Milk Production ISSN: 1949-1557 Released May 18, 2018, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). April Milk Production up 0.7 Percent Milk production in the 23 major States during April totaled 17.3 billion pounds, up 0.7 percent from April 2017. March revised production, at 17.8 billion pounds, was up 1.4 percent from March 2017. The March revision represented a decrease of 9 million pounds or 0.1 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,982 pounds for April, 10 pounds above April 2017. This is the highest production per cow for the month of April since the 23 State series began in 2003. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.74 million head, 14,000 head more than April 2017, but 2,000 head less than March 2018. April Milk Production in the United States up 0.6 Percent Milk production in the United States during April totaled 18.4 billion pounds, up 0.6 percent from April 2017. Production per cow in the United States averaged 1,961 pounds for April, 9 pounds above April 2017. The number of milk cows on farms in the United States was 9.40 million head, 8,000 head more than April 2017, but 2,000 head less than March 2018. Milk Cows and Production by Quarter - United States: 2017-2018 [May not add due to rounding. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2017 : 2018 : 2017 : 2018 : 2017 : 2018 : from : : : : : : : 2017 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head ---- pounds ---- million pounds percent : January-March ...: 9,369 9,406 5,717 5,781 53,562 54,376 1.5 April-June ......: 9,399 5,888 55,344 July-September ..: 9,402 5,687 53,473 October-December : 9,398 5,649 53,087 : Annual ..........: 9,392 22,941 215,466 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production by Month - 23 Selected States: 2017-2018 [May not add due to rounding. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2017 : 2018 : 2017 : 2018 : 2017 : 2018 : from : : : : : : : 2017 :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : January .......: 8,691 8,744 1,955 1,979 16,993 17,302 1.8 February ......: 8,696 8,745 1,799 1,821 15,645 15,922 1.8 March .........: 8,714 8,738 2,016 2,038 17,564 17,812 1.4 April .........: 8,722 8,736 1,972 1,982 17,200 17,312 0.7 May ...........: 8,730 2,037 17,783 June ..........: 8,733 1,941 16,947 July ..........: 8,734 1,972 17,224 August ........: 8,741 1,946 17,014 September .....: 8,737 1,850 16,162 October .......: 8,731 1,914 16,710 November ......: 8,734 1,859 16,235 December ......: 8,736 1,943 16,978 : Annual ........: 8,725 23,204 202,455 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production by Month - United States: 2017-2018 [May not add due to rounding. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2017 : 2018 : 2017 : 2018 : 2017 : 2018 : from : : : : : : : 2017 :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : January .......: 9,359 9,407 1,937 1,959 18,128 18,433 1.7 February ......: 9,365 9,408 1,783 1,803 16,694 16,965 1.6 March .........: 9,383 9,402 1,997 2,019 18,740 18,978 1.3 April .........: 9,392 9,400 1,952 1,961 18,332 18,435 0.6 May ...........: 9,401 2,016 18,952 June ..........: 9,404 1,920 18,060 July ..........: 9,404 1,943 18,268 August ........: 9,404 1,919 18,049 September .....: 9,399 1,825 17,156 October .......: 9,395 1,891 17,769 November ......: 9,398 1,837 17,260 December ......: 9,400 1,921 18,058 : Annual ........: 9,392 22,941 215,466 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 23 Selected States: April 2017 and 2018 [May not add due to rounding] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ State :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change : 2017 : 2018 : 2017 : 2018 : 2017 : 2018 : from : : : : : : : 2017 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : Arizona .........: 204 207 2,205 2,200 450 455 1.1 California ......: 1,755 1,736 1,960 1,990 3,440 3,455 0.4 Colorado ........: 159 171 2,165 2,210 344 378 9.9 Florida .........: 124 123 1,830 1,805 227 222 -2.2 Idaho ...........: 596 605 2,000 2,040 1,192 1,234 3.5 Illinois ........: 93 93 1,810 1,800 168 167 -0.6 Indiana .........: 186 187 1,955 1,960 364 367 0.8 Iowa ............: 217 220 1,995 2,000 433 440 1.6 Kansas ..........: 152 157 1,955 1,990 297 