Milk Production ISSN: 1949-1557 Released November 19, 2018, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). October Milk Production up 1.0 Percent Milk production in the 23 major States during October totaled 16.9 billion pounds, up 1.0 percent from October 2017. September revised production, at 16.4 billion pounds, was up 1.5 percent from September 2017. The September revision represented a decrease of 2 million pounds or less than 0.1 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,934 pounds for October, 20 pounds above October 2017. This is the highest production per cow for the month of October since the 23 State series began in 2003. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.72 million head, 8,000 head less than October 2017, and 1,000 head less than September 2018. October Milk Production in the United States up 0.8 Percent Milk production in the United States during October totaled 17.9 billion pounds, up 0.8 percent from October 2017. Production per cow in the United States averaged 1,912 pounds for October, 21 pounds above October 2017. The number of milk cows on farms in the United States was 9.37 million head, 30,000 head less than October 2017, and 2,000 head less than September 2018. Milk Cows and Production by Quarter - United States: 2017-2018 [May not add due to rounding. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2017 : 2018 : 2017 : 2018 : 2017 : 2018 : from : : : : : : : 2017 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head ---- pounds ---- million pounds percent : January-March ...: 9,369 9,406 5,717 5,780 53,562 54,367 1.5 April-June ......: 9,399 9,402 5,888 5,936 55,344 55,808 0.8 July-September ..: 9,402 9,375 5,687 5,756 53,473 53,964 0.9 October-December : 9,398 5,649 53,087 : Annual ..........: 9,392 22,941 215,466 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production by Month - 23 Selected States: 2017-2018 [May not add due to rounding. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2017 : 2018 : 2017 : 2018 : 2017 : 2018 : from : : : : : : : 2017 :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : January .......: 8,691 8,744 1,955 1,979 16,993 17,302 1.8 February ......: 8,696 8,745 1,799 1,821 15,645 15,922 1.8 March .........: 8,714 8,738 2,016 2,038 17,564 17,812 1.4 April .........: 8,722 8,738 1,972 1,979 17,200 17,294 0.5 May ...........: 8,730 8,745 2,037 2,056 17,783 17,976 1.1 June ..........: 8,733 8,743 1,941 1,969 16,947 17,214 1.6 July ..........: 8,734 8,734 1,972 1,982 17,224 17,315 0.5 August ........: 8,741 8,736 1,946 1,973 17,014 17,235 1.3 September .....: 8,737 8,724 1,850 1,880 16,162 16,403 1.5 October .......: 8,731 8,723 1,914 1,934 16,710 16,874 1.0 November ......: 8,734 1,859 16,235 December ......: 8,736 1,943 16,978 : Annual ........: 8,725 23,204 202,455 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production by Month - United States: 2017-2018 [May not add due to rounding. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2017 : 2018 : 2017 : 2018 : 2017 : 2018 : from : : : : : : : 2017 :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : January .......: 9,359 9,408 1,937 1,959 18,128 18,431 1.7 February ......: 9,365 9,408 1,783 1,803 16,694 16,961 1.6 March .........: 9,383 9,401 1,997 2,018 18,740 18,975 1.3 April .........: 9,392 9,400 1,952 1,956 18,332 18,390 0.3 May ...........: 9,401 9,404 2,016 2,033 18,952 19,114 0.9 June ..........: 9,404 9,402 1,920 1,947 18,060 18,304 1.4 July ..........: 9,404 9,378 1,943 1,955 18,268 18,338 0.4 August ........: 9,404 9,379 1,919 1,946 18,049 18,252 1.1 September .....: 9,399 9,367 1,825 1,855 17,156 17,374 1.3 October .......: 9,395 9,365 1,891 1,912 17,769 17,905 0.8 November ......: 9,398 1,837 17,260 December ......: 9,400 1,921 18,058 : Annual ........: 9,392 22,941 215,466 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 23 Selected States: October 2017 and 2018 [May not add due to rounding] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ State :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change : 2017 : 2018 : 2017 : 2018 : 2017 : 2018 : from : : : : : : : 2017 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : Arizona .........: 205 204 1,910 1,905 392 389 -0.8 California ......: 1,743 1,733 1,870 1,940 3,259 3,362 3.2 Colorado ........: 163 179 2,175 2,185 355 391 10.1 Florida .........: 124 118 1,460 1,450 181 171 -5.5 Idaho ...........: 600 607 2,045 2,065 1,227 1,253 2.1 Illinois ........: 93 90 1,680 1,660 