Milk Production ISSN: 1949-1557 Released March 19, 2020, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). February Milk Production up 5.6 Percent Milk production in the 24 major States during February totaled 17.0 billion pounds, up 5.6 Percent from February 2019. However, adjusting production for the additional day due to leap year causes February milk production to be up 2.0 percent on a per day basis. January revised production, at 18.0 billion pounds, was up 1.5 percent from January 2019. The January revision represented an increase of 38 million pounds or 0.2 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 24 major States averaged 1,927 pounds for February, 94 pounds above February 2019. When production is adjusted for the additional day due to leap year, February production per cow is 27 pounds above February 2019 on a per day basis. The number of milk cows on farms in the 24 major States was 8.84 million head, 39,000 head more than February 2019, and 8,000 head more than January 2020. February Milk Production in the United States up 5.3 Percent Milk production in the United States during February totaled 17.9 billion pounds, up 5.3 percent from February 2019. Production per cow in the United States averaged 1,907 pounds for February, 93 pounds above February 2019. The number of milk cows on farms in the United States was 9.37 million head, 18,000 head more than February 2019, and 9,000 head more than January 2020. Milk Cows and Production by Quarter - United States: 2019-2020 [May not add due to rounding. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2019 : 2020 : 2019 : 2020 : 2019 : 2020 : from : : : : : : : 2019 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head --- pounds -- million pounds percent : January-March ...: 9,346 5,823 54,423 April-June ......: 9,331 5,971 55,716 July-September ..: 9,322 5,818 54,237 October-December : 9,345 5,779 54,006 : Annual ..........: 9,336 23,391 218,382 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production by Month - 24 Selected States: 2019-2020 [May not add due to rounding. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2019 : 2020 : 2019 : 2020 : 2019 : 2020 : from : : : : : : : 2019 :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : January .......: 8,805 8,834 2,010 2,033 17,699 17,956 1.5 February ......: 8,803 8,842 1,833 1,927 16,132 17,038 5.6 March .........: 8,789 2,038 17,916 April .........: 8,788 1,996 17,544 May ...........: 8,790 2,063 18,137 June ..........: 8,784 1,974 17,342 July ..........: 8,785 1,997 17,542 August ........: 8,789 1,984 17,439 September .....: 8,805 1,908 16,796 October .......: 8,819 1,962 17,299 November ......: 8,817 1,894 16,699 December ......: 8,816 1,987 17,517 : Annual ........: 8,799 23,646 208,062 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production by Month - United States: 2019-2020 [May not add due to rounding. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2019 : 2020 : 2019 : 2020 : 2019 : 2020 : from : : : : : : : 2019 :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : January .......: 9,354 9,361 1,990 2,011 18,612 18,825 1.1 February ......: 9,352 9,370 1,814 1,907 16,966 17,865 5.3 March .........: 9,333 2,019 18,845 April .........: 9,332 1,975 18,433 May ...........: 9,333 2,042 19,058 June ..........: 9,327 1,954 18,225 July ..........: 9,315 1,973 18,375 August ........: 9,318 1,960 18,267 September .....: 9,333 1,885 17,595 October .......: 9,347 1,940 18,135 November ......: 9,345 1,873 17,506 December ......: 9,343 1,966 18,365 : Annual ........: 9,336 23,391 218,382 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 24 Selected States: February 2019 and 2020 [May not add due to rounding] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ State :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change : 2019 : 2020 : 2019 : 2020 : 2019 : 2020 : from : : : : : : : 2019 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : Arizona .........: 202 196 1,960 2,075 396 407 2.8 California ......: 1,726 1,723 1,860 1,980 3,210 3,412 6.3 Colorado ........: 182 193 1,990 2,090 362 403 11.3 Florida .........: 116 116 1,700 1,785 197 207 5.1 Georgia .........: 82 82 1,800 1,880 148 154 4.1 Idaho ...........: 618 645 1,875 1,965 1,159 1,267 9.3 Illinois ........: 85 82 1,690 1,770 144 145 0.7 Indiana .........: 181 176 1,770 1,870 320 329 2.8 Iowa ............: 220 