Milk Production ISSN: 1949-1557 Released June 18, 2019, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Special Note NASS added Georgia to the monthly estimating program beginning with this report. For comparison purposes, historic estimates for Georgia and the 24 States from January 2018 to March 2019 were populated to Quick Stats. The change to a 24-State total accounted for 157 million of the 195 million pound revision to the 23-State production total for April 2019. The remaining 38 million pounds, or 0.2 percent, were a result of the normal revision process. May Milk Production down 0.1 Percent Milk production in the 24 major States during May totaled 18.1 billion pounds, down 0.1 percent from May 2018. April revised production, at 17.6 billion pounds, was up 0.5 percent from April 2018. The April revision represented an increase of 195 million pounds or 1.1 percent from last month's preliminary 23-State production estimate. Production per cow in the 24 major States averaged 2,062 pounds for May, 11 pounds above May 2018. The number of milk cows on farms in the 24 major States was 8.79 million head, 55,000 head less than May 2018, but 5,000 head more than April 2019. Milk Cows and Production by Quarter - United States: 2018-2019 [May not add due to rounding. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : from : : : : : : : 2018 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head ---- pounds ---- million pounds percent : January-March ...: 9,435 9,346 5,766 5,827 54,399 54,462 0.1 April-June ......: 9,418 5,928 55,831 July-September ..: 9,383 5,752 53,969 October-December : 9,359 5,703 53,376 : Annual ..........: 9,399 23,149 217,575 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production by Month - 24 Selected States: 2018-2019 [May not add due to rounding. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : from : : : : : : : 2018 :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : January .......: 8,856 8,805 1,973 2,009 17,469 17,685 1.2 February ......: 8,855 8,805 1,817 1,834 16,086 16,148 0.4 March .........: 8,849 8,788 2,033 2,041 17,994 17,940 -0.3 April .........: 8,844 8,788 1,976 1,999 17,475 17,570 0.5 May ...........: 8,848 8,793 2,051 2,062 18,151 18,128 -0.1 June ..........: 8,840 1,961 17,336 July ..........: 8,829 1,977 17,454 August ........: 8,826 1,968 17,372 September .....: 8,807 1,880 16,561 October .......: 8,807 1,931 17,005 November ......: 8,802 1,876 16,514 December ......: 8,798 1,964 17,282 : Annual ........: 8,830 23,407 206,699 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production by Month - United States: 2018-2019 [May not add due to rounding. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : from : : : : : : : 2018 :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : January .......: 9,438 9,356 1,953 1,988 18,437 18,604 0.9 February ......: 9,436 9,354 1,799 1,816 16,973 16,985 0.1 March .........: 9,430 9,329 2,014 2,023 18,989 18,873 -0.6 April .........: 9,418 9,328 1,955 1,980 18,412 18,468 0.3 May ...........: 9,422 9,333 2,030 2,042 19,131 19,055 -0.4 June ..........: 9,414 1,943 18,288 July ..........: 9,392 1,952 18,329 August ........: 9,389 1,943 18,245 September .....: 9,368 1,857 17,395 October .......: 9,367 1,908 17,873 November ......: 9,358 1,854 17,348 December ......: 9,353 1,941 18,155 : Annual ........: 9,399 23,149 217,575 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 24 Selected States: May 2018 and 2019 [May not add due to rounding] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ State :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : from : : : : : : : 2018 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : Arizona .........: 208 199 2,145 2,145 446 427 -4.3 California ......: 1,735 1,728 2,035 2,070 3,531 3,577 1.3 Colorado ........: 177 183 2,215 2,220 392 406 3.6 Florida .........: 122 115 1,830 1,845 223 212 -4.9 Georgia .........: 83 83 1,885 1,880 156 156 - Idaho ...........: 610 619 2,170 2,170 1,324 1,343 1.4 Illinois ........: 93 84 1,890 1,860 176 156 -11.4 Indiana .........: 184 179 2,010 2,010 370 360 -2.7 Iowa ............: 220 217 2,060 2,085 453 452 -0.2 Kansas ..........: 158 162 2,050 2,020 324 327 0.9 : Michigan ........: 423 425 2,330 2,330 986 990 0.4 Minnesota .......: 454 448 1,895 1,915 860 858 -0.2 New Mexico ......: 332 324 2,190 2,225 727 721 -0.8 New York ........: 624 627 2,100 2,110 1,310 1,323 1.0 Ohio ............: 262 250 1,900 1,905 498 476 -4.4 Oregon ..........: 121 122 1,810 1,820 219 222 1.4 Pennsylvania ....: 523 493 1,825 1,800 954 887 -7.0 South Dakota ....: 121 123 1,940 1,920 235 236 0.4 Texas ...........: 535 565 2,120 2,115 1,134 1,195 5.4 Utah ............: 101 98 2,015 2,020 204 198 -2.9 : Vermont .........: 127 126 1,845 1,855 234 234 - Virginia ........: 84 76 1,760 1,750 148 133 -10.1 Washington ......: 277 278 2,110 2,110 584 587 0.5 Wisconsin .......: 1,274 1,269 2,090 2,090 2,663 2,652 -0.4 : 24-State Total ..: 8,848 8,793 2,051 2,062 18,151 18,128 -0.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Represents zero. 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 24 Selected States: April 2018 and 2019 [May not add due to rounding] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : from : : : : : : : 2018 :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : Arizona .......: 210 199 2,135 2,125 448 423 -5.6 California ....: 1,735 1,728 1,990 2,050 3,453 3,542 2.6 Colorado ......: 175 182 2,160 2,155 378 392 3.7 Florida .......: 122 115 1,780 1,790 217 206 -5.1 Georgia .......: 84 83 1,870 1,890 157 157 - Idaho .........: 607 618 2,035 2,070 1,235 1,279 3.6 Illinois ......: 93 84 1,800 1,800 167 151 -9.6 Indiana .......: 185 179 1,950 1,940 361 347 -3.9 Iowa ..........: 220 217 2,010 2,010 442 436 -1.4 Kansas ........: 157 163 1,990 1,965 312 320 2.6 : Michigan ......: 423 425 2,210 2,235 935 950 1.6 Minnesota .....: 454 448 1,805 1,835 819 822 0.4 New Mexico ....: 334 321 2,165 2,165 723 695 -3.9 New York ......: 624 627 1,980 2,020 1,236 1,267 2.5 Ohio ..........: 262 250 1,830 1,830 479 458 -4.4 Oregon ........: 121 122 1,740 1,760 211 215 1.9 Pennsylvania ..: 524 495 1,775 1,745 930 864 -7.1 South Dakota ..: 120 123 1,855 1,835 223 226 1.3 Texas .........: 533 562 2,060 2,085 1,098 1,172 6.7 Utah ..........: 99 98 1,945 1,930 193 189 -2.1 : Vermont .......: 127 126 1,755 1,800 223 227 1.8 Virginia ......: 85 76 1,715 1,715 146 130 -11.0 Washington ....: 276 278 2,030 2,030 560 564 0.7 Wisconsin .....: 1,274 1,269 1,985 2,000 2,529 2,538 0.4 : 24-State Total : 8,844 8,788 1,976 1,999 17,475 17,570 0.5 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Represents zero. 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies such as Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) Dairy Market News. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January Cattle Survey. Estimation Procedures: Regional Field Offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, milk per cow, and number of milk cows are subject to revision the following month after initial publication for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, administrative data from Federal Market Orders, State Departments of Agriculture, or other sources are the main basis for revisions. However, administrative data for all States may not be available in time for these revisions. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table below. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the 24 State milk production estimates over the past 16 months is 0.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 18.1 billion pounds by more than 0.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.2 percent. Reliability of Monthly Milk Production Estimates [Based on data for the past 16 months. 24-State data not available prior to 2018] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ----- number ----- : : Milk production ..............: 0.1 0.2 18 2 59 11 5 : All Milk cows ................: 0.2 0.3 12 0 31 13 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov. Travis Averill, Chief, Livestock Branch ......... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (202) 690-8632 Holly Brenize - Sheep and Goats .............. (202) 720-0585 Donnie Fike - Dairy Products ................. (202) 720-4448 Heidi Lanouette - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ..... (202) 720-3040 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Seth Riggins - Hogs and Pigs ................. (202) 720-3106 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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