156 149 -4.5 Indiana .........: 187 182 1,910 1,870 357 340 -4.8 Iowa ............: 219 220 1,995 1,965 437 432 -1.1 Kansas ..........: 152 161 1,935 1,940 294 312 6.1 Michigan ........: 428 422 2,185 2,195 935 926 -1.0 : Minnesota .......: 457 451 1,790 1,805 818 814 -0.5 New Mexico ......: 329 327 2,000 2,015 658 659 0.2 New York ........: 624 621 1,980 2,010 1,236 1,248 1.0 Ohio ............: 264 254 1,745 1,740 461 442 -4.1 Oregon ..........: 123 122 1,700 1,715 209 209 - Pennsylvania ....: 525 516 1,700 1,665 893 859 -3.8 South Dakota ....: 117 121 1,870 1,885 219 228 4.1 Texas ...........: 515 539 1,890 1,940 973 1,046 7.5 Utah ............: 97 100 1,930 1,935 187 194 3.7 Vermont .........: 128 126 1,765 1,760 226 222 -1.8 : Virginia ........: 87 80 1,630 1,590 142 127 -10.6 Washington ......: 274 277 1,995 2,025 547 561 2.6 Wisconsin .......: 1,277 1,273 1,995 1,995 2,548 2,540 -0.3 : 23-State Total ..: 8,731 8,723 1,914 1,934 16,710 16,874 1.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Represents zero. 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 23 Selected States: September 2017 and 2018 [May not add due to rounding] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change : 2017 : 2018 : 2017 : 2018 : 2017 : 2018 : from : : : : : : : 2017 :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : Arizona .......: 205 204 1,820 1,760 373 359 -3.8 California ....: 1,745 1,733 1,760 1,860 3,071 3,223 4.9 Colorado ......: 162 177 2,135 2,125 346 376 8.7 Florida .......: 123 118 1,400 1,375 172 162 -5.8 Idaho .........: 603 607 2,025 2,040 1,221 1,238 1.4 Illinois ......: 93 90 1,600 1,575 149 142 -4.7 Indiana .......: 187 183 1,820 1,760 340 322 -5.3 Iowa ..........: 219 220 1,915 1,880 419 414 -1.2 Kansas ........: 152 160 1,880 1,870 286 299 4.5 Michigan ......: 428 422 2,100 2,115 899 893 -0.7 : Minnesota .....: 457 451 1,740 1,770 795 798 0.4 New Mexico ....: 331 327 1,965 2,005 650 656 0.9 New York ......: 624 621 1,925 1,950 1,201 1,211 0.8 Ohio ..........: 264 255 1,710 1,660 451 423 -6.2 Oregon ........: 123 122 1,675 1,690 206 206 - Pennsylvania ..: 525 517 1,655 1,610 869 832 -4.3 South Dakota ..: 118 121 1,820 1,840 215 223 3.7 Texas .........: 515 539 1,855 1,930 955 1,040 8.9 Utah ..........: 97 100 1,910 1,920 185 192 3.8 Vermont .......: 128 126 1,710 1,720 219 217 -0.9 : Virginia ......: 87 81 1,580 1,520 137 123 -10.2 Washington ....: 274 277 1,965 1,995 538 553 2.8 Wisconsin .....: 1,277 1,273 1,930 1,965 2,465 2,501 1.5 : 23-State Total : 8,737 8,724 1,850 1,880 16,162 16,403 1.5 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Represents zero. 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies such as Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) Dairy Market News. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January Cattle Survey. Estimation Procedures: Regional Field Offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, milk per cow, and number of milk cows are subject to revision the following month after initial publication for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, administrative data from Federal Market Orders, State Departments of Agriculture, or other sources are the main basis for revisions. However, administrative data for all States may not be available in time for these revisions. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table below. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the 23 State milk production estimates over the past 24 months is 0.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 16.9 billion pounds by more than 0.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.2 percent. Reliability of Monthly Milk Production Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ----- number ----- : : Milk production ..............: 0.1 0.2 20 2 48 14 10 : All Milk cows ................: 0.0 0.1 3 0 9 13 8 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov. Travis Averill, Chief, Livestock Branch ......... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (202) 690-8632 Holly Brenize - Sheep and Goats .............. (202) 720-0585 Donnie Fike - Dairy Products ................. (202) 720-4448 Heidi Gleich - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ........ (202) 720-3040 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Seth Riggins - Hogs and Pigs ................. (202) 720-3106 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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