Milk Production ISSN: 1949-1557 Released August 18, 2017, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). July Milk Production up 1.9 Percent Milk production in the 23 major States during July totaled 17.2 billion pounds, up 1.9 percent from July 2016. June revised production, at 16.9 billion pounds, was up 1.7 percent from June 2016. The June revision represented an increase of 5 million pounds or less than 0.1 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,969 pounds for July, 21 pounds above July 2016. This is the highest production per cow for the month of July since the 23 State series began in 2003. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.73 million head, 72,000 head more than July 2016, but 1,000 head less than June 2017. July Milk Production in the United States up 1.8 Percent Milk production in the United States during July totaled 18.2 billion pounds, up 1.8 percent from July 2016. Production per cow in the United States averaged 1,940 pounds for July, 20 pounds above July 2016. The number of milk cows on farms in the United States was 9.40 million head, 74,000 head more than July 2016, but 1,000 head less than June 2017. Milk Cows and Production by Quarter - United States: 2016-2017 [May not add due to rounding. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2016 : 2017 : 2016 : 2017 : 2016 : 2017 : from : : : : : : : 2016 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head ---- pounds ---- million pounds percent : January-March ...: 9,312 9,370 5,691 5,717 52,998 53,568 1.1 April-June ......: 9,323 9,399 5,828 5,885 54,331 55,313 1.8 July-September ..: 9,331 5,636 52,590 October-December : 9,344 5,620 52,517 : Annual ..........: 9,328 22,774 212,436 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production By Month - 23 Selected States: 2016-2017 [Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Milk cows1/ : Milk per cow2/ : Milk production2/ :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2016 : 2017 : 2016 : 2017 : 2016 : 2017 : from : : : : : : : 2016 :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : January .......: 8,621 8,691 1,920 1,955 16,553 16,995 2.7 February ......: 8,628 8,694 1,833 1,797 15,817 15,627 -1.2 March .........: 8,637 8,711 1,994 2,015 17,222 17,554 1.9 April .........: 8,638 8,720 1,947 1,971 16,817 17,189 2.2 May ...........: 8,641 8,727 2,019 2,036 17,442 17,769 1.9 June ..........: 8,648 8,731 1,926 1,940 16,654 16,935 1.7 July ..........: 8,658 8,730 1,948 1,969 16,863 17,189 1.9 August ........: 8,666 1,922 16,659 September .....: 8,664 1,845 15,989 October .......: 8,668 1,904 16,503 November ......: 8,675 1,852 16,066 December ......: 8,683 1,932 16,777 : Annual ........: 8,652 23,042 199,362 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production By Month - United States: 2016-2017 [Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Milk cows1/ : Milk per cow2/ : Milk production2/ :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2016 : 2017 : 2016 : 2017 : 2016 : 2017 : from : : : : : : : 2016 :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : January .......: 9,304 9,362 1,902 1,938 17,693 18,145 2.6 February ......: 9,311 9,365 1,815 1,782 16,904 16,684 -1.3 March .........: 9,321 9,382 1,974 1,997 18,401 18,739 1.8 April .........: 9,321 9,392 1,925 1,950 17,947 18,319 2.1 May ...........: 9,322 9,400 1,997 2,015 18,613 18,942 1.8 June ..........: 9,326 9,404 1,906 1,920 17,771 18,052 1.6 July ..........: 9,329 9,403 1,920 1,940 17,908 18,238 1.8 August ........: 9,334 1,895 17,692 September .....: 9,331 1,821 16,990 October .......: 9,335 1,882 17,565 November ......: 9,344 1,830 17,100 December ......: 9,354 1,908 17,852 : Annual ........: 9,328 22,774 212,436 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 23 Selected States: July 2016 and 2017 [May not add due to rounding] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ State :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change : 2016 : 2017 : 2016 : 2017 : 2016 : 2017 : from : : : : : : : 2016 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : Arizona .........: 196 203 1,940 1,990 380 404 6.3 California ......: 1,760 1,747 1,920 1,930 3,379 3,372 -0.2 Colorado ........: 152 160 2,225 2,255 338 361 6.8 Florida .........: 121 124 1,645 1,635 199 203 2.0 