Milk Production ISSN: 1949-1557 Released May 19, 2016, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). April Milk Production up 1.2 Percent Milk production in the 23 major States during April totaled 16.8 billion pounds, up 1.2 percent from April 2015. March revised production, at 17.2 billion pounds, was up 1.8 percent from March 2015. The March revision represented an increase of 7 million pounds or less than 0.1 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,948 pounds for April, 19 pounds above April 2015. This is the highest production per cow for the month of April since the 23 State series began in 2003. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.65 million head, 21,000 head more than April 2015, and 4,000 head more than March 2016. April Milk Production in the United States up 1.2 Percent Milk production in the United States during April totaled 18.0 billion pounds, up 1.2 percent from April 2015. Production per cow in the United States averaged 1,929 pounds for April, 20 pounds above April 2015. The number of milk cows on farms in the United States was 9.33 million head, 15,000 head more than April 2015, and 4,000 head more than March 2016. Milk Cows and Production by Quarter - United States: 2015-2016 [May not add due to rounding] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : from : : : : : : : 2015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head ---- pounds ---- million pounds percent : January-March ...: 9,309 9,317 5,579 5,693 51,936 53,045 2.1 April-June ......: 9,321 5,763 53,720 July-September ..: 9,315 5,549 51,685 October-December : 9,321 5,503 51,292 : Annual ..........: 9,317 22,393 208,633 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production By Month - 23 Selected States: 2015-2016 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Milk cows1/ : Milk per cow2/ : Milk production2/ :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : from : : : : : : : 2015 :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : January .......: 8,621 8,627 1,919 1,922 16,544 16,581 0.2 February ......: 8,621 8,633 1,754 1,833 15,124 15,824 4.6 March .........: 8,623 8,644 1,962 1,993 16,918 17,227 1.8 April .........: 8,627 8,648 1,929 1,948 16,641 16,843 1.2 May ...........: 8,633 1,998 17,246 June ..........: 8,630 1,900 16,397 July ..........: 8,630 1,922 16,589 August ........: 8,633 1,894 16,349 September .....: 8,636 1,807 15,609 October .......: 8,638 1,860 16,063 November ......: 8,640 1,811 15,646 December ......: 8,638 1,896 16,381 : Annual ........: 8,631 22,652 195,507 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production By Month - United States: 2015-2016 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Milk cows1/ : Milk per cow2/ : Milk production2/ :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : from : : : : : : : 2015 :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : January .......: 9,308 9,309 1,900 1,903 17,685 17,719 0.2 February ......: 9,308 9,315 1,737 1,816 16,166 16,913 4.6 March .........: 9,311 9,327 1,942 1,974 18,085 18,413 1.8 April .........: 9,316 9,331 1,909 1,929 17,788 18,000 1.2 May ...........: 9,324 1,976 18,428 June ..........: 9,323 1,878 17,504 July ..........: 9,314 1,897 17,665 August ........: 9,315 1,868 17,403 September .....: 9,317 1,784 16,617 October .......: 9,320 1,838 17,130 November ......: 9,322 1,790 16,689 December ......: 9,320 1,875 17,473 : Annual ........: 9,317 22,393 208,633 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 23 Selected States: April 2015 and 2016 [May not add due to rounding] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ State :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : from : : : : : : : 2015 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : Arizona .........: 195 198 2,200 2,190 429 434 1.2 California ......: 1,779 1,773 2,025 1,965 3,602 3,484 -3.3 Colorado ........: 145 149 2,170 2,155 315 321 1.9 Florida .........: 125 124 1,895 1,855 237 230 -3.0 Idaho ...........: 585 591 2,005 2,025 1,173 1,197 2.0 Illinois ........: 95 94 1,760 1,790 167 168 0.6 Indiana .........: 181 184 