Milk Production ISSN: 1949-1557 Released October 20, 2016, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). September Milk Production up 2.3 Percent Milk production in the 23 major States during September totaled 16.0 billion pounds, up 2.3 percent from September 2015. August revised production at 16.7 billion pounds, was up 1.9 percent from August 2015. The August revision represented a decrease of 3 million pounds or less than 0.1 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,842 pounds for September, 35 pounds above September 2015. This is the highest production per cow for the month of September since the 23 State series began in 2003. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.67 million head, 36,000 head more than September 2015, but 2,000 head less than August 2016. July-September Milk Production up 1.7 Percent Milk production in the United States during the July - September quarter totaled 52.6 billion pounds, up 1.7 percent from the July - September quarter last year. The average number of milk cows in the United States during the quarter was 9.34 million head, 9,000 head more than the April - June quarter, and 21,000 head more than the same period last year. Milk Cows and Production by Quarter - United States: 2015-2016 [May not add due to rounding] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : from : : : : : : : 2015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head ---- pounds ---- million pounds percent : January-March ...: 9,309 9,319 5,579 5,692 51,936 53,041 2.1 April-June ......: 9,321 9,327 5,763 5,828 53,720 54,360 1.2 July-September ..: 9,315 9,336 5,549 5,632 51,685 52,585 1.7 October-December : 9,321 5,503 51,292 : Annual ..........: 9,317 22,393 208,633 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production By Month - 23 Selected States: 2015-2016 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Milk cows1/ : Milk per cow2/ : Milk production2/ :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : from : : : : : : : 2015 :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : January .......: 8,621 8,627 1,919 1,922 16,544 16,581 0.2 February ......: 8,621 8,633 1,754 1,833 15,124 15,824 4.6 March .........: 8,623 8,644 1,962 1,993 16,918 17,227 1.8 April .........: 8,627 8,644 1,929 1,947 16,641 16,830 1.1 May ...........: 8,633 8,644 1,998 2,019 17,246 17,448 1.2 June ..........: 8,630 8,647 1,900 1,927 16,397 16,664 1.6 July ..........: 8,630 8,661 1,922 1,949 16,589 16,876 1.7 August ........: 8,633 8,674 1,894 1,920 16,349 16,658 1.9 September .....: 8,636 8,672 1,807 1,842 15,609 15,975 2.3 October .......: 8,638 1,860 16,063 November ......: 8,640 1,811 15,646 December ......: 8,638 1,896 16,381 : Annual ........: 8,631 22,652 195,507 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production By Month - United States: 2015-2016 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Milk cows1/ : Milk per cow2/ : Milk production2/ :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : from : : : : : : : 2015 :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : January .......: 9,308 9,310 1,900 1,903 17,685 17,718 0.2 February ......: 9,308 9,317 1,737 1,815 16,166 16,912 4.6 March .........: 9,311 9,329 1,942 1,974 18,085 18,411 1.8 April .........: 9,316 9,327 1,909 1,926 17,788 17,964 1.0 May ...........: 9,324 9,327 1,976 1,997 18,428 18,622 1.1 June ..........: 9,323 9,328 1,878 1,905 17,504 17,774 1.5 July ..........: 9,314 9,329 1,897 1,921 17,665 17,925 1.5 August ........: 9,315 9,341 1,868 1,894 17,403 