Aquaculture Outlook
Economic Research Service LDP-AQS-1
U.S. Department of Agriculture March 15, 1995
Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
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Higher Catfish Production in 1995
Based on January 1 grower inventories, catfish production is expected to
expand 5-7 percent in 1995. In 1994, catfish production fell 4 percent to
439.3 million pounds, the first decline since 1975, as growers cut back
stocking and feeding levels due to low farm prices in 1993.
The January 1 grower-held inventories for food-size catfish, which will be
marketed in first-half 1995, were estimated at 202 million fish, up 7 percent
from last year. The increased volume is expected to lower farm and wholesale
prices slightly from a year earlier.
Production and prices during the second half of 1995 will depend on how fast
the stockers and fingerlings held by growers on January 1 will be brought to
market size. With farm prices still averaging around 77-78 cents a pound,
and feed costs lower, growers have an incentive to feed fish at maximum
rates. While catfish competes chiefly with other fish species, large red
meat and poultry supplies are likely to depress seafood prices in general.
But continued economic growth should boost consumer purchasing power,
supporting prices.
Farm Prices Lower in 1995
First quarter 1995 prices are likely to average 1-2 cents above a year
earlier as supplies will still be relatively tight due to increased buying
for the Lenten season. However, as supplies increase prices are expected to
fall slightly in the second quarter and remain below 1994 for the remainder
of 1995.
Expectations of a second consecutive year of profitability are likely to
encourage growers to expand their operations by constructing more ponds or
more heavily stocking ponds already in production. Both actions would lead
to higher production, but most of the impact would not come until 1996.
Higher grower returns last year also left many growers in better shape to
finance an expansion.
Catfish Acreage Increasing
The January U.S. catfish grower's survey indicated 155,415 acres of ponds
were in production, up 1 percent from a year earlier and reversing 2 years of
declines. Almost all the increase was in Mississippi. However, acreage is
still down considerably from the peak of 166,160 acres in July 1991. The
survey also indicated that nearly 7,400 acres of ponds are either being
rebuilt or under construction.
The long-term trend shows concentration into fewer, but larger farms.
However, the high farm prices for catfish in 1994 attracted a number of new
entries to the industry. The average farm size in Mississippi fell by almost
20 acres last year, to 323 acres.
After falling for the last 2 years, broodfish inventories were up 10 percent,
according to growers. In Mississippi, broodfish inventories rose 39 percent.
Most of the price impact from the larger supplies will likely occur in 1996,
when the fish hatched this year reach market size.
Farmer Sales Higher in 1995
Farmer sales to processing plants in 1995 are forecast between 460 and 470
million pounds, up 5-7 percent from 1994. Much of the increase may occur in
the second half as available supplies increase. Processing in January 1995
was up 6 percent from the previous year, but is expected to slow in the
second quarter as the Lenten period ends.
After a record farm price of 78.4 cents a pound in 1994, prices in 1995 are
forecast to moderate. With supplies still relatively tight, first-quarter
prices are expected to average above the previous year. However, later in
the year food-size catfish supplies should expand putting some downward
pressure on prices.
Higher sales volume to processors is expected to offset a reduction in the
average price received by farmers. Farm prices are expected to average
between 72 and 76 cents a pound in 1995, yielding gross farm revenues ranging
from $330 to $360 million, about the same as in 1994.
Processors' Sales Up in 1995
Rising farm-level prices pushed prices for processed products up 9 percent in
1994 to a record $2.39 a pound and processors' revenues to a record $516
million. Processor sales in 1995 are expected to again be strong as sales
expand and prices decline only mildly.
Over the second half of 1994, processors gradually built up inventories of
frozen product. Ending stocks for 1994 were 10.6 million pounds, up 21
percent from the previous year. Large freezer stocks should limit farm price
advances in the first quarter despite relatively tight farm supplies.
