Milk Production ISSN: 1949-1557 Released November 20, 2017, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). October Milk Production up 1.5 Percent Milk production in the 23 major States during October totaled 16.7 billion pounds, up 1.5 percent from October 2016. September revised production, at 16.2 billion pounds, was up 1.1 percent from September 2016. The September revision represented a decrease of 9 million pounds or 0.1 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,917 pounds for October, 13 pounds above October 2016. This is the highest production per cow for the month of October since the 23 State series began in 2003. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.74 million head, 67,000 head more than October 2016, but 1,000 head less than September 2017. October Milk Production in the United States up 1.4 Percent Milk production in the United States during October totaled 17.8 billion pounds, up 1.4 percent from October 2016. Production per cow in the United States averaged 1,894 pounds for October, 12 pounds above October 2016. The number of milk cows on farms in the United States was 9.40 million head, 65,000 head more than October 2016, but 1,000 head less than September 2017. Milk Cows and Production by Quarter - United States: 2016-2017 [May not add due to rounding. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2016 : 2017 : 2016 : 2017 : 2016 : 2017 : from : : : : : : : 2016 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head ---- pounds ---- million pounds percent : January-March ...: 9,312 9,370 5,691 5,717 52,998 53,568 1.1 April-June ......: 9,323 9,398 5,828 5,886 54,331 55,314 1.8 July-September ..: 9,331 9,403 5,636 5,688 52,590 53,486 1.7 October-December : 9,344 5,620 52,517 : Annual ..........: 9,328 22,774 212,436 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production by Month - 23 Selected States: 2016-2017 [May not add due to rounding. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Milk cows1/ : Milk per cow2/ : Milk production2/ :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2016 : 2017 : 2016 : 2017 : 2016 : 2017 : from : : : : : : : 2016 :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : January .......: 8,621 8,691 1,920 1,955 16,553 16,995 2.7 February ......: 8,628 8,694 1,833 1,797 15,817 15,627 -1.2 March .........: 8,637 8,711 1,994 2,015 17,222 17,554 1.9 April .........: 8,638 8,720 1,947 1,971 16,817 17,189 2.2 May ...........: 8,641 8,727 2,019 2,036 17,442 17,769 1.9 June ..........: 8,648 8,731 1,926 1,940 16,654 16,935 1.7 July ..........: 8,658 8,732 1,948 1,972 16,863 17,220 2.1 August ........: 8,666 8,740 1,922 1,947 16,659 17,019 2.2 September .....: 8,664 8,736 1,845 1,851 15,989 16,166 1.1 October .......: 8,668 8,735 1,904 1,917 16,503 16,744 1.5 November ......: 8,675 1,852 16,066 December ......: 8,683 1,932 16,777 : Annual ........: 8,652 23,042 199,362 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production by Month - United States: 2016-2017 [May not add due to rounding. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Milk cows1/ : Milk per cow2/ : Milk production2/ :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2016 : 2017 : 2016 : 2017 : 2016 : 2017 : from : : : : : : : 2016 :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : January .......: 9,304 9,362 1,902 1,938 17,693 18,145 2.6 February ......: 9,311 9,365 1,815 1,782 16,904 16,684 -1.3 March .........: 9,321 9,382 1,974 1,997 18,401 18,739 1.8 April .........: 9,321 9,392 1,925 1,951 17,947 18,320 2.1 May ...........: 9,322 9,400 1,997 2,015 18,613 18,942 1.8 June ..........: 9,326 9,402 1,906 1,920 17,771 18,052 1.6 July ..........: 9,329 9,403 1,920 1,943 17,908 18,269 2.0 August ........: 9,334 9,404 1,895 1,920 17,692 18,056 2.1 September .....: 9,331 9,401 1,821 1,825 16,990 17,161 1.0 October .......: 9,335 9,400 1,882 1,894 17,565 17,805 1.4 November ......: 9,344 1,830 17,100 December ......: 9,354 1,908 17,852 : Annual ........: 9,328 22,774 212,436 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 23 Selected States: October 2016 and 2017 [May not add due to rounding] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ State :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change : 2016 : 2017 : 2016 : 2017 : 2016 : 2017 : from : : : : : : : 2016 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : Arizona .........: 197 206 1,930 1,965 380 405 6.6 California ......: 1,758 