17,693 1.7 September .....: 9,317 9,338 1,784 1,817 16,617 16,967 2.1 October .......: 9,320 1,838 17,130 November ......: 9,322 1,790 16,689 December ......: 9,320 1,875 17,473 : Annual ........: 9,317 22,393 208,633 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 23 Selected States: September 2015 and 2016 [May not add due to rounding] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ State :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : from : : : : : : : 2015 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : Arizona .........: 195 198 1,795 1,790 350 354 1.1 California ......: 1,777 1,766 1,785 1,795 3,172 3,170 -0.1 Colorado ........: 145 152 2,145 2,140 311 325 4.5 Florida .........: 125 120 1,450 1,465 181 176 -2.8 Idaho ...........: 587 599 1,995 2,050 1,171 1,228 4.9 Illinois ........: 94 93 1,520 1,530 143 142 -0.7 Indiana .........: 183 184 1,780 1,805 326 332 1.8 Iowa ............: 210 211 1,810 1,880 380 397 4.5 Kansas ..........: 143 146 1,760 1,835 252 268 6.3 Michigan ........: 410 422 2,015 2,070 826 874 5.8 : Minnesota .......: 460 461 1,635 1,670 752 770 2.4 New Mexico ......: 323 318 1,960 1,965 633 625 -1.3 New York ........: 620 620 1,860 1,950 1,153 1,209 4.9 Ohio ............: 266 264 1,660 1,675 442 442 - Oregon ..........: 125 125 1,685 1,680 211 210 -0.5 Pennsylvania ....: 530 527 1,615 1,645 856 867 1.3 South Dakota ....: 108 115 1,825 1,800 197 207 5.1 Texas ...........: 462 488 1,785 1,780 825 869 5.3 Utah ............: 96 92 1,875 1,890 180 174 -3.3 Vermont .........: 131 130 1,625 1,690 213 220 3.3 : Virginia ........: 90 89 1,545 1,510 139 134 -3.6 Washington ......: 277 275 1,935 1,975 536 543 1.3 Wisconsin .......: 1,279 1,277 1,845 1,910 2,360 2,439 3.3 : 23-State Total ..: 8,636 8,672 1,807 1,842 15,609 15,975 2.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Represents zero. 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 23 Selected States: August 2015 and 2016 [May not add due to rounding] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows1/ : Milk per cow2/ : Milk production 2/ :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : from : : : : : : : 2015 :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : Arizona .......: 195 197 1,870 1,855 365 365 - California ....: 1,778 1,767 1,880 1,860 3,343 3,287 -1.7 Colorado ......: 145 152 2,210 2,235 320 340 6.3 Florida .......: 125 120 1,555 1,585 194 190 -2.1 Idaho .........: 586 599 2,090 2,155 1,225 1,291 5.4 Illinois ......: 94 93 1,600 1,590 150 148 -1.3 Indiana .......: 181 184 1,860 1,870 337 344 2.1 Iowa ..........: 211 211 1,915 1,970 404 416 3.0 Kansas ........: 143 146 1,840 1,905 263 278 5.7 Michigan ......: 410 422 2,140 2,180 877 920 4.9 : Minnesota .....: 460 462 1,730 1,745 796 806 1.3 New Mexico ....: 323 317 2,010 2,080 649 659 1.5 New York ......: 619 620 1,945 2,015 1,204 1,249 3.7 Ohio ..........: 266 264 1,750 1,730 466 457 -1.9 Oregon ........: 123 125 1,740 1,745 214 218 1.9 Pennsylvania ..: 530 529 1,700 1,695 901 897 -0.4 South Dakota ..: 107 115 1,915 1,880 205 216 5.4 Texas .........: 462 487 1,790 1,885 827 918 11.0 Utah ..........: 96 92 1,990 2,000 191 184 -3.7 Vermont .......: 132 130 1,700 1,745 224 227 1.3 : Virginia ......: 91 89 1,595 1,540 145 137 -5.5 Washington ....: 276 275 2,050 2,065 566 568 0.4 Wisconsin .....: 1,280 1,278 1,940 1,990 2,483 2,543 2.4 : 23-State Total : 8,633 8,674 1,894 1,920 16,349 16,658 1.9 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Represents zero. 