Milk Production ISSN: 1949-1557 Released December 20, 2016, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). November Milk Production up 2.6 Percent Milk production in the 23 major States during November totaled 16.1 billion pounds, up 2.6 percent from November 2015. October production, unrevised at 16.5 billion pounds, was up 2.7 percent from October 2015. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,851 pounds for November, 40 pounds above November 2015. This is the highest production per cow for the month of November since the 23 State series began in 2003. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.67 million head, 33,000 head more than November 2015, and 4,000 head more than October 2016. November Milk Production in the United States up 2.4 Percent Milk production in the United States during November totaled 17.1 billion pounds, up 2.4 percent from November 2015. Production per cow in the United States averaged 1,829 pounds for November, 39 pounds above November 2015. The number of milk cows on farms in the United States was 9.34 million head, 17,000 head more than November 2015, and 4,000 head more than October 2016. Milk Cows and Production by Quarter - United States: 2015-2016 [May not add due to rounding] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : from : : : : : : : 2015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head ---- pounds ---- million pounds percent : January-March ...: 9,309 9,319 5,579 5,692 51,936 53,041 2.1 April-June ......: 9,321 9,327 5,763 5,828 53,720 54,360 1.2 July-September ..: 9,315 9,336 5,549 5,632 51,685 52,579 1.7 October-December : 9,321 5,503 51,292 : Annual ..........: 9,317 22,393 208,633 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production By Month - 23 Selected States: 2015-2016 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Milk cows1/ : Milk per cow2/ : Milk production2/ :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : from : : : : : : : 2015 :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : January .......: 8,621 8,627 1,919 1,922 16,544 16,581 0.2 February ......: 8,621 8,633 1,754 1,833 15,124 15,824 4.6 March .........: 8,623 8,644 1,962 1,993 16,918 17,227 1.8 April .........: 8,627 8,644 1,929 1,947 16,641 16,830 1.1 May ...........: 8,633 8,644 1,998 2,019 17,246 17,448 1.2 June ..........: 8,630 8,647 1,900 1,927 16,397 16,664 1.6 July ..........: 8,630 8,661 1,922 1,949 16,589 16,876 1.7 August ........: 8,633 8,674 1,894 1,920 16,349 16,658 1.9 September .....: 8,636 8,671 1,807 1,842 15,609 15,969 2.3 October .......: 8,638 8,669 1,860 1,903 16,063 16,493 2.7 November ......: 8,640 8,673 1,811 1,851 15,646 16,057 2.6 December ......: 8,638 1,896 16,381 : Annual ........: 8,631 22,652 195,507 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production By Month - United States: 2015-2016 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Milk cows1/ : Milk per cow2/ : Milk production2/ :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : from : : : : : : : 2015 :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : January .......: 9,308 9,310 1,900 1,903 17,685 17,718 0.2 February ......: 9,308 9,317 1,737 1,815 16,166 16,912 4.6 March .........: 9,311 9,329 1,942 1,974 18,085 18,411 1.8 April .........: 9,316 9,327 1,909 1,926 17,788 17,964 1.0 May ...........: 9,324 9,327 1,976 1,997 18,428 18,622 1.1 June ..........: 9,323 9,328 1,878 1,905 17,504 17,774 1.5 July ..........: 9,314 9,329 1,897 1,921 17,665 17,925 1.5 August ........: 9,315 9,341 1,868 1,894 17,403 17,693 1.7 September .....: 9,317 9,337 1,784 1,817 16,617 16,961 2.1 October .......: 9,320 9,335 1,838 1,880 17,130 17,550 2.5 November ......: 9,322 9,339 1,790 1,829 16,689 17,085 2.4 December ......: 9,320 1,875 17,473 : Annual ........: 9,317 22,393 208,633 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 23 Selected States: November 2015 and 2016 [May not add due to rounding] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ State :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : from : : : : : : : 2015 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : Arizona .........: 195 197 1,950 1,955 380 385 1.3 California ......: 1,776 1,765 1,805 1,820 3,206 3,212 0.2 Colorado ........: 147 152 2,075 2,125 305 323 5.9 Florida .........: 125 120 1,530 1,535 191 184 -3.7 Idaho ...........: 587 