Milk Production ISSN: 1949-1557 Released December 18, 2019, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). November Milk Production up 0.9 Percent Milk production in the 24 major States during November totaled 16.7 billion pounds, up 0.9 percent from November 2018. October revised production, at 17.2 billion pounds, was up 1.4 percent from October 2018. The October revision represented a decrease of 60 million pounds or 0.3 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 24 major States averaged 1,892 pounds for November, 16 pounds above November 2018. The number of milk cows on farms in the 24 major States was 8.81 million head, 8,000 head more than November 2018, but unchanged from October 2019. November Milk Production in the United States up 0.5 Percent Milk production in the United States during November totaled 17.4 billion pounds, up 0.5 percent from November 2018. Production per cow in the United States averaged 1,869 pounds for November, 15 pounds above November 2018. The number of milk cows on farms in the United States was 9.33 million head, 27,000 head less than November 2018, but unchanged from October 2019. Milk Cows and Production by Quarter - United States: 2018-2019 [May not add due to rounding. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : from : : : : : : : 2018 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head ---- pounds ---- million pounds percent : January-March ...: 9,435 9,344 5,766 5,827 54,399 54,450 0.1 April-June ......: 9,418 9,327 5,928 5,980 55,831 55,778 -0.1 July-September ..: 9,383 9,319 5,752 5,823 53,969 54,268 0.6 October-December : 9,359 5,703 53,376 : Annual ..........: 9,399 23,149 217,575 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production by Month - 24 Selected States: 2018-2019 [May not add due to rounding. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : from : : : : : : : 2018 :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : January .......: 8,856 8,805 1,973 2,009 17,469 17,685 1.2 February ......: 8,855 8,805 1,817 1,834 16,086 16,148 0.4 March .........: 8,849 8,788 2,033 2,041 17,994 17,940 -0.3 April .........: 8,844 8,788 1,976 1,999 17,475 17,570 0.5 May ...........: 8,848 8,790 2,051 2,064 18,151 18,146 - June ..........: 8,840 8,777 1,961 1,979 17,336 17,374 0.2 July ..........: 8,829 8,779 1,977 1,995 17,454 17,518 0.4 August ........: 8,826 8,789 1,968 1,987 17,372 17,466 0.5 September .....: 8,807 8,801 1,880 1,913 16,561 16,836 1.7 October .......: 8,807 8,810 1,931 1,957 17,005 17,239 1.4 November ......: 8,802 8,810 1,876 1,892 16,514 16,666 0.9 December ......: 8,798 1,964 17,282 : Annual ........: 8,830 23,407 206,699 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ - Represents zero. 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production by Month - United States: 2018-2019 [May not add due to rounding. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : from : : : : : : : 2018 :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : January .......: 9,438 9,352 1,953 1,989 18,437 18,600 0.9 February ......: 9,436 9,350 1,799 1,816 16,973 16,981 - March .........: 9,430 9,330 2,014 2,022 18,989 18,869 -0.6 April .........: 9,418 9,330 1,955 1,978 18,412 18,458 0.2 May ...........: 9,422 9,332 2,030 2,043 19,131 19,064 -0.4 June ..........: 9,414 9,319 1,943 1,959 18,288 18,256 -0.2 July ..........: 9,392 9,319 1,952 1,970 18,329 18,355 0.1 August ........: 9,389 9,317 1,943 1,963 18,245 18,290 0.2 September .....: 9,368 9,322 1,857 1,890 17,395 17,623 1.3 October .......: 9,367 9,331 1,908 1,934 17,873 18,045 1.0 November ......: 9,358 9,331 1,854 1,869 17,348 17,440 0.5 December ......: 9,353 1,941 18,155 : Annual ........: 9,399 23,149 217,575 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ - Represents zero. 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 24 Selected States: November 2018 and 2019 [May not add due to rounding] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ State :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : from : : : : : : : 2018 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : Arizona .........: 205 193 1,920 1,910 394 369 -6.3 California ......: 1,731 1,725 1,890 1,910 3,272 3,295 0.7 Colorado ........: 178 190 2,090 2,095 372 398 7.0 Florida .........: 118 118 1,540 1,575 182 186 2.2 Georgia .........: 81 81 1,730 1,755 140 142 1.4 Idaho ...........: 612 631 1,995 1,995 1,221 1,259 3.1 Illinois ........: 85 81 1,660 1,670 141 135 -4.3 Indiana .........: 181 175 1,810 1,825 328 319 -2.7 Iowa ............: 220 217 1,965 1,965 432 426 -1.4 Kansas ..........: 160 164 1,890 1,910 302 313 3.6 : Michigan ........: 422 428 2,120 2,125 895 910 1.7 Minnesota .......: 451 446 1,750 1,790 789 798 1.1 New Mexico ......: 326 331 1,950 1,965 636 650 2.2 New York ........: 623 626 1,910 1,940 1,190 1,214 2.0 Ohio ............: 253 252 1,710 1,730 433 436 0.7 Oregon ..........: 125 126 1,655 1,675 207 211 1.9 Pennsylvania ....: 509 485 1,610 1,665 819 808 -1.3 South Dakota ....: 122 127 1,820 1,825 222 232 4.5 Texas ...........: 542 572 1,890 1,915 1,024 1,095 6.9 Utah ............: 100 98 1,870 1,875 187 184 -1.6 : Vermont .........: 126 125 1,690 1,710 213 214 0.5 Virginia ........: 80 73 1,555 1,610 124 118 -4.8 Washington ......: 280 281 1,935 1,935 542 544 0.4 Wisconsin .......: 1,272 1,265 1,925 1,905 2,449 2,410 -1.6 : 24-State Total ..: 8,802 8,810 1,876 1,892 16,514 16,666 0.9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 24 Selected States: October 2018 and 2019 [May not add due to rounding] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : from : : : : : : : 2018 :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : Arizona .......: 205 193 1,910 1,900 392 367 -6.4 California ....: 1,732 1,725 1,915 1,940 3,317 3,347 0.9 Colorado ......: 178 190 2,165 2,160 385 410 6.5 Florida .......: 118 118 1,440 1,515 170 179 5.3 Georgia .......: 81 81 1,670 1,715 135 139 3.0 Idaho .........: 610 631 2,100 2,095 1,281 1,322 3.2 Illinois ......: 86 81 1,675 1,690 144 137 -4.9 Indiana .......: 182 175 1,870 1,885 340 330 -2.9 Iowa ..........: 220 217 2,025 2,025 446 439 -1.6 Kansas ........: 160 164 1,925 1,975 308 324 5.2 : Michigan ......: 422 428 2,195 2,230 926 954 3.0 Minnesota .....: 451 447 1,810 1,850 816 827 1.3 New Mexico ....: 327 329 2,015 2,050 659 674 2.3 New York ......: 621 626 1,995 2,015 1,239 1,261 1.8 Ohio ..........: 256 252 1,750 1,790 448 451 0.7 Oregon ........: 124 126 1,725 1,745 214 220 2.8 Pennsylvania ..: 515 485 1,665 1,705 857 827 -3.5 South Dakota ..: 121 127 1,885 1,890 228 240 5.3 Texas .........: 540 571 1,935 2,000 1,045 1,142 9.3 Utah ..........: 100 98 1,935 1,945 194 191 -1.5 : Vermont .......: 126 125 1,760 1,785 222 223 0.5 Virginia ......: 80 73 1,595 1,625 128 119 -7.0 Washington ....: 279 281 2,045 2,025 571 569 -0.4 Wisconsin .....: 1,273 1,267 1,995 2,010 2,540 2,547 0.3 : 24-State Total : 8,807 8,810 1,931 1,957 17,005 17,239 1.4 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies such as Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) Dairy Market News. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January Cattle Survey. Estimation Procedures: Regional Field Offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, milk per cow, and number of milk cows are subject to revision the following month after initial publication for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, administrative data from Federal Market Orders, State Departments of Agriculture, or other sources are the main basis for revisions. However, administrative data for all States may not be available in time for these revisions. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table below. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the 24 State milk production estimates over the past 22 months is 0.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 16.7 billion pounds by more than 0.2 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.3 percent. Reliability of Monthly Milk Production Estimates [Based on data for the past 22 months. 24-State data not available prior to 2018] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ----- number ----- : : Milk production ..............: 0.2 0.3 22 2 60 16 6 : All Milk cows ................: 0.2 0.3 10 0 31 17 3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@usda.gov. Travis Averill, Chief, Livestock Branch ......... (202) 692-0069 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (202) 690-8632 Holly Brenize - Sheep and Goats .............. (202) 720-0585 Donnie Fike - Dairy Products ................. (202) 720-4448 Heidi Lanouette - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ..... (202) 720-3040 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Seth Riggins - Hogs and Pigs ................. (202) 720-3106 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. To set-up this free subscription, visit www.nass.usda.gov and click on "National" or "State" in upper right corner above "search" box to create an account and select the reports you would like to receive. Cornell's Mann Library has launched a new website housing NASS's and other agency's archived reports. The new website, https://usda.library.cornell.edu. All email subscriptions containing reports will be sent from the new website, https://usda.library.cornell.edu. To continue receiving the reports via e-mail, you will have to go to the new website, create a new account and re-subscribe to the reports. If you need instructions to set up an account or subscribe, they are located at: https://usda.library.cornell.edu/help. You should whitelist notifications@usda-esmis.library.cornell.edu in your email client to avoid the emails going into spam/junk folders. For more information on NASS surveys and reports, call the NASS Agricultural Statistics Hotline at (800) 727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: nass@nass.usda.gov. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination against its customers, employees, and applicants for employment on the basis of race, color, national origin, age, disability, sex, gender identity, religion, reprisal, and where applicable, political beliefs, marital status, familial or parental status, sexual orientation, or all or part of an individual's income is derived from any public assistance program, or protected genetic information in employment or in any program or activity conducted or funded by the Department. (Not all prohibited bases will apply to all programs and/or employment activities.) If you wish to file a Civil Rights program complaint of discrimination, complete the USDA Program Discrimination Complaint Form (PDF), found online at www.ascr.usda.gov/filing-program-discrimination-complaint-usda-customer, or at any USDA office, or call (866) 632-9992 to request the form. You may also write a letter containing all of the information requested in the form. Send your completed complaint form or letter to us by mail at U.S. Department of Agriculture, Director, Office of Adjudication, 1400 Independence Avenue, S.W., Washington, D.C. 20250-9410, by fax (202) 690-7442 or email at program.intake@usda.gov.