Milk Production ISSN: 1949-1557 Released August 20, 2018, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). July Milk Production up 0.4 Percent Milk production in the 23 major States during July totaled 17.3 billion pounds, up 0.4 percent from July 2017. June revised production, at 17.2 billion pounds, was up 1.6 percent from June 2017. The June revision represented an increase of 40 million pounds or 0.2 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,980 pounds for July, 8 pounds above July 2017. This is the highest production per cow for the month of July since the 23 State series began in 2003. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.74 million head, 1,000 head more than July 2017, but 8,000 head less than June 2018. July Milk Production in the United States up 0.4 Percent Milk production in the United States during July totaled 18.4 billion pounds, up 0.4 percent from July 2017. Production per cow in the United States averaged 1,953 pounds for July, 10 pounds above July 2017. The number of milk cows on farms in the United States was 9.40 million head, 8,000 head less than July 2017, and 8,000 head less than June 2018. Milk Cows and Production by Quarter - United States: 2017-2018 [May not add due to rounding. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2017 : 2018 : 2017 : 2018 : 2017 : 2018 : from : : : : : : : 2017 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head ---- pounds ---- million pounds percent : January-March ...: 9,369 9,406 5,717 5,780 53,562 54,367 1.5 April-June ......: 9,399 9,403 5,888 5,937 55,344 55,830 0.9 July-September ..: 9,402 5,687 53,473 October-December : 9,398 5,649 53,087 : Annual ..........: 9,392 22,941 215,466 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production by Month - 23 Selected States: 2017-2018 [May not add due to rounding. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2017 : 2018 : 2017 : 2018 : 2017 : 2018 : from : : : : : : : 2017 :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : January .......: 8,691 8,744 1,955 1,979 16,993 17,302 1.8 February ......: 8,696 8,745 1,799 1,821 15,645 15,922 1.8 March .........: 8,714 8,738 2,016 2,038 17,564 17,812 1.4 April .........: 8,722 8,738 1,972 1,979 17,200 17,294 0.5 May ...........: 8,730 8,745 2,037 2,056 17,783 17,976 1.1 June ..........: 8,733 8,743 1,941 1,969 16,947 17,214 1.6 July ..........: 8,734 8,735 1,972 1,980 17,224 17,299 0.4 August ........: 8,741 1,946 17,014 September .....: 8,737 1,850 16,162 October .......: 8,731 1,914 16,710 November ......: 8,734 1,859 16,235 December ......: 8,736 1,943 16,978 : Annual ........: 8,725 23,204 202,455 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production by Month - United States: 2017-2018 [May not add due to rounding. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2017 : 2018 : 2017 : 2018 : 2017 : 2018 : from : : : : : : : 2017 :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : January .......: 9,359 9,408 1,937 1,959 18,128 18,431 1.7 February ......: 9,365 9,408 1,783 1,803 16,694 16,961 1.6 March .........: 9,383 9,401 1,997 2,018 18,740 18,975 1.3 April .........: 9,392 9,400 1,952 1,957 18,332 18,397 0.4 May ...........: 9,401 9,404 2,016 2,033 18,952 19,123 0.9 June ..........: 9,404 9,404 1,920 1,947 18,060 18,310 1.4 July ..........: 9,404 9,396 1,943 1,953 18,268 18,350 0.4 August ........: 9,404 1,919 18,049 September .....: 9,399 1,825 17,156 October .......: 9,395 1,891 17,769 November ......: 9,398 1,837 17,260 December ......: 9,400 1,921 18,058 : Annual ........: 9,392 22,941 215,466 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 23 Selected States: July 2017 and 2018 [May not add due to rounding] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ State :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change : 2017 : 2018 : 2017 : 2018 : 2017 : 2018 : from : : : : : : : 2017 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : Arizona .........: 204 206 1,975 1,955 403 403 - California ......: 1,747 1,735 1,930 1,895 3,372 3,288 -2.5 Colorado ........: 160 175 2,255 2,245 361 393 8.9 Florida .........: 124 120 1,645 1,600 204 192 -5.9 Idaho ...........: 601 607 2,160 2,155 1,298 1,308 0.8 Illinois ........: 93 93 1,690 1,680 157 156 -0.6 Indiana .........: 187 185 1,870 1,890 350 350 - Iowa ............: 217 220 2,005 2,015 435 443 1.8 Kansas ..........: 151 159 1,920 1,960 290 312 7.6 Michigan ........: 427 423 2,255 2,255 963 954 -0.9 : Minnesota .......: 458 452 1,835 1,855 840 838 -0.2 New Mexico ......: 332 328 2,125 2,135 706 700 -0.8 New York ........: 624 622 2,045 2,065 1,276 1,284 0.6 Ohio ............: 262 257 1,790 1,820 469 468 -0.2 Oregon ..........: 124 121 1,755 1,775 218 215 -1.4 Pennsylvania ....: 525 520 1,730 1,735 908 902 -0.7 South Dakota ....: 118 122 1,905 1,910 225 233 3.6 Texas ...........: 515 530 1,990 2,075 1,025 1,100 7.3 Utah ............: 96 100 2,030 2,045 195 205 5.1 Vermont .........: 129 126 1,800 1,785 232 225 -3.0 : Virginia ........: 87 83 1,605 1,600 140 133 -5.0 Washington ......: 275 277 2,070 2,090 569 579 1.8 Wisconsin .......: 1,278 1,274 2,025 2,055 2,588 2,618 1.2 : 23-State Total ..: 8,734 8,735 1,972 1,980 17,224 17,299 0.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Represents zero. 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 23 Selected States: June 2017 and 2018 [May not add due to rounding] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change : 2017 : 2018 : 2017 : 2018 : 2017 : 2018 : from : : : : : : : 2017 :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : Arizona .......: 204 206 2,080 2,065 424 425 0.2 California ....: 1,749 1,735 1,880 1,905 3,288 3,305 0.5 Colorado ......: 160 176 2,170 2,170 347 382 10.1 Florida .......: 124 121 1,725 1,660 214 201 -6.1 Idaho .........: 601 607 2,090 2,090 1,256 1,269 1.0 Illinois ......: 93 93 1,720 1,720 160 160 - Indiana .......: 187 186 1,905 1,905 356 354 -0.6 Iowa ..........: 217 220 1,975 1,975 429 435 1.4 Kansas ........: 151 159 1,865 1,935 282 308 9.2 Michigan ......: 427 423 2,220 2,245 948 950 0.2 : Minnesota .....: 458 453 1,805 1,830 827 829 0.2 New Mexico ....: 332 332 2,095 2,125 696 706 1.4 New York ......: 624 623 2,010 2,050 1,254 1,277 1.8 Ohio ..........: 262 257 1,785 1,815 468 466 -0.4 Oregon ........: 124 121 1,740 1,750 216 212 -1.9 Pennsylvania ..: 525 521 1,725 1,735 906 904 -0.2 South Dakota ..: 118 122 1,840 1,875 217 229 5.5 Texas .........: 515 526 1,975 2,060 1,017 1,084 6.6 Utah ..........: 95 100 2,000 2,020 190 202 6.3 Vermont .......: 129 127 1,765 1,785 228 227 -0.4 : Virginia ......: 87 84 1,625 1,610 141 135 -4.3 Washington ....: 273 277 2,025 2,050 553 568 2.7 Wisconsin .....: 1,278 1,274 1,980 2,030 2,530 2,586 2.2 : 23-State Total : 8,733 8,743 1,941 1,969 16,947 17,214 1.6 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Represents zero. 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies such as Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) Dairy Market News. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January Cattle Survey. Estimation Procedures: Regional Field Offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, milk per cow, and number of milk cows are subject to revision the following month after initial publication for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, administrative data from Federal Market Orders, State Departments of Agriculture, or other sources are the main basis for revisions. However, administrative data for all States may not be available in time for these revisions. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table below. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the 23 State milk production estimates over the past 24 months is 0.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 17.3 billion pounds by more than 0.2 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.3 percent. Reliability of Monthly Milk Production Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ----- number ----- : : Milk production ..............: 0.2 0.3 21 2 48 15 9 : All Milk cows ................: 0.1 0.1 4 0 10 14 8 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov. Travis Averill, Chief, Livestock Branch ......... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (202) 690-8632 Holly Brenize - Sheep and Goats .............. (202) 720-0585 Donnie Fike - Dairy Products ................. (202) 720-4448 Heidi Gleich - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ........ (202) 720-3040 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Seth Riggins - Hogs and Pigs ................. (202) 720-3106 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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