Milk Production ISSN: 1949-1557 Released May 20, 2019, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Special Note NASS will add Georgia to the monthly estimating program beginning with the June 2019 report. For comparison purposes, historic estimates for Georgia from January 2018 through March 2019 will be populated in Quick Stats with the release of the June report. April Milk Production up 0.3 Percent Milk production in the 23 major States during April totaled 17.4 billion pounds, up 0.3 percent from April 2018. March revised production, at 17.8 billion pounds, was down 0.3 percent from March 2018. The March revision represented a decrease of 40 million pounds or 0.2 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,996 pounds for April, 19 pounds above April 2018. This is the highest production per cow for the month of April since the 23 State series began in 2003. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.71 million head, 55,000 head less than April 2018, and 1,000 head less than March 2019. Milk Cows and Production by Quarter - United States: 2018-2019 [May not add due to rounding. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : from : : : : : : : 2018 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head ---- pounds ---- million pounds percent : January-March ...: 9,435 9,346 5,766 5,827 54,399 54,462 0.1 April-June ......: 9,418 5,928 55,831 July-September ..: 9,383 5,752 53,969 October-December : 9,359 5,703 53,376 : Annual ..........: 9,399 23,149 217,575 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production by Month - 23 Selected States: 2018-2019 [May not add due to rounding. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : from : : : : : : : 2018 :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : January .......: 8,771 8,723 1,973 2,009 17,308 17,526 1.3 February ......: 8,770 8,723 1,817 1,834 15,936 16,000 0.4 March .........: 8,764 8,706 2,034 2,042 17,826 17,775 -0.3 April .........: 8,760 8,705 1,977 1,996 17,318 17,375 0.3 May ...........: 8,765 2,053 17,995 June ..........: 8,758 1,963 17,195 July ..........: 8,748 1,979 17,311 August ........: 8,747 1,970 17,233 September .....: 8,727 1,883 16,432 October .......: 8,726 1,933 16,870 November ......: 8,721 1,878 16,374 December ......: 8,717 1,966 17,135 : Annual ........: 8,748 23,426 204,933 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production by Month - United States: 2018-2019 [May not add due to rounding. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : from : : : : : : : 2018 :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : January .......: 9,438 9,356 1,953 1,988 18,437 18,604 0.9 February ......: 9,436 9,354 1,799 1,816 16,973 16,985 0.1 March .........: 9,430 9,329 2,014 2,023 18,989 18,873 -0.6 April .........: 9,418 9,328 1,955 1,976 18,412 18,430 0.1 May ...........: 9,422 2,030 19,131 June ..........: 9,414 1,943 18,288 July ..........: 9,392 1,952 18,329 August ........: 9,389 1,943 18,245 September .....: 9,368 1,857 17,395 October .......: 9,367 1,908 17,873 November ......: 9,358 1,854 17,348 December ......: 9,353 1,941 18,155 : Annual ........: 9,399 23,149 217,575 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 23 Selected States: April 2018 and 2019 [May not add due to rounding] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ State :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : from : : : : : : : 2018 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : Arizona .........: 210 200 2,135 2,135 448 427 -4.7 California ......: 1,735 1,728 1,990 2,050 3,453 3,542 2.6 Colorado ........: 175 182 2,160 2,155 378 392 3.7 Florida .........: 122 115 1,780 1,785 217 205 -5.5 Idaho ...........: 607 617 2,035 2,045 1,235 1,262 2.2 Illinois ........: 93 84 1,800 1,800 167 151 -9.6 Indiana .........: 185 179 1,950 1,940 361 347 -3.9 Iowa ............: 220 217 2,010 2,010 442 436 -1.4 Kansas ..........: 157 162 1,990 1,950 312 316 1.3 Michigan ........: 423 425 2,210 2,235 935 950 1.6 : Minnesota .......: 454 448 1,805 1,825 819 818 -0.1 New Mexico ......: 