Milk Production ISSN: 1949-1557 Released August 19, 2016, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). July Milk Production up 1.4 Percent Milk production in the 23 major States during July totaled 16.8 billion pounds, up 1.4 percent from July 2015. June revised production, at 16.7 billion pounds, was up 1.6 percent from June 2015. The June revision represented an increase of 9 million pounds or 0.1 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,946 pounds for July, 24 pounds above July 2015. This is the highest production per cow for the month of July since the 23 State series began in 2003. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.65 million head, 19,000 head more than July 2015, and 2,000 head more than June 2016. July Milk Production in the United States up 1.4 Percent Milk production in the United States during July totaled 17.9 billion pounds, up 1.4 percent from July 2015. Production per cow in the United States averaged 1,920 pounds for July, 23 pounds above July 2015. The number of milk cows on farms in the United States was 9.33 million head, 18,000 head more than July 2015, and 2,000 head more than June 2016. Milk Cows and Production by Quarter - United States: 2015-2016 [May not add due to rounding] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : from : : : : : : : 2015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head ---- pounds ---- million pounds percent : January-March ...: 9,309 9,319 5,579 5,692 51,936 53,041 2.1 April-June ......: 9,321 9,328 5,763 5,828 53,720 54,360 1.2 July-September ..: 9,315 5,549 51,685 October-December : 9,321 5,503 51,292 : Annual ..........: 9,317 22,393 208,633 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production By Month - 23 Selected States: 2015-2016 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Milk cows1/ : Milk per cow2/ : Milk production2/ :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : from : : : : : : : 2015 :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : January .......: 8,621 8,627 1,919 1,922 16,544 16,581 0.2 February ......: 8,621 8,633 1,754 1,833 15,124 15,824 4.6 March .........: 8,623 8,644 1,962 1,993 16,918 17,227 1.8 April .........: 8,627 8,644 1,929 1,947 16,641 16,830 1.1 May ...........: 8,633 8,644 1,998 2,019 17,246 17,448 1.2 June ..........: 8,630 8,647 1,900 1,927 16,397 16,664 1.6 July ..........: 8,630 8,649 1,922 1,946 16,589 16,828 1.4 August ........: 8,633 1,894 16,349 September .....: 8,636 1,807 15,609 October .......: 8,638 1,860 16,063 November ......: 8,640 1,811 15,646 December ......: 8,638 1,896 16,381 : Annual ........: 8,631 22,652 195,507 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production By Month - United States: 2015-2016 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Milk cows1/ : Milk per cow2/ : Milk production2/ :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : from : : : : : : : 2015 :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : January .......: 9,308 9,310 1,900 1,903 17,685 17,718 0.2 February ......: 9,308 9,317 1,737 1,815 16,166 16,912 4.6 March .........: 9,311 9,329 1,942 1,974 18,085 18,411 1.8 April .........: 9,316 9,327 1,909 1,925 17,788 17,959 1.0 May ...........: 9,324 9,327 1,976 1,997 18,428 18,622 1.1 June ..........: 9,323 9,330 1,878 1,906 17,504 17,779 1.6 July ..........: 9,314 9,332 1,897 1,920 17,665 17,915 1.4 August ........: 9,315 1,868 17,403 September .....: 9,317 1,784 16,617 October .......: 9,320 1,838 17,130 November ......: 9,322 1,790 16,689 December ......: 9,320 1,875 17,473 : Annual ........: 9,317 22,393 208,633 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 23 Selected States: July 2015 and 2016 [May not add due to rounding] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ State :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : from : : : : : : : 2015 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : Arizona .........: 195 198 1,985 1,980 387 392 1.3 California ......: 1,778 1,768 1,915 1,910 3,405 3,377 -0.8 Colorado ........: 145 150 2,220 2,240 322 336 4.3 Florida .........: 125 121 1,715 1,670 214 202 -5.6 Idaho ...........: 586 595 2,095 2,140 1,228 1,273 3.7 Illinois ........: 94 94 1,650 1,660 155 