Sales of Value Added Products to Increase
The mix of sales products has been changing over time. Increased dependence
on sales to institutions and restaurants has led to the development of more
value-added products. Sales of whole and filleted product fell in 1994,
while sales of "other" products (catfish nuggets, strips, etc.) increased
slightly.
Prices for "other" catfish products recorded only small gains in 1994, while
whole and fillet prices had double-digit increases. The "other" catfish
products likely are competing with a range of value-added meat and poultry
products. This makes their prices more vulnerable to fluctuations in red
meat and poultry prices.
Tilapia Imports Increase
The tilapia market is apparently continuing the rapid expansion of the last 2
years. Imports in 1994 totaled 32.1 million pounds, approximately the same
as imports of fresh Pacific salmon. The large increase occurred without
large declines in prices.
The U.S. Tilapia Growers Association estimated U.S. production at 15 million
pounds in 1994, with continued growth expected for 1995. Future growth in
U.S. tilapia production likely will depend on the ability of growers to
compete with imported tilapia in the processed fish market. Previously, many
growers focused their production on the live fish market, since import
requirements and high costs restricted live fish importation. While the live
fish market continues to expand, much of the anticipated growth in tilapia
sales will be for processed products.
Most U.S. production will come from tank systems using recirculated water,
due to tilapia's need for warm water. A number of these systems are
currently in production, but their future use will depend on improving the
efficiency of the water filtration processes and reducing water heating
costs.
All categories of tilapia imports rose in 1994, but about half of the
increase was in the frozen fillet market, which rose 280 percent. In 1992
and 1993, imports of frozen tilapia fillets were dominated by product from
Thailand and Indonesia. However, in 1994, Taiwan became the major supplier
accounting for 66 percent of the total. The average price of frozen fillets
from Taiwan was $0.75 a pound, compared with $1.75 a pound from Thailand and
Indonesia.
Tilapia imports are forecast to continue to grow in 1995 and into 1996.
While domestic tilapia production is expected to expand, growers will
continue to concentrate chiefly on the live fish market, with only a handful
of the largest producers marketing processed products.
Salmon Production Steady in 1994, Imports Higher
Domestic salmon production was around 26 million pounds in 1994, about even
with the previous year. An increase reported by the Washington Salmon
Growers Association offset a decline in Maine's production, as reported by
the Maine Department of Marine Resources. Maine's production of Atlantic
salmon fell as the smolt class for 1994 was smaller and growers were hit with
both disease and weather problems last winter. Grower inventories in both
States indicate that production will be higher in 1995.
In 1994, U.S. imports of Atlantic salmon were up 9 percent to 68 million
pounds. Canada and Chile remained the chief suppliers. World production of
farmed salmon in 1994 is estimated at 500,000 metric tons, about equal to the
wild harvest in Alaska. Seafood Leader, an industry magazine, reported that
Norway is the largest producer with a 1994 harvest of 210,000 tons.
Even with higher domestic production and imports, fresh Atlantic salmon
prices remained steady in 1994. Normally, Atlantic salmon prices drop in the
third and fourth quarter due to the influx of large quantities of wild
salmon. Undoubtedly, the strength of the U.S. economy during 1994,
especially in the second half of the year, played a large part in the price
strength. A growing economy bolsters the restaurant trade, a prime outlet
for salmon products. Although innovations in salmon farming continue to
reduce production costs, retail prices for salmon fillets and steaks are
still normally above all but the most expensive cuts of red meat.
While the U.S. supply of farm-raised salmon continues to expand, the wild
catch is still the largest component of the domestic salmon supply. Wild
harvests of salmon, almost exclusively from Alaska, were at or near record
levels in 1993 and 1994. Even though a large percentage of the salmon
harvest is exported or canned, sales of wild salmon products continue to
affect prices of farm-raised products.
Imports of farmed Atlantic salmon are forecast to expand again in 1995 due to
projections for small increases in domestic farmed production and decreases
in the wild harvest from Alaska. The exchange rate with Canada continues to
be depressed, making Canadian farmed salmon relatively cheaper. Also,
Japan's economy is strengthening and Japan is expected to be a larger buyer
of wild salmon from Alaska.
