Milk Production ISSN: 1949-1557 Released March 20, 2017, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). February Milk Production down 1.0 Percent Milk production in the 23 major States during February totaled 15.7 billion pounds, down 1.0 percent from February 2016. However, production was 2.5 percent above last year after adjusting for the leap year. January revised production, at 17.0 billion pounds, was up 2.7 percent from January 2016. The January revision represented a decrease of 4 million pounds or less than 0.1 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,801 pounds for February, 32 pounds below February 2016. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.69 million head, 66,000 head more than February 2016, and 3,000 head more than January 2017. February Milk Production in the United States down 1.2 Percent Milk production in the United States during February totaled 16.7 billion pounds, down 1.2 percent from February 2016. However, production was 2.3 percent above last year after adjusting for the leap year. Production per cow in the United States averaged 1,782 pounds for February, 33 pounds below February 2016. The number of milk cows on farms in the United States was 9.37 million head, 56,000 head more than February 2016, and 4,000 head more than January 2017. Milk Cows and Production by Quarter - United States: 2016-2017 [May not add due to rounding] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2016 : 2017 : 2016 : 2017 : 2016 : 2017 : from : : : : : : : 2016 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head --- pounds -- million pounds percent : January-March ...: 9,312 5,691 52,998 April-June ......: 9,323 5,828 54,331 July-September ..: 9,331 5,636 52,590 October-December : 9,344 5,620 52,517 : Annual ..........: 9,328 22,774 212,436 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production By Month - 23 Selected States: 2016-2017 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Milk cows1/ : Milk per cow2/ : Milk production2/ :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2016 : 2017 : 2016 : 2017 : 2016 : 2017 : from : : : : : : : 2016 :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : January .......: 8,621 8,691 1,920 1,955 16,553 16,995 2.7 February ......: 8,628 8,694 1,833 1,801 15,817 15,654 -1.0 March .........: 8,637 1,994 17,222 April .........: 8,638 1,947 16,817 May ...........: 8,641 2,019 17,442 June ..........: 8,648 1,926 16,654 July ..........: 8,658 1,948 16,863 August ........: 8,666 1,922 16,659 September .....: 8,664 1,845 15,989 October .......: 8,668 1,904 16,503 November ......: 8,675 1,852 16,066 December ......: 8,683 1,932 16,777 : Annual ........: 8,652 23,042 199,362 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production By Month - United States: 2016-2017 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Milk cows1/ : Milk per cow2/ : Milk production2/ :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2016 : 2017 : 2016 : 2017 : 2016 : 2017 : from : : : : : : : 2016 :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : January .......: 9,304 9,363 1,902 1,936 17,693 18,127 2.5 February ......: 9,311 9,367 1,815 1,782 16,904 16,695 -1.2 March .........: 9,321 1,974 18,401 April .........: 9,321 1,925 17,947 May ...........: 9,322 1,997 18,613 June ..........: 9,326 1,906 17,771 July ..........: 9,329 1,920 17,908 August ........: 9,334 1,895 17,692 September .....: 9,331 1,821 16,990 October .......: 9,335 1,882 17,565 November ......: 9,344 1,830 17,100 December ......: 9,354 1,908 17,852 : Annual ........: 9,328 22,774 212,436 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 23 Selected States: February 2016 and 2017 [May not add due to rounding] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ State :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change : 2016 : 2017 : 2016 : 2017 : 2016 : 2017 : from : : : : : : : 2016 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : Arizona .........: 197 199 2,095 2,060 413 410 -0.7 California ......: 1,769 1,754 1,865 1,780 3,299 3,122 -5.4 Colorado ........: 148 156 2,050 2,005 303 313 3.3 Florida .........: 126 122 1,715 1,705 216 208 -3.7 Idaho ...........: 589 600 1,910 1,825 1,125 1,095 -2.7 Illinois ........: 94 93 1,660 1,630 156 