1,745 1,880 1,865 3,305 3,254 -1.5 Colorado ........: 153 162 2,175 2,175 333 352 5.7 Florida .........: 120 123 1,475 1,445 177 178 0.6 Idaho ...........: 599 603 2,065 2,055 1,237 1,239 0.2 Illinois ........: 93 93 1,620 1,680 151 156 3.3 Indiana .........: 184 187 1,880 1,910 346 357 3.2 Iowa ............: 215 219 1,955 1,995 420 437 4.0 Kansas ..........: 147 152 1,925 1,945 283 296 4.6 Michigan ........: 422 428 2,140 2,180 903 933 3.3 : Minnesota .......: 461 457 1,720 1,785 793 816 2.9 New Mexico ......: 321 329 2,025 2,000 650 658 1.2 New York ........: 620 624 2,000 1,985 1,240 1,239 -0.1 Ohio ............: 263 264 1,750 1,780 460 470 2.2 Oregon ..........: 124 122 1,695 1,680 210 205 -2.4 Pennsylvania ....: 526 525 1,695 1,710 892 898 0.7 South Dakota ....: 115 118 1,870 1,890 215 223 3.7 Texas ...........: 490 515 1,885 1,890 924 973 5.3 Utah ............: 91 97 1,955 1,950 178 189 6.2 Vermont .........: 129 128 1,750 1,765 226 226 - : Virginia ........: 88 87 1,585 1,650 139 144 3.6 Washington ......: 275 274 2,005 2,000 551 548 -0.5 Wisconsin .......: 1,277 1,277 1,950 1,995 2,490 2,548 2.3 : 23-State Total ..: 8,668 8,735 1,904 1,917 16,503 16,744 1.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Represents zero. 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 23 Selected States: September 2016 and 2017 [May not add due to rounding] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change : 2016 : 2017 : 2016 : 2017 : 2016 : 2017 : from : : : : : : : 2016 :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : Arizona .......: 197 205 1,815 1,820 358 373 4.2 California ....: 1,758 1,745 1,805 1,760 3,173 3,071 -3.2 Colorado ......: 152 162 2,130 2,135 324 346 6.8 Florida .......: 120 123 1,450 1,400 174 172 -1.1 Idaho .........: 599 603 2,045 2,025 1,225 1,221 -0.3 Illinois ......: 94 93 1,560 1,600 147 149 1.4 Indiana .......: 184 187 1,805 1,820 332 340 2.4 Iowa ..........: 214 219 1,880 1,915 402 419 4.2 Kansas ........: 147 152 1,835 1,880 270 286 5.9 Michigan ......: 422 428 2,085 2,100 880 899 2.2 : Minnesota .....: 461 457 1,670 1,740 770 795 3.2 New Mexico ....: 318 331 1,965 1,965 625 650 4.0 New York ......: 620 624 1,950 1,925 1,209 1,201 -0.7 Ohio ..........: 264 264 1,675 1,710 442 451 2.0 Oregon ........: 125 122 1,690 1,665 211 203 -3.8 Pennsylvania ..: 527 525 1,630 1,665 859 874 1.7 South Dakota ..: 115 118 1,800 1,820 207 215 3.9 Texas .........: 485 515 1,790 1,855 868 955 10.0 Utah ..........: 91 97 1,900 1,910 173 185 6.9 Vermont .......: 130 128 1,690 1,710 220 219 -0.5 : Virginia ......: 89 87 1,520 1,580 135 137 1.5 Washington ....: 275 274 1,985 1,970 546 540 -1.1 Wisconsin .....: 1,277 1,277 1,910 1,930 2,439 2,465 1.1 : 23-State Total : 8,664 8,736 1,845 1,851 15,989 16,166 1.1 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January Cattle Survey. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, milk per cow, and number of milk cows are subject to revision the following month after initial publication for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, administrative data from Federal Market Orders, State Departments of Agriculture, or other sources are the main basis for revisions. However, administrative data for all States may not be available in time for these revisions. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table below. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the 23 State milk production estimates over the past 24 months is 0.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 16.7 billion pounds by more than 0.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.2 percent. Reliability of Monthly Milk Production Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ----- number ----- : : Milk production ..............: 0.1 0.2 16 1 41 13 11 : All Milk cows ................: 0.1 0.1 4 0 10 9 13 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov. Travis Averill, Chief, Livestock Branch ......... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (202) 720-3240 Donnie Fike - Dairy Products ................. (202) 690-3236 Heidi Gleich - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ........ (202) 720-3040 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Seth Riggins - Hogs and Pigs ................. (202) 720-3106 Vacant - Sheep and Goats ..................... (202) 720-8784 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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