Turkey Hatchery ISSN: 1949-1964 Released December 16, 2020, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Eggs in Incubators on December 1 Up 2 Percent from Last Year Turkey eggs in incubators on December 1, 2020 in the United States totaled 26.9 million, up 2 percent from December 1, 2019. Eggs in incubators were up 1 percent from the November 1, 2020 total of 26.8 million eggs. Poults Hatched During November Down 1 Percent from Last Year Turkey poults hatched during November 2020 in the United States totaled 22.2 million, down 1 percent from November 2019. Poults hatched were down 5 percent from the October 2020 total of 23.3 million poults. Net Poults Placed During November Down 1 Percent from Last Year The 20.0 million net poults placed during November 2020 in the United States were down 1 percent from the number placed during the same month a year earlier. Net poult placements were down 1 percent from the October 2020 total of 20.1 million. Eggs in Incubators and Poults Hatched by Month - United States: 2019-2021 [Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ :Eggs in incubators first of month: Percent of :Poults hatched entire month: Percent of Month :---------------------------------: :---------------------------: : 2019-2020 : 2020-2021 :previous year: 2019-2020 : 2020-2021 :previous year ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : ------ 1,000 eggs ----- percent --- 1,000 poults --- percent : September ........: 26,666 25,990 97 22,464 21,840 97 October ..........: 29,327 27,293 93 24,905 23,290 94 November .........: 26,958 26,764 99 22,325 22,197 99 December .........: 26,464 26,910 102 22,655 January ..........: 28,820 23,879 February .........: 28,209 22,566 March ............: 27,980 23,729 April ............: 27,922 23,461 May ..............: 27,274 21,562 June .............: 28,540 23,940 July .............: 27,718 23,759 August ...........: 27,158 22,509 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Net Poult Placements by Month - United States: 2019-2021 [Includes imports and excludes exports. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Total all breeds : Percent of : Cumulative total : Percent of Month :---------------------------------: :---------------------------: : 2019-2020 : 2020-2021 :previous year: 2019-2020 : 2020-2021 :previous year ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : ----- 1,000 poults ---- percent --- 1,000 poults --- percent : September ........: 20,125 19,141 95 20,125 19,141 95 October ..........: 21,857 20,114 92 41,982 39,255 94 November .........: 20,199 20,012 99 62,181 59,267 95 December .........: 20,216 82,397 January ..........: 21,414 103,811 February .........: 20,663 124,474 March ............: 21,741 146,215 April ............: 22,053 168,268 May ..............: 19,559 187,827 June .............: 22,764 210,591 July .............: 23,013 233,604 August ...........: 21,014 254,618 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: Data for turkey hatchery estimates are collected from all known turkey hatcheries. Individual NASS regional field offices maintain a list of all known turkey hatcheries and use known sources of hatcheries to update their lists. Approximately 45 hatcheries in 20 states are contacted each month. All known turkey hatcheries hatching 15,000 or more poults annually are mailed a questionnaire as close to the first of the month as possible. Adequate time is given to respond via mail, fax, or electronic data reporting. Those that do not respond are contacted by phone. Care is exercised to ensure that all hatcheries are accounted for in the estimate. Estimating Procedures: Sound statistical methodology is employed to derive the estimates from reported data. All data are analyzed for unusual values. Data from each operation are compared to their own past operating profile and to trends from similar operations. Data for missing operations were estimated based on similar operations or historical data. NASS regional field offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications and historic trends. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Individual hatchery data are summed to State, regional, and United States totals. Only United States level estimates are published due to the limited number of hatcheries involved. The Net Poult Placement data include imported poults and exclude exported poults. Cumulative net poult placements beginning on September 1 and ending on August 31 are shown in the monthly Turkey Hatchery report. This time period corresponds with the placements of poults which will reach maturity and be available for slaughter during the calendar year. Revision Policy: Revisions are generally the result of late or corrected data. Revisions to the previous month are published in the monthly Turkey Hatchery report, while annual revisions are published in the Hatchery Production - Annual Summary report in April. Reliability: Turkey hatchery estimates are based on a census of all known operating hatcheries and therefore, have no sampling error. However, estimates are subject to errors such as omission, duplication, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. While these errors cannot be measured directly, they are minimized through strict quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for turkey eggs in incubators on the first day of the month over the past 24 months is 2.4 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 26.9 million eggs by more than 2.4 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 4.2 percent. Reliability of December Turkey Hatchery Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate :square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------ Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :--------------------------- : : :Average :Smallest:Largest :Below latest :Above latest ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ---- number ---- : Eggs in incubators ................: 2.4 4.2 432 1 2,201 17 7 : Poults hatched ....................: 1.8 3.1 225 0 1,913 11 12 : Net poult placements ..............: 2.4 4.1 328 0 1,884 18 5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@usda.gov Travis Averill, Chief, Livestock Branch ..................................... (202) 692-0069 Tony Dorn, Head, Poultry and Specialty Commodities Section .................. (202) 690-3223 Holly Brenize - Poultry Slaughter......................................... (202) 720-0585 Alissa Cowell-Mytar - Cold Storage, Capacity of Refrigerated Warehouses .. (202) 720-4751 Liana Cuffman - Catfish and Trout, Mink, Census of Aquaculture ........... (202) 720-8784 Fatema Haque - Turkey Hatchery, Turkeys Raised ........................... (202) 720-3244 Derron Martin - Chicken Hatchery, Egg Products............................ (202) 690-3237 Adam Peters - Honey, Honey Bee Colonies .................................. (202) 690-4870 Autumn Stone - Layers, Eggs .............................................. (202) 690-3676 Takiyah Walker - Broiler Hatchery......................................... 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