Milk Production ISSN: 1949-1557 Released September 18, 2019, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). August Milk Production up 0.4 Percent Milk production in the 24 major States during August totaled 17.4 billion pounds, up 0.4 percent from August 2018. July revised production, at 17.5 billion pounds, was up 0.4 percent from July 2018. The July revision represented an increase of 38 million pounds or 0.2 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 24 major States averaged 1,986 pounds for August, 18 pounds above August 2018. The number of milk cows on farms in the 24 major States was 8.78 million head, 48,000 head less than August 2018, and 1,000 head less than July 2019. August Milk Production in the United States up 0.2 Percent Milk production in the United States during August totaled 18.3 billion pounds, up 0.2 percent from August 2018. Production per cow in the United States averaged 1,962 pounds for August, 19 pounds above August 2018. The number of milk cows on farms in the United States was 9.32 million head, 71,000 head less than August 2018, and 2,000 head less than July 2019. Milk Cows and Production by Quarter - United States: 2018-2019 [May not add due to rounding. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : from : : : : : : : 2018 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head ---- pounds ---- million pounds percent : January-March ...: 9,435 9,344 5,766 5,827 54,399 54,450 0.1 April-June ......: 9,418 9,327 5,928 5,980 55,831 55,778 -0.1 July-September ..: 9,383 5,752 53,969 October-December : 9,359 5,703 53,376 : Annual ..........: 9,399 23,149 217,575 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production by Month - 24 Selected States: 2018-2019 [May not add due to rounding. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : from : : : : : : : 2018 :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : January .......: 8,856 8,805 1,973 2,009 17,469 17,685 1.2 February ......: 8,855 8,805 1,817 1,834 16,086 16,148 0.4 March .........: 8,849 8,788 2,033 2,041 17,994 17,940 -0.3 April .........: 8,844 8,788 1,976 1,999 17,475 17,570 0.5 May ...........: 8,848 8,790 2,051 2,064 18,151 18,146 - June ..........: 8,840 8,777 1,961 1,979 17,336 17,374 0.2 July ..........: 8,829 8,779 1,977 1,995 17,454 17,518 0.4 August ........: 8,826 8,778 1,968 1,986 17,372 17,434 0.4 September .....: 8,807 1,880 16,561 October .......: 8,807 1,931 17,005 November ......: 8,802 1,876 16,514 December ......: 8,798 1,964 17,282 : Annual ........: 8,830 23,407 206,699 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ - Represents zero. 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production by Month - United States: 2018-2019 [May not add due to rounding. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : from : : : : : : : 2018 :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : January .......: 9,438 9,352 1,953 1,989 18,437 18,600 0.9 February ......: 9,436 9,350 1,799 1,816 16,973 16,981 - March .........: 9,430 9,330 2,014 2,022 18,989 18,869 -0.6 April .........: 9,418 9,330 1,955 1,978 18,412 18,458 0.2 May ...........: 9,422 9,333 2,030 2,043 19,131 19,064 -0.4 June ..........: 9,414 9,319 1,943 1,959 18,288 18,256 -0.2 July ..........: 9,392 9,320 1,952 1,971 18,329 18,370 0.2 August ........: 9,389 9,318 1,943 1,962 18,245 18,280 0.2 September .....: 9,368 1,857 17,395 October .......: 9,367 1,908 17,873 November ......: 9,358 1,854 17,348 December ......: 9,353 1,941 18,155 : Annual ........: 9,399 23,149 217,575 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ - Represents zero. 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 24 Selected States: August 2018 and 2019 [May not add due to rounding] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ State :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : from : : : : : : : 2018 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : Arizona .........: 206 193 1,835 1,840 378 355 -6.1 California ......: 1,734 1,728 1,905 1,940 3,303 3,352 1.5 Colorado ........: 178 187 2,210 2,200 393 411 4.6 Florida .........: 119 115 1,515 1,565 180 180 - Georgia .........: 79 80 1,760 1,740 139 139 - Idaho ...........: 610 625 2,170 2,180 1,324 1,363 2.9 Illinois ........: 90 83 1,675 1,670 151 139 -7.9 Indiana .........: 184 175 1,880 1,895 346 332 -4.0 Iowa ............: 220 216 1,995 2,015 439 435 -0.9 Kansas ..........: 160 162 1,970 