334 321 2,165 2,165 723 695 -3.9 New York ........: 624 627 1,980 2,010 1,236 1,260 1.9 Ohio ............: 262 250 1,830 1,810 479 453 -5.4 Oregon ..........: 121 122 1,740 1,745 211 213 0.9 Pennsylvania ....: 524 495 1,775 1,745 930 864 -7.1 South Dakota ....: 120 124 1,855 1,830 223 227 1.8 Texas ...........: 533 562 2,060 2,085 1,098 1,172 6.7 Utah ............: 99 98 1,945 1,920 193 188 -2.6 Vermont .........: 127 126 1,755 1,800 223 227 1.8 : Virginia ........: 85 76 1,715 1,715 146 130 -11.0 Washington ......: 276 277 2,030 2,020 560 560 - Wisconsin .......: 1,274 1,270 1,985 2,000 2,529 2,540 0.4 : 23-State Total ..: 8,760 8,705 1,977 1,996 17,318 17,375 0.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Represents zero. 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 23 Selected States: March 2018 and 2019 [May not add due to rounding] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : from : : : : : : : 2018 :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : Arizona .......: 211 201 2,205 2,195 465 441 -5.2 California ....: 1,738 1,729 2,065 2,090 3,589 3,614 0.7 Colorado ......: 173 182 2,230 2,200 386 400 3.6 Florida .......: 123 116 1,895 1,880 233 218 -6.4 Idaho .........: 607 616 2,085 2,095 1,266 1,291 2.0 Illinois ......: 93 84 1,875 1,880 174 158 -9.2 Indiana .......: 185 180 1,995 1,985 369 357 -3.3 Iowa ..........: 220 217 2,070 2,075 455 450 -1.1 Kansas ........: 157 163 2,040 1,970 320 321 0.3 Michigan ......: 425 425 2,260 2,285 961 971 1.0 : Minnesota .....: 454 448 1,865 1,880 847 842 -0.6 New Mexico ....: 334 322 2,220 2,210 741 712 -3.9 New York ......: 625 627 2,020 2,055 1,263 1,288 2.0 Ohio ..........: 262 251 1,875 1,850 491 464 -5.5 Oregon ........: 121 122 1,750 1,780 212 217 2.4 Pennsylvania ..: 524 495 1,830 1,790 959 886 -7.6 South Dakota ..: 120 124 1,900 1,895 228 235 3.1 Texas .........: 530 557 2,105 2,120 1,116 1,181 5.8 Utah ..........: 99 98 1,955 1,940 194 190 -2.1 Vermont .......: 128 126 1,805 1,855 231 234 1.3 : Virginia ......: 86 76 1,765 1,755 152 133 -12.5 Washington ....: 275 277 2,070 2,030 569 562 -1.2 Wisconsin .....: 1,274 1,270 2,045 2,055 2,605 2,610 0.2 : 23-State Total : 8,764 8,706 2,034 2,042 17,826 17,775 -0.3 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies such as Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) Dairy Market News. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January Cattle Survey. Estimation Procedures: Regional Field Offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, milk per cow, and number of milk cows are subject to revision the following month after initial publication for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, administrative data from Federal Market Orders, State Departments of Agriculture, or other sources are the main basis for revisions. However, administrative data for all States may not be available in time for these revisions. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table below. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the 23 State milk production estimates over the past 24 months is 0.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 17.4 billion pounds by more than 0.2 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.3 percent. Reliability of Monthly Milk Production Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ----- number ----- : : Milk production ..............: 0.2 0.3 23 2 67 15 9 : All Milk cows ................: 0.2 0.3 14 0 31 22 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov. Travis Averill, Chief, Livestock Branch ......... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (202) 690-8632 Holly Brenize - Sheep and Goats .............. (202) 720-0585 Donnie Fike - Dairy Products ................. (202) 720-4448 Heidi Gleich - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ........ (202) 720-3040 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Seth Riggins - Hogs and Pigs ................. (202) 720-3106 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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