Shrimp Imports and Prices Higher in 1994
Shrimp are by far the most valuable seafood import, worth $2.7 billion in
1994. Shrimp imports are approaching 50 percent of all edible seafood
imports. In 1995, shrimp imports should again increase in quantity as long
as the domestic economy remains strong. Prices are expected to decline from
their relatively high 1994 levels as farmed production expands, especially in
Southeast Asia.
Over the last two years, U.S. shrimp imports from China have declined
substantially, due to wide scale disease problems that have greatly lowered
their farm-raised shrimp production. World shrimp prices have risen,
benefitting all nations that farm shrimp or harvest them wild. The drop in
U.S. imports from China have been offset by increases from Mexico, Thailand,
India, and Bangladesh.
Thailand's shrimp exports to the United States rose 20 percent in quantity
and 40 percent in value to just under $1 billion in 1994. Continued growth
in Thailand's farm-raised shrimp industry has made it the world's largest
producer. With the addition of shrimp to its other seafood products,
Thailand is now the world's largest seafood exporter.
Mexico has also benefited, with 1994 exports to the United States growing 12
percent in quantity. India and Bangladesh both have farm-raised shrimp
industries, but the majority of production currently comes from their wild
harvests. This situation is rapidly changing in India, where a large
percentage of its long coastline is well suited for shrimp culture.
Developing New Aquaculture Industries
Due to the near collapse in the stocks of cod and halibut and a number of
other species the U.S. and Canadian governments have imposed severe
harvesting cutbacks in the Georges Bank fishing area of the northern
Atlantic. As a result, the United States and Canada have placed increased
priority on cultivating these species. Potential benefits include a source
of jobs for displaced fishermen and replenishment of the wild stocks. The
effort is not without precedent, as a large portion of the salmon harvest in
Alaska is based on the release of hatchery reared smolts. Norway, probably
the leader in this area, has been investigating halibut production for
several years and is beginning to develop commercial farm-raised halibut and
cod industries.
Crawfish Imports Double
The Louisiana crawfish industry continues to be pressured by rising imports
of crawfish meat from China. China first began exporting crawfish meat to
the United States in 1991. By 1994, shipments had risen to 1.6 million
pounds, valued at $3.8 million. As shipments increased, the average price
fell. In 1994, import prices for Chinese crawfish meat were only $2.39 a
pound, well below reported production costs for Louisiana packers. While
imports do not directly compete with the live market, they depress the
average price paid for all crawfish, including frozen products.
Oyster Sales Strong
U.S. growers are benefiting from steady growth in oyster consumption in Asia
and the reputed high quality of U.S. oysters. Exports of oysters reached
$6.9 million in 1994, up over 180 percent from 1991. The majority of the
growth has come from higher exports to Japan and Taiwan, but Canada is also a
steadily expanding market. As in the ornamental fish market, the decline in
the dollar against many Asian currencies is expected to further boost exports
in 1995.
Due to the long growth period for oysters, producers have not been able to
increase production to meet the export expansion of the last 2 years. While
growers are optimistic about higher export demand in 1995, they are cautious
about expanding production until they are certain these markets will continue
in the long term.
Ornamental Fish Imports and Exports Expand
Although most of the interest in aquaculture has been devoted to food
production, the markets for ornamental fish, domestic and export, continue to
expand. U.S. ornamental fish growers exported $18.9 million of fish in 1994,
up 8 percent from 1993 and the fourth consecutive year that exports have
risen.
The top five markets for U.S. ornamental fish are Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong,
Canada and Mexico. The weakness in the Canadian dollar and the economic
uncertainties in Mexico are expected to lower exports to those markets in
1995. The recent decline in the value of the U.S. dollar to the yen is
expected to aid sales of U.S. products to Japan and other Asian nations.