156 0.6 Indiana .........: 181 184 1,850 1,850 335 340 1.5 Iowa ............: 211 211 1,915 1,960 404 414 2.5 Kansas ..........: 143 145 1,845 1,870 264 271 2.7 Michigan ........: 409 420 2,170 2,210 888 928 4.5 : Minnesota .......: 460 462 1,760 1,780 810 822 1.5 New Mexico ......: 323 310 2,040 2,100 659 651 -1.2 New York ........: 619 620 1,970 2,045 1,219 1,268 4.0 Ohio ............: 266 266 1,770 1,780 471 473 0.4 Oregon ..........: 122 125 1,745 1,750 213 219 2.8 Pennsylvania ....: 530 530 1,730 1,735 917 920 0.3 South Dakota ....: 107 115 1,895 1,870 203 215 5.9 Texas ...........: 462 471 1,850 1,895 855 893 4.4 Utah ............: 96 92 2,010 1,990 193 183 -5.2 Vermont .........: 132 130 1,740 1,770 230 230 - : Virginia ........: 91 90 1,630 1,590 148 143 -3.4 Washington ......: 275 274 2,035 2,045 560 560 - Wisconsin .......: 1,280 1,278 1,960 2,005 2,509 2,562 2.1 : 23-State Total ..: 8,630 8,649 1,922 1,946 16,589 16,828 1.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Represents zero. 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 23 Selected States: June 2015 and 2016 [May not add due to rounding] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows1/ : Milk per cow2/ : Milk production 2/ :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : from : : : : : : : 2015 :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : Arizona .......: 195 198 2,045 2,050 399 406 1.8 California ....: 1,778 1,769 1,910 1,900 3,396 3,361 -1.0 Colorado ......: 145 150 2,140 2,160 310 324 4.5 Florida .......: 125 122 1,790 1,730 224 211 -5.8 Idaho .........: 586 593 2,040 2,090 1,195 1,239 3.7 Illinois ......: 94 94 1,690 1,700 159 160 0.6 Indiana .......: 181 184 1,825 1,830 330 337 2.1 Iowa ..........: 212 211 1,910 1,960 405 414 2.2 Kansas ........: 143 145 1,810 1,855 259 269 3.9 Michigan ......: 408 419 2,135 2,200 871 922 5.9 : Minnesota .....: 460 462 1,730 1,755 796 811 1.9 New Mexico ....: 323 310 2,035 2,045 657 634 -3.5 New York ......: 618 620 1,940 2,015 1,199 1,249 4.2 Ohio ..........: 266 266 1,730 1,750 460 466 1.3 Oregon ........: 124 125 1,735 1,735 215 217 0.9 Pennsylvania ..: 530 530 1,715 1,725 909 914 0.6 South Dakota ..: 106 115 1,860 1,820 197 209 6.1 Texas .........: 462 468 1,835 1,880 848 880 3.8 Utah ..........: 96 92 1,990 1,950 191 179 -6.3 Vermont .......: 132 131 1,710 1,750 226 229 1.3 : Virginia ......: 91 90 1,620 1,590 147 143 -2.7 Washington ....: 275 275 2,010 2,010 553 553 - Wisconsin .....: 1,280 1,278 1,915 1,985 2,451 2,537 3.5 : 23-State Total : 8,630 8,647 1,900 1,927 16,397 16,664 1.6 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Represents zero. 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January Cattle Survey. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, milk per cow, and number of milk cows are subject to revision the following month after initial publication for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, administrative data from Federal Market Orders, State Departments of Agriculture, or other sources are the main basis for revisions. However, administrative data for all States may not be available in time for these revisions. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table below. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the 23 State milk production estimates over the past 24 months is 0.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 16.8 billion pounds by more than 0.2 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.3 percent. Reliability of Monthly Milk Production Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ----- number ----- : : Milk production ..............: 0.2 0.3 22 2 71 18 6 : All Milk cows ................: 0.0 0.1 3 0 8 16 3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ........... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (202) 720-3240 Doug Bounds - Hogs and Pigs .................. (202) 720-3106 David Colwell - Sheep and Goats .............. (202) 720-8784 Donnie Fike - Dairy Products ................. (202) 690-3236 Michael Klamm - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ....... (202) 720-3040 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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