215 1,890 1,965 416 422 1.4 Kansas ..........: 163 169 1,795 1,895 293 320 9.2 : Michigan ........: 424 427 2,055 2,135 871 912 4.7 Minnesota .......: 450 445 1,700 1,785 765 794 3.8 New Mexico ......: 322 333 1,970 2,025 634 674 6.3 New York ........: 627 626 1,840 1,945 1,154 1,218 5.5 Ohio ............: 253 253 1,660 1,760 420 445 6.0 Oregon ..........: 124 127 1,595 1,645 198 209 5.6 Pennsylvania ....: 500 483 1,605 1,725 803 833 3.7 South Dakota ....: 124 128 1,725 1,815 214 232 8.4 Texas ...........: 553 585 1,910 2,000 1,056 1,170 10.8 Utah ............: 99 96 1,755 1,810 174 174 - : Vermont .........: 126 124 1,665 1,725 210 214 1.9 Virginia ........: 78 76 1,545 1,670 121 127 5.0 Washington ......: 278 282 1,815 1,930 505 544 7.7 Wisconsin .......: 1,270 1,260 1,860 1,925 2,362 2,426 2.7 : 24-State Total ..: 8,803 8,842 1,833 1,927 16,132 17,038 5.6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Represents zero. 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 24 Selected States: January 2019 and 2020 [May not add due to rounding] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change : 2019 : 2020 : 2019 : 2020 : 2019 : 2020 : from : : : : : : : 2019 :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : Arizona .......: 204 193 2,095 2,135 427 412 -3.5 California ....: 1,728 1,724 2,030 2,045 3,508 3,526 0.5 Colorado ......: 180 191 2,210 2,210 398 422 6.0 Florida .......: 116 116 1,810 1,850 210 215 2.4 Georgia .......: 82 82 1,940 1,965 159 161 1.3 Idaho .........: 617 645 2,080 2,090 1,283 1,348 5.1 Illinois ......: 85 82 1,825 1,870 155 153 -1.3 Indiana .......: 181 176 1,950 1,970 353 347 -1.7 Iowa ..........: 220 215 2,085 2,100 459 452 -1.5 Kansas ........: 162 169 1,975 2,035 320 344 7.5 : Michigan ......: 424 427 2,260 2,280 958 974 1.7 Minnesota .....: 450 445 1,885 1,890 848 841 -0.8 New Mexico ....: 324 333 2,130 2,135 690 711 3.0 New York ......: 627 625 2,015 2,065 1,263 1,291 2.2 Ohio ..........: 253 253 1,805 1,855 457 469 2.6 Oregon ........: 126 127 1,760 1,735 222 220 -0.9 Pennsylvania ..: 500 480 1,745 1,805 873 866 -0.8 South Dakota ..: 124 128 1,925 1,950 239 250 4.6 Texas .........: 548 585 2,065 2,145 1,132 1,255 10.9 Utah ..........: 100 96 1,935 1,905 194 183 -5.7 : Vermont .......: 126 124 1,825 1,840 230 228 -0.9 Virginia ......: 78 76 1,690 1,765 132 134 1.5 Washington ....: 280 282 2,045 2,045 573 577 0.7 Wisconsin .....: 1,270 1,260 2,060 2,045 2,616 2,577 -1.5 : 24-State Total : 8,805 8,834 2,010 2,033 17,699 17,956 1.5 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies such as Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) Dairy Market News. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January Cattle Survey. Estimation Procedures: Regional Field Offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, milk per cow, and number of milk cows are subject to revision the following month after initial publication for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, administrative data from Federal Market Orders, State Departments of Agriculture, or other sources are the main basis for revisions. However, administrative data for all States may not be available in time for these revisions. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table below. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the 24 State milk production estimates over the past 24 months is 0.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 17.0 billion pounds by more than 0.2 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.3 percent. Reliability of Monthly Milk Production Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ----- number ----- : : Milk production ..............: 0.2 0.3 26 0 82 15 6 : All Milk cows ................: 0.1 0.2 8 0 23 18 3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@usda.gov. Travis Averill, Chief, Livestock Branch ......... (202) 692-0069 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (202) 690-8632 Holly Brenize - Sheep and Goats .............. (202) 720-0585 Heidi Lanouette - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ..... (202) 720-3040 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Suzanne Richards - Dairy Products ............ (202) 720-4448 Seth Riggins - Hogs and Pigs ................. (202) 720-3106 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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