Idaho ...........: 599 601 2,165 2,155 1,297 1,295 -0.2 Illinois ........: 94 93 1,660 1,700 156 158 1.3 Indiana .........: 184 186 1,870 1,870 344 348 1.2 Iowa ............: 214 217 1,985 2,000 425 434 2.1 Kansas ..........: 145 151 1,880 1,880 273 284 4.0 Michigan ........: 420 427 2,220 2,245 932 959 2.9 : Minnesota .......: 462 458 1,765 1,835 815 840 3.1 New Mexico ......: 313 332 2,080 2,125 651 706 8.4 New York ........: 620 624 2,050 2,035 1,271 1,270 -0.1 Ohio ............: 266 262 1,770 1,790 471 469 -0.4 Oregon ..........: 125 124 1,785 1,745 223 216 -3.1 Pennsylvania ....: 530 525 1,720 1,730 912 908 -0.4 South Dakota ....: 115 118 1,870 1,895 215 224 4.2 Texas ...........: 480 515 1,860 1,990 893 1,025 14.8 Utah ............: 90 96 1,970 2,020 177 194 9.6 Vermont .........: 130 129 1,770 1,800 230 232 0.9 : Virginia ........: 89 87 1,585 1,600 141 139 -1.4 Washington ......: 275 273 2,080 2,050 572 560 -2.1 Wisconsin .......: 1,278 1,278 2,010 2,025 2,569 2,588 0.7 : 23-State Total ..: 8,658 8,730 1,948 1,969 16,863 17,189 1.9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 23 Selected States: June 2016 and 2017 [May not add due to rounding] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change : 2016 : 2017 : 2016 : 2017 : 2016 : 2017 : from : : : : : : : 2016 :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : Arizona .......: 196 203 2,030 2,090 398 424 6.5 California ....: 1,763 1,749 1,905 1,880 3,359 3,288 -2.1 Colorado ......: 150 160 2,140 2,170 321 347 8.1 Florida .......: 122 124 1,730 1,725 211 214 1.4 Idaho .........: 594 601 2,090 2,090 1,241 1,256 1.2 Illinois ......: 94 93 1,670 1,720 157 160 1.9 Indiana .......: 184 186 1,830 1,860 337 346 2.7 Iowa ..........: 213 217 1,965 1,975 419 429 2.4 Kansas ........: 145 151 1,855 1,865 269 282 4.8 Michigan ......: 419 427 2,200 2,220 922 948 2.8 : Minnesota .....: 462 458 1,755 1,805 811 827 2.0 New Mexico ....: 310 332 2,045 2,095 634 696 9.8 New York ......: 620 624 2,015 2,010 1,249 1,254 0.4 Ohio ..........: 266 262 1,750 1,785 466 468 0.4 Oregon ........: 125 124 1,760 1,725 220 214 -2.7 Pennsylvania ..: 530 525 1,710 1,725 906 906 - South Dakota ..: 115 118 1,820 1,840 209 217 3.8 Texas .........: 475 515 1,860 1,975 884 1,017 15.0 Utah ..........: 91 95 1,970 2,000 179 190 6.1 Vermont .......: 131 129 1,750 1,765 229 228 -0.4 : Virginia ......: 90 87 1,590 1,625 143 141 -1.4 Washington ....: 275 273 2,010 2,025 553 553 - Wisconsin .....: 1,278 1,278 1,985 1,980 2,537 2,530 -0.3 : 23-State Total : 8,648 8,731 1,926 1,940 16,654 16,935 1.7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Represents zero. 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January Cattle Survey. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, milk per cow, and number of milk cows are subject to revision the following month after initial publication for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, administrative data from Federal Market Orders, State Departments of Agriculture, or other sources are the main basis for revisions. However, administrative data for all States may not be available in time for these revisions. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table below. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the 23 State milk production estimates over the past 24 months is 0.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 17.2 billion pounds by more than 0.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.2 percent. Reliability of Monthly Milk Production Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ----- number ----- : : Milk production ..............: 0.1 0.2 17 1 41 14 10 : All Milk cows ................: 0.1 0.1 4 0 10 8 14 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov. Vacant, Chief, Livestock Branch ................. (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (202) 720-3240 David Colwell - Sheep and Goats .............. (202) 720-8784 Donnie Fike - Dairy Products ................. (202) 690-3236 Michael Klamm - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ....... (202) 720-3040 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Seth Riggins - Hogs and Pigs ................. (202) 720-3106 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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