Milk Production ISSN: 1949-1557 Released March 20, 2018, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). February Milk Production up 1.8 Percent Milk production in the 23 major States during February totaled 15.9 billion pounds, up 1.8 percent from February 2017. January revised production, at 17.3 billion pounds, was up 1.8 percent from January 2017. The January revision represented an increase of 9 million pounds or 0.1 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,822 pounds for February, 23 pounds above February 2017. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.75 million head, 49,000 head more than February 2017, and 1,000 head more than January 2018. February Milk Production in the United States up 1.8 Percent Milk production in the United States during February totaled 17.0 billion pounds, up 1.8 percent from February 2017. Production per cow in the United States averaged 1,807 pounds for February, 24 pounds above February 2017. The number of milk cows on farms in the United States was 9.41 million head, 45,000 head more than February 2017, and 1,000 head more than January 2018. Milk Cows and Production by Quarter - United States: 2017-2018 [May not add due to rounding. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2017 : 2018 : 2017 : 2018 : 2017 : 2018 : from : : : : : : : 2017 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head --- pounds -- million pounds percent : January-March ...: 9,369 5,717 53,562 April-June ......: 9,399 5,888 55,344 July-September ..: 9,402 5,687 53,473 October-December : 9,398 5,649 53,087 : Annual ..........: 9,392 22,941 215,466 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production by Month - 23 Selected States: 2017-2018 [May not add due to rounding. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2017 : 2018 : 2017 : 2018 : 2017 : 2018 : from : : : : : : : 2017 :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : January .......: 8,691 8,744 1,955 1,979 16,993 17,302 1.8 February ......: 8,696 8,745 1,799 1,822 15,645 15,934 1.8 March .........: 8,714 2,016 17,564 April .........: 8,722 1,972 17,200 May ...........: 8,730 2,037 17,783 June ..........: 8,733 1,941 16,947 July ..........: 8,734 1,972 17,224 August ........: 8,741 1,946 17,014 September .....: 8,737 1,850 16,162 October .......: 8,731 1,914 16,710 November ......: 8,734 1,859 16,235 December ......: 8,736 1,943 16,978 : Annual ........: 8,725 23,204 202,455 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production by Month - United States: 2017-2018 [May not add due to rounding. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2017 : 2018 : 2017 : 2018 : 2017 : 2018 : from : : : : : : : 2017 :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : January .......: 9,359 9,409 1,937 1,962 18,128 18,459 1.8 February ......: 9,365 9,410 1,783 1,807 16,694 17,000 1.8 March .........: 9,383 1,997 18,740 April .........: 9,392 1,952 18,332 May ...........: 9,401 2,016 18,952 June ..........: 9,404 1,920 18,060 July ..........: 9,404 1,943 18,268 August ........: 9,404 1,919 18,049 September .....: 9,399 1,825 17,156 October .......: 9,395 1,891 17,769 November ......: 9,398 1,837 17,260 December ......: 9,400 1,921 18,058 : Annual ........: 9,392 22,941 215,466 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 23 Selected States: February 2017 and 2018 [May not add due to rounding] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ State :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change : 2017 : 2018 : 2017 : 2018 : 2017 : 2018 : from : : : : : : : 2017 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : Arizona .........: 200 206 2,050 2,040 410 420 2.4 California ......: 1,755 1,738 1,780 1,860 3,124 3,233 3.5 Colorado ........: 156 168 2,005 2,005 313 337 7.7 Florida .........: 123 124 1,730 1,670 213 207 -2.8 Idaho ...........: 596 605 1,800 1,860 1,073 1,125 4.8 Illinois ........: 93 93 1,640 1,650 153 153 - Indiana .........: 186 187 1,780 1,780 331 333 0.6 Iowa ............: 216 220 1,830 1,825 395 402 1.8 Kansas ..........: 151 155 1,805 1,845 273 286 4.8 Michigan ........: 425 428 2,030 2,035 863 871 0.9 : Minnesota .......: 460 455 1,660 1,670 764 760 -0.5 