The import market for ornamental fish is also increasing rapidly, totaling
$46.8 million in 1994. Even though the United States imports ornamental fish
from over 60 countries, the top ten countries, mainly in Asia and South
America, account for 88 percent of the market.
Quantity and value of U.S. exports of selected seafood products
Commodity 1991 1992 1993 1994
Exports $1,000
Ornamental fish 12,746 16,455 17,366 18,867
Trout, live 1,383 992 976 1,636
Trout, fresh & frozen 2,653 2,873 3,233 3,475
Atlantic salmon, fresh 1,647 4,920 11,203 3,649
Pacific salmon, fresh 1/ 29,502 46,871 36,765 40,305
Atlantic salmon, frozen 290 956 1,049 1,193
Pacific salmon, frozen 1/ 359,818 594,794 485,488 476,910
Canned & pre. salmon 2/ 135,146 171,939 162,261 163,687
Shrimp, frozen 64,134 66,382 61,806 55,258
Shrimp, fresh & pre. 3/ 44,611 49,653 48,500 52,998
Oysters 4/ 2,397 2,781 3,514 6,892
Mussels 5/ 1,864 2,657 2,802 2,115
Clams 6/ 7,037 6,699 6,284 5,779
1,000 lb.
Ornamental fish 0 0 0 0
Trout, live 0 0 0 0
Trout, fresh & frozen 1,626 1,766 1,846 1,958
Atlantic salmon, fresh 473 1,396 4,018 1,184
Pacific salmon, fresh 1/ 14,879 20,655 24,275 22,483
Atlantic salmon, frozen 123 406 373 384
Pacific salmon, frozen 1/ 196,668 240,072 257,751 260,469
Canned & pre. salmon 2/ 67,188 85,788 85,226 90,393
Shrimp, frozen 14,980 18,082 16,524 13,622
Shrimp, fresh & pre. 3/ 12,864 14,692 14,315 15,778
Oysters 4/ 929 1,105 1,454 2,634
Mussels 5/ 1,665 2,317 2,291 1,935
Clams 6/ 4,405 4,999 4,217 3,785
1/ Also contains salmon with no specific species noted.
2/ Included smoked and cured
3/ Shrimp, canned, breaded or prepared.
4/ Oysters, fresh or prepared.
5/ Mussels, fresh or prepared. 6/ Clams, fresh or prepared.
Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce.
Quantity and value of U.S. imports of selected seafood products
Commodity 1991 1992 1993 1994
Imports $1,000
Ornamental fish 36,105 41,122 45,249 46,770
Trout, live 76 106 208 116
Trout, fresh & frozen 4,417 6,189 5,230 5,467
Atlantic salmon, fresh 107,912 125,857 155,196 169,708
Pacific salmon, fresh 1/ 113,411 76,682 59,951 54,899
Atlantic salmon, frozen 10,531 16,133 19,983 21,019
Pacific salmon, frozen 1/ 13,310 19,908 16,841 14,390
Canned & pre. salmon 2/ 16,350 14,449 13,138 16,849
Shrimp, frozen 1,713,992 1,882,286 1,998,302 2,459,708
Shrimp, fresh & pre. 3/ 142,676 135,162 171,288 224,128
Oysters 4/ 44,045 46,419 47,238 40,110
Mussels 5/ 7,090 7,619 8,661 13,178
Clams 6/ 6,758 6,935 6,822 9,936
Tilapia 7/ 6,029 18,029 25,586
1,000 lb.
Ornamental fish 0 0 0 0
Trout, live 0 0 0 0
Trout, fresh & frozen 3,867 6,197 4,741 3,878
Atlantic salmon, fresh 39,709 48,843 62,860 68,254
Pacific salmon, fresh 1/ 55,657 40,075 33,920 31,952
Atlantic salmon, frozen 3,687 5,302 7,714 7,851
Pacific salmon, frozen 1/ 8,751 10,199 11,659 11,210
Canned & pre. salmon 2/ 2,939 2,671 2,053 3,190
Shrimp, frozen 499,859 558,580 556,213 580,010
Shrimp, fresh & pre. 3/ 39,737 36,782 44,765 47,910
Oysters 4/ 17,914 16,800 17,293 15,415
Mussels 5/ 6,595 7,657 9,658 11,032
Clams 6/ 6,975 6,192 5,818 8,265
Tilapia 7/ 7,474 24,789 32,088
1/ Also contains salmon with no specific species noted.