152 -2.6 Indiana .........: 184 186 1,815 1,780 334 331 -0.9 Iowa ............: 211 216 1,870 1,845 395 399 1.0 Kansas ..........: 143 151 1,830 1,800 262 272 3.8 Michigan ........: 414 425 2,050 2,020 849 859 1.2 : Minnesota .......: 460 460 1,680 1,670 773 768 -0.6 New Mexico ......: 311 325 1,900 1,960 591 637 7.8 New York ........: 620 621 1,845 1,845 1,144 1,146 0.2 Ohio ............: 266 262 1,640 1,620 436 424 -2.8 Oregon ..........: 126 124 1,650 1,580 208 196 -5.8 Pennsylvania ....: 530 525 1,630 1,635 864 858 -0.7 South Dakota ....: 113 117 1,770 1,725 200 202 1.0 Texas ...........: 455 495 1,815 1,875 826 928 12.3 Utah ............: 93 92 1,715 1,740 159 160 0.6 Vermont .........: 131 129 1,650 1,645 216 212 -1.9 : Virginia ........: 91 87 1,565 1,570 142 137 -3.5 Washington ......: 277 275 1,920 1,825 532 502 -5.6 Wisconsin .......: 1,280 1,280 1,855 1,815 2,374 2,323 -2.1 : 23-State Total ..: 8,628 8,694 1,833 1,801 15,817 15,654 -1.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 23 Selected States: January 2016 and 2017 [May not add due to rounding] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows1/ : Milk per cow2/ : Milk production 2/ :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change : 2016 : 2017 : 2016 : 2017 : 2016 : 2017 : from : : : : : : : 2016 :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : Arizona .......: 195 198 2,110 2,145 411 425 3.4 California ....: 1,769 1,755 1,940 1,945 3,432 3,413 -0.6 Colorado ......: 148 155 2,160 2,175 320 337 5.3 Florida .......: 126 122 1,810 1,850 228 226 -0.9 Idaho .........: 588 600 2,005 1,995 1,179 1,197 1.5 Illinois ......: 94 93 1,745 1,765 164 164 - Indiana .......: 184 186 1,915 1,930 352 359 2.0 Iowa ..........: 210 215 1,985 2,000 417 430 3.1 Kansas ........: 142 151 1,905 1,935 271 292 7.7 Michigan ......: 413 425 2,170 2,190 896 931 3.9 : Minnesota .....: 460 460 1,770 1,805 814 830 2.0 New Mexico ....: 310 325 1,900 2,090 589 679 15.3 New York ......: 620 621 1,960 2,030 1,215 1,261 3.8 Ohio ..........: 266 262 1,765 1,790 469 469 - Oregon ........: 126 124 1,720 1,685 217 209 -3.7 Pennsylvania ..: 530 525 1,715 1,765 909 927 2.0 South Dakota ..: 112 117 1,890 1,880 212 220 3.8 Texas .........: 455 494 1,835 2,015 835 995 19.2 Utah ..........: 94 92 1,845 1,925 173 177 2.3 Vermont .......: 131 129 1,755 1,805 230 233 1.3 : Virginia ......: 91 87 1,645 1,700 150 148 -1.3 Washington ....: 277 275 2,005 1,960 555 539 -2.9 Wisconsin .....: 1,280 1,280 1,965 1,980 2,515 2,534 0.8 : 23-State Total : 8,621 8,691 1,920 1,955 16,553 16,995 2.7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Represents zero. 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January Cattle Survey. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, milk per cow, and number of milk cows are subject to revision the following month after initial publication for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, administrative data from Federal Market Orders, State Departments of Agriculture, or other sources are the main basis for revisions. However, administrative data for all States may not be available in time for these revisions. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table below. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the 23 State milk production estimates over the past 24 months is 0.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 15.7 billion pounds by more than 0.2 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.3 percent. Reliability of Monthly Milk Production Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ----- number ----- : : Milk production ..............: 0.2 0.3 20 1 70 14 10 : All Milk cows ................: 0.1 0.1 4 1 10 9 15 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ........... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (202) 720-3240 David Colwell - Sheep and Goats .............. (202) 720-8784 Donnie Fike - Dairy Products ................. (202) 690-3236 Michael Klamm - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ....... (202) 720-3040 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Seth Riggins - Hogs and Pigs ................. (202) 720-3106 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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