Milk Production ISSN: 1949-1557 Released September 20, 2016, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). August Milk Production up 1.9 Percent Milk production in the 23 major States during August totaled 16.7 billion pounds, up 1.9 percent from August 2015. July revised production, at 16.9 billion pounds, was up 1.7 percent from July 2015. The July revision represented an increase of 48 million pounds or 0.3 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,920 pounds for August, 26 pounds above August 2015. This is the highest production per cow for the month of August since the 23 State series began in 2003. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.68 million head, 43,000 head more than August 2015, and 15,000 head more than July 2016. August Milk Production in the United States up 1.9 Percent Milk production in the United States during August totaled 17.7 billion pounds, up 1.9 percent from August 2015. Production per cow in the United States averaged 1,895 pounds for August, 27 pounds above August 2015. The number of milk cows on farms in the United States was 9.36 million head, 45,000 head more than August 2015, and 16,000 head more than July 2016. Milk Cows and Production by Quarter - United States: 2015-2016 [May not add due to rounding] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : from : : : : : : : 2015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head ---- pounds ---- million pounds percent : January-March ...: 9,309 9,319 5,579 5,692 51,936 53,041 2.1 April-June ......: 9,321 9,328 5,763 5,828 53,720 54,360 1.2 July-September ..: 9,315 5,549 51,685 October-December : 9,321 5,503 51,292 : Annual ..........: 9,317 22,393 208,633 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production By Month - 23 Selected States: 2015-2016 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Milk cows1/ : Milk per cow2/ : Milk production2/ :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : from : : : : : : : 2015 :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : January .......: 8,621 8,627 1,919 1,922 16,544 16,581 0.2 February ......: 8,621 8,633 1,754 1,833 15,124 15,824 4.6 March .........: 8,623 8,644 1,962 1,993 16,918 17,227 1.8 April .........: 8,627 8,644 1,929 1,947 16,641 16,830 1.1 May ...........: 8,633 8,644 1,998 2,019 17,246 17,448 1.2 June ..........: 8,630 8,647 1,900 1,927 16,397 16,664 1.6 July ..........: 8,630 8,661 1,922 1,949 16,589 16,876 1.7 August ........: 8,633 8,676 1,894 1,920 16,349 16,661 1.9 September .....: 8,636 1,807 15,609 October .......: 8,638 1,860 16,063 November ......: 8,640 1,811 15,646 December ......: 8,638 1,896 16,381 : Annual ........: 8,631 22,652 195,507 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production By Month - United States: 2015-2016 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Milk cows1/ : Milk per cow2/ : Milk production2/ :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : from : : : : : : : 2015 :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : January .......: 9,308 9,310 1,900 1,903 17,685 17,718 0.2 February ......: 9,308 9,317 1,737 1,815 16,166 16,912 4.6 March .........: 9,311 9,329 1,942 1,974 18,085 18,411 1.8 April .........: 9,316 9,327 1,909 1,925 17,788 17,959 1.0 May ...........: 9,324 9,327 1,976 1,997 18,428 18,622 1.1 June ..........: 9,323 9,330 1,878 1,906 17,504 17,779 1.6 July ..........: 9,314 9,344 1,897 1,922 17,665 17,963 1.7 August ........: 9,315 9,360 1,868 1,895 17,403 17,735 1.9 September .....: 9,317 1,784 16,617 October .......: 9,320 1,838 17,130 November ......: 9,322 1,790 16,689 December ......: 9,320 1,875 17,473 : Annual ........: 9,317 22,393 208,633 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 23 Selected States: August 2015 and 2016 [May not add due to rounding] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ State :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : from : : : : : : : 2015 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : Arizona .........: 195 197 1,870 1,870 365 368 0.8 California ......: 1,778 1,767 1,880 1,860 3,343 3,287 -1.7 Colorado ........: 145 153 2,210 2,235 320 342 6.9 Florida .........: 125 120 1,555 1,500 194 180 -7.2 Idaho ...........: 586 599 2,090 2,145 1,225 1,285 4.9 Illinois ........: 94 93 1,600 1,590 150 148 -1.3 Indiana .........: 181 184 1,860 1,870 337 344 2.1 Iowa ............: 211 211 1,915 1,970 404 416 3.0 Kansas ..........: 143 145 1,840 1,860 263 270 2.7 Michigan ........: 410 422 2,140 2,215 877 935 6.6 : Minnesota .......: 460 462 1,730 1,735 796 802 0.8 New Mexico ......: 323 317 2,010 2,080 649 659 1.5 New York ........: 619 620 1,945 2,005 1,204 1,243 3.2 Ohio ............: 266 266 1,750 1,765 466 469 0.6 Oregon ..........: 123 125 1,740 1,760 214 220 2.8 Pennsylvania ....: 530 529 1,700 1,695 901 897 -0.4 South Dakota ....: 107 115 1,915 1,880 205 216 5.4 Texas ...........: 462 487 1,790 1,885 827 918 11.0 Utah ............: 96 92 1,990 2,000 191 184 -3.7 Vermont .........: 132 130 1,700 