2/ Included smoked and cured
3/ Shrimp, canned, breaded, or prepared.
4/ Oysters, fresh or prepared.
5/ Mussels, fresh or prepared. 6/ Clams, fresh or prepared.
7/ Frozen whole fish plus fresh and frozen fillets.
Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce.
Catfish: Inventory numbers, as of January 1
Broodfish
State 1992 1993 1994 1995
-- 1,000 --
Alabama 199 123 129 171
Arkansas 193 140 176 163
California 1/ 16 15 15
Florida 11 10 4 1/
Kentucky 4 7 1/ 1
Louisiana 55 45 85 41
Mississippi 717 704 580 804
Missouri 54 25 16 26
North Carolina 16 35 15 8
Oklahoma 11 8 50 8
South Carolina 146 9 62 1/
Tennesse 1/ 1/ 1/ 3
Texas 51 25 16 22
Other 2/ 34 22 35 39
Total 1,491 1,169 1,183 1,301
Fingerlings/fry
State 1992 1993 1994 1995
-- 1,000 --
Alabama 61,858 50,302 35,100 35,600
Arkansas 109,010 62,680 90,493 80,990
California 1/ 68,739 5,318 5,000
Florida 2,100 2,000 1,842 3,000
Kentucky 794 1,120 1/ 1/
Louisiana 90,000 17,565 23,250 31,300
Mississippi 541,552 425,506 460,948 533,275
Missouri 8,966 7,596 9,873 11,656
North Carolina 3,747 2,480 4,331 3,512
Oklahoma 5,050 750 1,585 1,590
South Carolina 7,160 1,732 4,493 3,578
Tennesse 1/ 4,401 1,165 1/
Texas 3,436 1,645 4,022 9,676
Other 2/ 15,739 22,975 6,208 5,516
Total 849,412 669,491 648,628 724,693
1/ Data not published separately to avoid
disclosing individual operations.
2/ Includes Georgia and Kansas.
Source: Catfish Growers Survey, NASS, USDA.
Catfish: Inventory numbers, as of January 1
Stockers
State 1992 1993 1994 1995
-- 1,000 --
Alabama 31,002 23,635 33,425 41,496
Arkansas 64,253 68,269 49,031 57,207
California 1/ 6,839 9,925 3,030
Florida 520 185 100 1/
Kentucky 544 355 1/ 1/
Louisiana 35,800 21,379 27,300 28,850
Mississippi 482,775 436,069 407,787 401,385
Missouri 7,250 4,565 11,209 1/
North Carolina 2,472 1,335 1,724 1,111
Oklahoma 931 512 1,595 1,493
South Carolina 2,077 1,375 2,570 2,477
Tennesse 1/ 1/ 1,047 1/
Texas 1,055 760 1,802 4,487
Other 2/ 5,674 5,976 692 12,806
Total 634,353 571,254 548,207 554,342
Small food-size
State 1992 1993 1994 1995
-- 1,000 --
Alabama 21,345 22,240 16,360 21,000
Arkansas 20,449 19,164 12,573 12,740
California 1/ 945 935 1,300
Florida 486 200 37 1/
Kentucky 103 210 58 1/
Louisiana 6,400 8,024 7,100 8,450
Mississippi 111,923 98,549 93,774 90,580
Missouri 556 1,055 1,158 578
North Carolina 1,937 923 1,070 1,097
Oklahoma 140 255 60 146
South Carolina 1,253 519 708 1,421
Tennesse 98 513 215 52
Texas 178 246 130 380
Other 2/ 1,863 757 136 416
Total 166,731 153,600 134,314 138,160
1/ Data not published separately to avoid
disclosing individual operations.