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - States and United States: Revised April - June 2015 and 2016 [May not add due to rounding] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : April - June milk cows1/ : April - June milk production2/ :------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ State : : : : : Change : : : : : from : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head million pounds million pounds percent : Alabama .......: 8.0 7.0 28.0 26.0 -7.1 Alaska ........: 0.3 0.3 0.9 0.9 - Arizona .......: 195.0 198.0 1,259.0 1,281.0 1.7 Arkansas ......: 7.0 6.5 26.0 22.0 -15.4 California ....: 1,778.0 1,771.0 10,652.0 10,394.0 -2.4 Colorado ......: 145.0 149.0 944.0 972.0 3.0 Connecticut ...: 19.5 19.0 102.0 105.0 2.9 Delaware ......: 5.0 5.0 25.9 25.7 -0.8 Florida .......: 125.0 123.0 701.0 671.0 -4.3 Georgia .......: 82.0 85.0 469.0 483.0 3.0 : Hawaii ........: 2.3 2.5 10.0 9.7 -3.0 Idaho .........: 586.0 592.0 3,602.0 3,692.0 2.5 Illinois ......: 95.0 94.0 498.0 498.0 - Indiana .......: 181.0 184.0 1,024.0 1,049.0 2.4 Iowa ..........: 212.0 211.0 1,243.0 1,272.0 2.3 Kansas ........: 144.0 145.0 822.0 834.0 1.5 Kentucky ......: 62.0 58.0 289.0 284.0 -1.7 Louisiana .....: 14.0 12.5 52.0 49.0 -5.8 Maine .........: 30.0 30.0 150.0 163.0 8.7 Maryland ......: 49.0 48.0 255.0 246.0 -3.5 : Massachusetts .: 12.0 11.5 56.0 56.0 - Michigan ......: 406.0 418.0 2,612.0 2,780.0 6.4 Minnesota .....: 460.0 461.0 2,413.0 2,469.0 2.3 Mississippi ...: 12.0 10.0 47.0 40.0 -14.9 Missouri ......: 88.0 88.0 370.0 360.0 -2.7 Montana .......: 14.0 14.0 77.0 75.0 -2.6 Nebraska ......: 56.0 60.0 328.0 351.0 7.0 Nevada ........: 29.0 30.0 168.0 164.0 -2.4 New Hampshire .: 14.0 13.5 72.0 73.0 1.4 New Jersey ....: 7.0 6.5 33.0 32.0 -3.0 : New Mexico ....: 323.0 310.0 2,044.0 1,970.0 -3.6 New York ......: 618.0 620.0 3,586.0 3,760.0 4.9 North Carolina : 46.0 47.0 256.0 252.0 -1.6 North Dakota ..: 16.0 16.0 85.0 88.0 3.5 Ohio ..........: 267.0 266.0 1,409.0 1,419.0 0.7 Oklahoma ......: 40.0 38.0 191.0 185.0 -3.1 Oregon ........: 124.0 126.0 655.0 663.0 1.2 Pennsylvania ..: 530.0 530.0 2,796.0 2,809.0 0.5 Rhode Island ..: 0.9 0.8 4.0 3.7 -7.5 South Carolina : 15.0 15.0 71.0 68.0 -4.2 : South Dakota ..: 105.0 114.0 587.0 637.0 8.5 Tennessee .....: 46.0 43.0 199.0 185.0 -7.0 Texas .........: 462.0 465.0 2,656.0 2,715.0 2.2 Utah ..........: 96.0 93.0 573.0 546.0 -4.7 Vermont .......: 132.0 131.0 682.0 694.0 1.8 Virginia ......: 92.0 90.0 461.0 446.0 -3.3 Washington ....: 276.0 275.0 1,690.0 1,680.0 -0.6 West Virginia .: 9.0 9.0 37.0 36.0 -2.7 Wisconsin .....: 1,279.0 1,279.0 7,375.0 7,691.0 4.3 Wyoming .......: 6.0 6.0 34.0 34.6 1.8 : United States .: 9,321.0 9,327.0 53,720.0 54,360.0 1.2 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Represents zero. 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - States and United States: Preliminary July - September 2015 and 2016 [May not add due to rounding] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : July - September milk cows1/ : July - September milk production2/ :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : Change : : : : : from : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head million pounds million pounds percent : Alabama .......: 7.5 6.5 21.0 20.0 -4.8 Alaska ........: 0.3 0.3 0.9 0.9 - Arizona .......: 195.0 197.0 1,102.0 1,107.0 0.5 Arkansas ......: 7.0 6.0 20.0 17.0 -15.0 California ....: 1,778.0 1,767.0 9,920.0 9,834.0 -0.9 Colorado ......: 145.0 152.0 953.0 1,005.0 5.5 Connecticut ...: 19.5 19.0 98.0 100.0 2.0 Delaware ......: 5.0 5.0 23.0 21.7 -5.7 Florida .......: 