599 1,935 1,965 1,136 1,177 3.6 Illinois ........: 94 93 1,600 1,610 150 150 - Indiana .........: 184 185 1,800 1,815 331 336 1.5 Iowa ............: 210 212 1,850 1,905 389 404 3.9 Kansas ..........: 142 148 1,770 1,890 251 280 11.6 Michigan ........: 411 423 2,050 2,100 843 888 5.3 : Minnesota .......: 460 461 1,660 1,680 764 774 1.3 New Mexico ......: 322 323 1,915 1,980 617 640 3.7 New York ........: 620 620 1,850 1,930 1,147 1,197 4.4 Ohio ............: 266 262 1,635 1,670 435 438 0.7 Oregon ..........: 126 124 1,620 1,630 204 202 -1.0 Pennsylvania ....: 530 525 1,615 1,670 856 877 2.5 South Dakota ....: 110 115 1,810 1,820 199 209 5.0 Texas ...........: 462 490 1,785 1,875 825 919 11.4 Utah ............: 95 90 1,820 1,845 173 166 -4.0 Vermont .........: 131 129 1,640 1,700 215 219 1.9 : Virginia ........: 90 88 1,545 1,540 139 136 -2.2 Washington ......: 277 275 1,905 1,915 528 527 -0.2 Wisconsin .......: 1,280 1,277 1,845 1,890 2,362 2,414 2.2 : 23-State Total ..: 8,640 8,673 1,811 1,851 15,646 16,057 2.6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Represents zero. 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 23 Selected States: October 2015 and 2016 [May not add due to rounding] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows1/ : Milk per cow2/ : Milk production 2/ :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : from : : : : : : : 2015 :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : Arizona .......: 195 197 1,930 1,940 376 382 1.6 California ....: 1,777 1,765 1,825 1,875 3,243 3,309 2.0 Colorado ......: 146 151 2,185 2,190 319 331 3.8 Florida .......: 125 120 1,470 1,475 184 177 -3.8 Idaho .........: 587 599 2,035 2,065 1,195 1,237 3.5 Illinois ......: 94 93 1,610 1,620 151 151 - Indiana .......: 183 184 1,830 1,860 335 342 2.1 Iowa ..........: 210 212 1,900 1,955 399 414 3.8 Kansas ........: 142 147 1,840 1,925 261 283 8.4 Michigan ......: 410 422 2,100 2,140 861 903 4.9 : Minnesota .....: 460 461 1,695 1,720 780 793 1.7 New Mexico ....: 323 321 1,990 2,025 643 650 1.1 New York ......: 620 620 1,910 2,000 1,184 1,240 4.7 Ohio ..........: 266 263 1,705 1,730 454 455 0.2 Oregon ........: 126 124 1,685 1,695 212 210 -0.9 Pennsylvania ..: 530 526 1,660 1,710 880 899 2.2 South Dakota ..: 109 115 1,890 1,870 206 215 4.4 Texas .........: 462 490 1,845 1,885 852 924 8.5 Utah ..........: 96 90 1,900 1,910 182 172 -5.5 Vermont .......: 131 129 1,670 1,750 219 226 3.2 : Virginia ......: 90 88 1,595 1,585 144 139 -3.5 Washington ....: 277 275 1,975 2,005 547 551 0.7 Wisconsin .....: 1,279 1,277 1,905 1,950 2,436 2,490 2.2 : 23-State Total : 8,638 8,669 1,860 1,903 16,063 16,493 2.7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Represents zero. 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January Cattle Survey. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, milk per cow, and number of milk cows are subject to revision the following month after initial publication for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, administrative data from Federal Market Orders, State Departments of Agriculture, or other sources are the main basis for revisions. However, administrative data for all States may not be available in time for these revisions. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table below. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the 23 State milk production estimates over the past 24 months is 0.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 16.1 billion pounds by more than 0.2 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.3 percent. Reliability of Monthly Milk Production Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ----- number ----- : : Milk production ..............: 0.2 0.3 21 0 71 17 6 : All Milk cows ................: 0.0 0.1 3 0 12 14 5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ........... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (202) 720-3240 David Colwell - Sheep and Goats .............. (202) 720-8784 Donnie Fike - Dairy Products ................. (202) 690-3236 Michael Klamm - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ....... (202) 720-3040 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Seth Riggins - Hogs and Pigs ................. (202) 720-3106 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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