New Mexico ......: 325 334 1,960 1,970 637 658 3.3 New York ........: 621 625 1,860 1,805 1,155 1,128 -2.3 Ohio ............: 262 262 1,640 1,630 430 427 -0.7 Oregon ..........: 124 124 1,555 1,565 193 194 0.5 Pennsylvania ....: 525 525 1,635 1,640 858 861 0.3 South Dakota ....: 117 118 1,715 1,705 201 201 - Texas ...........: 499 515 1,860 1,900 928 979 5.5 Utah ............: 92 97 1,730 1,755 159 170 6.9 Vermont .........: 129 128 1,645 1,625 212 208 -1.9 : Virginia ........: 87 87 1,585 1,570 138 137 -0.7 Washington ......: 274 276 1,795 1,850 492 511 3.9 Wisconsin .......: 1,280 1,275 1,820 1,830 2,330 2,333 0.1 : 23-State Total ..: 8,696 8,745 1,799 1,822 15,645 15,934 1.8 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Represents zero. 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 23 Selected States: January 2017 and 2018 [May not add due to rounding] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change : 2017 : 2018 : 2017 : 2018 : 2017 : 2018 : from : : : : : : : 2017 :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : Arizona .......: 198 205 2,145 2,165 425 444 4.5 California ....: 1,755 1,738 1,945 2,005 3,413 3,485 2.1 Colorado ......: 155 168 2,175 2,220 337 373 10.7 Florida .......: 122 124 1,850 1,775 226 220 -2.7 Idaho .........: 600 605 1,995 2,055 1,197 1,243 3.8 Illinois ......: 93 93 1,765 1,800 164 167 1.8 Indiana .......: 186 187 1,930 1,945 359 364 1.4 Iowa ..........: 215 220 2,000 2,015 430 443 3.0 Kansas ........: 151 154 1,935 1,985 292 306 4.8 Michigan ......: 425 428 2,190 2,190 931 937 0.6 : Minnesota .....: 460 455 1,805 1,835 830 835 0.6 New Mexico ....: 325 334 2,090 2,135 679 713 5.0 New York ......: 621 625 2,030 1,955 1,261 1,222 -3.1 Ohio ..........: 262 262 1,790 1,770 469 464 -1.1 Oregon ........: 124 124 1,685 1,695 209 210 0.5 Pennsylvania ..: 525 525 1,765 1,770 927 929 0.2 South Dakota ..: 117 119 1,880 1,855 220 221 0.5 Texas .........: 494 515 2,015 2,045 995 1,053 5.8 Utah ..........: 92 97 1,905 1,945 175 189 8.0 Vermont .......: 129 128 1,805 1,780 233 228 -2.1 : Virginia ......: 87 87 1,700 1,700 148 148 - Washington ....: 275 276 1,960 2,020 539 558 3.5 Wisconsin .....: 1,280 1,275 1,980 2,000 2,534 2,550 0.6 : 23-State Total : 8,691 8,744 1,955 1,979 16,993 17,302 1.8 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Represents zero. 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies such as Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) Dairy Market News. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January Cattle Survey. Estimation Procedures: Regional Field Offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, milk per cow, and number of milk cows are subject to revision the following month after initial publication for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, administrative data from Federal Market Orders, State Departments of Agriculture, or other sources are the main basis for revisions. However, administrative data for all States may not be available in time for these revisions. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table below. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the 23 State milk production estimates over the past 24 months is 0.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 15.9 billion pounds by more than 0.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.2 percent. Reliability of Monthly Milk Production Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ----- number ----- : : Milk production ..............: 0.1 0.2 18 1 48 16 8 : All Milk cows ................: 0.1 0.1 4 0 10 13 10 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov. Travis Averill, Chief, Livestock Branch ......... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (202) 720-3240 Holly Brenize - Sheep and Goats .............. (202) 720-0585 Donnie Fike - Dairy Products ................. (202) 690-3236 Heidi Gleich - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ........ (202) 720-3040 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Seth Riggins - Hogs and Pigs ................. (202) 720-3106 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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