1,875 1,900 339 350 3.2 Iowa ............: 212 212 1,940 2,005 411 425 3.4 Kansas ..........: 144 144 1,945 1,940 280 279 -0.4 Michigan ........: 404 417 2,100 2,165 848 903 6.5 : Minnesota .......: 460 460 1,720 1,765 791 812 2.7 New Mexico ......: 323 311 2,105 2,110 680 656 -3.5 New York ........: 617 620 1,875 1,965 1,157 1,218 5.3 Ohio ............: 268 266 1,730 1,745 464 464 - Oregon ..........: 125 126 1,735 1,745 217 220 1.4 Pennsylvania ....: 530 530 1,745 1,755 925 930 0.5 South Dakota ....: 103 114 1,840 1,840 190 210 10.5 Texas ...........: 462 463 1,940 1,965 896 910 1.6 Utah ............: 96 95 1,950 1,945 187 185 -1.1 Vermont .........: 131 131 1,695 1,740 222 228 2.7 : Virginia ........: 92 90 1,680 1,665 155 150 -3.2 Washington ......: 277 277 2,020 2,030 560 562 0.4 Wisconsin .......: 1,278 1,279 1,875 1,960 2,396 2,507 4.6 : 23-State Total ..: 8,627 8,648 1,929 1,948 16,641 16,843 1.2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Represents zero. 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 23 Selected States: March 2015 and 2016 [May not add due to rounding] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows1/ : Milk per cow2/ : Milk production 2/ :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : from : : : : : : : 2015 :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : Arizona .......: 195 198 2,265 2,265 442 448 1.4 California ....: 1,779 1,773 2,080 2,035 3,700 3,608 -2.5 Colorado ......: 145 149 2,190 2,210 318 329 3.5 Florida .......: 125 125 1,960 1,895 245 237 -3.3 Idaho .........: 583 591 2,035 2,075 1,186 1,226 3.4 Illinois ......: 95 94 1,770 1,830 168 172 2.4 Indiana .......: 181 184 1,895 1,945 343 358 4.4 Iowa ..........: 211 211 1,965 2,035 415 429 3.4 Kansas ........: 144 144 1,970 1,990 284 287 1.1 Michigan ......: 403 416 2,130 2,220 858 924 7.7 : Minnesota .....: 460 460 1,760 1,810 810 833 2.8 New Mexico ....: 323 311 2,125 2,140 686 666 -2.9 New York ......: 617 620 1,905 1,995 1,175 1,237 5.3 Ohio ..........: 268 266 1,745 1,780 468 473 1.1 Oregon ........: 125 126 1,785 1,780 223 224 0.4 Pennsylvania ..: 530 530 1,770 1,780 938 943 0.5 South Dakota ..: 102 114 1,890 1,890 193 215 11.4 Texas .........: 464 458 1,925 1,990 893 911 2.0 Utah ..........: 96 95 1,990 1,975 191 188 -1.6 Vermont .......: 132 131 1,720 1,780 227 233 2.6 : Virginia ......: 92 91 1,685 1,695 155 154 -0.6 Washington ....: 277 277 2,055 2,065 569 572 0.5 Wisconsin .....: 1,276 1,280 1,905 2,000 2,431 2,560 5.3 : 23-State Total : 8,623 8,644 1,962 1,993 16,918 17,227 1.8 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January Cattle Survey. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, milk per cow, and number of milk cows are subject to revision the following month after initial publication for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, administrative data from Federal Market Orders, State Departments of Agriculture, or other sources are the main basis for revisions. However, administrative data for all States may not be available in time for these revisions. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table below. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the 23 State milk production estimates over the past 24 months is 0.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 16.8 billion pounds by more than 0.2 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.3 percent. Reliability of Monthly Milk Production Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ----- number ----- : : Milk production ..............: 0.2 0.3 26 4 71 20 4 : All Milk cows ................: 0.1 0.1 4 0 16 19 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ........... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (202) 720-3240 Doug Bounds - Hogs and Pigs .................. (202) 720-3106 David Colwell - Sheep and Goats .............. (202) 720-8784 Donnie Fike - Dairy Products ................. (202) 690-3236 Michael Klamm - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ....... (202) 720-3040 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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