1,745 224 227 1.3 : Virginia ........: 91 89 1,595 1,560 145 139 -4.1 Washington ......: 276 275 2,050 2,070 566 569 0.5 Wisconsin .......: 1,280 1,278 1,940 1,990 2,483 2,543 2.4 : 23-State Total ..: 8,633 8,676 1,894 1,920 16,349 16,661 1.9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 23 Selected States: July 2015 and 2016 [May not add due to rounding] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows1/ : Milk per cow2/ : Milk production 2/ :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : from : : : : : : : 2015 :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : Arizona .......: 195 197 1,985 1,970 387 388 0.3 California ....: 1,778 1,768 1,915 1,910 3,405 3,377 -0.8 Colorado ......: 145 152 2,220 2,235 322 340 5.6 Florida .......: 125 121 1,715 1,645 214 199 -7.0 Idaho .........: 586 599 2,095 2,165 1,228 1,297 5.6 Illinois ......: 94 94 1,650 1,660 155 156 0.6 Indiana .......: 181 184 1,850 1,850 335 340 1.5 Iowa ..........: 211 211 1,915 1,980 404 418 3.5 Kansas ........: 143 145 1,845 1,880 264 273 3.4 Michigan ......: 409 420 2,170 2,220 888 932 5.0 : Minnesota .....: 460 462 1,760 1,765 810 815 0.6 New Mexico ....: 323 313 2,040 2,080 659 651 -1.2 New York ......: 619 620 1,970 2,050 1,219 1,271 4.3 Ohio ..........: 266 266 1,770 1,780 471 473 0.4 Oregon ........: 122 125 1,745 1,785 213 223 4.7 Pennsylvania ..: 530 530 1,730 1,735 917 920 0.3 South Dakota ..: 107 115 1,895 1,870 203 215 5.9 Texas .........: 462 475 1,850 1,880 855 893 4.4 Utah ..........: 96 92 2,010 1,990 193 183 -5.2 Vermont .......: 132 130 1,740 1,770 230 230 - : Virginia ......: 91 89 1,630 1,585 148 141 -4.7 Washington ....: 275 275 2,035 2,080 560 572 2.1 Wisconsin .....: 1,280 1,278 1,960 2,010 2,509 2,569 2.4 : 23-State Total : 8,630 8,661 1,922 1,949 16,589 16,876 1.7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Represents zero. 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January Cattle Survey. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, milk per cow, and number of milk cows are subject to revision the following month after initial publication for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, administrative data from Federal Market Orders, State Departments of Agriculture, or other sources are the main basis for revisions. However, administrative data for all States may not be available in time for these revisions. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table below. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the 23 State milk production estimates over the past 24 months is 0.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 16.7 billion pounds by more than 0.2 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.3 percent. Reliability of Monthly Milk Production Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ----- number ----- : : Milk production ..............: 0.2 0.3 23 2 71 19 5 : All Milk cows ................: 0.1 0.1 3 0 12 16 3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ........... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (202) 720-3240 Doug Bounds - Hogs and Pigs .................. (202) 720-3106 David Colwell - Sheep and Goats .............. (202) 720-8784 Donnie Fike - Dairy Products ................. (202) 690-3236 Michael Klamm - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ....... (202) 720-3040 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. To set-up this free subscription, visit www.nass.usda.gov and click on "National" or "State" in upper right corner above "search" box to create an account and select the reports you would like to receive. For more information on NASS surveys and reports, call the NASS Agricultural Statistics Hotline at (800) 727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: nass@nass.usda.gov. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination against its customers, employees, and applicants for employment on the basis of race, color, national origin, age, disability, sex, gender identity, religion, reprisal, and where applicable, political beliefs, marital status, familial or parental status, sexual orientation, or all or part of an individual's income is derived from any public assistance program, or protected genetic information in employment or in any program or activity conducted or funded by the Department. (Not all prohibited bases will apply to all programs and/or employment activities.) If you wish to file a Civil Rights program complaint of discrimination, complete the USDA Program Discrimination Complaint Form (PDF), found online at http://www.ascr.usda.gov/complaint_filing_cust.html, or at any USDA office, or call (866) 632-9992 to request the form. You may also write a letter containing all of the information requested in the form. Send your completed complaint form or letter to us by mail at U.S. Department of Agriculture, Director, Office of Adjudication, 1400 Independence Avenue, S.W., Washington, D.C. 20250-9410, by fax (202) 690-7442 or email at program.intake@usda.gov.