2/ Includes Georgia and Kansas.
Source: Catfish Growers Survey, NASS, USDA.
Catfish: Inventory numbers, as of January 1
Medium food-size
State 1992 1993 1994 1995
-- 1,000 --
Alabama 5,921 4,917 4,905 8,180
Arkansas 8,503 6,428 6,008 6,759
California 1/ 586 628 430
Florida 153 120 28 1/
Kentucky 110 70 42 90
Louisiana 3,800 3,845 2,600 5,800
Mississippi 48,473 43,692 32,284 35,892
Missouri 759 557 485 411
North Carolina 590 808 370 406
Oklahoma 200 132 120 105
South Carolina 249 173 887 687
Tennesse 109 99 171 135
Texas 328 205 189 195
Other 2/ 1,300 262 134 69
Total 70,495 61,894 48,851 59,159
Large food-size
State 1992 1993 1994 1995
-- 1,000 --
Alabama 386 572 326 527
Arkansas 974 1,166 1,001 566
California 1/ 72 222 110
Florida 42 100 15 1/
Kentucky 50 26 16 20
Louisiana 700 1,265 220 335
Mississippi 4,122 2,962 2,846 2,607
Missouri 50 74 108 111
North Carolina 108 102 167 52
Oklahoma 45 13 30 3
South Carolina 91 103 52 25
Tennesse 44 35 76 12
Texas 75 122 105 152
Other 2/ 82 86 12 16
Total 6,769 6,698 5,196 4,536
1/ Data not published separately to avoid
disclosing individual operations.
2/ Includes Georgia and Kansas.
Source: Catfish Growers Survey, NASS, USDA.
Catfish: Supply, sales, prices, and inventory
1994 1995
Item Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan.
Supply 1,000 lbs.
Grower sales 1/ 39,813 38,716 39,072 36,054 34,266 38,807
Processor sales 18,997 17,983 19,151 16,399 15,461 19,191
Fresh 7,432 7,327 7,374 6,482 6,317 7,273
Whole 3,122 3,179 3,197 2,878 2,862 3,221
Fillets 3,329 3,183 3,212 2,783 2,665 3,054
Other 981 965 965 821 790 998
Frozen 11,565 10,656 11,777 9,917 9,144 11,918
Whole 1,337 1,357 1,421 1,322 1,169 1,573
Fillets 6,809 6,267 6,689 5,739 5,311 6,614
Other 3,419 3,032 3,667 2,856 2,664 3,731
Processor invent 6,969 8,612 8,310 9,833 11,623 10,965
Fresh 976 1,044 984 802 1,011 738
Whole 352 376 317 243 184 262
Fillets 519 551 555 453 722 393
Other 105 117 112 106 105 83
Frozen 5,993 7,568 7,326 9,031 10,612 10,227
Whole 833 1,038 963 1,118 1,416 1,626
Fillets 2,720 3,645 3,690 4,964 5,975 5,863
Other 2,440 2,885 2,673 2,949 3,221 2,738
Prices Dollars per pound
Farm price 3/ 0.80 0.80 0.77 0.77 0.77 0.78
Processor prices 2.46 2.42 2.37 2.39 2.37 2.35
Fresh 2.31 2.27 2.27 2.25 2.21 2.21
Whole 1.76 1.72 1.72 1.70 1.66 1.69
Fillets 2.94 2.93 2.93 2.91 2.91 2.89
Other 1.95 1.92 1.89 1.91 1.87 1.82
Frozen 2.56 2.53 2.43 2.48 2.48 2.43
Whole 2.03 2.05 2.06 2.02 2.01 1.98
Fillets 2.94 2.90 2.87 2.88 2.85 2.83
Other 2.01 1.97 1.78 1.90 1.95 1.91
1/ Total live weight of fish delivered for processing.
2/ Inventory at end of reporting period.
3/ Live weight.
Source: NASS, USDA