312 5.1 Michigan ........: 426 423 2,225 2,210 948 935 -1.4 : Minnesota .......: 459 454 1,810 1,790 831 813 -2.2 New Mexico ......: 328 334 2,150 2,165 705 723 2.6 New York ........: 623 625 2,035 1,980 1,268 1,238 -2.4 Ohio ............: 262 257 1,835 1,825 481 469 -2.5 Oregon ..........: 124 121 1,725 1,720 214 208 -2.8 Pennsylvania ....: 525 525 1,805 1,775 948 932 -1.7 South Dakota ....: 117 120 1,855 1,840 217 221 1.8 Texas ...........: 510 520 2,010 2,110 1,025 1,097 7.0 Utah ............: 94 97 1,940 1,975 182 192 5.5 Vermont .........: 129 127 1,785 1,755 230 223 -3.0 : Virginia ........: 87 85 1,765 1,740 154 148 -3.9 Washington ......: 273 275 1,990 2,035 543 560 3.1 Wisconsin .......: 1,279 1,274 1,985 1,980 2,539 2,523 -0.6 : 23-State Total ..: 8,722 8,736 1,972 1,982 17,200 17,312 0.7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 23 Selected States: March 2017 and 2018 [May not add due to rounding] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change : 2017 : 2018 : 2017 : 2018 : 2017 : 2018 : from : : : : : : : 2017 :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : Arizona .......: 202 207 2,285 2,265 462 469 1.5 California ....: 1,755 1,736 1,995 2,070 3,501 3,594 2.7 Colorado ......: 158 171 2,235 2,255 353 386 9.3 Florida .......: 124 123 1,925 1,895 239 233 -2.5 Idaho .........: 596 605 2,025 2,075 1,207 1,255 4.0 Illinois ......: 93 93 1,860 1,875 173 174 0.6 Indiana .......: 186 187 1,995 2,025 371 379 2.2 Iowa ..........: 216 220 2,045 2,035 442 448 1.4 Kansas ........: 153 156 2,030 2,050 311 320 2.9 Michigan ......: 425 425 2,265 2,260 963 961 -0.2 : Minnesota .....: 459 454 1,855 1,865 851 847 -0.5 New Mexico ....: 327 334 2,220 2,215 726 740 1.9 New York ......: 622 625 2,055 2,020 1,278 1,263 -1.2 Ohio ..........: 262 258 1,865 1,860 489 480 -1.8 Oregon ........: 124 121 1,775 1,750 220 212 -3.6 Pennsylvania ..: 525 525 1,840 1,835 966 963 -0.3 South Dakota ..: 117 120 1,915 1,900 224 228 1.8 Texas .........: 507 518 2,100 2,155 1,065 1,116 4.8 Utah ..........: 94 97 1,950 1,985 183 193 5.5 Vermont .......: 129 128 1,820 1,805 235 231 -1.7 : Virginia ......: 87 86 1,795 1,765 156 152 -2.6 Washington ....: 273 275 2,020 2,070 551 569 3.3 Wisconsin .....: 1,280 1,274 2,030 2,040 2,598 2,599 - : 23-State Total : 8,714 8,738 2,016 2,038 17,564 17,812 1.4 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Represents zero. 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies such as Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) Dairy Market News. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January Cattle Survey. Estimation Procedures: Regional Field Offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, milk per cow, and number of milk cows are subject to revision the following month after initial publication for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, administrative data from Federal Market Orders, State Departments of Agriculture, or other sources are the main basis for revisions. However, administrative data for all States may not be available in time for these revisions. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table below. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the 23 State milk production estimates over the past 24 months is 0.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 17.3 billion pounds by more than 0.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.2 percent. Reliability of Monthly Milk Production Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ----- number ----- : : Milk production ..............: 0.1 0.2 18 2 48 14 10 : All Milk cows ................: 0.1 0.1 4 0 10 13 9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov. Travis Averill, Chief, Livestock Branch ......... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (202) 720-3240 Holly Brenize - Sheep and Goats .............. (202) 720-0585 Donnie Fike - Dairy Products ................. (202) 690-3236 Heidi Gleich - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ........ (202) 720-3040 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Seth Riggins - Hogs and Pigs ................. (202) 720-3106 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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