1,980 315 321 1.9 : Michigan ........: 423 425 2,240 2,265 948 963 1.6 Minnesota .......: 451 447 1,860 1,885 839 843 0.5 New Mexico ......: 328 323 2,100 2,100 689 678 -1.6 New York ........: 622 627 2,055 2,060 1,278 1,292 1.1 Ohio ............: 258 250 1,790 1,830 462 458 -0.9 Oregon ..........: 122 124 1,760 1,780 215 221 2.8 Pennsylvania ....: 519 485 1,700 1,710 882 829 -6.0 South Dakota ....: 121 123 1,915 1,935 232 238 2.6 Texas ...........: 540 565 2,035 2,035 1,099 1,150 4.6 Utah ............: 101 97 2,000 2,010 202 195 -3.5 : Vermont .........: 127 126 1,785 1,800 227 227 - Virginia ........: 83 74 1,585 1,575 132 117 -11.4 Washington ......: 277 281 2,075 2,085 575 586 1.9 Wisconsin .......: 1,274 1,267 2,060 2,060 2,624 2,610 -0.5 : 24-State Total ..: 8,826 8,778 1,968 1,986 17,372 17,434 0.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Represents zero. 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 24 Selected States: July 2018 and 2019 [May not add due to rounding] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : from : : : : : : : 2018 :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : Arizona .......: 206 194 1,895 1,900 390 369 -5.4 California ....: 1,734 1,728 1,900 1,955 3,295 3,378 2.5 Colorado ......: 177 187 2,215 2,205 392 412 5.1 Florida .......: 119 115 1,580 1,670 188 192 2.1 Georgia .......: 81 81 1,770 1,765 143 143 - Idaho .........: 610 625 2,175 2,190 1,327 1,369 3.2 Illinois ......: 92 83 1,680 1,685 155 140 -9.7 Indiana .......: 184 175 1,890 1,890 348 331 -4.9 Iowa ..........: 220 216 1,995 1,990 439 430 -2.1 Kansas ........: 159 162 1,970 1,970 313 319 1.9 : Michigan ......: 423 425 2,240 2,255 948 958 1.1 Minnesota .....: 452 447 1,860 1,895 841 847 0.7 New Mexico ....: 328 323 2,140 2,155 702 696 -0.9 New York ......: 622 627 2,065 2,050 1,284 1,285 0.1 Ohio ..........: 260 248 1,795 1,830 467 454 -2.8 Oregon ........: 121 124 1,790 1,805 217 224 3.2 Pennsylvania ..: 520 485 1,730 1,715 900 832 -7.6 South Dakota ..: 121 123 1,900 1,920 230 236 2.6 Texas .........: 538 565 2,050 2,065 1,103 1,167 5.8 Utah ..........: 101 97 2,000 2,010 202 195 -3.5 : Vermont .......: 127 126 1,770 1,810 225 228 1.3 Virginia ......: 83 74 1,610 1,600 134 118 -11.9 Washington ....: 277 281 2,095 2,120 580 596 2.8 Wisconsin .....: 1,274 1,268 2,065 2,050 2,631 2,599 -1.2 : 24-State Total : 8,829 8,779 1,977 1,995 17,454 17,518 0.4 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Represents zero. 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies such as Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) Dairy Market News. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January Cattle Survey. Estimation Procedures: Regional Field Offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, milk per cow, and number of milk cows are subject to revision the following month after initial publication for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, administrative data from Federal Market Orders, State Departments of Agriculture, or other sources are the main basis for revisions. However, administrative data for all States may not be available in time for these revisions. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table below. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the 24 State milk production estimates over the past 19 months is 0.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 17.4 billion pounds by more than 0.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.2 percent. Reliability of Monthly Milk Production Estimates [Based on data for the past 19 months. 24-State data not available prior to 2018] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ----- number ----- : : Milk production ..............: 0.1 0.2 20 2 59 14 5 : All Milk cows ................: 0.2 0.3 10 0 31 14 3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@usda.gov. Travis Averill, Chief, Livestock Branch ......... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (202) 690-8632 Holly Brenize - Sheep and Goats .............. (202) 720-0585 Donnie Fike - Dairy Products ................. (202) 720-4448 Heidi Lanouette - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ..... (202) 720-3040 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Seth Riggins - Hogs and Pigs ................. (202) 720-3106 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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