estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 340,000 head, ranging from 0 to 700,000 head. During this period the initial inventory estimate has been below the latest estimate 2 times and has been above the latest estimate 6 times. This does not imply that the July 1 estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of July 1 Cattle Estimates [Based on data from the past 10 years] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Years : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent ------ 1,000 head ----- ----- number ---- : All cattle and calves ...................: 0.4 0.8 340 0 700 2 6 : All cows and heifers that have calved ...: 0.4 0.8 110 0 400 1 5 : Calf crop ...............................: 0.9 1.7 240 15 708 0 10 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@usda.gov. Travis Averill, Chief, Livestock Branch ......... (202) 692-0069 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (202) 690-8632 Ryan Cowen - Cattle, Cattle on Feed .......... (202) 720-3040 Anthony Fischer - Hogs and Pigs .............. (202) 720-3106 Logan Hartley-Sanguinett - Sheep and Goats ... (202) 690-3236 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Suzanne Richards - Dairy Products ............ (202) 720-4448 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: www.nass.usda.gov. Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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