125.0 120.0 589.0 565.0 -4.1 Georgia .......: 84.0 83.0 421.0 415.0 -1.4 : Hawaii ........: 2.2 2.4 8.6 8.6 - Idaho .........: 586.0 599.0 3,624.0 3,816.0 5.3 Illinois ......: 94.0 93.0 448.0 446.0 -0.4 Indiana .......: 182.0 184.0 998.0 1,016.0 1.8 Iowa ..........: 211.0 211.0 1,188.0 1,231.0 3.6 Kansas ........: 143.0 146.0 779.0 819.0 5.1 Kentucky ......: 60.0 55.0 249.0 231.0 -7.2 Louisiana .....: 13.0 12.0 37.0 33.0 -10.8 Maine .........: 30.0 30.0 151.0 158.0 4.6 Maryland ......: 48.0 47.0 239.0 229.0 -4.2 : Massachusetts .: 12.0 11.5 54.0 53.0 -1.9 Michigan ......: 410.0 421.0 2,591.0 2,726.0 5.2 Minnesota .....: 460.0 462.0 2,358.0 2,391.0 1.4 Mississippi ...: 10.5 9.5 31.0 30.0 -3.2 Missouri ......: 88.0 88.0 324.0 324.0 - Montana .......: 14.0 14.0 75.0 74.0 -1.3 Nebraska ......: 57.0 60.0 323.0 344.0 6.5 Nevada ........: 29.0 30.0 173.0 166.0 -4.0 New Hampshire .: 14.0 13.5 70.0 70.0 - New Jersey ....: 7.0 6.5 31.0 29.0 -6.5 : New Mexico ....: 323.0 316.0 1,941.0 1,935.0 -0.3 New York ......: 619.0 620.0 3,576.0 3,729.0 4.3 North Carolina : 46.0 45.0 235.0 226.0 -3.8 North Dakota ..: 16.0 16.0 84.0 87.0 3.6 Ohio ..........: 266.0 265.0 1,379.0 1,372.0 -0.5 Oklahoma ......: 38.0 36.0 166.0 155.0 -6.6 Oregon ........: 123.0 125.0 638.0 651.0 2.0 Pennsylvania ..: 530.0 529.0 2,674.0 2,684.0 0.4 Rhode Island ..: 0.9 0.8 4.0 3.5 -12.5 South Carolina : 15.0 14.5 58.0 55.0 -5.2 : South Dakota ..: 107.0 115.0 605.0 638.0 5.5 Tennessee .....: 43.0 41.0 172.0 159.0 -7.6 Texas .........: 462.0 483.0 2,507.0 2,680.0 6.9 Utah ..........: 96.0 92.0 564.0 541.0 -4.1 Vermont .......: 132.0 130.0 667.0 677.0 1.5 Virginia ......: 91.0 89.0 432.0 412.0 -4.6 Washington ....: 276.0 275.0 1,662.0 1,683.0 1.3 West Virginia .: 8.5 8.0 34.0 31.0 -8.8 Wisconsin .....: 1,280.0 1,278.0 7,352.0 7,551.0 2.7 Wyoming .......: 6.0 6.0 35.0 35.1 0.3 : United States .: 9,315.0 9,336.0 51,685.0 52,585.0 1.7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Represents zero. 1/ Excludes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, milk per cow, and number of milk cows are subject to revision the following month after initial publication for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, administrative data from Federal Market Orders, State Departments of Agriculture, or other sources are the main basis for revisions. However, administrative data for all States may not be available in time for these revisions. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk production estimates over the past 20 quarters is 0.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 52.6 billion pounds by more than 0.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.2 percent. Reliability of Quarterly Milk Production Estimates [Based on data for the past 20 quarters] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Quarters : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 -------- ----- number ----- : : Milk production ..............: 0.1 0.2 53 2 141 17 3 : All milk cows ................: 0.0 0.1 3 0 8 14 3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ........... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (202) 720-3240 Doug Bounds - Hogs and Pigs .................. (202) 720-3106 David Colwell - Sheep and Goats .............. (202) 720-8784 Donnie Fike - Dairy Products ................. (202) 690-3236 Michael Klamm - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ....... (202) 720-3040 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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